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Rumor Roundup: BREAKING - March and April not same month


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AAPL earnings will come in well above upper end of company's guidance, say analysts, at $68.3B (9to5 Mac)

Source: Some analysts

Chance it's true: None

"Analyst consensus" of Apple's performance was off by billions of dollars. You know, like always.

  • The amateur analysts came closer, at $69.2 billion
  • The "professional" analysts (is that even a thing?) were even farther off at $67.6 billion
  • Apple's actual revenues for the quarter: $74.6 billion

So the amateur analysts were off by nearly $5 billion, and the "professionals" were off by $7 billion.

Do we seriously need any more proof that analysts have no idea what they're talking about when they talk about Apple? $5 to $7 billion isn't a rounding error, guys. It's a huge pile of money and a big, glowing signpost pointing to the fact that analysts' entire game is built on pure conjecture... which is a nicer, more educated way of saying total BS.

Rumored 'iPad Pro' and Companion Stylus Imagined in New Renderings (MacRumors)

Source: Mockup

Chance it's true: None, because mockup

The parade of awful mockups and renderings continues ad infinitum, and MacRumors goes on spreading them as though they matter.

Minus 74.6 billion points (plus or minus 7 billion) to the designer for using a freaking QR code in his mockups. Fie on you, sir. For shame.

Apple Watch to go on sale in March, claims analyst (Macworld)

Source: "Accurate" analyst Ming-Chi Kuo

Chance it's true: None

Alas, even Macworld has now fallen into the trap of repeating everything Kuo says as though it matters. Unfortunately for Kuo's much-ballyhooed accuracy record, less than 24 hours after Macworld posted this, Tim Cook announced during Apple's earnings call that the Apple Watch will in fact ship in April.

I'm not a scientist or a "well-connected insider", but I'm still pretty sure March and April aren't the same month. (developing...)

This "accurate" analyst also predicted iPhone sales of 73 million units (Apple sold 74.5 million) and Mac sales of 5.9 million (Apple sold 5.5 million). 1.5 million iPhones takes up a lot of space... although I suppose that could be offset by negative 400,000 Macs.

"You're just being nitpicky," some might insist. "1.5 million isn't that much considering the numbers involved now." Allow me to retort: in Q4 2007, Apple sold 1.1 million iPhones. Kuo's estimate was off by more than all the iPhones Apple sold during the first financial quarter it was widely available, and 400,000 Macs is about half of the number of Macs Apple used to sell quarterly during the early 2000s.


While we're on the subject, didn't someone else who loves to brag about his accuracy record also put forward an incorrect launch date for the Apple Watch? "I am convinced" the Apple Watch will launch in April instead because of this leak.

In this article: rumor, Rumor Roundup
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