The CEO of iOS game maker ngmoco is calling the NGP DoA:
“I think PSP is done and the new [NGP] is dead on arrival. It's really difficult to compete with an app store that has hundreds of thousands of applications and a wide range of options where the average price paid is around $1.20 and there are tens, if not hundreds of thousands of free applications that are really high quality. So I just don't think Sony's going to be able to compete with that.”
You know, no matter how many times people keep saying that the App Store is killing more "traditional" dedicated-system handheld gaming, and no matter WHO says it, it still hasn't happened. And it won't happen until we start getting some deeper game play across the board, which a lot of these "high quality" and cheap/free games still lack.
That said, I can't see NGP/3DS gaming going away any time soon. I think there's a demand for games that are beyond the "casual" category. I haven't seen any games on smartphones that have as much story and depth as the best games that come out for gaming portables. Even if phones were to get these more advanced games, the lack of good hardware buttons is still a problem (not everyone will have an Xperia Play).
I like playing with buttons and joysticks.