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Fortune ranks the Apple analysts
After Apple's earnings call yesterday the company's stock took a sizable hit. This, of course, was due in large part to the company underperforming analysts' revenue expectations. But rather than rail on Apple, Fortune argues that Wall Street's Apple analysts performed worse than the company itself, and it's worked up a rather handy chart to prove its point. Ranking a whopping 68 analysts based on how close their predictions came to hitting Apple's true numbers, the chart shows just how dramatically earnings predictions can vary. For example, Apple reported revenue of $54.51 billion, but analyst predictions ranged from $51.70 billion to $65.69 billion. Take a look at some more failed predictions, ranging from insanely optimistic to depressingly dismal, on Fortune.
MacBook Air projected to earn $2.2 billion per year
Analyst Mark Moskowitz with J.P. Morgan predicts the MacBook Air will be a $2.2 billion cash cow for Apple in 2011. The MacBook Air exploded onto the scene in late 2010 with a smaller form factor and a reasonable base price. Moskowitz notes that Apple sold 420,000 units in the last few months of 2010, a 333 percent year-over-year increase. The diminutive MacBook Air accounted for 10 percent of total Mac units sold and 15 percent of its notebook sales. Supply chain estimates suggest the MacBook Air continues to be a strong performer for Apple in 2011. Sources suggest Apple has doubled its February orders for the MacBook Air in response to unexpectedly strong demand. If Apple is able to maintain this level of demand and keep its base price at $1000, Apple can easily beat analysts early sales estimates and accrue $2.2 billion in revenue from this small but sweet notebook.
iPad 2 lines persist two weeks after launch
No, this doesn't mean that some people have been standing in line for two weeks non-stop; it means that lines continue to form at Apple stores around the USA as new shipments of iPad 2s arrive. In fact, the lines are so notable, says AppleInsider, that Wall Street analyst Charlie Wolf of Needham & Company is now predicting that Apple will sell 30 million iPads this year, 10 million more than his original estimate. And, he predicts, Apple will sell 40 million in 2012. With supplies running out around the world, the shipping delays of 3-4 weeks and eBay prices holding at around 150 percent of list price, it looks like those queues will continue for some time. Wolf admits that predicting sales is difficult and that his initial predictions (and those of others) were wrong and have had to be updated. Are there still queues at your local Apple Store? Are you still waiting for your iPad 2? Let us know in comments.
AAPL could hit $410 according to R.W. Baird analyst
If only this blogger had held onto that Apple stock that was bought for about $8 while dabbling in the market in the late-1990s. Instead the profits from selling it at $27 a share were put into such wise investments as Webvan. The only good thing about my dot com bubble investing period is that only a small chunk of money was set aside to play with and no more was added. On the other hand if I had just had more patience and stayed in Apple, I'd have a very nice chunk of change with it now trading at over $317 per share and likely to go much higher. According to a recent Associated Press article, William V. Power, an analyst with R.W. Baird is projecting that AAPL shares will be trading at as much as $410 before long and he is not alone. Numerous analysts have projected $400+ for Apple and the average of 38 different projections is $370.50. The key to that continued growth according to Power is the iPhone which currently only commands about three percent of global mobile phone sales. As smartphones grab an ever larger stake of the handset market, Apple and its prime competitors, Android and Windows Phone 7 are all likely to see big gains in the next few years and that will certainly help Apple's bottom line and stock price.
