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Deutsche Bank is using climate change data to predict investment risk
The Trump administration might still be arguing that climate change isn't real (and if it is, it certainly isn't caused by humans), but Deutsche Bank wants to be prepared for the financial hit that might result. The bank's asset management group is incorporating climate change data to determine the biggest risks to investment portfolios.
Sprint + T-Mobile: What everyone else is saying about a possible acquisition
Softbank CEO Masayoshi Son has been on a mission to purchase T-Mobile and merge it with the Now Network. His campaign began in secret, first involving several visits to regulators in Washington DC. In the past week, however, he's become much more vocal. Son appeared on The Charlie Rose Show and CNBC on Monday, claiming a post-merger Sprint will be good for the wireless industry. The next day he argued that broadband in the US is one of the slowest and most expensive in the world, and the answer is to encourage mobile broadband deployment. Son's solution to the speed problem is to eventually deploy mobile broadband as fast as 200Mbps, but would a T-Mobile acquisition bring down the cost to consumers? The CEO certainly thinks so: he says the merger will launch a price war and enhance wireless competition unlike anything this country has ever seen. He's going up against federal regulators, two of the largest carriers in the country, and history: just over two years ago, AT&T's attempt to purchase T-Mobile fell flat when the FCC and Department of Justice determined that competition would take a nose dive. So we know Sprint's position on the matter, but what does the rest of the industry think about it?
Wall Street analysts weigh in on the iPad mini
Although Apple's stock fell sharply after the event yesterday -- it closed at around US$613 after opening the day at about $631 a share -- most Wall Street analysts are saying that the iPad mini will be a hit with consumers. The $329 starting price of the iPad mini was seen by Chris Whitmore of Deutsche Bank as a "modest disappointment," although he said that the features of the mini more than make up for the higher-than-expected price point. Many analysts, including Whitmore, believed Apple would offer a base model with only 8 GB of storage and were surprised by the starting capacity of 16 GB. Whitmore also feels that the build quality of the aluminum unibody iPad mini will also justify the $130 price premium over Android competitors such as the Google Nexus 7 and Amazon Kindle Fire HD. The competing devices are made of plastic and glass. Deutsche Bank is maintaining its $850 price target for AAPL shares. Also chiming in was Charlie Wolf of Needham & Company, who thinks the new iPad mini will expand the overall market, and make life difficult for lower-priced competitors. To quote Wolf's comments about the competition, "none compare with this device, in our opinion, which is a full-featured iPad except for its size. All 275,000 iPad applications can run on it without modification." Needham's price target of $750 for AAPL remains the same. Sterne Agee's Shaw Wu had predicted a price point for the iPad mini between $299 and $349, so the $329 price tag fit his expectations. Wu was quoted as saying, "We continue to believe iPad mini is the competition's worst nightmare and likely to drive incremental volume." AppleInsider has a full rundown of analyst reactions to the littlest iPad. One parting comment from their post notes that "Maynard Um of Wells Fargo Securities believes that Apple arguably has its strongest product lineup in the company's history."
Elmer-DeWitt: Apple in "no hurry" to settle iPhone patent lawsuits
To Apple-watchers -- in particular tech bloggers -- it seems like Apple is taking forever to settle the lawsuits that are pending against Samsung and other smartphone manufacturers for allegedly infringing on the company's intellectual property. On Fortune's Apple 2.0 site today, long-time Apple analyst Philip Elmer-DeWitt explains why a slow, measured march through the patent courts of the world might work out to the company's advantage. Elmer-DeWitt cites a recent analysis by Deutsche Bank's Chris Whitmore that outlines four possible outcomes to Apple's legal attack against the Android ecosystem: A settlement, with a per-unit license fee paid to Apple; a "more favorable outcome" where Apple is able to have certain features removed from Android handset or can limit the distribution of Android phones, resulting in capturing 25 percent of Android's future market share; neutral with no winner; and Apple loses and must pay a counter claim to Android manufacturers. As Elmer-DeWitt notes, Whitmore apparently doesn't think outcomes 3 and 4 are very likely, as he spends the majority of his analysis trying to figure out just how much Apple could reap from the first two outcomes. Whitmore thinks that a license fee could cost competitors about US$10 per handset, which would add about $35 to the value of each share of Apple stock. However, if Apple holds out and fights for outcome 2, it could easily a growth in share price closer to $260 per share. That's why Whitmore believes that "Apple is unlikely to settle cheaply." His advice to investors? Hold tight and let the legal drama play out, as investors are "gaining exposure to a potentially very lucrative favorable IP outcome for little or no cost."
Apple.com fifth most-visited retail site on Black Friday
Black Friday was a successful day for online retailers. Customers spent more than US$816 million, a 26 percent increase over Black Friday 2010. Apple was one of the beneficiaries of this rise in online sales. The Cupertino company climbed its way into the top 5 and became the fifth most-visited retail website on Black Friday, says a report from Comscore. The company trailed only Target, Best Buy, Wal-Mart and Amazon. Analysts's reports on Apple's Black Friday sales were also favourable. Deutsche Bank's Chris Whitmore said Apple stores overseas had a hard time keeping the iPhone 4S in stock. Over 75 percent of stores he polled had sold their entire inventory of iPhone 4S handsets on Black Friday. Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster's research suggests the surveyed Apple store(s) were selling iPads at a rate of 14.8 per hour. Macs also were popular and left the store(s) at a rate of 10.1 per hour.
Analyst suggests Apple to release two iPhone models this September
In a recent research note, Deutsche Bank analyst Chris Whitmore predicts Apple may unveil two iPhone models, an iPhone 4S and an iPhone 5, this fall. Whitmore argues that RIM and Nokia, two bastions of the mid-range mobile phone market, are struggling, and Apple could grab a huge chunk of their market share with an inexpensive iPhone. Whitmore believes Apple is producing an iPhone 4S that is unlocked and priced around $349. This lower-priced model, which has been rumored before, will include a pre-paid voice plan that will entice customers to jump on the Apple bandwagon. Along with this low-priced model, Whitmore also believes Apple will also introduce an iPhone 5, which is the next generation iPhone everyone is expecting.
Deutsche Bank analyst: Holiday Mac and iPad sales higher than expected
We've been speculating about just how popular iPads were during the first Christmas season with the revolutionary device, and we're also wondering how other Apple products did during the holidays. In a report cited by AppleInsider, Deutsche Bank analyst Chris Whitmore says that sales of both iPads and Macs were better than expected, based on spot checks made by the company. The firm's investigation of Apple retail stores and other outlets also indicated that there were crowds waiting for iPhones, which they believe signifies good demand for Apple's smartphone. Very few shortages of stock were reported by Deutsche Bank. While the 16 GB Wi-Fi version of the iPad had been the top seller in the past, the holiday season saw robust sales of the 32 GB 3G iPad. Mac sales were also up, assisted by the sexy and inexpensive 11" MacBook Air. Whitmore's estimates for the quarter ending December 31, 2010 were originally showing sales of 15 million iPhones, 6 million iPads and 4 million Macs. Those numbers have now been bumped to 16 million, 6.5 million and 4.2 million respectively. For 2011, Whitmore is very bullish on the iPad, expecting sales to leap from his original estimate of 22 million units up to a whopping 28 million. His iPhone estimate moved from 55 million for 2011 up to 60 million units. The latter number doesn't include a Verizon iPhone, which he expects would add anywhere from 5 to 7 million units (although it's not clear how many of those would be cannibalizing AT&T's potential sales). We'll find out for sure how things are shaping up for Apple when the company hosts a quarterly earnings call on January 18. Mike Rose is also speculating that Apple will host a Stevenote by January 20 to announce the Verizon iPhone.
Is Apple actually the number one computer maker in the US?
Just last week, we reported that Apple had made its way into the third spot for computer makers in the US (with an impressive 10.6 percent market share), and surely this has helped to boost Apple's stock price as of late. But how would those numbers change if the iPad were to be included as a PC? According to Fortune, that's the question that Deutsche Bank's Chris Whitmore has answered. He notes that including the iPad in PC sales would easily push Apple to the number one spot with a staggering 25 percent of the market. If we keep in mind the fact that the iPad is the fastest selling gadget of all time, the results make sense. Whitmore's argument is that if the iPad is stealing market share from netbooks, then it is logical to include it in Apple's PC sales numbers. I agree with Whitmore's take, and I think that the iPad is truly astounding. I have no problem thinking of the iPad as a personal computer because in my own experience, the use of my MacBook has sharply declined since acquiring an iPad. What are your thoughts, though? Do you think the iPad is just a glorified iPod touch and should not be included here? Or do you think that Apple, like HP (we assume), should be allowed to include the sale of tablets in its PC sales numbers?
Deutsche Bank says IT warms to iPhone
Deutsche Bank analyst Chris Whitmore says corporate IT is warming up to the iPhone. In a research note published yesterday das analyst says, "There is growing evidence that the iPhone is making inroads into the Enterprise." Whitmore thinks Apple will sell 2 million iPhones to big business by the end of the year, some through reimbursements to employees and some through IT department purchases. If those numbers hold, the iPhone will own about 7% of the Enterprise smartphone market in 2009, up from the 2% it controlled in 2008. What's up with the shift? Whitmore notes four reasons: User satisfaction - highlighted by the recent J.D. Power surveys of both consumer and business smartphone users Enterprise applications The iPhone's level of innovation The virtual keyboard - according to Whitmore, the thought that business users have to have a physical keyboard on a smartphone has turned out to be a 'fallacy.' However, businesspeople might not agree that they don't need a physical keyboard if their first virtual keyboard isn't on an iPhone. UK researcher Canalys has taken a look at touchscreens and future smartphone purchases. The firm finds the ground shifting the touchscreen's way. Of the 3,000 survey respondents in the UK, Germany, and France, 38% say their next phone will have a finger-oriented touchscreen, while 16% say theirs will have a stylus-operated touchscreen. But a lot of people who have virtual keyboard-only phones miss the physical keys. According to Canalys, 53% of people who own a touchscreen phone say they won't buy another one, though they may have bought the wrong one for them to start. A majority of iPhone and HTC users say they'll keep the virtual keys on their next phones, while less than a third of Sony Ericsson touchscreen phone owners say their next phone won't have buttons. [via Fortune, The Register]
Rumors of a Pre-less Verizon "off base" according to analysts
A dubious rumor from The Street floating around about how Verizon was snubbing the Pre due to lackluster sales and no outlet for its VCast Store (which was a bit too thin to make it onto these virtual pages, in fact) has been questioned by a couple of analysts today. According to Deutsche Bank's Jonathan Goldberg and Morgan Keegan & Co's Tavis McCourt, a combination of supply chain orders and Palm's own 2010 financial projections -- not to mention Verizon's long history with Palm -- all point to a Pre launch on Verizon early next year, as previously rumored by the WSJ and confirmed by Verizon itself in July. Jonathan specifically called the new rumor "off base" and "incorrect," while Tavis says that "We do not have insight as to the marketing support Palm will get from Verizon, but we see little risk in not getting a placement at this carrier." Analyst fight! Read - Analyst debunk on AllThingsD Read - Original story on The Street
Deutsche Telekom eyeing Sprint Nextel for acquisition?
With T-Mobile UK and Orange now having to (potentially) learn to play nice, Deutsche Telekom is already looking ahead to its next big target: Sprint Nextel. According to a Telegraph report, the telecom giant, with an estimated value of $60.45 billion, has called in advisers from Deutsche Bank as it reportedly prepares to submit an offer to the $10.6 billion-valued Now Network within the next three weeks. The assimilation of Sprint and Deutsche Telekom subsidiary T-Mobile US under the same umbrella could give second-place AT&T a fight with a 78.2 million-strong customer base... but that said, we wouldn't anticipate any quick or smooth merger given the US carriers rely on substantially different bands (CDMA vs. GSM) for service. Hey, there's always WiMAX might come into play. Obviously there's a lot of unanswered questions here, but at this point it's all speculation given no actual offer has been thrown on the table -- and we bet Hesse will have some choice words on the matter. Keep an eye out on this one, things could very quickly get very, very interesting here. [Thanks to everyone who sent this in!]
Analyst Roundup: Black Friday pretty good for Apple
Apple met or beat analyst expectations for sales over the weekend, selling 13 Macs and 3.4 iPhones every hour, according to one Piper Jaffray estimate. Kaufman Bros. analyst Shaw Wu said that Apple's Black Friday promotions helped drive retail store traffic, according to reports from distributors. Wu also noted that the iPod touch is sold out at Amazon.com, which leads him to believe that Apple could sell $10 billion worth of products this quarter. Thomas Weisel Partners' Doug Reid got the impression that Apple sales were up from last year. He was less optimistic about Dell's retail performance at Best Buy locations, noting that salespeople there were not strongly recommending Dell models at 35 stores they checked. Weisel analysts expect Apple to sell 2.4 million Macs during the fourth quarter. Deutsche Bank analysts also conducted their own checks over the weekend, and found demand to be "solid," considering the current global economic woes. They expect Apple to sell 5 million iPhones this quarter, and reiterated their "buy" rating and price target of $150 per share. AAPL was down slightly in morning trading.
