BrianMarshall
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Content sales expected to bring in 30% of iPad hardware revenue
Sure, Apple will sell about a gajillion iPads when the device finally releases on April 3rd, but analysts are saying that's not all -- apparently 30% of the revenue from the device itself is expected to be from the sale of content read, listened to, watched, or otherwise consumed on the iPad. Brian Marshall with Broadpoint.AmTech calls the touch tablet's media strategy "sticky," and says that the App Store is nothing compared to the kind of market for media that the iPad will create. He says that we might even see 7 million iPads sold in the first year, which is a number that's much higher than other estimates. But Marshall also says that when people actually get their hands on the device, they'll be sold -- there's a lot of "naysaying" going around that will be answered, he believes, with a hands-on test. As I said on the talkcast, I agree -- I think the iPad's real selling point will be how it actually feels and works in your hands, and considering that very, very few people have had that experience so far, it's no wonder there's still so many doubters. I do think that content will be huge on the device, though that's a no-brainer -- even Apple has pointed out that it's basically a device designed to let you sit on your couch and consume media. At the same time, playing with the iPad won't make it magically grow a camera or lower the price, or fix any of the other objections that people have had. Marshall's guessing big numbers, but then again, that's his job. The rest of us will have to wait and see what the usage (not to mention the actual content deal Apple gets) is actually like.
Estimates emerge of Apple's Q1 iPhone, Mac sales
Apple typically reports their 1st quarter financial results in late January, so we'll have to wait a few more weeks for the official word. However, the analysts have begun to share their estimates and the numbers are very impressive. Brian Marshall at Broadpoint.AmTech has estimated that Apple sold 3.3 million Macs during the last quarter, according to MacNN. Here's a little perspective: Apple's all-time sales record for Macs, set during the previous quarter, is 3.05 million. That record was a 17 percent jump from the 2.6 million it sold in the same quarter a year ago. Marshall also suggests that laptop sales could be up as much as 19 percent year-over-year at 865,000 units. Meanwhile, Philip Elmer-DeWitt has begun gathering estimates of iPhone sales and posting them at Brainstorm Tech. They range from 11.30 units sold (Brian Marshall at Broadpoint AmTech) to 8.17 units (Mark Moskowitz, J.P. Morgan). The interesting thing is that the low estimate, 8.17 million iPhones sold, would represent a 10.8% increase from the last September's record of 7.37 million if true. Despite would could have been a rocky year for Apple -- Steve Jobs was out for serious health reasons and a lousy US economy -- they did very well. Are you optimistic for 2010 or waiting for the other shoe to drop?
