Discussion about
peter

It's time for RIM to abandon BlackBerry 10 and adopt either Android or Windows Phone

It's time for RIM to abandon BlackBerry 10 and adopt either Android or Windows Phone. It doesn't matter that PlayBook 2.0 received some better-than-expected press coverage at CES last week, or that there have been some interesting hints here and there about what the first phones running RIM's new mobile OS will look like. And while it's bad enough that the first phones running BlackBerry 10 won't ship until sometime around the end of the year, the real problem is that even if RIM started shipping phones tomorrow with an OS that could hold a candle to iOS, Android, and Windows Phone, it probably wouldn't make much of a difference. RIM would still be in very serious trouble.

Why? Because the market has coalesced around iOS and Android, and the network effects (primarily, but not only, around apps) those two platforms have created is proving difficult for even a worthy competitor like Windows Phone, which has already been available for over a year, to gain marketshare.

Microsoft may yet pull it off and cement Windows Phone as top tier competitor alongside iOS and Android. If they do, it's going to be in part because they landed the largest mobile phone maker in the world as a partner and are spending billions of dollars to compete. The scary thing for RIM is that they won't have those kinds of advantages to draw on, and that by the time they ship the first BlackBerry 10 phones there's a good chance Microsoft will have made enough inroads that they'll be fighting not two, but three, major players for the allegiance of smartphone customers and developers.

You can dissect the reasons for iOS and Android's success, but short of BlackBerry 10 being some phenomenal leap forward that's years ahead of the competition -- and I don't think anyone honestly believes RIM has the chops to pull this off anyway -- it's just hard to see any scenario in which RIM delivers a mobile OS that attracts significant usage.

Remember that it's not longer enough to be about as good as what else is out there. It's not even enough to be a little bit better, or to be better than everyone else at a couple of things. To have a successful mobile OS in 2012 you have to offer a clear and compelling case for what is distinctly different and significantly better about your platform. I think this is something that would challenge any technology company today. Simply creating a world-class mobile OS isn't a trivial matter; going beyond that and building one that leapfrogs its rivals is extraordinarily difficult. (This is why it was such a big deal when Apple introduced the iPhone.) We already saw what happened to webOS, which despite being well-regarded was simply not better enough than the competition in any meaningful way and failed to gain significant adoption. Is there any compelling evidence that RIM possesses the engineering and design expertise to avoid a similar fate for BlackBerry 10?

Given the low odds that BlackBerry 10 will be a game-changer, what should RIM do? Well, there are a few options:

1. Sell off the handset business

This would be tough for RIM psychologically, but there's no reason for a cratering handset division to take down a company that still has a profitable services business. Separating the two sides would be complicated, but analysts have suggested that given how sucky RIM seems to be at making phones people want to buy, the more attractive long-term opportunity lies with enterprise network services. They'd probably be able to get someone like Huawei to buy it, and get them to commit to using RIM's services infrastructure, to boot.

2. Go with Android or perhaps even Windows Phone

Either option will be a tough sell up in Waterloo, but it wasn't easy for Stephen Elop to force Nokia to abandon Meego and Symbian for Windows Phone, and he managed to push it through. Yes, the jury is still out on whether Nokia's move will be a success, but doesn't it say something that the Lumia 800 is the first Nokia phone in years that people are legitimately excited about? RIM needs to face the same reality Nokia did, namely that this is a battle of ecosystems and not devices.

Besides, when it comes down to it, most people who buy a BlackBerry do so because of its awesome keyboard, BlackBerry Messenger, and excellent (and secure) Exchange support. They don't care about the underlying OS, and there's no reason why RIM couldn't bring those same features to an Android device. (In fact, given how few Android phones with decent physical keyboards there are, there is probably a gap in the market that RIM could take advantage of.) Reproducing RIM's email and messaging infrastructure in Android wouldn't be trivial, but it might be better to direct the company's relatively limited engineering resources towards that more limited problem rather than trying -- and failing -- to develop a full-blown OS. If RIM introduced a messaging-centric Android phone with a world-class keyboard and great Exchange support you could certainly see them making inroads in the enterprise market, as well as attracting renewed interest from consumers.

3. Hook up with Amazon

There were some rumors last month that Amazon was looking at buying RIM, and while an acquisition is unlikely, they could end up collaborating anyway. There's no indication that this is happening, but it's not impossible to imagine a scenario in which RIM, realizing that BlackBerry 10 is a dead end, but not wanting to become just another Android OEM, uses Amazon's fork of Android on its phones and tablets.

Such a move would jumpstart RIM's Android efforts and differentiate it from its competitors, while offsetting some development costs. If Amazon were willing to give RIM some cut of the profits from digital media sales or Prime subscriptions sign-ups generated it could potentially even lead to some additional revenue for RIM.

Amazon loses money on each Kindle Fire sold, so the idea of them letting someone else use their OS for free is not at all far-fetched. All they care about is whether it increases the userbase for Amazon products and services. Do they need RIM? No, probably not. But hooking up with RIM could be a way for Amazon to spread its ecosystem and take on Apple. Not that I see any indication that anyone at RIM (or Amazon) is thinking along these lines, but it's fun to speculate about what they could do together.

Regardless of what they decide to do, RIM has to make the best of a bad situation. These three analyst quotes from a recent New York Times story (www.nytimes.com­/2012­/01­/04­/technology­/rims­-delay­-c...) about RIM tell a grim story:

“They don’t have a firm grasp of the issues and realities of bringing these phones to market,” - Colin Gillis, analyst with BGC Partners.

“They can’t get the infrastructure and the operating system ready in time,” - Peter Misek, analyst with Jefferies & Company.

“Waiting for the chipset is a contributing factor in a number of factors that led to the delay. Creating the ecosystem for the phones is the bigger problem.” - Alkesh Shah, analyst with Evercore Partners

Years of poor decisions have led the company to a place where there are really no good options. The saddest part is that given the obstinance of RIM's co-CEO's, the most likely outcome is that the company will continue on the path its on, releasing the first BlackBerry 10 handsets around the end of this year to a largely indifferent market.

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112 replies
ranhalt

Without too much analysis, I'd say the gut reaction is that RIM would be better off adopting Windows Phone over Android. It might take too long to see how well it works out for Nokia, so they'll have to take a gamble. They could do both, but that would be too messy. Stick with a cohesive platform and ensure business/enterprise interoperability. They would have to figure out how to display Metro on typical BB screens, though.
5 like dislike
dwx

And how's that been working for Nokia? They're so late to market that we've practically forgotten who they are! Nokia's decision to go with Microsoft has effectively taken them out of the game.
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cjtylr

I completely disagree. Their partnership with Microsoft is the only thing keeping them afloat at the moment, and is the only way we're going to continue to see Nokia innovation. The Lumia 900 is a gorgeous phone made possible only by the alliance between the two companies.
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jerquiaga

I wouldn't say it's the only thing keeping them afloat. Nokia is pretty dominant in the feature phone market outside of the US. It is certainly their shot at remaining relevant in the smart phone market. Personally, I'm pretty sure the Lumia 900 is going to be my next smart phone.
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stalky14

They need to "Pull a Sega": Quit the hardware business and do software only for multiple platforms. I think they could make quite a bit of money selling BBM apps in the iPhone/Android/WP7 marketplaces and be profitable if they cut all the overhead involved in making phones from scratch to run BBM on.
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njashanmal

RIM actually used to do this. I still have an old Nokia that has a BlackBerry "Connect" app powering the email client. Can't recall if it had BBM support but it had both BES/BIS support.

No idea why they discontinue offering this service.
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dwx

I think that it's unlikely that they'll do anything other than forge onward.

From RIM's point of view, they ALREADY support Android since they can run Android Apps.

From the options you offered, Option 1 is a non-starter. The current management team (and board) wouldn't survive the fallout from the beating the stock market would give them, Option 2 is something they think they ALREADY do because they're Android compatible. And Option 3 only make sense if Amazon steps up with an acquisition offer (which may be practical in the future, but not today).

The unfortunate reality is that they can't make a drastic move without jeopardizing their current revenue stream, and I'm sure they're worried about doing that. They survived (and prospered) with industry analysts and the media saying that version 4, 5, 6, and 7 of their OS was outdated, even though people kept buying their devices and sales volumes grew. Why would they listen to us now when we've incorrectly predicted their doom so many times in the past?
3 like dislike
internalogic

I had BB for work and personal use for years before I switched to Android (OG Droid) in '09, and then iPhone in '11. I used the iPhone on and off along the way, but couldn't make the switch until iOS5 introduced the Android-like drawer for notifications, along with a few other tweaks.

I have over 6k contacts in my phone (should prob edit the list), and nothing has ever been as fast or efficient at contact management and dialing as BB. I'd still take a 9730 with keyboard and sidescroll over any touchscreen phone when it comes to managing a large contact list.

Looking forward, BB has meaningful advantages in markets where businesses, consumers, and carriers actually care about limiting costs associated with bandwidth/data use - as well as purpose-designed and built devices for fast, secure business data and voice.

What is the market potential and success model for devices and services for this segment?

Is there a viable business dedicated to hard core corp and industrial accounts (e.g., the DoD still has not approved iPhone) and emerging markets (India, Brazil, etc.).

As others have posted, without a quantum shift in consumer appeal, RIM's prospects in the mainstream handset segment are limited - there is no long-term play in emerging markets, and businesses will continue to migrate to other platforms based on consumer preference - data and security be damned.

I think RIM needs to steal a play from IBM and reinvent their product/service mix - change the company, not just the product. Perhaps exit the hardware business altogether and focus on services (fast, secure, easy email for any mobile platform).

Every time I make a call on my iPhone, I miss my BB. Every time I have to search for a contact in my extensive list, I miss my BB. And every time I have to tap out a detailed email, I miss my BB. But I'm not going to pay for and carry two devices - and my current company has adopted the iPhone... at this point in time, it's hard to envision a way back to RIM.
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idlehands

I think your assessment is absolutely accurate, but I propose a variation of your solutions.

RIM has two strengths, their services, and their physical keyboards, and I think there is room in this world for both, but not if BlackBerry OS is part of the plan. I think they would do well two do two things: open their services cross-platform and produce hardware running Android or Windows Phone 7.

A huge percentage of the users they lost still lament how they miss their BlackBerry messaging services and email. If RIM made these services available for a small monthly fee on all the platforms (iOS, Android, WP7), they would not only retain customers, they would probably bolster their enterprise business. Locked down as it is, iOS 5 has made big enough improvements in notifications that having a decent BB experience wouldn't be out of the question.

There is a large portion of the enterprise population that never intends to get used to a virtual keyboard. There have been some BB phones with fantastic ones. If RIM could stop worrying about trying to keep up on the OS front they could focus on bringing their clean looking and functioning hardware to the market. The Porsche designed phone is the first non-Apple design to have caught my eye since the back detail of the HTC Incredible (I'm an industrial designer, aesthetics are important). Their is a place for their handsets... if they would run an OS that has a software catalog or a chance of actually developing one.

Here's to at least one of their CEOs getting the picture.
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dwx

But don't you think that they believe they're doing this with BB OS10? It has Android App compatible, and I'm sure they have their own internal justifications (maybe battery life or security) for why they're going this route rather than straight Android.

Obviously they want to keep the BB messaging server, BBM, and their security clearance. I don't think they expect a lot of 3rd party app support at this point.

I agree they should drop their keyboardless devices, they aren't competitive, and stick with the physical keyboard devices that they have always made best.
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idlehands

I do think they believe this, which isn't good news. There is no way that they will be able to provide a seamless experience for the end user for all Android apps. It's a band-aid when they need surgery.

They sure do expect a lot of 3rd party app support (at least they keep telling their shareholders that), but they aren't going to get it. They need that support, though, because as security improves on the other devices, they are going to continue to hemorrhage customers to the other platforms.

For what it's worth, I want to make it clear that I am not anti-RIM. I just don't feel that their current direction will pull them out of the sales decline.

One more note... I have a relative that was acquired by RIM (and, who, sadly, did not find jokes about RIM jobs funny). He is a programmer and after a short period of time, despite a significant bump in pay, he left because he felt that they needed to move to another platform if not multiple and he wanted to be part of a company that was growing, not shrinking. This, of course, is merely anecdotal.
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nickjsaunders

My confusion is why are we assuming that their strengths historically will also be strengths in the future. Isn't the market saying that perhaps they aren't so excited by physical keyboards or messaging as a killer app anymore by hardly buying any Blackberrys. This isn't just because the Blackberry OS is showing its age but because iOS and Android devices appear to be in a different league entirely.

I'm skeptical that any phone with a physical keyboard will be a top seller again. I think RIM needs to define new USPs. This could be done with a white-board reset or a partnership
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hunthenning

I agree, I think that they could bring their famous Blackberry hardware and BBM to Windows Phone and that would sell. I'm sure Microsoft would love to partner with Blackberry and use them to promote the business aspect of Windows Phone. They could have Blackberry Windows Phones for business-minded users and Nokia Windows Phones for everybody else.
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bpappin

If I was RIM, I would think very hard before becoming dependent on Microsoft for my OS.
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dwx

Do you actually think that theses two proud companies (Nokia and RIM) have fallen so low that they now aspire to be Microsoft's lap dogs?
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hunthenning

Nokia seems to be embracing Microsoft respectively with those nice Lumia phones. I think Blackberry could make a really nice Windows Phone. Focus on hardware and the Blackberry Apps. If they went with Android they would have to do a lot more work and then they would just be another Android OEM.
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kfer

They both have fallen so low as to be considered terminally ill, so I imagine the author is probably correct that drastically embracing a mobile OS that has a chance of survival is the best course - although I agree with your point as well - Most likely the hubris and/or pride (depending on perspective), will prevent either RIM or Nokia from jumping to Android or Microsoft in time for their last breaths.
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hunthenning

...Nokia has already switched their smartphone platform over to Windows Phone. Hence the Lumia 710, 800, and 900
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bpappin

Oh now... your not starting the evil Microsoft thing again are you?
If you really want to go there, I'd rank Apple as far more Evil than Microsoft... and I'm mostly an Apple user!
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jerquiaga

I know that Peter proposed RIM become a services only outfit and drop the hardware business, but honestly, aren't their services becoming obsolete as well? It used to be that BES/BIS filled a huge shortcoming in that e-mail/groupware suites didn't support mobile clients very well, or their security. That seems to have changed with the last couple of versions of Exchange, which support devices quite well, and allow you to secure those devices with Exchange ActiveSync Policies. As an IT Manager, why would I add BES/BIS on top of that, along with the extra administration and licensing over head that that brings, and the fact that I am then completely dependent on RIM's service (which has had some pretty notable outages)? I don't actually have any experience with BES/BIS, so I'd love to hear what the advantages of using it are from someone that knows. If there isn't a serious advantage, then I would argue that RIM is well and truly dead.
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mobileadmin

EAS main issue is there is no consistency across mobile devices. It's a simple email connector. At the moment you can enforce a password, password timeout and remote erase across platforms. RIM's BES is a full featured MDM. Provides a secure VPN to your intranet, can intergrate with your PBX, SharePoint. Manage the device down to every option. Allows you to capture SMS, filter internet browser. It's like saying a toaster is as capable as a Viking range.

As an IT mobile professional I get the cost issues, support issues. But RIM does provide a low cost (Free) option with Blackberry Server Express if the full BES is overkill for your environment. BES should be compared to MobileIron, Good Technology is you want a accurate comparision.

You also assume every company uses Microsoft Exchange. RIM provides a solution for Notes, GroupWise, MDamon etc. Do a RFP and compare the functionality compared to any MDM on the market (which EAS is not even part of) and RIM still has the gold standard - bar none.

Don't assume your basic needs are the same as other corporations.
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jerquiaga

Thanks for the info. I never meant to presume that my needs were what everyone needed (hence my mentioning that I had no experience with BES and asked for someone who did to explain).
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Mitchellmckenna

Your local “Canadian living in the US” here,
I’ll start off by saying anyone who knows me knows I’m an Android fanboy, but I can’t help but support the hometown hero, I’m also one to often cheer for the underdog (eg. webOS).

BlackBerry Outside the US
I think the situation for RIM is a little different outside the US, or even more so, outside the Tech scene a lot of us are a part of. The BlackBerry is traditionally a business phone. “BlackBerry Internet Service is available in 91 countries worldwide on over 500 mobile service operators”. When I was back in Canada I would often hear business people “oh, send me your PIN” (Personal Identification Number for BBM). Or “Yeah, I’ll ping you later” - something tells me it’s both a play on PIN and the networking name. It's in some ways part of a business culture.

See davidribeiro94’s comment “RIM is still going very strong here in Canada, UK, and a bunch of countries in Asia. Every single week there's someone on Facebook posting his/her BB PIN”.

Back in Canada, 4 of my family members have BlackBerry’s. Honestly, I’m looking forward to RIM launching their BBM app on Android, to keep in touch since my family's always BBMing each other (it’s free, like iMessage on iPhone).

Governments and Corporations
Government and a lot of corporations equip their employees with BlackBerry’s as “work phones”. RIM has nailed that market, and I bet is a significant part of their revenue stream and probably why they aren’t going anywhere. Out of anyone Windows phones might be able to take them on in this area. Those gov/corps don’t want to move away from blackberry because they know it’s secure, it would be costly to change, and mean training their tech’s on new hardware / software to support.

Profitability?
If you look at Wikipedia they seem to make 5 billion more sales than their previous year, year over year. As well as increasing net income at 25% - 50% year over year.
Source: en.wikipedia.org­/wiki­/Research­_In­_Motion­#Growth

That doesn’t seem like an indicator of a company that’s going away anytime soon. Despite this though, their stock hit an almost all time low of $12/share Dec 20th, 2011. The stock has since been on a general rise over the last month, likely due partially to their announcement of Playbook OS 2.0.

Positioning Themselves - Their Future
I think the general consensus of this thread is RIM has to refocus. Which I think even they realize (In July 2011, they cut 2,000 jobs). I’m not sure if being just another skin of Android is the solution though. They know they've got the business users covered, their challenge is to make phones cool enough to get the general consumer to choose them. They have the best keyboard phones on the market, solid Exchange and messaging, and It’s not like they’re not trying new cool things - PlayBook OS 2.0 looks pretty good, they borrow a lot of concepts from webOS (Card View, Synergy, etc) and ICS: www.engadget.com­/2012­/01­/10­/blackberry­-playbook­-os... .
2 like dislike
Avro

It depends on where you are. Think of Blackberry here in the UK and you think of teenagers and BBM. Over 40% of teenagers here use Blackberrys. If Blackberry went WP7 or Android, they would be off to an iPhone like a shot.
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roberto

Great editorial, Peter. What is the status of Qnix, and what should they do about it?
1 like dislike
BGunnells

BlackBerry 10 *is* QNX...

Or rather, more correctly, QNX evolved into what is now known as "BlackBerry 10." From an article Dec 7, 2011 on crackberry.com, Kevin Michaluk wrote:

"Back at BlackBerry DevCon, Mike Lazaridis announced that the new BlackBerry/QNX platform would further be known as BBX. That was all well and good until a company called BASIS International stepped in and begged to differ, as they already were using the BBX trademark. After a few courtroom spats, RIM was forced to give in and was no longer permitted to use the BBX name.

"As a result, RIM has re-dubbed the next generation software BlackBerry 10. Depending on how you think, there are two ways to look at it. You're either on the 'BBX, X=10, BlackBerry 10... that works' side, or the 'What the hell happened to BlackBerry 8 and 9?!' side."

As if that's not bad enough, Bla1ze reported on Dec 22 that there are now reports that RIM is facing some new legal woes over their use of "BBM" for BlackBerry Messenger. The Bureau of Broadcast Management, which was established in 1944 and later shortened their name to BBM Canada, is seeking an injunction stopping RIM from using the name BBM. Much like RIM's use of the BBX name, the BBM mark has indeed been in use for a while. Stay tuned...

Let us pray:
Our smartphone, which art in holster, BlackBerry be thy name. Our e-mail come, our work be done, on the go as it is in our office. Give us this day our daily reboot, and forgive us our memory leak, as we forgive our leaking apps. And lead us not unto Windows or Android, but deliver us from Apple. For thine is the BBM, the Trackpad and the thumb keyboard, forever. Amen.

-=B
0 like dislike
EBone

All of RIM's eggs are in the BB10 basket, and they're not going to change that strategy now. BB still has a strong hold on the business community. Where they are lacking is the everyday consumer market, where everything is about the app catalog.

BB10 will save RIM for the consumer market, because of the appeal to run Android apps on RIM hardware. But daylight is burning for RIM - they need to have BB10 handsets in the US market before the end of the second quarter this year if they want to survive as a viable player in the consumer market.

If RIM fails to win over this consumer market, then they would probably be served best by walking away from it entirely, and focusing strictly on enterprise solutions, with unimpeachable security for corporate and government clients.
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kfer

Ebone - Just really curious about your assertion that BB has a strong hold on business community. Working for a Fortune 500 company that used to be dominated by BB, all of my coworkers and myself included have moved to iOS and Android over the last year.. Where is there any information about BB continuing to have a hold in business community besides evaporating service contracts?
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EBone

75 million users, most of them for business, with BB Enterprise Servers running their email and BBS. That's a large installed user base.
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megazone

But that large installed user base is faltering. Just because there is an installed base doesn't mean it is a *loyal* installed base. My employer, F5 Networks, used to give out Blackberry devices as the only official corporate smartphone. There were ways employees could use their own device, but nothing really official. Over the past year and a half that changed - 180 degrees.

First they started giving out iPhone *and* Blackberry - you could take your pick. And they put in place an official policy to allow employees to provide their own Android device while using the corporate plan. There was a radical shift in usage with tech staff largely going Android and lots of others going iPhone.

And they just announced a new change - no more Blackberry. They will no longer issue Blackberry to anyone, period. And all existing Blackberry devices will be phased out over time and replaced with iPhone, or the user can opt for an Android device.

The reason given is that they saw such a shift away from Blackberry, that it is so unpopular with the employees, that they could no longer justify the cost of maintaining the infrastructure (BES, etc.). The cost of the licenses, IT costs for running things, etc. iPhone and Android utilize ActiveSync, which is already in place. They also have support for other services we use, such as Lync.

We're not unique. I think this kind of thing will accelerate during 2012 as RIM falls further behind the curve waiting for BB10 devices.
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mobileadmin

Funny RIM has provided a OCS and Lync client for years.

Are these corporate liable Android and iOS or BYOD? BYOD has some serious privacy and compensation issues IMO. Why should I give control of my device to my employer? All for the perk of using my own device?

I'd rather be provided the device if the job requires it. If that means a "work" device and personal one so be it - but leave your security and controls off MY devices.
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megazone

I, and a lot of others, feel the opposite. I simply won't carry two devices. I'd much prefer to carry my one device and use it for work. I don't care one bit that I have to enable PIN security and give IT admin access to meet corporate requirements. Big deal.

If you feel that strongly then you can use a corporate issued iPhone for work and whatever you want as a personal device. But I don't know anyone I work with who has gone that route. They're either using a corporate issued iPhone for everything or BYOD Android. With BYOD you have two options - put it on the corporate plan and they pay the bill, or keep it on your own plan and pay yourself. I put mine on the corporate plan - why would I want to pay when they will?

If I were to leave the company then I just have to remove the corporate Exchange account from my phone and with it their admin access. Switching back to a personal bill from the corporate account isn't hard either.

They don't have any real control of my device. Yes, they can remote wipe it - but all of my personal stuff is backed up in the cloud on a personal account. Restoring it is trivial - I just did it when I upgraded from my OG Droid to my Galaxy Nexus.
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jdwusami

Working on the new mobile strategy at our company we have decided to replace BlackBerry with iOS as our future supported platform. The install base may be there but I think using us as a model of the future our userbase will move from BlackBerry as they see the more advanced capabilities we have planned for iOS.
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mobileadmin

Love to see your TCO and scale for support as you do this migration. Do you lock down the iOS devices, allow a free for all in usage? BYOD or corporate liable?
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bpappin

Actually, Android has adequate security including remote policy management for some time... AFAIK iOS is adding some of that as well, although I don't know how well it will work.

Biggest challenge to companies adopting iPhone is the difficulty in deploying custom application (which is easy for BB and Android) but if they never expect to need it, then there is not really an issue.
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crichton007

Funny thing is I think Blackberry makes some of the nicest hardware I've ever used, The sound and build quality are excellent. The OS and the software ecosystem are pretty pathetic. Heck, I paid full retail for a phone to get away from my Blackberry and that is the only time I've ever done that since I bought my first cell phone back in 1999.
1 like dislike
rogerswanson

Which mobile phone did you settle on?
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baileylo

In Peter's tweets he said that releasing a great product wasn't enough, the key to success was market share. From a web stand point IE6 is a great success; it maintains a decent market share considering its age. It is able to do this because large corporations rely upon it, having custom software built for IE.
I am under the impression that RIM still has this hold on some major businesses. Could RIM use its business sector market share to form a rebirth? Would they be able to force BB10 into the hands of the consumers and let this sectored market share grow organically into the complete smart phone sector?
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groovechicken

This sounds a lot like deja vu to me. Palm had dragged their users along with no real innovation for years. Then they announced a device that depended on a phone for all its functionality, prompting you guys to right a manifesto telling them how to save the ship. They tried to change course, but ultimately failed. The RIM story is very similar at this point. Perhaps their service business can survive, but there is less necessity for it now in the current market of pretty good messaging services. As for the hardware, everyone I know who owns a Blackberry is a long-time user, and they each despise their current Blackberry, both software and hardware. I have watched droves of people flee Blackberry for the last few years and every one of them has told me how much better their iPhones and Android phones are. I'm afraid RIM is destined to RIP.
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megazone

Yeah, the parallels are there. RIM is a bit better at executing. The Playbook at least came to market, unlike the Foleo. And it is more functional. But still not a success. Palm staggered around for years with an outdated OS while they repeatedly screwed up attempts to develop their next version (OS 6, their first Linux effort, the completely different Linux OS for the Foleo) until they finally came out with WebOS - too late. Palm was on top of the world, the market leader, and they rested on their laurels long enough to lose it all.
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chefbenito

Haters and Fanboys piling on in the comments. Sorry but maybe iCloud just came out and now you might have a slight workaround for some syncing. Did everyone with an iOS device delete itunes and their entire media library from their desktops? Sorry but for years I (and many others) have fought with itunes and its horrible design. All this time I had people saying, it works great, they were wrong too. I doubt many desktop users replied to this thread on their touch screen PCs or flat, touch sensitive keyboards either. To use iCloud and iSync you have to do everything OTA which drains battery, is slow and let's all hope it works better than Siri. And FWIW as a PC user I like a hard copy backup of my data and purchases. I also like to be able to easily browse device files and directories, I often use my phone as a thumb drive on multiple PCs.

All these haters and fanboys, yet few pointed criticisms of the BBOS. Their new 4G phones with lots of ram and fast cpus and lots of (expandable) memory are great and I personally have only been frustrated by iOS phones and Android phones. As to why I mentioned above. I am rather tired of people down playing the marketing side of things and (yet again) giving Apple credit for things they merely expanded upon and did not invent.
So what am I missing? What should I be looking for that's so sucky about my 1.2G 4G phone with 768m of ram and 32G of swapable storage? Because I have to say it does everything I want it to do. Tell me what magic pixie dust makes Android and iOS so awesome again? I think people want a big story and RIM is loved by its Millions and Millions and Millions of USERs. Clearly the iMarketing has worked for many people, and google has pushed Android on all of us, despite having put out far more crappy phones than quality.
Hey when is the Galaxy Nexus S 4 Gold Fender Edition coming out? Sort of a joke when you need to download an alternate keyboard app because the main one sucks. And iPhone devotees in my family all admit in confidence that iphone typing really isnt that great.

So what am I missing? And tell me please I can delete all of itunes and my entire itms media library and everything will "just work". I'd like to get some of that SSD space back because itunes never liked to be put on a secondary hard drive.
1 like dislike
bpappin

I'm one of those that don't mind iTunes, but I have to agree with you on the rest of your comments... sheesh... the fanboys are getting violent!
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roz

Then again, maybe they have accomplished the mission and they don't need to exist anymore. They had a good run. I really don't see much value to be added by them going forward.
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abhilashkumar

I would hate to see a platform die. Especially one that has had such a long successful run and is much a part of corporate culture. I am not a big fan of the Blackberry, but outside of the US they not only have a near monopoly on the corporate email business but also have a huge following in the young adults section which are heavily into texting, facebooking and tweeting.

While young executives may be switching to touch screen phones, for young college going adults and kids touch screens cannot offer the same speed and comfort of a physical keyoard on Blackberry devices.

I myself prefer to use the company provided Blackberry for all things to do with any decent amount of typing while my android is used for consumption of news and videos and tethering.
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roz

They can milk international markets for a little while but they really are no big lose at this point. They drove the idea of mobile email but had no culture around usability (and I would say hardware quality.)

They can adopt Android or Winphone but it wont be the same product anymore and it will just prolong the death. In one case they will be competing on cost with Samsung. In the other, Nokia. Neither path sounds appealing.
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alexgaston

I just had to abandon RIM and my buggy Blackberrys!
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radikal

I am with you and have thought that the blackberry android phone would be so nice.
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mjerrellw

I think they had a decent run..but I think that in order for them to press on..they will need to push out more cutting edge devices that can cut into the gaming realm when it comes to phone and smartphone performance. Smartphones are becoming the norm and are no longer a device that stands out. they will need to meet or exceed the bar set by Android OS devices and the fanboy Iphone devices.
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aoctavio

Going with amazon is a bad idea, Amazon is too US centric, check out how much Blackberry used to sell in South America and Africa and other places where Amazon has no presence. I think they should push their good apps: BBM and email with exchange support to all the other plattforms and keep selling it as a service for consumers (BIS) and companies (BES).
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njashanmal

I still think an acquisition of RIM by another firm, quite likely Microsoft, is a very real possibility, especially given that RIM's market cap is now significantly below it's book value meaning that even from a purely financial point of view it could make sense.

Microsoft has a cash reserve of over $57b and could easily afford to make this move, which would make sense from the point of view of gaining inroads to RIM's enterprise clients and deploying Windows Phones compatible with BES.

What appears to be preventing this is a reluctance by RIM to sell.

This may change if real shareholder pressure starts to form.
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