T-Mobile's G1 presales aren't "even close" to 1.5M

A source close to the situation has chimed in to tell us that T-Mobile's G1 presales -- while very strong, and seemingly making the carrier and HTC very happy campers -- are nowhere near the 1.5 million figure being randomly spouted off by Motley Fool. We don't have an exact figure, but to put things in perspective, it took 74 days of real, actual sales for Apple to hit a million iPhones -- which like the G1 numbers here, counted the US market alone. Real question is, what percentage of the presales have been for that crazy brown model, eh?

[cashmonee @ Oct 16th 2008 1:28PM]

Wait a minute. You mean that a blogger with no sources is wrong?! Shocking!

Perhaps one day engadget will check out stories before blindly posting them.

[fred @ Oct 16th 2008 1:34PM]

So what is the source for this story?

If the original was just so "obviously" wrong, what makes this one more credible?

[Ray @ Oct 16th 2008 1:39PM]

"If the original was just so "obviously" wrong, what makes this one more credible?"

The idea that the G1, which has only been renown by word of month, somehow managed to push 1.5 million pre sales more than 2weeks from launch. I wont be mad if its true, but i would be very surprised and those numbers have always seemed way out of proportion... and im no iStan, but apple spent a lot of time and money that google hasn't in hyping their new device.

... Non the less, i too find it odd that there are no sources for this article

[cashmonee @ Oct 16th 2008 1:42PM]

I'd say an unamed source is better than no source. Motley Fool pulled a number out of thin air and nobody questioned it.

Further, don't you think T-Mobile would have announced it if they had presold that many phones? Use some common sense.

[Joshua Topolsky @ Oct 16th 2008 1:45PM]

@fred @Ray -- We wouldn't have run a follow-up to the original if we didn't have good reason to. We know for a fact that this information is accurate. You can be as skeptical as you like -- a good dose of skepticism is always healthy -- but I can tell you that we're not just pulling this stuff out of thin air or from questionable sources.

[Mark Anderson @ Oct 16th 2008 2:27PM]

In fairness Motley Fool used to be pretty good.

Used to be. A long time ago.

[redringofdeath @ Oct 16th 2008 2:30PM]

It's about time this ridiculous rumor was laid to rest. I've been absolutely amazed by how this number has been tossed around without anyone bothering to question it. This is really an example of how most people, including the media, are completely ignorant of and unconcerned with the actual facts.

When I first read this 1.5 million sold bullshit I was immediately incredulous. Really? T-Mobile already destroyed their 2008 sales goal and far exceeded the iPhone's first two months of retail sales? And only with preorders for a device that is relatively unknown outside of tech circles? Wow.

I doubt HTC will even manufacture 1.5 million G1s in 2008.

[coffee @ Oct 16th 2008 3:16PM]

I didn't question it, being a tmo customer, I've been waiting so long for a decent phone (other than 15 flavors of blackberry), I just figured we all pre-ordered them.

[Gary @ Oct 16th 2008 3:54PM]

Honestly, did anyone believe that story?

Apple put so much into promoting the iPhone that it started to get annoying. Commercials every 5 minutes on almost every channel, news paper ads, internet ads, etc. And this is by a company that has a name with a lot of credit with most of your average consumers. Do you have any idea how many times I've heard people refer to an MP3 player as an iPod, no matter what brand it is?

Android, on the other hand, is a much smaller phone. I have yet to see a single advertisement outside of online news sites or t-mobile.com. No commercials, no news paper, no hype. This combined with the fact that T-Mobile is a much smaller carrier than AT&T (not bashing T-Mobile, I love them and will be switching for the G1, but it's true), that barely has a 3G network, and the 1.5 million number is pretty unbelievable.

I'm also writing this as someone with experience from anonymous sources such as this. Engadget can't say who it is, or they risk both losing their source and getting their source in some very deep trouble. I've worked for a news site, and have released multiple inside stories that I couldn't credit because of this. Don't disbelieve Engadget, they know what they're doing.

[Alan Strangis @ Oct 16th 2008 4:16PM]

WTF is redringof death Highly Ranked?

He 'doubts' the sales, even though T-Mobile US is ON RECORD as of Oct 3rd saying they had to triple their 500,000 initial order to fulfill both pre-order and launch day demands?

Of course, nobody's actually bothered to clarify what all that means...

[LondonConsultant @ Oct 16th 2008 4:22PM]

And I thought 1.5 billion of them had already been sold. Doh...

[Justin @ Oct 16th 2008 1:29PM]

Sounds like some negative hype from an iDiot.

Bring on Android for us all, and please Microsoft, release a WinMo7 to make us nerds proud.

[UnixSystemsEngineer @ Oct 16th 2008 8:49PM]

The 1.5M number was negative hype, or the story refuting it is negative hype? I fully believed the 1.5M number originally without doing any real sanity check, because I think we all want to see Android do well. But upon reflection, yeah, it was pretty absurd for everyone to accept without question.

Android may well make us nerds proud, and I want to see it do well, but WM7 simply will not.

The Windows annoyances are tolerable in a computer operating system, but downright insanity on a consumer smartphone. Just because it requires you to constantly screw with it to make it work properly does not make it a nerd toy, it just makes it a high maintenance PITA. The reason you're confused is because us nerds often CHOOSE to mess with our toys -- but it should not be mandatory.

[RX3115 @ Oct 16th 2008 1:30PM]

Just like Bush, making up random figures. I like android but still what is the point of making up figures

[fred @ Oct 16th 2008 1:38PM]

Wait, so from an unnamed source, you deem a story from the Motley Fool to be false.

Here is a journalism tip:

Go back to the Motley Fool and ask for a comment. Those guys have their name attached to this story. This unnamed source is just that. A guy who cant go on the record with his/her real ID.

[Joshua Topolsky @ Oct 16th 2008 1:39PM]

@fred I assure you, our source knows better than theirs. I'm happy to stand behind that.

[fred @ Oct 16th 2008 1:45PM]

Ok then, who is it?

The Motley Fool is a known quantity. "A source close to the situation" in the blogosphere is not.

Does this person work for Google or T-Mobile, or is he some dude with a cousin that works at Best Buy?

There's got to be more meat to this guy or there was no point in posting this.

[Charlie @ Oct 16th 2008 1:47PM]

And who was the fool's source? (I assume since you say your source knows better you or he must know who MF got their numbers from)

[garrenteed @ Oct 16th 2008 2:23PM]

How does Bush randomly make up figures?

[John @ Oct 16th 2008 2:23PM]

Josh (a.k.a. Engadget) is vouching for this guy. And this really doesn't affect any of us that much, so hey, lay off.

[Alan Strangis @ Oct 16th 2008 3:15PM]

@ Joshua: Not doubting your sources, just the quality of the article itself, just adding to the FUD.

I posted a longer reply above, but I believe ON IT'S FACE that this article is right, but that it's NOT news, because T-Mobile US was pretty clear that out of the 1.5 million total, two things are true...

1) not all 1.5m are going to pre-orders (clearly T-Mobile US wants some in store as well).
2) not all the pre-orders will be filled on Launch day.

At the same time, even the TITLE of this here article is way off base, because it's a straw man...

"T-Mobile's G1 presales aren't "even close" to 1.5M"

Nobody, even Motley Fool, claimed anything about pre-SALES, which is different that pre-orders. Sales means customers have paid up front. Pre-ORDERS (at least of the G1) can be shipped back to T-Mobile as long as they're unopened, and the customer doesn't have to pay. That's the policy.

So yeah, I'm not so worried about who's source has the longest reach. I'd just like to see the occasional writer on Engadget who's need to sport a 'tude DOESN'T get in the way of accuracy.

[Brad @ Oct 16th 2008 1:35PM]

Surely no one believed this figure. I can't beleive it was bandied about as pure fact.

[fred @ Oct 16th 2008 1:39PM]

And why not?

I certainly hope you answer doesn't take the form of "oh well because it's so fugly, no one I know would want one".

[marlon @ Oct 16th 2008 2:07PM]

That's the exact reason Fred, the Razr is still the number one selling phone despite the fact that it sucks balls. When I worked at AT&T, we would get more returns on it than anything else. Form is an incredibly compelling reason to purchase a new phone.

Also, the average person has no clue what a G1 is, while EVERYONE and their mom had heard of the iPhone months before release.

[fred @ Oct 16th 2008 1:30PM]

"A source close to the situation has chimed in to tell us that T-Mobile's G1 presales -- while very strong, and seemingly making the carrier and HTC very happy campers -- are nowhere near the 1.5 million figure being randomly spouted off by Motley Fool."

Source?


Steve Jobs.

[BluesK1d @ Oct 16th 2008 2:40PM]

Honestly. If something allegedly beats Apple at anything, it is automatic BS. No sources needed.

[Decoy @ Oct 16th 2008 2:51PM]

Ah man, now there's TWO reality distortion fields!

[Yevon @ Oct 16th 2008 1:31PM]

"A source close to the situation" Please, be more vague next time. The details are overwhelming.

[Decoy @ Oct 16th 2008 2:53PM]

They've probably got a source from Google (or HTC, or T-Mob) who has them bound by NDA - and if we want advance info, or deeper info in future, they'll play by the rules now.

[htd @ Oct 16th 2008 1:32PM]

so does anybody know the real number?

[spass @ Oct 16th 2008 1:37PM]

Someone certainly knows...

What I do know: that someone is not the source cited here.

[squiggleslash @ Oct 16th 2008 1:51PM]

Yes, the exact number is 1,105,982 G1s, of which 1,105,982 are for the black model, and 0 are for the brown model.

[KarlW @ Oct 16th 2008 2:25PM]

We won't know until at least the next quarterly earnings report. Still, don't expect this to beat the iPhone.

The anticipation isn't for this device, it's for the Android platform. As a handset, this one isn't particularly breath-taking. There'll be better Android phones. This one just happens to be first on the shelves.

Besides, iPhones aim for a different market segment. It's a smartphone for consumers. It's got the core smartphone features like great web browsing, with an easy interface that anybody could use. I'm not sure Android is ready to take that market on (or if Google want to risk their relationship with Apple). Android is really aimed at Windows Mobile customers - prosumers, tech-heads, business people maybe. There's some overlap, sure, but it's small. Android will still be a success to who it's aimed at.

[ttuttle @ Oct 16th 2008 3:58PM]

Hey, I've seen the brown (a.k.a. "bronze") model. It's nowhere near as ugly as the brown Zune. It's a fairly dark metallic brown.

[Alan Strangis @ Oct 16th 2008 4:10PM]

@ KarlW, who said: "Android is really aimed at Windows Mobile customers - prosumers, tech-heads, business people maybe."

Sorry, 'tech heads' maybe, but you're WAY off the mark with the prosumer (what is a 'prosumer' mobile user?) and business people. The G1 would be a serious step backwards for corporate types who are running WM or Blackberry in an Exchange or Blackberry server environment, at least out of the gate. Until solid, proven apps that work with these technologies, businesses using them are certainly NEVER going flocking to Android in droves.

[Charbax @ Oct 16th 2008 1:33PM]

Engadget was fooled by fool.com and the whole world just copied that info without even asking any questions.

Just proves how stupid this whole blogging thing is.

Anyways, for sure Android is going to overtake the iPhone pretty quickly, but not that quickly, and not only by T-Mobile in the US. It's going to be an effort by dozens of manufacturers using dozens of carriers in dozens of countries.

Sure it's a big effort, but all this is going to happen quickly, within months.

And it's going to be the best revolution in consumer electronics ever. Obama is going to make the Android obligatory for all citizen, you are going to vote in realtime using Android for all the reform propositions.

[rock99rock @ Oct 16th 2008 2:17PM]

Can we vote to reform Obama too?

[sithlord 24 @ Oct 16th 2008 1:33PM]

lololol, classic, they trying to hype their sales up, they need to be called out if this is true

[Charlie @ Oct 16th 2008 1:38PM]

Notice how the MF article didn't quote any sources at google? Not even "unnamed" ones? I don't see any evidence of Google trying to hype up any numbers here.

[djfake @ Oct 17th 2008 9:46AM]

Hey, I ordered the brown one......

[schtum @ Oct 16th 2008 1:45PM]

I pre-ordered the brown model. The matte black looks like an old beeper to me. The brown one is such a dark brown that it might as well be black, and it has the silver keypad which is a nice contrast. Really, they should've called it "espresso" or some other marketing-speak for "so brown you'll think it's black", the word brown just scares a lot of people off ever since the Zune debacle. Or the 70s. Whichever you were around for first.

[just4onepost @ Oct 16th 2008 1:50PM]

Yeah I thought the brown model was ugly when I first saw it. Now it's actually kinda growing on me. It's tough to decide which one's best without seeing them in person though!

[schtum @ Oct 16th 2008 2:31PM]

I've seen it in person. Only the brown one though, I couldn't compare it to the others, but it looks good. This was after I pre-ordered, so it was a huge relief.

[Boarderwoot @ Oct 16th 2008 1:46PM]

I want the OS, not the phone, perhaps that's the reason why not everyone and their grandma isn't jumping on the G1 bandwagon.

[ascot @ Oct 16th 2008 1:46PM]

You're still forgetting that most consumers are midde-brow idiots.
Why would this thing sell over a million units? It's not the "ipod phone" and its not "that touchscreen LG". Nobody "normal" buys a phone for the OS and that thing is ugly.

[Bobby @ Oct 16th 2008 1:56PM]

Yeah, this was debunked by common sense about an hour after it got out:
http://www.informationweek.com/blog/main/archives/2008/10/dont_buy_the_g1.html

The other guys have picked this up.

[ghex88 @ Oct 16th 2008 2:36PM]

Stop being jealous you apple fanboi !!!

[iEye @ Oct 16th 2008 4:23PM]

What is this about Apple?

[Gm from My Cheap Tech @ Oct 16th 2008 2:00PM]

A buddy of mines who mentioned that it was no way near that amount at T-moble.

[OfCourseNot @ Oct 16th 2008 2:02PM]

Ok, so if a "source close to the situation" isn't good enough... how about multiple sites running the same story about Motley Fool making up their numbers?

And how did I know someone was going to comment like it was T-mo's fault?

T-mo has never mentioned a total sales number... this was all Motley Fool and the overly-eager-to-come-up-with-new-stories-for-our-blogs sites who picked up on it.

T-mo News explained the discrepancy: There was an estimated # of handsets available. Someone in T-mobile went on to say they sold 3x as much as they thought they would in the pre-sale. So Motley Fool took the est. # of handsets and multiplied by 3.

And this, dear readers, is why none of these dudes are ever going to get a job in legit journalism. Although, I heard TMZ might be hiring. Good luck!