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Gene Munster: Don't expect long lines for iPad 2
Gene Munster, a senior research analyst for Piper Jaffray, expects the lines for Apple's iPad 2 to be shorter than they were for the original iPad in 2010. Even so, Munster predicts Apple will sell over 1 million of the hotly anticipated iPad 2 in its first 28 days on the market. When the original iPad launched last year, it was initially available at about 1,200 storefronts. This year, the iPad 2 will launch at over 10,000 locations in the United States. Customers swooning over the iPad 2 can join a queue at their local Apple Store or at any Best Buy, Target, Walmart, AT&T, or Verizon location. The broad variety of choices should result in thousands of shorter lines rather than hundreds of massive crowds. Some Apple customers quietly "protested" against Munster's predictions for shorter lines. At least one avid camper already began his campaign to be one of the first to score an iPad 2 at the Knox Street Apple Store in Texas. Even Munster admits the Friday evening launch time, 5 pm on March 11, could still draw large crowds at some stores. My guess is the long wait will be worth it for that ultimate Apple fan in Texas. It's a bold statement of pride for fans of the company. And your name will live on in the annals of Apple rumor sites as that guy who camped out for the iPad 2. That's worth something...isn't it?
Munster: Mac sales up 20 percent this year
Apple's Mac sales are up 20 percent year-over-year and on target to meet expected sales of 3.6 million units in the March quarter, according to new domestic sales data from the NPD Group. Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster revealed the figures, and he says that he believes early numbers from the first month of Apple's second quarter of fiscal year 2011 mean Apple is on course to meet Wall Street expectations. Investors are expecting year-over-year growth of around 22 percent in the March quarter, and although growth in the US has only been around 20 percent, Munster notes that Apple has seen faster growth of the Mac platform in international markets. The sales figures may receive a further boost if Apple does indeed revamp the MacBook Pro line later this week. Munster believes that there is also continuing strong demand for the new MacBook Air, noting that the entry-level 11-inch model with its $999 price point currently occupies the most space in Apple Stores and has supported portable sales while users wait for the revamped MacBook Pro. The NPD numbers also include US iPod sales, down 10 percent year-over-year in January. However, predicting sales based on NPD figures is difficult since international iPod sales represent a larger mix than international Mac sales. That said, Munster says Apple is on track to sell between 9.8 million and 10.3 million iPods in the March quarter, 5-10 percent less than during the same period in 2010.
The kids are iAlright, says Gene Munster
Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster says more kids want iPhones. The Apple 2.0 blog has Mr. Munster hanging out with high schoolers for one of his semi-annual surveys of teen buying habits in the US. In a research note on the survey, Munster said, "Apple's dominance in the [consumer electronics] and online music markets is going seemingly unchecked." According to his findings: Plans to buy an iPhone in the next six months have risen from 16% a year ago to 22% last fall to 31% today 14% of the kids surveyed already own an iPhone, up from last year's 8%, but down a point from last fall's 15% 87% of the kids surveyed own an MP3 player, 92% of which are iPods. While 82% of teens download music, only 43% do it legally. But, of that 43%, 92% say they buy their music from Apple's iTunes Store. All of that gives Apple the hand that rocks the cradle. Or as Munster puts it, "...the teen demographic is a critical component of long-term growth in the digital music and mobile markets. And Apple is taking its leading position in music and mobile markets." [via Fortune]
Apple to make an HDTV within two to four years?
The famous Gene Munster, an analyst at Piper Jaffray, has another wacky prediction for us: within the next two years, he says, Apple will release a connected HDTV. Unlikely, to say the least -- the thinking around the virtual TUAW offices is that Munster's way off base on this one. Not only is the HDTV market pretty darn price sensitive (Apple is, of course, not one to compete on price), but Apple has always considered television "a hobby," and they're not likely to take on a whole new market unless they think they can do something different. However, we'll give Munster his chance. He says that combining "hardware, software, and content will become a key selling point for TVs" in the future, and Apple does that very, very well. He says that the natural evolution for the Apple TV is to build an all-in-one solution with a screen for about $2000, and that Apple might even offer a subscription service in order to completely oversee the producer-to-consumer relationship. Admittedly, that does sound like something Apple might want to do. Munster also says that such a service could be ported to the iPhone and iPad for a wireless solution as well, and that makes it a pretty tempting idea. Yet again, that presumes Apple wants to get involved in television, and with most of their attention already focused on bringing content to the iPad, that's a bit of a stretch. I guess we'll wait and see. Would you buy an all-in-one TV and subscription from Apple if that's what they decided to do?
First iPad sales estimates: four million this year, double that in 2011
Even though the device won't be released for another two months, Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray has been quick to revise his sales estimates for the iPad. His former estimate of 1.9 million units sold in the first 12 months was based on an estimated average price tag of $600; now that we know the iPad is priced much lower than that, Munster has revised his estimate accordingly. With the official pricing revealed, Munster now projects iPad sales of 3-4 million units in the first twelve months and double that amount in 2011, which would generate $4.6 billion in revenue for Apple next year. Munster doesn't think the iPad will cannibalize Mac sales, however. "The gadget is a premium mobile device, not a computer," Munster believes, and goes on to say that "consumers looking for an affordable portable computer will likely stick with the MacBook lineup." Munster thinks it far more likely that the iPad will cannibalize sales of the iPod touch, and has revised his sales estimate of that device downward by 1.8 million units for 2010. I can tell you at least one person who won't be part of that 3-4 million sales for the iPad: me. When we at TUAW posted about our dreams for the then-unnamed tablet last August, I said, "In order for me to get really excited about an iTablet, it would have to be more than a gap-filler between the iPhone and the MacBook. It would have to be revolutionary, a device that does something neither existing product is able to do." Based on what I've seen about the iPad so far, though, the device seems to be something targeted toward people who don't already have that particular setup and are missing either an iPhone/iPod touch or a MacBook. That might be exactly what 3-4 million people are looking for this year, and maybe 8 million more next year, but it's not something that suits my own computing needs in any way. What do you think? Are you planning on getting an iPad and joining Munster's legions? Let us know in the comments.
Gene Munster: iPhone on multiple U.S. carriers in 2010
Gene Munster, the Piper Jaffrey senior research analyst who usually hits the nail on the head when it comes to Apple forecasts, thinks that Apple will move to multiple U.S. carriers within the next year. He believe that this will happen next summer, which has been the time when Apple has introduced new models of the iPhone.Munster noted that having multiple carriers in a market has helped Apple to achieve greater success in terms of market penetration. He pointed to France as an example; originally, Apple inked an exclusive arrangement with Orange. When it moved to a multi-carrier deal, Apple's market share in France jumped to about the 40 percent range. In the U.S., the iPhone's market share is only in the mid-teens.Many industry pundits expect the next iPhone carrier to be Verizon, since they are beginning a transition to a new, iPhone-compatible 4G network (LTE) in the next year. This would make the transition rather simple for Apple, since they wouldn't have to design an EV-DO iPhone, but instead just use the current hardware design.Update: Per TUAW reader Ben C., the Verizon 4G transition is not expected to be completed until 2013. In addition, a CDMA-based iPhone would need to be deployed for Verizon. Thanks for the correction and explanation.[via LoopInsight]
Apple: Paranoid
Do you remember the teaser ads for the iPhone 3G? Two uniformed guards carried a locked metal crate through a labyrinth of secure tunnels, keycard points at every door, and monitored by security cameras? Turns out the real Apple isn't too far from that, according to Brad Stone and Ashlee Vance at the New York Times. They cite former employees and analysts who all agree that Apple, as Gene Munster put it, "a total black box." Apple, in an effort to guard their company's secrets until the day they're launched have instituted a culture of fear among employees: Loose lips sink ships. Apple's campus is, according to the article, "a maze of security doors" where employees must swipe their badges and enter codes on numeric keypads -- presumably not only to restrict access, but to serve as a record of who was where if any information does leak out. Many work areas are monitored by closed-circuit TV. According to one unnamed employee, "workers in the most critical product-testing rooms must cover up devices with black cloaks when they are working on them, and turn on a red warning light when devices are unmasked so that everyone knows to be extra-careful." I've worked in high-security areas before for the U.S. military, and the big difference between the military and Apple is fear. Lots of fear. A secure military workspace is comfortable, but formal: If you catch a glimpse of something you shouldn't, it's not a big deal, just forget what you saw. Apple employees on the other hand, according to the article, are petrified of losing their job, being sued, or both. In Apple's quiver is another piercing arrow: Misinformation. Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster relates a story of how a high-ranking Apple executive lied to his face about having "no interest in developing a cheap iPod with no screen." Cut to a few weeks later, and Apple releases the iPod shuffle. Lying business executives are nothing new, and shouldn't be surprising in the least. But while many companies cultivate productive relationships with the media, Apple's is mostly antagonistic. "They don't communicate," Munster said. Why bother? The thrill. Sure, they're protecting their intellectual property, but it's all about the thrill. They can create these spectacles where they literally unveil a new product in front of a salivating audience -- including Apple employees -- who have never seen anything like it before. It's thrilling. Apple's business hinges on creating products that excite and creating that excitement surrounding them. They've found a secret formula that works. In the words of Steve Jobs, "there is no theory of protecting content other than keeping secrets." "The problem, of course, is that there are many smart people in the world, some with a lot of time on their hands, who love to discover such secrets."
Estimates of 500K iPhone 3G S weekend sales too low by half
It's a good thing Gene Munster shaded his anticipatory numbers a bit over the weekend, otherwise he'd be in the market for a new crystal ball. As mentioned yesterday, the signs were pointing to a bigger opening weekend for the latest handset from Apple, and the results did not disappoint: in a company press release this morning, Apple announced sales of 'over a million' iPhone 3G S units through Sunday 6/21. Also noted in the brief release were the six million downloads of the iPhone 3.0 software update; no details on the number of iPod touch users who have also updated. In addition to the raw number -- impressive enough -- there are two other tidbits in this release that bear mentioning. One, it's got a quote from Steve Jobs; this reinforces the notion that El Jefe Esteban is on his way back to the iCEO seat on a more active basis, as reported in the Wall Street Journal on Friday. Two, it looks like bloggers and journalists aren't the only ones having a problem with the odd spacing on Apple's latest product name; the press release repeatedly refers to the new phone as the "iPhone 3GS." We feel your pain.[via AllThingsD]
3G S sales expectations shift higher, Apple offers $30 credit for activation issues
It's Father's Day here in the USA, UK and Canada (best wishes to all the Mac daddies out there!), and if the tea-leaf-reading over the iPhone 3G S launch is accurate, it looks like quite a few of those dads may have gotten a shiny new phone as a gift from the spouse and kids. Which would have been really thoughtful and unexpected. If I had gotten one. Anyway. The pre-launch expectation from analyst Gene Munster was for a comparatively modest 500K units sold over the weekend vs. the 3G million-phone launch, but now his firm has suggested that may have been a conservative number, as noted by AppleInsider. Between AT&T's citing of 'hundreds of thousands' of pre-orders for the phone, and O2 announcing that first-day sales for the 3G S blew past the totals for the 3G last year, it's possible that the 3G S could creep up towards that million-phone number and blockbuster territory. Despite (or perhaps due to) the brisk sales pace, AT&T's activation infrastructure did not seem to be ready for the influx of account changes; this is a familiar situation, as last year's 3G launch triggered similar delays. Many new buyers (including our own Steve Sande) were faced with activation delays between two hours and two days. In recognition of the aggravation and inconvenience, Apple has begun emailing affected users with the offer of a $30 iTunes credit to be delivered Monday morning, according to Everything iCafe. If you got a credit email, please let us know.
Munster: Apple suppliers negotiating parts deals for sub-$700 tablet
In a research note to clients, Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster suggested that Apple is developing a 7-to-10-inch tablet priced at $500 to $700, perhaps ready for the public in 2010. According to AppleInsider, Munster's contacts in the supply chain haven't seen a prototype of the device, but are in discussions with Apple to supply components for something at that size and price point. Munster believes that Apple could adjust the iPhone SDK to allow for multiple display resolutions. Apps like Safari and Mail, he says, would benefit from the additional screen real estate. He also mentions that with the larger screen, more than one traditional iPhone app could be run at once. As for timing, Munster suggests that the device could be ready next year, and possibly be subsidized by a wireless carrier. As with most analysis of this kind, this is two parts hearsay, one part "interpretation of conference call statements," and seven parts wishful thinking. In providing technical details about a product that may not exist, Munster is writing checks that Apple might not be able to cash. Is this something you'd buy? Is it even going to happen? Sound off in comments.
Reminder: Q1-2009 conference call liveblog, today at 5 p.m. ET
Just a reminder: Be sure to come back today at 5 p.m. Eastern (that's 2 p.m. Pacific) for Apple's First Quarter 2009 Results Conference Call. We'll be liveblogging the occasion, with contributions from your favorite TUAW bloggers, and yours truly. Apple is streaming audio from the call here. A recording of the call will be available at that page for a few weeks afterward. Fortune's Apple 2.0 blog has its roundup of projected Q1 sales numbers from Bernstein Research's Toni Sacconaghi and Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster: Mac sales. Munster: 2.5 million to 2.6 million. Sacconaghi: 2.57 million. iPod sales. Munster: 18.6 million. Sacconaghi: 18.1 million. iPhone sales: Munster: 6.4 million. Sacconaghi: 3.5 million to 4 million. In related news, AAPL hit a two-year low yesterday, closing at its nadir of $78.20 per share. Also, Bloomberg is reporting that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission will review Apple's 10-K filing from last year. Apple hasn't been accused of any wrongdoing, but Bloomberg says the SEC wants to make sure investors weren't being misled about Steve Jobs' health. (Via Macworld.) More coverage of the earnings report is available at our sister site Blogging Stocks.
Munster: New Macs for MWSF, small iPhone by second quarter '09
Our favorite-named analyst, Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster, predicts that Apple will announce new Mac models at Macworld Expo, and a smaller iPhone for the March quarter. Piper Jaffray expects that Apple will sell 45 million iPhones during 2009, though that estimate is predicated on the fact that Apple will release a lower-cost iPhone model early in the year, priced between $99 and $149. As for Macworld Expo, the expectation is that there won't be any groundbreaking announcements, since Phil Schiller will be giving the presentation. They do expect new iMac or Mac mini models, however. Piper Jaffray is maintaining its "buy" rating, and $235 price target, on shares of AAPL. The stock was up slightly during morning trading. [Via StreetInsider.]
Analyst Roundup: Morgan Stanley pooh-poohs, iPhone sales looking bright
Morgan Stanley analysts yesterday cut AAPL's price target to $95, mostly citing the weak economy. They said that despite price cuts, extreme interest in the iPhone, Mac users' high satisfaction, and marketshare momentum for Mac sales, the quarter will be slow for Apple. Blog Notable Calls said it wouldn't have been surprised if AAPL slipped by five points yesterday, but instead the stock gained 34 cents a share before the closing bell. On a brighter note, Kaufman Bros. analyst Shaw Wu sees promise in iPhone gift cards, according to Fortune's Apple 2.0 blog. As with any gift card, Apple collects revenue from the customer up front. However, Apple can't report the revenue until the phone is activated, which will likely be during the first quarter of next year. Wu anticipates Apple will sell 6 million iPhone handsets during the company's fiscal Q1 2009, which includes October, November and December 2008. Morgan Stanley analyst Kathryn Huberty thinks Apple will sell only 4 million that same quarter. In the same Apple 2.0 story, Philip Elmer-DeWitt notes that Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster looked at how many units Walmart might sell, after pricing details leaked on Monday. He conjectures that each Walmart store could sell 1,284 iPhones in 2009, accounting for nearly 10 percent of Apple's worldwide iPhone sales. AAPL was up by $2.50 or so in midday trading.
$800 for a new MacBook?
Inquisitr.com is reporting that an Apple retailer sent them a copy of a new price sheet that includes a MacBook at the $800 price point. The sheet, which is apparently sent to retailers about 10 days in advance of launch, lists 12 price points (including options for MacBook, MacBook Pro, and MacBook Air) between $800 and $3,100. Older price lists only have eight trim levels. Specifications were not included on the sheet. Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster said yesterday that if Apple chose to exclude a sub-$1,000 notebook, their stock would suffer more than from any margin impact such a device would have. If true, this would be Apple's first foray into the sub-$1,000 laptop market since the $999 iBook.
Munster: Apple overestimated Q3 margin impacts
Gene Munster is skeptical that Apple's guidance of lower margins for the rest of the year in its Q3 conference call back in July, and expects the company to continue to outperform expectations. The Piper Jaffray analyst said that lower prices for NAND flash memory will offset any reductions in price for new iPods introduced last month. Munster speculates that even with an introduction of a sub-$1,000 MacBook before the end of the year, Apple's margins will remain healthy. Yes, it will have an impact, but not to the degree that Apple execs hinted in their phone call: Munster thinks margins would only fall to around 30 percent. In fact, Munster says "investors would see the lack of redesigned, lower-priced Macs as a more significant negative than they would a 30 percent GM guide in the December quarter." (Emphasis mine.) He reiterated his "buy" rating. Munster's price target for AAPL is still higher than many others (at least recently), at $250 per share. [Via Ars and AppleInsider.]
Analyst roundup: 5m iPhones for Q4, gloomy Christmas ahead
Widely-read Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster is revising his prior estimate for the quarter ending a week from Tuesday, and his outlook is even rosier than before. Instead of 4.1 million iPhone 3Gs, Munster expects Apple will sell 5 million of the handsets. Likewise, he's revising his estimates for Mac sales up by 300,000 units, and iPod sales up by 200,000 units. If he's right, it will mean Apple will have sold 7.4 million iPhones so far this year. That puts Apple well on track to meet its own prediction of selling 10 million handsets for calendar year 2008. On the other hand, we have Morgan Stanley, who cut price targets for nine hardware companies, including Apple. Morgan cited a "fragile consumer," slower overall spending, and a stronger dollar (the last of which impacts sales abroad for U.S. companies). This comes after a weak August for Mac sales, which -- in context -- only means that Apple's numbers didn't grow quite as fast as they did in prior months. They still sold 23 percent more Mac units than August 2007, but that was sharply lower than July 2008's 43 percent increase over July 2007. [Via Fortune, Silicon Alley Insider, and 24/7 Wall St.] Thanks, Robert!
Piper Jaffray analyst predicts Sept. MacBook updates
Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster is speculating that Apple will hold a special event in early September to announce new iPods and MacBooks, according to a research note he released. Munster is bullish on seeing Apple enter the sub-$1,000 market for its MacBook line, and has been saying so since last month. He also anticipates a new form factor for the MacBook Pro line, noting that its exterior design (and that of its predecessor, the PowerBook G4) has only slightly changed over the last five-and-a-half years. In the same note, he suggested that larger-capacity iPod shuffles and nanos are on the way, but with no change in pricing. He said that the iPod touch could even be redesigned and priced at $199. Looking into the future, Munster said he thinks a touchscreen Mac portable isn't ready now, but could be available closer to 2010, while a redesigned (even smaller) MacBook Air could hit store shelves next year. [Via Barron's.]
iPhone 3G shortage could last for a month
Contrary to other analysts' rosy comments about Apple's supply chain, Gene Munster from Piper Jaffray is estimating that shortages in the supply of iPhone 3G handsets will last until mid-August. Munster said that he'd wager "we'll see problems for another two to four weeks," adding, "early demand has been more than [Apple] expected." Apple's own supply-checking tool reports that a little over a quarter of Apple Stores had iPhone 3Gs to sell today. The hardest model to find is the black, 16GB version. It was available in only 18 stores worldwide. AT&T stores are also "nearly out." [Via Macworld.]
