No, that wasn't a typo. Dvorak thinks Apple is going to trash Mac OS X for Windows in what could be "the most phenomenal turnabout in the history of desktop computing," whatever that's supposed to mean (search for the article at PC Magazine, if you really want to read it). Most of his 'evidence' is based on claims that no one's switching over to the Mac, despite all of Apple's buzz over the last couple years and the (disputed) "iPod halo effect." Apparently, John didn't notice that Apple doubled its U.S. market share last year to 6.6%. While that isn't a monumental number, the fact that it doubled in barely a year is a significant factor I think John simply missed in what I'm sure was highly methodical research. Let's also not forget that Dell more or less asked Apple if they could sell OS X on their computers - what better way to cut down on customer service expenses?
The rest of his argument cites Apple dropping FireWire in the iPod, Apple's switch to Intel and the fact that large vendors like Adobe weren't ready when the new Intel machines landed. It seems that through his impeccable research, Dvorak also missed previous discussion about FireWire and its high-bandwidth, largely pro purpose, as well as the iPod's mass-market target. Let's also not forget that Adobe can't simply flip a switch and make CS hop over to the Intel side of the Mac CPU fence.
Poking holes in Dvorak's ideas aside, I'm starting to wonder if his articles are becoming not much more than thickly-veiled calls for help. Clearly, he's beginning to lose it, and I wonder if he's just having a hard time asking for the help he so clearly needs. Who's up for a "save John C. Dvorak" fund-raiser?
[thanks David Anasco. Image courtesy of John C. Dvorak's Wikipedia entry]