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The Daily Grind: Bow to the RNG
If you were ever pressed to come up with three letters that defined MMORPGs more than anything else (other than, y'know, "MMO"... or "RPG"), chances are you'd be dithering between "PUG" and "RNG." Man, we gamers like our acronyms, don't we? Just one more step toward that militaristic online state! The RNG -- random number generator -- is that tiny unseen subroutine that basically decides whether you're going to get phat lewts or not, whether you're going to hit a mob or miss, and whether the game will have downtime on the one day that week during which you have free to play. Some people swear fealty to the RNG, bowing to it above all. Some curse its very existence, for it has driven lesser people mad from its fickle nature. So when have you been royally worked over by the random number generator, even though statistically you should have succeeded long before? When did the RNG gods favor you by dropping a major blessing in your lap on the very first try? And what games are you certain have a mean-spirited RNG that try to do everything in its power to drive players insane?
Drop chance probability
Probability is a greatly misunderstood area of math that impacts most areas of WoW gameplay, but none so intensely debated as drop chances. You don't have to be a math expert to want to know how many times you need to kill a boss to have even odds of seeing that drop you're seeking. Unfortunately everyone seems to be saying something different about how probability works. If you hope to get the rare Deathcharger's Reins mount from Baron Rivendare for example, we know that it has a 1% drop chance. That means that every time you kill the Black Baron you have a 1% chance of getting the mount. 1% on the first kill, and 1% on the 100th kill. However, over the course of 100 kills, you have a much higher probability of getting the mount. But not 100%. Never 100%. Join me after the cut where we take a friendly and gentle look at understanding probability, and give you a cool tool to automatically calculate drop probabilities for you!
