Of course, math aside, that still doesn't keep us from trying to predict how random rolls might work. We also recieved word from reader Emily about a site she and some friends are working on that is trying to predict just how much you'll have to run a certain instance to pick up some of the rarest items in the game, like Baron Rivendare's mount. Unfortunately, it's not a relevant indicator -- it looks like all they're doing is "simulating" runs on the item, and then tracking when it drops in their simulator. They're putting the math behind the chance into practical numbers.
But of course, while it comes up with a lot of interesting numbers, it means nothing at all in the game -- if you make a run on the Deathcharger, you've got just as much chance to get it as you did on the run before. Quest items are subject to progressive rates, but these random items are just that -- random. A high string of "hits" on a simulator (or even in the game -- it's possible to do five Strat runs in a row and see the charger drop each time) doesn't have any effect on any given run in the game. Emily says the site is entertaining, and it is -- at the very least, it shows you that the item is dropping, while 99 runs without a drop in the game might have you convinced otherwise. But the math doesn't work that way -- either the Baron has the mount when he spawns, or he doesn't.