HD-DVD and Blu-ray peace talks are dead

Not that we were holding out much hope at this point, but the peace talks between the Blu-ray and HD-DVD camps are completely over, which means there is almost zero chance of them compromising on a unified high-capacity next-generation optical disc format. In other words we're facing another one of those incredibly lame VHS vs. Betamax format wars where pretty much everyone loses, especially consumers.

[Dennis - Help me fight for my son @ Dec 19th 2005 12:17AM]

I think HD-DVD should be the next gen media. The good reasoning being that everyone knows what DVD is. Everyone knows what HD is. Put it together, and you have great recognision and more acceptable format. Blu-Ray doesn't do it for me, although being a techie I would know what it is.

[Vz @ Dec 19th 2005 12:17AM]

Well, I think it will be HD-DVD because of the hoardes of people who will just go:

"Oooh, DVD!! It's like DVD, but better! Surely it's better than Blu-ray cos it has DVD in the name! Yes...I will buy HD-DVD because I've had my normal DVDs for donkey years!"

[Galley @ Dec 19th 2005 12:17AM]

Blu-ray: 2 syllables
HD-DVD: 5 syllables

Blu-ray wins! ;-)

[Jay @ Dec 19th 2005 12:17AM]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't the capacity for HD-DVD like 15GB(single layer), whereas the capacity for Blu-Ray is somewhere along the lines of 25GB (single layer). It would make sense to go with the technology that offers more storage capacity wouldn't it?....my 2 cents

[Bruce @ Dec 19th 2005 12:17AM]

Holographic storage will win. Both Blu-Ray and HD-DVD will be the equivalent of Laserdisc.

[charlie @ Dec 19th 2005 12:17AM]

The issue is always cost... and thats why hd-dvd will win. It will have the support of the majority of the media houses. Yes, blu-ray is superior technology in some respects, but it also will cost a LOT more in terms of individual disks AND the blu-ray players. For the disks, entirely new manufacturing machines have to be bought and installed because blu-ray is completely different from DVD- it uses one plastic disk with the metal layer under it and an extremely thin spray of polymer for protection. HD-DVD is two plastic disks, just like dvd. The thinner polymer level is what allows blu-ray to hold more data... but its also why entirely new manufacturing processes and machinery would have to be built. hd-dvds can be built easily off of existing supply lines. The result is that blu-ray disks are expected to cost around $10 EACH when they debut on a large scale (although falling rapidly in price) while hd-dvds are expected to cost no more than 10% more than a dvd. To a producer, thats an extra $10 or so in his pocket.

And i dont see whats so bad about a format war... yeah some people might buy products from the format that loses support, but the idea is that the majority of people end up with the supported format and consumers as a whole are serviced much better as a result of the competition.

[Mikan @ Dec 19th 2005 12:17AM]

I'd rather have both fail (and go straight for the 200gb+ stuff) than have hd-dvd win. It's such a stop gap technology with no upside that we'll be replacing it within 5 years anyway.

[fLeShTwIsTeR @ Dec 19th 2005 12:17AM]

Blue-ray should be the logical step in advancing storage options. It can hold a lot more information. Just make the players compatible with current DVDs and we have a perfect solution!
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[Russbag @ Dec 19th 2005 12:17AM]

It's really going to depend on who ships what drives. If Apple and HP and Dell all put Blue Ray drives in their hardware, people will be looking for Blue Ray software. We have been through this the the DVD +/- stuff and it really came down to what format becomes most prevalent in the market place. I think Blue Ray has more PC makers in its camp and if you just get a Blue Ray drive with your next PC, you're going to want to use it.

[Anonymous-S @ Dec 19th 2005 12:17AM]

Being built into every Playstation 3 won't hurt Blu-Ray one bit. Even if Microsoft make serious inroads into their user base, Sony is still practically guaranteed a user base in the tens of millions within a couple of years of launch. Studios will have a hard time ignoring that...

[charlie @ Dec 19th 2005 12:17AM]

It should be interesting... but I have a feeling that the combined power of the majority of movie studios plus microsoft should allow hddvd to win. Its not such a bad thing. You'll still get you high quality 1080p video, and everything will be cheaper.

[Pete @ Dec 19th 2005 12:17AM]

I disagree with #6. This format war can lead to a big dissappointment for those who buy into the losing company. If Blu-Ray loses, then buying a PS3, blu-ray burner/optical drive for the computer, 25 pack of blu-ray+R discs, among other blu-ray accessories will have lost a large wad of money being that neither format is remotely close to having a player compatible with both hd formats. This does not benefit the consumer, it takes us back to when PS2 beat out the DreamCast, lots of consumers lost out on expensive merchandise, and for a short period, competition was non-existant. No competition is not in any way beneficial to the consumer, competition lowers costs.

Personally, I hope this format war ends up being like XBOX vs. PS2 (maybe even Apple vs. Microsoft) rather than Betamax vs. VHS, whereas neither format will reign supreme being that DVD came in and took over the market in a Monopoly. They needed a little competition seeing that they are completely reluctant to reduce the price of Dual Layered DVDs. I'm sure with Blu-Ray on the block, those discs will drop ln price. Although blu-ray is 'rumored' to cost more to produce, I'm sure the price can be negotiated seeing as they are in a competition, not a pride race. They will have to sell them for the same price as HD-DVD's or less to compete, otherwise they never stood a chance. No one honestly believes that Sony is investing in a format that doesn't have sense enough to fight this battle smart, right? You gotta think about these things people.

As for charlie's comment, we are serviced by the competetition, true. What we are not benefited by is the result of a monopoly, then they can blindfold the consumer while they rape them, even though it's not rape if you willingly accept it.

[Nobuyuki Idei @ Dec 19th 2005 12:17AM]

The compression artifacts on a 1920x1080p 3 hour movie are going to be horrifying on only 30GB.
HD-DVD just cannot beat Blu-Ray on video quality.

[Andrew Roazen @ Dec 19th 2005 12:17AM]

Interesting time for Apple. On the one hand they're strongly committed to Sony's Blu-Ray, and on the other they're refusing to go with Sony's iPod-hostile DRM.

I think Sony should consider who's worth pissing off in the long run; bean-counters in Accounting or the company most interested in promoting their technology with bundled Blu-Ray drives and bundled consumer-level authoring tools.

It's pretty clear at this point that the best technology doesn't always win, and if DVD pressers are being convinced by HD-DVD advocates that they can put off retooling for another five years by signing on with HD-DVD, the battle's already over.

So far, Apple has Sony to thank for diluting IBM's PPC R&D, fighting iTunes with DRM, and possibly sticking them with a dead next-gen DVD format.

Sony's major contributions to technology are proprietary video formats with expensive licensing agreements that killed their adoption, proprietary memory sticks that killed their Palm platform, DRM CDs, unpopular proprietary portable music players, and the 3.5" floppy disk.

Making great stuff is irrelevant if it doesn't play well with others, and doubly so if your company plays even worse with other companies. Sony could learn a few things from Apple's recent history.

"The enemy of my enemy is my friend" was a cute philosophy for a while, but those kinds of alliances tend to be short-lived and bite you on the butt if overextended.

[Andy @ Dec 19th 2005 12:17AM]

"In other words we�re facing another one of those incredibly lame VHS vs. Betamax format wars where pretty much everyone loses, especially consumers."

I've gotta disagree. The past month or so we've seen the two formatting busting their asses to outdo the other. We've heard about burners and all sorts of densities that we probably wouldn't have heard of for a while afterwards.

You know who benefits? The consumer, us. Now don't get me wrong, I think the format wars generally blow, but the fact that these guys are now competing is one good thing that comes from it. Bring on burnable discs!

[MrFloppy @ Dec 19th 2005 12:17AM]

HD-DVD: Less capacity, and no 1080p
I�ll pass.

Blu-Ray wins.

[hafa @ Dec 19th 2005 12:17AM]

Blu-Ray had me on their capacity.
At the beginning, 1.44 MB would seem enough, soon 100MB zip disc rule, 250MB came out right after, gradually the market is full of 700MB CDROM, and now we all use 4.37 DVD+/-R. See all these difference as time progresses? history shows that capacity improvements are almost ten fold, for my next long-term storage media, I'd expect such capacity improvements, not just 10 or 20 more GB on existing DVD technology, I want hundredth level jump, and blue-ray promises that.

[Peter Berghammer @ Dec 19th 2005 12:17AM]

Don't be too sure about this news items. The major players here are quite conservative, and both recent and upcoming changes to top level corporate management may well spell an additional round of talks.

That having been said, the simplest option still remains for the Blu-ray group to license the name HD-DVD. Just a thought, but potent none-the-less.

Most analytical work that has been done in this area vis-a-vis projecte sales numbers shows a few interesting results. This so-called format war promises to bolster both formats to the detriment of DVD; and a shakeout would not occur until 2007 for either Blu or HD. However, a scenario in which HD and Blu cooperate shows a much different scenario: with sales figures "eating" into DVD fairly rapidly.

It does seem that the claim that HD-DVD is cheaper to produce, but that may be a red-herring. When factors such as computer disc drives (ie storage) and the like are factored in - the longer term approach that Blu-ray offers is more appealing and cost effective.

The real enemy here though appears not to be hologaphy, but rather broadband.

[alienshards @ Dec 19th 2005 12:17AM]

if sony were smart, they'd drop the blu-ray thing. why? it's in PS3s. if they never make blu-ray burners, that means EVERY SINGLE PS3 GAME IS PIRATE PROOF.

that being said, i prefer HD DVD.

why? the disks cost less, at least in the begining.

some movies won't even take up the 15 gbs.

so, you can have an HD DVD version of a movie, or a same quality blu-ray version of a movie for a higher price.

a 20 buck movie disk, or a 30 buck movie disk...

[rayk @ Dec 19th 2005 12:17AM]

I think I would have to go with the Blu-Ray disks, the technology promised behind those is far more appealing then the HD DVD one.

I think what will happen is that this "war" will lead to Blu-ray disks been bumped in storage to out compete the HD DVD by using the marketing plot of "Look! We can hold more GB's! so we are better" Many people will bound fall for that instead of the familiar "DVD" term. After all the usuall consumer doesn't understand much, but when presented with figures tends to choose onse with biger numbers.

[Nick @ Dec 19th 2005 12:17AM]

I think all you Sony fanboys aren't looking too far into the future. For one, Sony is a movie studio also which means they can push their weight about and support their own format (like UMD, a disgrace of a format). I don't think it's fair for the consumer or the industry for one company to control the fate of a format. At least HD-DVD has somewhat of a consortium. HD-DVD doesn't carry as much capacity but it's sure worth it in price. In the end, I think what we will have is DVD players that have Blu-Ray and HD-DVD stickers on them, but the discs in the tray will be HD-DVD except those movies from Sony, of course.

[Andrew @ Dec 19th 2005 12:17AM]

I think no one would argue that from a purely technical point of view, Blu-Ray is the better format. Unfortunately, standards which are defined by consumer choice, and not by international standards organizations are rarely chosen on this trait. Cheap and accessible tend to be far more important. Also, as memory serves, Sony�s track record in the area of media standards pretty much blows...
Sony's Betamax vs VHS
Sony's Memory Stick vs SD
Sony's MiniDisc vs ??? (Sony did not even have a competitor on this one and they still lost)!

[Nicodemus @ Dec 19th 2005 12:17AM]

I believe that Phillips is in on this venture for Blu-ray and if I may I believe that Phillips believes in the liberal view that you should be able to back up your data and audio (what you own). I remember reading back that they were in consumer's favor in the war against macromedia and such to keep from the discs that only ran or burned a few times or once before rendered useless from hitting the market because it was an infringement upon their original purpose and development ideals. I would believe that since Phillips is also in development with Blu-ray that to not make a burner open to the public would be poppycock.

I don't believe in corporate bullcrap but I do see some interesting things from Phillips in their PR and ideals that makes me think less of them the evil empire, unlike alot of other companies... no names needed to be said.

[Darrell @ Dec 19th 2005 12:17AM]

I think Blue-Ray will eventually take with the Customer, being 25 Gig is a major plus side over HD. Computing Trends are for smaller faster cheaper more powerful System's. Blue-Ray will over time fit these requirement's HD will die a Death, remember Blue_Ray uses the lastest Technology to Read even smaller pits on the surface of a disk. This requirment will not be lost in future data storage! Even if it moves on to use hologram's.

[smiler @ Dec 19th 2005 12:17AM]

Well, for a start, I saw Blu-ray working last November. Up until these talks started, I hadn't even heard of HD-DVD! So, as far as I can see, Sony has a working system, which has been working for years now, and it's technically superior. Meanwhile, HD-DVD is just about making the headlines, and even then, only in the same breath as Blu-ray.

Sony have the technical know-how and experience to produce a working system. They've been in this for years - believe it or not, they did invent the CD (in partnership with Philips - another parallel). They'll get the players out and working to a very high standard in no time.
Now who's leading the HD-DVD camp? Thomson! When was the last time they produced a format, or a decent piece of hardware to play them on?!

There is a far more recent format war between these two teams that you've missed - SACD (Sony & Philips) vs. DVD-Audio. Again, SACD is the technically superior (both in labs and in listening tests) and also the most convenient. Where you can play most DVD-A discs in a DVD-V player, most SACD discs are hybrids - they work in CD players too. However, neither party has won this war - they're coexisting quite happily.

I think the most likely decider will be the console wars. Blu-ray is going to be built into the PS3 when its released. That's the quickest way to get players into homes, and most people might not even realise it until the Blu-ray films are available!
XBOX 360, however; MS are thinking about a future upgrade. Besides this, the PS3 is far superior to the XBOX 360, with an automatic PSX & PS2 games catalogue, and a larger fan base. Guess who'll win the console wars!

Whoever wins the console wars, will win the format wars. Oh, and btw - PS3 plays SACD too :).