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Apple investors 'return to senses' with big rally today
A massive sell-off in Apple shares that's been going on for about eight weeks now appears to have been nipped in the bud with a rally from Friday's close of US$527.68 to a high around $560. While the news out of Washington, DC about possible action on the upcoming "fiscal cliff" appears to be driving a broader market rally today, John Paczkowski at AllThingsD points out the real driver behind the AAPL rally -- Wall Street analysts are pointing out the stock slide as "unmerited". This morning, Topeka Capital Markets' Brian White sent a note to clients stating that "The sell-off in Apple's stock over the past eight weeks has gotten to the point of being 'insanely insane' given the depressed valuation, new blockbuster products for the holiday season, the attractive long-term growth opportunities that lie ahead and the company's ability to distribute significant cash flow to investors." Over the weekend, Paczkowski pointed out that the pre-holiday decline in Apple share price is a "historical pattern ... Apple shares slip late in the year amid profit-taking and some irrationality or other. And then the company reports monster first-quarter earnings in January and they spike."
Apple stock named top pick for 2012
If part of your Christmas gift stash includes a lot of cash, you might want to consider spending it on shares of Apple, Inc. Ticonderoga Securities has named the company's stock the 'top pick' for investors in 2012, mirroring the recommendation made last year by the group. Of the 20 companies covered by Ticonderoga, Apple was the best performer with a growth rate of 26 percent. Ticonderoga analyst Brian White was quoted on AppleInsider as saying "We believe Apple's portfolio in 2012 has the opportunity to crete more excitement around the story with our expectation for the unveiling of iTV, an 'iPad mini' and a major upgrade with the iPhone 5, while we expect the company to finally come to grips with its surging cash balance and issue its first cash dividend." The possibility of a cash dividend to shareholders was roundly dismissed by late Apple CEO Steve Jobs in 2010, as the company has preferred in the past to hold onto cash reserves to take advantage of "strategic opportunities." White isn't the only Wall Street analyst painting a rosy picture for AAPL in 2012. Longtime Apple bull Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray sees growth in almost every Apple product segment with the exception of the iPod. Munster thinks that the next-generation iPhone will have a slightly larger screen and will launch in late summer or early fall. Munster also believes that an Apple television will become a reality this year, and that the company might supplant a new third-generation iPad with a lower-priced entry as well.
iPhone sales estimates creeping up from Wall Street analysts
Yesterday's announcement by AT&T that it's well on the way to selling a record number of smartphones -- many of which are most likely the iPhone 4S -- was encouraging to Wall Street analysts who are now bumping up their estimates of just how many of the phones Apple may sell in the December quarter. According to AllThingsD, two of the most bullish analysts are Brian White from Ticonderoga, who thinks Apple is on track to sell 29.9 million iPhones in the quarter, and BTIG Research's Walter Piecyk, who one-upped White with an estimate of 30 million. Piecyk made his optimistic statement back in August, before the iPhone 4S was even announced, so it will be impressive indeed if his crystal ball proves to be the most accurate. Those 29.9 million iPhone sales predicted by White represent an 84 percent increase over the previous quarter ending September 30, 2011. iPhone sales were down from analyst estimates for that quarter, primarily because many consumers held off on purchasing so that they could get the next big thing from Apple. Shaw Wu from Stern Agee raised his estimate of iPhone sales from 26 million to 28 million, while Maynard Um of UBS went completely bullish and changed his number from 28 million to 30 million. Um thinks sales could be even higher than that, based on unprecedented demand in the Asia Pacific region. None of this, of course, is going to surprise Apple CEO Tim Cook, who stated during the October earnings call that "We're very confident that we will set an all-time record in the December quarter for iPhone sales. We -- in our wildest dreams, we couldn't have gotten off to a start as great as we have on the 4S."
