arvind-bhatia
Latest
Analyst: GTA V will launch in Q1 2013, sell 14 million copies
Sterne Agee analyst Arvind Bhatia is predicting big numbers for Grand Theft Auto V something fierce. Bhatia projects Grand Theft Auto V will debut during the first three months of 2013 and will pull in $700 million in revenue for Take-Two Interactive with 14 million copies sold over its launch window – though Bhatia didn't say just how long he considers this launch window to be.This $700 million figure is close to the $775 million earned by Modern Warfare 3 in its first five days of launch back in November, which is an entertainment record that has yet to be bested. Rockstar's previous effort, Grand Theft Auto IV, has shipped over 22 million copies worldwide.
Zynga's paid $300 per new user in the past nine months, says analyst
Zynga has been struggling with its stock price since the IPO late last year, and Sterne Agee analyst Arvind Bhatia says there are more dark days ahead. When you compare Zynga's $120 million marketing budget to its recent rise in only 400,000 new players (about $300 a person), the numbers don't look good: "We know that, on average, these people are spending about $150 or so," says Bhatia, which suggests that Zynga is spending about $300 for every $150 in profit. "That math won't work for very long," obviously.Zynga's spending is indicative of a few trends in social gaming. First, the company has discovered it's very hard to earn new players. Many of Zynga's games are similar, and without really experimenting, it's going to be hard to generate uniques. Second, Zynga's earnings are based on "whales": A small percentage of players who spend big. You need to find a lot of unique free-to-play players to land a few whales, and Bhatia doesn't see Zynga doing that lately.So what's the solution? "Zynga will have to find their next FarmVille," says Bhatia. Until the company finds another phenomenally popular hit and the surge in new players that comes along with it (which is incredibly tough to do), Bhatia expects to see even more problems with Zynga and its stock.
Blizzard's Titan a 'casual' MMO
In case you were worried about a lack of new and accessible MMOs coming down the pike over the next couple of years, the king of casual is riding to the rescue. At least, that's what an analyst at Sterne Agee hinted at on Gamasutra recently. Arvind Bhatia is quoted on the game industry website as saying that Blizzard's product pipeline includes "expansion packs for StarCraft and World of Warcraft, a new Diablo game, [and] a new casual MMO." That casual MMO is of course Titan, the secretive WoW followup that has reportedly gobbled up Blizzard's most experienced designers. While no one outside of Blizzard has any inkling as to Titan's setting, mechanics, or target audience, Bhatia's prediction makes a certain amount of sense given the realities of the MMO marketplace and the costs inherent in developing and marketing AAA titles. Head to Gamasutra for the full report.
EA: 40% of game sales digital, NPD becoming less relevant
Digital sales have been an increasing boon for EA, a source of great profit and growth for the publishing giant, and the company now estimates 40% of games sold are bought through digital channels. Retail is becoming less of an important sector and the publisher feels NPD rankings are decreasing in relevance. Tomorrow, the latest NPD figures for the month of February will be revealed. "Overall, we think the digital growth aspect of the EA story is likely to get even stronger and to impress investors in the coming years," said Arvind Bhatia, Sterne Agee investment firm analyst, during a recent management meeting (via IndustryGamers). Globally, EA still recognizes the importance of retail product, but locally the company is looking to expand its mobile and downloadable offerings, leaning on its new EA Partners divisions to help expand its digital business.
Rumor: GameStop being eyed for purchase by private equity group
GameStop might be worth roughly $3.27 billion, but if reports are correct, a group of folks at a private equity firm may be considering an offer of $4.94 billion (a 33 percent raise over the current, rumor-inflated stock prices) to acquire the publicly held game retailer. The Street is reporting that the rumors of a buyout have already raised stock prices by nearly six percent to $19.86 per share since just five days ago, as of this afternoon. And those rumors could be seen as partially substantiated by the company's lackluster performance on Wall Street as a publicly held company. Sterne, Agee & Leech analyst Arvind Bhatia told The Street, "The company generates strong free cash flow and is not getting respect as a public company." A buyout of GameStop by a private equity firm could mean moving the company's public status to private, not to mention a possible management shakeup (among other things). We asked GameStop corporate for comment and were told, "We do not comment on speculation or rumor," so for now we'll just have to wait and see what shakes out.
Analyst: PS3 continues to set records, Wii and software sales down
Sterne Agee analyst Arvind Bhatia says that Sony is in for a good 2010 -- he expects the PlayStation 3 to experience its largest year-over-year growth from last month's sales among all consoles, and for Sony to beat its own record from the month before for the console's best sales ever. The PS3 appears to be on a roll, and January sales are expected to continue the trend. Bhatia also says that the Wii's sales are being hurt by "meaningful shortages," and points out that just 28% of the stores NPD checked in January had Nintendo's console in stock. Bhatia also suggests that Xbox 360 sales would be up slightly, due to a big GameStop promotion, and that software sales would be down in general. Not unexpected, given that January almost never matches up to the frenzy of the holiday season, but 2010 has already started off with a bang in terms of quality releases. NPD's official info, released soon, will let us know if there were sales to match.
Analyst: Assassin's Creed 2 to sell 8.5 million by April
Considering Assassin's Creed 2 managed to stab 1.6 million wallets in its opening week alone, 8.5 million units sold by March isn't that crazy of a forecast. Add star talent and some upcoming DLC to give the game a second wind, and that potential sales figure seems somewhat reasonable -- even for a titlle that doesn't feature machine guns, 'nades and nukes. When we saw Stern Agee analyst Arvind Bhatia call that very number over on Industry Gamers, we kinda shrugged and thought, "Sure, it's possible." Bhatia says Assassin's Creed 2 was initially off to a slower-than-expected start (thanks Modern Warfare 2!), but for the December quarter, its sales expectations rose "from [roughly] 5.5 million units to 6.5 million units." Thus, Stern Agee raised its sales forecast from 7.5 million to 8.5 million units by the end of March. Hey, we told you the game was good!
Gamestop: Digital distribution not a threat for another five years
According to Gamestop's Sterne Agee analyst, Arvind Bhatia, retailers have nothing to fear from digital distribution -- not for the next five years, anyhow. Speaking to Industrygamers, Bhatia disclosed that Gamestop management has been conducting thorough studies on the capabilities of digital downloads and its potential adoption for several years now and that the findings are still in favor of brick-and-mortar establishments. Bhatia predicts that a market for downloadable titles won't put serious pressure on retailers until 2014, which he proclaims will be a time when "25% of the population" will have easy access to download technology and when price and storage capacity won't be such a concern. Although Gamestop's study might sound like it's trying to combat digital distribution, Bhatia states it's not about competition but more on adaptation and learning how to profit from the changing distribution channels. We can already see retailers taking a slice, stocking network prepaid cards in stores and offering DLC and full game codes stuffed inside retail boxes. If this is how digital distribution is already affecting retailers, how much moreso in 2014?
WoW generates half of Acti-Blizz earnings
The folks over at CVG picked up an interesting note on our Activision-Blizzard overlords' 2008 fiscals. According to Arvind Bhatia, World of Warcraft probably generated 30 cents out of each 60 cents per share of earnings. Put another way, that's about $400 million for shares at the end of the fiscal year ending this past December. Now, this is kind of the best guess of Mr. Bhatia, who works under the firm Sterne Agee. (And they certainly have a reputation that says we could probably believe them.) But even without Sterne Agee's reputation, a little back-of-the-envelope math shows that his analysis probably bears fruit. We already know that WoW has 11.5 million subscribers. At $15 dollars a pop per month, you're already looking at $172 million each month. But we know that a lot of folks have discount plans, and the charge isn't the same across the globe. I can easily believe a $400 million yearly earning from subscriptions, and am actually surprised it's not higher. Of course, Bhatia has recently lowered some of his other estimates for ATVI, and warns that the consensus estimates predicting $5.2 billion in revenue are probably too high. Nonetheless, at the end of the day, this does say that World of Warcraft is doing just fine. We can feel free to threaten to quit over the latest nerf, the lights're going to stay on while we're out the door.
Analyst: WAR subscriptions will eventually settle around 250,000
Business analyst Arvind Bhatia shared his predictions about Warhammer Online's financial future with Edge magazine yesterday. Bhatia, who works at brokerage firm Stern Agee, said he believes EA is ultimately shooting for around 250,000 - 300,000 subscribers once the launch dust clears, with occassional bumps when major content releases such as expansons occur.Given the hype around the game, those numbers seem a little low, but Bhatia said he based his projections on statements made by EA reps saying that the company hopes to break even on its investment. After the game shipped 1.5 million copies, some initial sales data began to emerge which indicated that sales are meeting but not significantly exceeding EA's conservative expectations. In the end Bhatia expects the company to pull in between $55 and 60 million dollars of revenue from WAR.Numbers like the ones above would clearly not make WAR a WoW-killer, but they would make it one of the elite few truly successful Western, subscription-based MMOs. Certainly this prediction is a far cry from Paul Barnett's wild bet. But of course even Barnett admits his number is a little outrageous, and he only stands to lose $26 if he loses, y'know.
