With HTML5, Gears and O3D, applications will be able to take advantage of graphics acceleration and offline files, and knowing Google these will all soon work as fast (faster) than any competing Microsoft/Apple product. I would guess that there will be several apps demonstrating these capabilities by launch, and then the market for this kind of broadly compatible software is going to EXPLODE within a year after that.
As the nativeclient project matures, and if/when wine becomes a real, working alternative for XP or 7, these technologies will become integrated with the "browser as operating system" model, and the assumption that Chrome OS is in any way "limited" will cease to make any sense. This is about when the supported hardware will start to include full-size desktop systems and much more powerful hardware, and about when Microsoft can start packing up their stuff.
What do people think? Different predictions?