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Gene Munster predicts! This time, Apple television coming in 2016
For all the fun we Apple bloggers have with Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster's insistence that Apple's going to come out with some sort of amazing smart TV, you have to hand it to the man for two things. First, his persistence in believing that dream and second, his ability to go public yet again with a new prediction on when Apple's fabled smart television will appear. Munster first made his prediction at Business Insider's Ignition conference in 2011, and he's been wrong each and every year. Saying that he was "paying penance" for being incorrect on the timing of the mythical device, Munster doubled down on his bet by saying that it will arrive in 2016. He based that prediction on a sudden realization that "Apple takes a long time between products." Based on a market for connected TVs of about 220 million units worldwide, Munster boldly "assumes" that they'll get about 10 percent of the market, or sell 22 million units in the first year. And even better: it's going to cost about US$1,500 or "double a comparable-sized TV". A look at Amazon shows that LED TVs in the 50 - 60 inch range are selling for about $750, so now he's also predicted the size of the unit. Personally, I'm looking forward to the Ignition conference in 2016, when Gene Munster talks about how the Apple smart television will be arriving in 2020... Now, sit back and listen to the man himself:
Daily Update for May 15, 2013
It's the TUAW Daily Update, your source for Apple news in a convenient audio format. You'll get all the top Apple stories of the day in three to five minutes for a quick review of what's happening in the Apple world. You can listen to today's Apple stories by clicking the inline player (requires Flash) or the non-Flash link below. To subscribe to the podcast for daily listening through iTunes, click here. No Flash? Click here to listen. Subscribe via RSS
Piper Jaffray: Half of US teens own an iPhone, iPad very popular
Piper Jaffray has published a "Taking Stock with Teens" report [PDF] that examines US teenagers' buying habits. The study looked at two groups of teenagers around 16 years of age: 1,600 from upper-income families and 3,600 from average-income families. The study found that nearly half (48 percent) of American teenagers own an iPhone -- an 8 percent rise since the previous survey. Further, 62 percent of teens plan on making the iPhone their next smartphone purchase. The survey also found that 51 percent of teens owned a tablet, up from 44 percent in fall 2012. The iPad share of that is 68 percent, down from 72 percent in the previous survey. Additionally, 17 percent of teens said they plan to buy a tablet in the next six months, with 68 percent of those planning to buy an iPad. And 54 percent said they planned to buy a regular iPad, while 14 percent said they would buy an iPad mini. Apple information aside, the entire report is worth taking a look at. It covers everything from teen shopping habits, to social media habits, to movie rental and video game habits.
Mac sales up as iMac supply improves
Mac sales were down for the holiday 2012 quarter due to supply constraints on the new iMac models, but NPD Group data is showing that sales are up 14 percent year over year for January and February. According to Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster, that growth is due to improved availability of the all-in-one iMacs that began shipping in November 2012. Munster believes that total global Mac sales for the March quarter will be down 5 percent year over year, but provided some positive spin in saying that there's room for "some slight upside." Munster noted that iMac sales are less impacted by cannibalization by sales of iPads, so the "vast majority of the y/y unit decline in December was likely supply." Those supply issues were apparently caused by problems with a new screen lamination processed used in the ultra-thin late 2012 iMacs.
Analyst: Mac sales up 31% for January 2013
Despite ending on a down note for the first quarter of Apple's 2013 fiscal year, Mac sales seem to be on the rise. Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster has crunched the latest NPD sales figures and concluded that US sales of Mac desktops increased by 31 percent in January when compared to the same month last year. This is despite the fact that the wait time for iMac orders is still greater than two weeks in the US and even longer in other parts of the world. Still, Munster notes that Apple has seen improvements in its shipments of the machines since the end of 2012. If you recall, Mac sales were down 17 percent for the quarter ending December 31, 2012. For its part, Apple has said that it isn't entirely sure it will be able to meet demand for iMac during its fiscal second quarter. It remains to be seen if the trend of increased sales will continue through the end of March or if this was just a jump created by initial orders being filled. In other sales-related news, Munster concluded that iPod sales actually climbed 2 percent in January versus the sale month last year. Piper Jaffray had previously predicted a 17 percent decline in iPod sales for the January through March quarter, so it'll be interesting to see where things end up.
Daily Update for April 3, 2012
It's the TUAW Daily Update, your source for Apple news in a convenient audio format. You'll get all the top Apple stories of the day in three to five minutes for a quick review of what's happening in the Apple world. You can listen to today's Apple stories by clicking the inline player (requires Flash) or the non-Flash link below. To subscribe to the podcast for daily listening through iTunes, click here. No Flash? Click here to listen. Subscribe via RSS
Apple stock named top pick for 2012
If part of your Christmas gift stash includes a lot of cash, you might want to consider spending it on shares of Apple, Inc. Ticonderoga Securities has named the company's stock the 'top pick' for investors in 2012, mirroring the recommendation made last year by the group. Of the 20 companies covered by Ticonderoga, Apple was the best performer with a growth rate of 26 percent. Ticonderoga analyst Brian White was quoted on AppleInsider as saying "We believe Apple's portfolio in 2012 has the opportunity to crete more excitement around the story with our expectation for the unveiling of iTV, an 'iPad mini' and a major upgrade with the iPhone 5, while we expect the company to finally come to grips with its surging cash balance and issue its first cash dividend." The possibility of a cash dividend to shareholders was roundly dismissed by late Apple CEO Steve Jobs in 2010, as the company has preferred in the past to hold onto cash reserves to take advantage of "strategic opportunities." White isn't the only Wall Street analyst painting a rosy picture for AAPL in 2012. Longtime Apple bull Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray sees growth in almost every Apple product segment with the exception of the iPod. Munster thinks that the next-generation iPhone will have a slightly larger screen and will launch in late summer or early fall. Munster also believes that an Apple television will become a reality this year, and that the company might supplant a new third-generation iPad with a lower-priced entry as well.
Piper Jaffray: iTunes Match likely breaking even for Apple
Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray believes that for all of Apple's success with iTunes Match so far, the company is probably still only breaking even on the service. Sure, $24.99 a year from all of the service's users is a lot of money flowing in, but there's a lot going the other way as well, from server costs to music royalties and all of the other charges with running such a complicated service. Munster believes there are 135 million active iTunes users in America, so if only a small fraction of those subscribe to the service, there's a nice chunk of change coming in to Apple. But at the same time, Apple isn't expecting huge earnings from Match; it's essentially a promotion to help get people into the iTunes system and a solid mechanism for keeping them there. Apple would much rather sell you devices to listen to your iTunes library, therefore it's not quite so concerned about how you get that music in the first place. As a result, Munster's guess that Match isn't a huge moneymaker for Apple is probably correct.
Apple.com fifth most-visited retail site on Black Friday
Black Friday was a successful day for online retailers. Customers spent more than US$816 million, a 26 percent increase over Black Friday 2010. Apple was one of the beneficiaries of this rise in online sales. The Cupertino company climbed its way into the top 5 and became the fifth most-visited retail website on Black Friday, says a report from Comscore. The company trailed only Target, Best Buy, Wal-Mart and Amazon. Analysts's reports on Apple's Black Friday sales were also favourable. Deutsche Bank's Chris Whitmore said Apple stores overseas had a hard time keeping the iPhone 4S in stock. Over 75 percent of stores he polled had sold their entire inventory of iPhone 4S handsets on Black Friday. Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster's research suggests the surveyed Apple store(s) were selling iPads at a rate of 14.8 per hour. Macs also were popular and left the store(s) at a rate of 10.1 per hour.
Piper Jaffray reports on Apple's impressive Black Friday sales (Updated)
As reported by Philip Elmer-DeWitt at Fortune's Apple 2.0 column, Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster crunched his Black Friday sales numbers and found that Macs and iPads were popular gifts. Munster estimated the Apple store(s) he surveyed sold about 10.1 Macs per hour and 14.8 iPads per hour. This is a 23% increase in Mac sales and a 68% increase in iPad sales year over year. Munster also counted the foot traffic and found that retail store(s) in this survey averaged about 544 people per hour. The Piper Jaffray analyst and his team collected these numbers by standing in the retail store(s) and counting people and products as they left. Another report suggests the iPhone 4S sold equally well overseas. Deutsche Bank's Chris Whitmore polled local Apple stores and found that 75% had sold their entire inventory of the 4S on Black Friday. These stores were quickly replenished and, 30% of stores were sold out again the next day. Quarterly numbers won't be available until January, but these early reports suggest Apple is starting strong this holiday quarter. Updated the Piper Jaffray report section with the word store(s). Business Insider reports that Munster and his team surveyed "Apple stores", while Fortune said Munster was in a store.
MacBook Air, Mac mini drive strong Q3 sales
The NPD group released its sales data for the current quarter and things are looking good for Apple. Mac sales are up 22% year-over-year due primarily to the release of OS X Lion and new MacBook Air and Mac Mini hardware in July. In a research note, Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster crunched these numbers and presented a slightly conservative quarterly estimate. Munster believes sales climbed during the summer months due to this new hardware and will likely fall off in September after the initial enthusiasm wears off. Taking this seasonal drop into account, Munster predicts Apple will sell 4.4 to 4.6 million Macs in the quarter, a 13%- 18% year-over-year increase. Munster also estimates Mac revenue will account for 20% of Apple's overall revenue in the current quarter. Looking back at last quarter, Apple sold 3.9M Macs (14% yoy increase), but these were a mix of new MacBook Pros, iMacs and older MacBook Air and Mac mini models. With new hardware gracing almost every Mac product line except the Mac Pro, Mac sales should remain steady.
Survey: iPhone retention rate at 94%, interest in iPhone 5 high
Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster suggests interest in the iPhone remains strong. In a recent research note, he points to a small survey of 216 mobile phone owners in Minneapolis that shows 64% will buy an iPhone as their next handset. Breaking it down, 94% of iPhone owners plan to buy another iPhone. 42% of Android and 67% of BlackBerry owners expect to make the switch to the iPhone when they buy their next handset. Most of these switchers (60%) are waiting for the iPhone 5. This number is even higher for Verizon subscribers with 74% of non-iPhone owners waiting for the iPhone 5 to jump platforms. In his report to investors, Munster estimates the iPhone's market share could double after the launch of the iPhone 5. Apple will grab a substantial share from BlackBerry and a smaller amount from Android. When digesting these survey results, keep in mind the small sample size. Though interesting, the survey results may not represent the millions of iPhone and smartphone owners in the States.
NPD suggests Apple had another record Mac quarter
A new report from NPD says that Apple has probably done it again, racking up yet another quarter of record Mac sales. NPD puts the number of Macs sold at 4.2 million, which would be a year-over-year gain of 12%, and make for the best record Apple's Mac sales have ever had. US Mac sales in general are down, according to Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster, but since the reasons for that are the impending Lion release, as well as a possible new version of the MacBook Air coming sometime this month, he expects sales to rebound as soon as both of those things actually happen. In short, though these are still preliminary figures, it's looking like Apple will have a solid June quarter here, and Mac sales should be even higher later on this year, especially when you throw Back to School and all of the other big news in the mix. Macs have never been more popular. Stay tuned -- we'll be liveblogging the results of Apple's conference call tomorrow, so come back then to hear the official numbers.
Almost half of iOS developers surveyed also code for Android
Slightly less than half of iOS developers surveyed at WWDC also write applications for Android, a little over a third also code for BlackBerry devices and 36% focus only on iOS. These figures and more come from a Piper Jaffray survey of 45 iOS developers at WWDC. Besides platform preferences, the survey also reveals the following: 100% of developers write apps for the iPhone and 93% write for the iPad only 7% of developers code for the Mac 100% believe that iOS is the best platform for monetization 100% believe iOS is the easiest platform for development 51% of developers think iOS has the highest potential for growth, 41% believe in Android 38% of iOS developers dislike Apple's strict limitations Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster points to the results of this survey as evidence that Apple's dedicated and talented developers are one of its most valuable assets.
Munster: Mac sales off to 'slow' start in April, but Q3 looks good
Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster issued a report on Apple's Mac sales so far this quarter. According to US sales data compiled by NPD, Apple was off to a "slow" start in April, with only 9 percent year over year growth from April 2010 sales. However, Munster points out that by the same timeframe in 2010, Apple had updated its MacBook and MacBook Pro lines, which spiked sales. This year, so far, only the MacBook Pros have been updated. Wall Street is expecting Apple to post 22 percent sales growth for Q3, which ends in June. Munster says Apple shouldn't have a problem hitting that number, despite the slow April start. Munster says the "Comps [comparable timeframe sales] ease dramatically in the month of June," which only had an 11 percent YOY growth last year. Munster also notes that iPod sales seem to be tracking better than expected. He had originally expected iPod sales to decline by 10-15 percent, but now says the unit decline could be better than he was expecting.
iPhone use by teens at a record high and growing
Piper Jaffray has been polling US teens on their iPhone adoption rates twice a year, and the current bi-annual report was released yesterday. In the survey, 4500 teens were asked about the iPhones that they already own or plan to purchase over the next six months. Of those surveyed, 17 percent responded that they already own an iPhone, and a full 37 percent told Piper Jaffray that they plan to buy one (or have their parents buy it for them) over the next six months. If this sample is any indication, the future looks great for Apple in the teen segment. I thought the six month time frame was telling, since even the most conservative of pundits believe the iPhone 5 will be out six months from now. Apple still owns the MP3 market with 80 percent saying they own such a device, and out of that, 86 percent own some flavor of iPod with everyone else being left in the dust. This is not all hearts and flowers though, since in the poll taken last spring, 92 percent of teens owned an iPod, with total MP3 adoption of 86 percent. It may mean that more teens are using iPhones to listen to music, with over half reporting that they listen to music on their cell phone, the highest number reported for that stat. Though it's not specifically stated, I don't think it would be a stretch to say that more teens are listening to music on Apple devices than any other brands in the category. In a question about tablet sales, 22 percent of teens say they already have one, with another 20 percent planning to buy one in the next six months. I think that we can all agree that the lion's share of those purchases will be iPads as well. [via Apple 2.0]
Apple: iPad 2 demand is "amazing"
"Demand for the next generation iPad 2 has been amazing." That's what Apple's spokesperson Trudy Miller told The Loop, and it's consistent with everyone's anecdotal evidence. Apple released the iPad 2 at 5 PM on Friday evening. Long lines of customers greeted the launch, hoping to be one of the first to own the hugely anticipated device. According to analyst checks, the iPad 2 sold out at many locations before the end of its first night of availability. On Sunday, Apple's online store showed a wait of 3-4 weeks to get any model of the new iPad 2. "We are working hard to get iPad 2 into the hands of every customer who wants one as quickly as possible," said Muller. Apple has not specified how many iPad 2s sold over the weekend. According to the Wall Street Journal, most analysts predict Apple sold between 400,000 and 600,000 units in the tablet's first three days on the market. Some analysts were even more bullish.
Gene Munster: Don't expect long lines for iPad 2
Gene Munster, a senior research analyst for Piper Jaffray, expects the lines for Apple's iPad 2 to be shorter than they were for the original iPad in 2010. Even so, Munster predicts Apple will sell over 1 million of the hotly anticipated iPad 2 in its first 28 days on the market. When the original iPad launched last year, it was initially available at about 1,200 storefronts. This year, the iPad 2 will launch at over 10,000 locations in the United States. Customers swooning over the iPad 2 can join a queue at their local Apple Store or at any Best Buy, Target, Walmart, AT&T, or Verizon location. The broad variety of choices should result in thousands of shorter lines rather than hundreds of massive crowds. Some Apple customers quietly "protested" against Munster's predictions for shorter lines. At least one avid camper already began his campaign to be one of the first to score an iPad 2 at the Knox Street Apple Store in Texas. Even Munster admits the Friday evening launch time, 5 pm on March 11, could still draw large crowds at some stores. My guess is the long wait will be worth it for that ultimate Apple fan in Texas. It's a bold statement of pride for fans of the company. And your name will live on in the annals of Apple rumor sites as that guy who camped out for the iPad 2. That's worth something...isn't it?
Munster: Mac sales up 20 percent this year
Apple's Mac sales are up 20 percent year-over-year and on target to meet expected sales of 3.6 million units in the March quarter, according to new domestic sales data from the NPD Group. Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster revealed the figures, and he says that he believes early numbers from the first month of Apple's second quarter of fiscal year 2011 mean Apple is on course to meet Wall Street expectations. Investors are expecting year-over-year growth of around 22 percent in the March quarter, and although growth in the US has only been around 20 percent, Munster notes that Apple has seen faster growth of the Mac platform in international markets. The sales figures may receive a further boost if Apple does indeed revamp the MacBook Pro line later this week. Munster believes that there is also continuing strong demand for the new MacBook Air, noting that the entry-level 11-inch model with its $999 price point currently occupies the most space in Apple Stores and has supported portable sales while users wait for the revamped MacBook Pro. The NPD numbers also include US iPod sales, down 10 percent year-over-year in January. However, predicting sales based on NPD figures is difficult since international iPod sales represent a larger mix than international Mac sales. That said, Munster says Apple is on track to sell between 9.8 million and 10.3 million iPods in the March quarter, 5-10 percent less than during the same period in 2010.
Apple stock hits a new intra-day all time high and Gene Munster weighs in
Apple stock (AAPL) has hit a new all time intra-day high by a mile, rising 7.25 percent as of about 11 AM. At last look, it's sitting at $329.81 and is happily ringing in the new year on the first day of 2011 trading. It may be totally coincidental, but our old friend Gene Munster, analyst for Piper Jaffray, has announced a few predictions for 2011. The first non-surprise is that he (and just about everyone else) believes that the iPhone will come to Verizon, but he thinks it won't be until the March quarter with a 95 percent probability. I think he's betting low on that one. He gives a 90 percent probability to iTunes offering a cloud-based service and an 80 percent probability that cell phone providers will begin subsidizing 3G iPads (since this is presently happening in other countries, so why not here?). Gene also has some predictions that he considers rock-solid, including new laptops coming soon, a refresh of the Mac Pro in the first half of the year and new iMacs in the second half of 2011. The iPhone 5 will rear its head this summer (I'd bet the house on that one), and the iPad 2, if that's what it winds up being called, will flower in the spring. Another no-brainer will be that new iPods will be out in the fall, but then again, new iPods are always out in the fall. [via The Mac Observer]
