Michael-Pachter
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PSN devs offer mixed reactions to cost of outage
As consumers scramble to deal with the ramifications (identity theft!) of the PlayStation Network breach and subsequent outage, PSN developers are struggling with anxieties of their own. "PSN being out definitely affects our bottom line," Q-Games Dylan Cuthbert told IndustryGamers, "but as long as the people who were going to be playing Shooter 2 and other PixelJunk titles will get right back in there playing them when it comes back up, we'll be happy and hopefully income won't be dented too much." That could prove to be a big "but" -- Cuthbert's comments came before we knew PSN users' personal information had been stolen and consumer trust in Sony perhaps irrevocably damaged. Speaking to Develop, a UK-based developer, wishing to remain anonymous, observed that "people will be a bit more wary about using their credit card on PSN, so obviously we're nervous about sales." "There may be a lot of people who won't want to spend their money through PlayStation Network now," the same developer added. "We're expecting a 5–10 percent drop in business." The dev estimated that the studio has already lost "thousands" in expected revenue.
Analysts consider dance genre 'bubble,' Ubisoft says more 'The Experience' games possible
Ubisoft's Just Dance and its successful clones like Michael Jackson: The Experience, along with Harmonix's Dance Central, have established the dance genre as a viable market for milking. Now the industry must play the delicate game of sucking the marrow dry without creating a zombie. Gamasutra hit up go-to industry analysts Michael Pachter and Jesse Divnich for their takes on the sustainability of the genre. Both analysts essentially characterized dance games as part of a bubble that is largely unaffected by critical reception (UK hit Zumba Fitness has a 43 on Metacritic). "In short, yes, the dance category is a bubble," said Divnich, "much like most things in entertainment." That doesn't mean that the bubble is about to burst -- or that the bottle of suds is close to empty. At least, Ubisoft is planning to keep on dipping in. The publisher's Tony Key teased that Michael Jackson: The Experience is "just the first 'The Experience' brand." He added that there's no reason why "another artist can't make a great dance game under 'The Experience brand,'" but didn't pitch any bright ideas. The Smurfs, anyone?
Pachter: West, Zampella have no chance of getting Modern Warfare rights
In addition to being the official economic soothsayer of the gaming industry, Michael Pachter knows a thing or two about legal affairs. Actually, he has a pair of law degrees, so odds are good that he knows more than two things. Regardless, he recently sounded off to IndustryGamers about former Infinity Ward heads Jason West and Vince Zampella's chances of gaining ownership of the Modern Warfare brand form Activision through legal action. His opinion? They've got "no prayer." Pachter suggested that any claim the two may have had on the brand was lost when their employment was terminated, saying, "They have never claimed that they 'own' the brand; instead, they claim that they were granted creative control over the brand under their employment agreement." Pachter added that a theoretical solution for West and Zampella would be to seek reemployment (yeah right) under a wrongful termination claim, though he noted, "That is simply not what West and Zampella are seeking here."
Pachter expects 360 price cut at E3, PS3 and Wii to follow suit
Gaming industry analyst Michael Pachter has updated his predictions about the console price cuts he anticipates will occur this year. A Wedbush Securities update distributed this morning said, "We expect Microsoft to announce a price cut at this year's E3 Expo in June, and expect Sony and Nintendo to rapidly follow suit." Until then, Pachter expects that consoles sales will steadily decline, with the 3DS providing enough juice to bring things back into the positives in April. The report predicts that Microsoft will likely capitalize on the success of Kinect by dropping the price of its core Xbox 360 bundle to "under $300," adding "we are confident that by holiday 2011, all three consoles will be at least $50 cheaper than they are today." Why, with that kind of money, we could almost buy a new fuel cell for our spaceyacht's hyperdrive! Oh, right -- the report also predicts the invention of spaceyachts. We meant to mention that earlier.
Pachter: Xbox 360 outsold PS3 two-to-one in December; Nintendo reveals numbers
Wedbush Securities games industry analyst Michael Pachter's magic crystal ball predicts another month of Xbox 360 dominance in the NPD charts. His latest report to IndustryGamers says to expect sales of Microsoft's console to be more than double that of its biggest competitor, the PS3, for December. Prognosticating that the Xbox 360 sold 2.5 million units last month, he's betting on a 91 percent boost in sales over November for Microsoft. As for the PS3, Pachter figures it sold 1.2 million units in December, a 12 percent dip compared to its performance in November. As for actual real numbers, Nintendo boss Satoru Iwata revealed in an interview with Nikkei (via Andriasang) that the Wii sold over two million units in December. The DS reportedly performed on par with the same period in 2009, which would be somewhere around three million units.
World of Warcraft will reign for another 20 years according to industry analysts
With all of the recent focus on World of Warcraft following its latest expansion, it's no surprise that the industry leader is at the center of another round of "What will topple WoW?" discussions. In an article on Eurogamer, industry analysts and developers lend their thoughts as to what made World of Warcraft so dang popular to begin with, and what it will take -- if anything -- for another game to beat its popularity, subscription numbers and cultural footprint. Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter declared that nothing will top the title for at least 20 years due to an insurmountable lead, although this became debated by the other participants. Cryptic's Jack Emmert thinks WoW will be "chipped away at" instead of toppled. Age of Conan's Craig Morrison thinks that nobody can consciously plan to overcome WoW's lead saying, "You don't topple a cultural phenomenon. But you can join one." GamersFirst's Bjorn Book-Larsson doesn't think there's a need for WoW to be toppled due to the size of the market. Codemasters' Dave Solari imagines that the winning formula "would have mass market appeal, with instant accessibility, would work on all platforms, particularly mobile, be incredibly viral and social -- like a feature-rich FarmVille." Undead Labs' Jeff Strain thinks that MMO studios should be looking at it a different way: "They should instead be striving to achieve the same level of success with their own game ideas." Some even speculate that Blizzard is the only studio capable of besting its own game, perhaps with its second MMO that's due to be announced in 2012. Head on over to Eurogamer for the full discussion.
Ubisoft stock experiences 'biggest drop' in over a decade
Yesterday's quarterly review did not win over many investors. Ubisoft's share prices fell 22 percent, which Bloomberg calls the company's biggest drop "since at least 1996." Apparently, people did not respond positively to the company losing millions of dollars. In fact, a number of analysts have downgraded the stock, such as Deutsche Bank's move from "buy" to "hold." The tumultuous fall of Ubisoft's stock price may provide some opportunity for other investors, though. Michael Pachter offered a more favorable analysis of the company's upcoming portfolio, telling Gamasutra that "Ubisoft has the potential to deliver much higher revenue and EPS going forward as it focuses on AAA-quality franchise games with a history of success (emphasis ours)." For better and for worse, that means Ubisoft needs to focus more on games like Assassin's Creed, and less on games like Beyond Good & Evil if it plans to woo investors back.
New Transformers, Spider-Man and more next year, Activision doing 'large-scale' Call of Duty
Activision's recent conference call wasn't all facts and figures, you know. The company also outlined the future of some of its biggest franchises over the course of the next calendar year. According to CEO Eric Hirshberg, the publisher will launch titles from "proven franchises including the Hero brand, Spider-Man, X-Men and Transformers, which will be supported by what is expected to be another major blockbuster movie from Michael Bay." Sounds like they're kinda putting the cart in front of the giant, shapeshifting robot-car with that one. Hirshberg also made the unsurprising announcement that 2011 would also see the release of a new Call of Duty, explaining "in the back half of 2011, we are launching a new, large-scale Call of Duty FPS title." Considering the last installment in the franchise had like, ten different scenes where nukes went off, we don't know how much "larger" the proceedings could become. Unless, of course, Hirshberg was referring to Activision's oft-rumored plans to monetize the series' multiplayer component. Wedbush Morgan Securities analyst Michael Pachter, who previously predicted Activision would subscriptionalize the franchise this year, released a statement shortly after the conference call, stating, "We expect Activision to announce plans to monetize multiplayer online some time in 2011, and expect greater visibility into the release schedule throughout the year."
Pachter: 254K Wiis sold in September, 312K PS3s
With the NPD deeming the unwashed masses unfit to receive hardware sales data, we've been forced to procure the company's data through other means. Microsoft executive Aaron Greenberg made it easy yesterday, announcing the Xbox 360 sold 483,989 units in September, which is up 37 percent from the same time last year. Meanwhile, the other console makers were to be a bit shy -- and now we know why. Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter revealed in his investor note today, sourcing NPD's data, that the Wii and PS3 sold 254K and 312K units, respectively. That's a 45 percent drop from the same time last year for Nintendo and a 37 percent hit for Sony. Pachter notes it's hard to ding the PS3 in a sales comparisons to last year, as it was flying high after receiving a major boost from that $100 price drop. However, for the Wii, he says the console continues to struggle due to "gamer fatigue" and "lack of high-profile releases."
Pachter predicts $50 price cuts in 2011, Xbox first to drop
Gaming analyst Michael Pachter expects good things from the industry in 2011, but not without a little sacrifice from the Big Three. Pach Attack prognosticated to Industry Gamers that "a $50 console price cut across the board will impact software sales by a positive 5 percent." (He expects to see an additional market boost from sales of 3DS, as well as Move and Kinect products.) Pachter further predicted the Xbox 360 to be the first to fall in price at some point during the spring of next year. When questioned, competing analysts The Joystiq Consortium had a far more monolithic picture of 2011 to paint, saying, "It's basically just going to be Minecraft." Time will tell, we suppose.
Pachter: NBA Elite 11 delay to cost EA 1.1 million sales this year; NBA Jam no savior
In a recent investor communique, Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter noted his belief that Electronic Arts would lose 1.1 million sales due to NBA Elite 11's delay and reduced the company's holiday quarter earnings estimate by $60 million. Also, because the sports sim will miss the beginning of basketball season with its 2011 release, he predicts that by the end of the company's fiscal year next March, Elite 11 will have only sold around 500,000 units -- if it doesn't succumb to the "possibility of being canceled." Pachter's note briefly mentions the standalone versions of NBA Jam as "not a true substitute," so we followed up with the analyst extraordinaire to find out why he believes EA's other NBA game can't make up the difference. "The standalone versions on PS3 and 360 might sell well, but I question whether they will be priced as $60 games, when the company had previously said it was giving them away with NBA Elite." He continued, "More likely, they'll be discounted to $50 or lower, and gamers will still balk at the price, given that it was going to be bundled with NBA Elite -- and likely will be, if the latter game ever comes out. So I'd say another 200,000 units, maybe." As for the Wii version, he explained that the game was coming out anyway for the console, so the lack of NBA Elite may give it a "very small" bump of 100,000 units.
Analysts sound off on 3DS price and release date announcement
Over the past 24 hours, select members of the gaming industry peanut gallery have sounded off on Nintendo's recently announced launch plans for the 3DS. Many in the investment community balked at the high price and later-than-expected launch window, including Lazard Capital Markets' Colin Sebastian, who worries "shipment quantities to the U.S. next spring might be more constrained than originally anticipated." MF Global FXA Securities' Jay Defibaugh explained that those two qualms, combined with the devices apparent lack of 3G support, made the announcement a "worst-case scenario." Though many analysts appear to share these concerns, EEDAR, which expects the handheld to come to the US in March 2011 at $249 to $299, disagrees. "The higher price point allows Nintendo to incorporate new features such as 3D movies, camera, and game support," EEDAR noted in a report received by Joystiq yesterday, later adding, "a 2010 Holiday launch would severely impact both the quantity and quality of titles that could be made available by November 2010." Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter predicts that the market will bear the relatively high price of the handheld, though he expects the cost to drop to $250 when it arrives in the U.S.. For more of Pachter's predictions for Nintendo's western 3DS launch plans, check out our interview with the outspoken analyst.
Pachter: 3DS will cost $250 in the U.S., likely won't come stateside before April
Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter recently shared with us his insight on yesterday's pricing and release date announcement for the Nintendo 3DS. He predicts that the 25,000 yen ($299) price point for the Japanese launch of the handheld will depreciate somewhat as it travels to Western markets, arriving in the U.S. for $250, Europe for €250 and the U.K. for £200. And although Nintendo of America CEO Reggie Fils-Aime stated the 3DS would "launch in all of our major markets by March 31, 2011," Pachter foresees an even later arrival in the West. "Looking at how Nintendo does things," Pachter said, "if you're launching February 26 in Japan, and their earnings reports say before the end of the fiscal year in U.S. and Europe -- is there any prayer, even a 1 percent chance that they'll launch a week later in the U.S., March 5? No freaking way. It's not even remotely possible they're launching first half of March. I'm betting it gets delayed until April in Europe and U.S.." Some analysts have balked at the fairly high Japanese launch price of the 3DS. Though Pachter admits the launch price is "higher than what's customary" for the handheld market, he said the market will bear the toll -- a lesson hard learned by Nintendo when it launched its latest home console. "They screwed up on the Wii. It was sold out for two full years! You just couldn't get one," Pachter said. "What was the point? They should have sold it for $300 at launch, and made another $50 for every Wii sold during that period. It sold so competitively in the first few weeks that it was going for $1,000 on eBay -- and they absolutely don't want to see the 3DS on eBay." %Gallery-103582%
Xbox UK boss: Halo Reach will outsell Call of Duty: Black Ops
As the UK-based director of Xbox and Entertainment at Microsoft, it's Stephen McGill's job to boast about upcoming games, even ones that seem to have the whole "hype" thing in the bag. "We have huge expectations," McGill said of Halo: Reach, speaking to Eurogamer at a launch event. What are Halo's chances, a platform-exclusive game, at besting a franchise that's only increased in popularity (and earnings) with each iteration?
Pachter predicts $100 'Platinum' Xbox Live membership
The bump in cost for a Gold membership on Xbox Live is just the tip of the iceberg, according to game industry seer Michael Pachter. Predicting a $100 plan as the next evolutionary step in subscription options soon to be available to Xbox Live consumers, he told IndustryGamers reports that while the initial extra $10 "translates to around $100 to 150 million per year in additional revenue for Microsoft," the company will "reinvest at least this much in developing other new applications, and will roll out a premium service with $100 to 200 million worth of enhancements. If they can get 2 million users to switch from the $60 plan to the $100 plan, they'll make an extra $80 million a year, and can keep investing to try to grow that business." It makes sense: Xbox Live is easily one of the biggest draws of the console and consumers have already shown they're willing to pay a premium for it. But even if Microsoft were to offer a "Platinum" service, what could justify what is comparably such a heftier price tag? "For all I know, the Platinum plan might include virtual goods credits for various Microsoft games," Pachter posits. "If members could get specialized Halo armor or weapons worth the extra $40, they might be more willing to sign up, and it doesn't really cost Microsoft anything to offer things like that." You know what? We may know a few people willing to pay for something like that. [Thanks, Mark]
Mafia 2 unlikely to be profitable, Pachter says
According to Michael Pachter, Mafia 2 sales appear unlikely to recoup the cost of the game's six-year development period. The Wedbush analyst told Gamasutra that "consumer interest appears to be waning" for 2K Games' crime drama. Mafia 2 currently holds the #43 position on Amazon's Video Game Bestsellers list, one week after release. In comparison, Rockstar's Red Dead Redemption faced regular shortages when it was first released and sold five million units in just three weeks' time. Take-Two will update its investors with the company's latest financial results later this week. In addition to confirming sales figures, Pachter expects "the company to announce a shift in release dates for LA Noire out of 2010 and into 2011." Now ... wouldn't that be surprising?
Analysts predict StarCraft 2 sales in 2010 to be out of this world
Video game industry analysts' ears perked up yesterday following the release of Blizzard's super anticipated RTS, StarCraft 2 -- sensing a need for the skills of their vocation, these analysts began firing off their predictions for how the game would sell through the end of the year. According to Gamespot, Signal Hill's Tom Greenwald suggests that "5-6 million units this year are highly achievable," while Lazard Capital Markets' Colin Sebastian predicts the game to sell 4.5 million units through September and 6.5 million units by the end of 2010. Speaking to USA Today, Morgan Wedbush guru Michael Pachter gave his prediction: five million copies within the next two to three months. Using our own comprehension of the gaming industry, as well as a few tricks we've picked up from The Price is Right, we've got our own predictions: Five million and one by October, six-and-a-half million and one by the end of the year. Oh, yeah. That spot on the Showcase Showdown is ours for sure.
Discounted original Xbox 360s outsold new 'S' model in June
Microsoft enjoyed a "significant sales spike" for Xbox 360 hardware in June, but according to Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter, discounts on the original version of the Xbox 360 may have had more to do with driving consumer excitement than the new model. 40 percent of Xboxes sold in the US last month were new "Short" systems, Pachter told investors in a report (summarized by GamesIndustry.biz), with $150 Arcade systems accounting for another 35 percent. That leaves various bundles, also discounted by $50, as the other 25 percent of the month's sales. "It is clear that the sales spike for the 360 was largely temporary, as clearance items accounted for around 60 per cent of total sales," Pachter concluded, "and it is not clear that software attached heavily to these purchase." Those discounted Xboxes would account for an even higher percentage by volume!%Gallery-95601%
Roundup: Analyst commentary on Kinect pricing
Everybody has an opinion at the moment about Kinect's $150 price tag, but let's hear what the analysts who get paid for their opinions think. We've got reactions from EEDAR's Jesse Divnich, Lazard's Colin Sebastian and Wedbush Morgan's Michael Pachter, after the break.
Pachter: Online multiplayer games to blame for game sales decline
Last month's NPD figures were rather disappointing, reflecting a 15 percent decline in year-over-year sales. With the exception of Red Dead Redemption and Super Mario Galaxy 2, it appears gamers simply aren't buying as many games as they used to ... and, predictably, Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter has a theory. The problem? Online games. According to Pachter, "the overall decline was due to a very large number of people playing multiplayer online games." With an estimated 12 million players spending 10 hours a week rampaging through Activision's shooter, Pachter argues that online games like Modern Warfare 2, Halo 3 and Bad Company 2 have "sucked the available time away from what otherwise would be spent playing newly purchased games." While there are many other factors to consider -- the still-sluggish economy, the declining sales of key Wii software (a la Wii Play) -- Pachter's point does seem to have some merit. Unfortunately, his publisher-centric solution is unlikely to win him many fans among gamers. The "monetization of multiplayer," as he describes it, would have publishers figuring out some method to charge gamers to play online. It's a risky proposition that could bear some terrible consequences, but the current model is, as Pachter puts it, "devastating for publishers and shareholders, who are seeing sales and profits decline."
