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Analyst predicts a Mass Effect MMO could top The Old Republic
Still having geek dreams about a Mass Effect MMO? Your flights of fancy have another advocate today, as an analyst thinks it could be not only feasible but extremely profitable to boot. In a recent investor's note, Janco Partners' Mike Hickey predicted that a hypothetical Mass Effect MMO could make more money for Electronic Arts than Star Wars: The Old Republic will. Hickey made this claim based on the strength of BioWare's science-fiction series and the historical weakness of Star Wars games: "Looking forward, we believe BioWare could develop an MMO based on their highly successful Mass Effect franchise, which should have a considerably better (relative Star Wars MMO) margin profile, given the dilutive nature of the LucasArts royalty." So far, BioWare's been fairly coy on the subject of a possible Mass Effect online game, although it hasn't ruled out the possibility.
Analyst says one million subscribers are attainable for SWTOR
At the Electronic Arts fourth-quarter shareholders conference earlier this year, CEO John Riccitiello stated this about his soon-to-be-released MMORPG Star Wars: The Old Republic: "At half a million subscribers, the game is substantially profitable, but it's not the kind of thing we would write home about. Anything north of a million subscribers, it's a very profitable business." This has been questioned by fans and shareholders alike as all wonder whether the game could actually reach the goal of one million subscribers. According to Janco analyst Mike Hickey, the answer is yes! Gaming business website Gamasutra quoted Hickey as saying that Janco "suspect[s] a willingness from investors to believe [500,000] to 1 million Star Wars MMO subscribers is an attainable target." Hickey has been focused on games and the gaming industry for some time now, specifically on EA, so the rise and fall of EA-published Warhammer Online cannot be off his radar when he makes his predictions about SWTOR. Ultimately, Hickey states that one million subscribers will mean $161.9 million in gross sales and up to $35 million in total profit for EA if his prediction is true. Although there is still no exact release date for Star Wars: The Old Republic, we will know how close to the mark Hickey's prediction is when the game launches later this year.
Could EA's history make investors wary about SWTOR?
According to a report on Gamasutra, investors have been slow to support Electronic Arts in its latest MMORPG endeavor, Star Wars: The Old Republic. The article released today cites Janco Partners analyst Mike Hickey as saying, "We believe many investors are betting against SWTOR achieving market success, provided the company's (Warhammer Online from Mythic) and industry's track record at releasing successful new MMOs." WAR and of course All Points Bulletin being the latest MMOs from EA could make a potential investor a bit gun-shy about placing his money into another game of the same genre. Investors are not just concerned with the initial sales of SWTOR but also the long-term success of the game. The article uses the sales trend of WAR as an example. The first week's sales of WAR topped at 500,000 subscriptions, which is impressive for any MMO, yet subscriptions did not stick as customer satisfaction plummeted. If an investor is not familiar with BioWare's past successes or if he happens to view BioWare as a rookie in the MMO genre, then his wariness is clearly understandable. Today, Mike Hickey is calling Electronic Arts a "buy," but that may change if investors continue to see EA as a risky investment.
Sony: Blu-ray will always be part of PS3
Last month, Janco analyst Mike Hickey predicted a PS3 price drop, driven by a new, cheaper model without a Blu-ray drive. In a statement to Silicon Alley Insider, Sony's Kim Nguyen took on the new hardware rumor, basically killing it for anyone who believes Sony PR: "That would pretty much destroy the PS3's backbone, our games were built on Blu-ray." Nguyen then said the fairly clear, "Quote that: Blu-ray will always be part of PS3." While a cheaper PS3 may be nice, we really don't think Sony would want to harm its movie business by taking the Blu-ray capability out of its best-known Blu-ray player. Sony also denied the price drop in general, as well as an annual fee for an online gaming service. "Online gaming is like a First Amendment right," Sony's Susan Panico said.[Via VG247]
PS3 price cut may be on the way very soon, says analyst
Mike Hickey, an analyst with Janco, says that a major price cut on the Playstation 3 could be on the way in the near, near future (like, in the next few days). Hickey claims that the price slash needs to be at least $100 to get the retail juice moving again, and that, failing that, Sony should expect to see its sales on the console continue to decline. We've heard predictions of a coming price reduction already (sure, they were from Microsoft, but whatever), and this wouldn't be a huge surprise, though we'll just have to wait and see. Hickey also speculates that Sony could hack the Blu-ray out of the PS3 in order to make that price cut doable, but that seems slightly wild to us. Then again, stranger things have happened. [Via Joystiq]
Analyst: PS3 price cut could happen very soon
According to Janco analyst Mike Hickey, Sony could be set to announce a new, lower price point for the PS3 in the next few days. He says Sony needs to slash $100 off the price of the console to "effectively restart unit velocity at retail." He sees this cut taking effect in "April or by June at the latest." Without the cut, he predicts PS3 sales will continue to steadily decline.There's also speculation regarding a potential Blu-ray-less PS3, which would "enable them to make the aforementioned hardware price reduction," though that sounds kind of ridiculous. Without all of that Blu-ray goodness, how are you supposed to play any software on the thing? It's not like people will go running out to buy a cheaper PS3 that will only play PS2, PSOne and PSN games, after all.[Via Yahoo Tech]
Analyst: American PS3 sales to match Xbox 360 in 2008
Janco Partners analyst Mike Hickey envisions a good year for all the consoles, but expects the PS3 to really step up. His estimates are roughly on par with EA's projections for 2008 in North America, with the Xbox 360 and PS3 in a dead heat (of course, the Wii will beat both by a projected three million units). Hickey believes the PS3 will rally in '08 due to a lower price point, better content and Blu-ray's "edge" in the HD movie format war. If Blu-ray ends up being a major factor in consumers' choice to purchase the system, we'll have to watch the tie ratios in order to see whether gamers are actually buying PS3 games.Hickey notes the "slower relative adoption rate" of the PS3 was due to the high price, lack of "distinguishing" content, strong competition from the Wii and "value confusion" over the Blu-ray player -- basically, the opposite of everything he thinks will make the PS3 a contender in '08. As for Hickey's crystal ball predictions, he says the PS2 will finally hit $99 in '08 and that the Wii will follow PS2 growth, selling eight million units in North America during '08 ... if supplies keep up.
Analyst says Take-Two on right path
Janco Partners analyst Mike Hickey thinks that Take-Two is ready to show investors the money. Hickey says that Take-Two's management turnaround is working well and that higher than expected sales of BioShock and the release of Manhunt 2 will be good for their fourth quarter. Things should only improve next year with GTA IV and Mafia 2.Then Hickey brings on the crystal ball part. Hickey says that he thinks Take-Two will bring BioShock to PS3, PS2, Wii and handhelds in the company's 2009 fiscal year. Although the PS2, Wii and handheld versions will clearly not be up to the standards of the BioShock we know, the PS3 version would be nice. The whole idea seems unlikely given current information, but if it's all happening a year or two from now it seems plausible. BioShock could always do the exclusivity on a platform for a bit and then transfer over, Take-Two got very good at doing that with Grand Theft Auto back in the day. The real question is if BioShock II ends up being exclusive? There's much money to be made by the return to Rapture.
