MichaelPachter
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Pachter: Apple will have a game console soon
Michael Pachter is probably the most visible gaming industry analyst out there -- while he's not always right about his predictions and insight on the video game industry, he does usually know what he's talking about, and he's definitely got the ear of a lot of investors. And so when he says that Apple is planning to turn the Apple TV into a game console, people listen. In fact, that's exactly what he said on his online show last week -- he says that "by accident," Apple has "become a serious gaming company." Steve Jobs never really was interested in gaming, and yet, because the iPod touch has really jumped into gaming with the App Store (and the iPad will follow), Apple will go for games more and more as a way to sell their hardware. He also says the Apple TV will get hooked up to the App Store sooner or later, and that it probably won't be sold as a straight game console, but will eventually succeed as a "multi-use, multi-purpose device" that plays games. Hardly an original idea, of course, but the rub here is that while lots of people have suggested Apple make a jump like this, the company itself hasn't been interested in doing so. Despite the App Store's success, Jobs still doesn't seem interested in games (the iPad is getting new iWork apps on day one, but all it gets officially for games is upscaling), and Apple has echoed the original idea of the TV as a "hobby." Hooking up the Apple TV to the App Store would be an interesting move, but I'm not convinced it's one Apple wants to make quite yet. Pachter says it'll happen as soon as 2012 -- we'll see.
Pachter: American Wii Fit shortages due to weak dollar
Americans have been buffeted with news of our nation's pending recession and the devaluation of our dollar for months now, but in a market with such standardized prices, the American video game industry and game consumers haven't really felt the effect of our economic instability. However, according to industry analyst and prognosticator extraordinaire Michael Pachter, our pecuniary puniness is the cause for the current American Wii Fit shortage -- nearly four times as many copies of the title made their way to Europe, where the Euro, unlike the dollar, is gaining strength.In Pachter's own words, "We're seeing companies ignore their largest market simply because they can make a greater profit elsewhere." You don't need to be a revered industry analyst to notice that -- the title, which sells for $90 in the U.S., is speedily selling for the equivalent of $140 in Europe. Pachter also remarks that Americans can afford to wait for future shipments of the title, as Nintendo knows "that Americans will be just as fat a few months from now." Words hurt, Pachter. Words hurt.
Pachter expects 2008 to be 'significantly better' for Midway
In the wake of yesterday's Q1 earnings announcement from Midway, financial prognosticator Michael Pachter has come forth with his predictions for the company, stating that despite suffering considerable losses during the quarter, the analyst expects the company to perform "significantly better" over the course of year compared to 2007.According to Pachter, his firm, Wedbush Morgan, continues to advise investors to hold onto any shares of Midway stock that they may have collecting dust in their portfolios, adding belief that Midway "can generate sustainable profits if it can deliver revenues above the $300 million annual level." While possible, Pachter himself lowered his 2008 revenue estimates for the company to $265 million from $300 million based on what he called Midway's "weak first half results," as well as lowered his expectations for 2009. The analyst noted belief that Midway hit rock bottom "quite a while ago," and thus it seems like there is nowhere to go but up. We're just not sure that you can get to the top by clinging to Batman's cape.[Via press release]
Pachter says Xbox 360 will beat Wii in September
When the Wii started its march to dominance and began trouncing the 360, it was kind of sweet. It was like a come-from-behind underdog story where the camp for fat kids managed to beat the camp for rich athletic kids in the big softball game simply by working hard and believing in themselves. But now, it's almost become a little sad. The rich kids all lost their scholarships and waistlines and started working at Citgo, while the fat kids grew progressively fatter thanks to crap like Carnival Games and teasing the masses with incredible-looking titles that they will, sadly, not play in their lifetimes.But according to Michael Pachter, the formerly rich and athletic kids may have won a round last month against their portly nemeses. The video game analyst believes that the 360 will have beaten the Wii 450,000 to 425,000 when sales numbers for September have been added up. It's sure to be a nice boost for the dethroned pretty boys, but since last month also marked the release of Halo 3, they perhaps shouldn't get too comfortable at the top.
Analyst predicts $399 PS3 in 2008
It's time once again to look into the future. That's right, Michael Pachter of Wedbush Morgan Securities, all the way to the year 2008! And what does he see? He says that we should "expect a price cut no later than April, likely to $399 for the 80Gb model" of the PS3.This would be a $100 price drop on top of the already slashed $499 price he predicted for the holiday season. Pachter believes that Sony's recent IPO announcement, will enable Sony to drop prices even further for early next year. And hopefully, just in time for Metal Gear Solid 4.[via Joystiq]
How are analysts handling Karraker's departure?
They're worried, honestly. Though some may say PR people are a dime a dozen in any industry, Karraker had a lot of history at Sony and his recent departure from the team is going to make it a difficult holiday for Sony, says analyst Michael Pachter. Karraker always made himself available for questions and comments, putting himself forward especially after the shaky PS3 launch and subsequent waves of negative press. Can someone fresh really fill the shoes of that man?Michael Pachter isn't completely sure. "The other PR people at Sony are quite competent, but it would help to strengthen the team with someone as good as Dave to handle the schizophrenic press over the next 6 months." Just because we always refer to ourselves as "we" doesn't make us schizophrenic! Although we don't consider ourselves press, either. As to further boost Sony's fears, Pachter also claimed that the few PS3 exclusives and pricing disadvantage relative to other consoles will make this one difficult holiday for Sony. Things will shape up in Spring, he said, "with the release of Grand Theft Auto 4, Gran Turismo 5, and Metal Gear Solid 4." We bet so, too!
Analysts expect $499 price for 80GB PS3 over holidays
We can't say we didn't expect it, let alone haven't heard it before and probably had some report on it a while back. Once again, those number-crunching-guessing analysts are setting up consumers for one of two things: an expected result or disappointment. There are no pleasant surprises anymore, huh? Anyway, Wedbush Morgan's own Michael Pachter and simExchange's Jesse Divnich came out of the forest to proclaim the 60GB model PS3 will vanish by the holidays and the 80GB model will fully replace it -- price and all. Yep, they sense Sony will lower the 80GB model to $499 and keep it there.Other sales boosts, the two say, could come in the form of more software bundles and Jesse Divnich is "confident that through the coming months, Sony will make the correct decisions to prevent the gap between the PS3 and the Xbox 360 to widen." Pachter chimes in also with the idea that in early 2008, Sony may be prepared to cut the price of their console again. We don't think we'll see another $100 price drop, but if one does happen, we bet it'd be about $50. That's our analysis, what's yours?
Pachter says PS3 outsold Xbox 360 in July
As a master of the occult, Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter has access to an astonishing amount of prescient items. He typically rotates them, most recently speaking to the mirror which he got at an estate sale from a Queen who apparently took a nasty fall. Pachter went up to the mirror and asked, "Mirror, mirror, on the wall. In July, who's the console winner of them all?"The Mirror replied, "Why the Nintendo Wii and DS, of course."Miffed at the information given by his impulse purchase, Pachter replies, "You better tell me something I don't already know or I'm shipping you by freight to Pidgeon!"In a moment of sheer panic the Mirror blurts out, "NPD will report the PS3 beat the Xbox 360 in sales for July."Pachter believes that for the month of July, which will be official from NPD on Aug. 23, that the DS (450,000 units) and Wii (330,000) dominated sales in North America. Although, for the first time ever, the PS3 will show sales of 160,000 units, while the Xbox 360 will have 115,000. This would also mean that the PS3 will have doubled sales since announcing their 60GB clearance sale last month. He goes on to say that the Xbox warranty issue was a speed bump for Microsoft as "as consumers struggled with the meaning of the 'three red rings of death' issue." He believes that the price cut and apparent fix of the design flaw will rebound Xbox 360 sales.
Second PS3 price drop in time for GTA IV - Pachter
Everybody's favorite analyst, Michael Pachter, has weighed in once again on his favorite topic -- PlayStation 3 price drops. According to Pachter, it is unlikely that Sony will drop the price of the PS3 again this year even though higher-than-previous console costs will constrain new console growth by approximately 10% compared to last cycle. He does feel that Sony will look at dropping the price early next year though, just in time to spur sales of the console for major hitters like Metal Gear Solid 4 and GTA IV. The PlayStation 3 wasn't the only console that got love though, Pachter also said that he thinks it's likely that Sony will drop the price of the PlayStation 2 before this holiday season in order to further propel sells of the Energizer of videogame consoles. The PS3's diminutive daddy continues to sell at a fantastic rate and a price cut down to $99 would help maintain or even increase the sales rate of the 'last-gen' console. Continued strong sales of the PlayStation 2 would also help prop up Sony's game devision while the PS3 continues it's slow ramp-up towards profitability.
All about industry analysts on Bonus Round
Everyone's favorite Wedbush-Morgan analyst, Michael Pachter, joins IDC's Billy Pidgeon for this weeks episode of Bonus Round, focusing on video game analysts. Throughout their interview with Geoff Keighley, one thing is made abundantly clear: they're not doing their job for us, the players, but for the serious investors out there. That said, the question that seems to pop up every time their comments filter their way through the media is, "Why should we listen to them in the first place?"Michael Pachter says, "Nobody should listen to me on my opinion about anything." That would be a legendary quote right there, but Pachter continues, "... Except whether one of the companies I cover is going to meet or miss an earnings estimate and how they're going to perform going forward." Curses. You win this round, Pachter! Insightful as well as educational, it's another episode of Bonus Round worth checking out.
Pachter expects $499 price to remain, even when 60GB PS3s do not
Will they? Won't they? This is worse than Ross and Rachel. Ah, the 90s. Simpler times. Since Thursday, we've been questioning whether the 80GB PS3 will drop to $499 once the 60GB version sells out. We're fairly comfortable with our prediction that it will and Michael Pachter, of Wedbush Morgan, agrees. Pachter states that "the Sony entry level price of $499 is here to stay" and that "there are presently 2 – 3 million 60Gb PS3s produced and not yet sold." This number constitutes up 75% of PS3s in the hands of consumers right now, so the idea of that many selling out before the end of the month, as Reeves suggested, is ridiculous. Pachter's reasoning for why he expects the 80GB model to drop in price is similar to most people's. The 80GB PS3 should cost Sony as much, if not less, to produce than the 60GB model thanks to removal of the Emotion Engine (which, at this point, is the PS3's equivalent of the appendix). Not to mention that Motorstorm is included in the 80GB box, so removing the game will allow the bundle to drop in price by at least $50. Pachter ends his report by saying that he expects "the $499 price point to be maintained until early next year, when the 80Gb model will likely be cut again to $399." We're not so sure about this ourselves, but we'd definitely like to see it happen.
Pachter pauses to percolate E3 thoughts, says $499 PS3 is here to stay
Wedbush-Morgan's Michael Pachter has been around the industry long enough to know that the first thing you do as an analyst the Monday after E3 is a brain dump. Bright and early this morning we received his report entitled "E3 2007 Review: The Good, The Bad, and the Ugly" in which Mr. Pachter fills you in on the stocks to buy, hold on to, and sell in the relative future (Cliffs Notes version found after the break).Pachter says the theme of this E3 was "non-traditional" game software. Music games, games targeting or including female gamers and titles focused on the casual market. He also says that unlike prior E3s, access to new product offerings was relatively unrestricted -- well yeah, because everyone was there for business and barely had time to see the hangar. The key companies Pachter says to invest in are Activision, EA, THQ and Ubisoft. He also says the the big news of E3 was the Sony "price cut" and that he expects Microsoft to follow by the end of the year. But what about that 60GB not being manufactured news? Pachter thinks the $499 PS3 is here to stay and, when those 60GB units are depleted, the 80GB model will take its place.
Pachter: Hey Activision, watch out for Rock Band
Unfortunately, we can't attribute Michael Pachter's warning to Activision as a direct quote, as analysts are forbidden from saying "Hey" and are forced to substitute the informal greeting with "pardon me" or "pay attention to me, please." In commenting on Activision's glowing fiscal report and strong NPD presence to GameDaily BIZ, Pachter draws attention to several challenges Activision faces in the coming months. "All things are not perfect in Activision's world," he says.Pachter predicts that the glaring imperfections (to put it mildly) highlighted by reviewers in the Spider-Man 3 games will curtail sales, and that Call of Duty 4's proposed Iraq setting may prove to leave an equally bad taste in the consumer's mouth. More interestingly, the analyst notes that if Harmonix's EA-published Rock Band is fully playable with just a guitar controller, it will "compete quite favorably with Activision's [Guitar Hero]." He suspects the instrument protagonist genre will remain kind to RedOctane's owner, but adds that "new entrants will impact future growth of the band." Or did he mean brand? Once the dust settles in the battle of the fake bands, will Pachter still stand by his belief that Activision was right to buy RedOctane over Harmonix?
Pachter estimates only 100k PS3's sold in April ... ouch
Wedbush Morgan analyst David Pachter just can't seem to stay out of the spotlight -- he's already been quoted on here today claiming a price cut for the PS3 is due this summer. Now he's estimating console sales for April and it seems like he's decided that April was the worst month for the PS3 so far. Citing a mere 100,000 consoles sold for the US (these are NPD numbers, so it's just the US), this is about 30,000 fewer units than the previous month and way lower than the competition. He estimated 300,000 Wii's sold, 175,000 360's, the usual dominance of the DS and the PS2 selling better than both the PS3 and 360.Software sales are up 24%, he estimates. Chances are this is no thanks to the PS3 since it released zero exclusive titles. He says that upcoming multiplatform games (like those based on movies) will sell the best on the PS2. This is probably due to userbase, plus cost of games for the PS2 seems to have dropped to a $39.99 price point (at least, around Georgia it seems that way). Sales of the PS2 may taper off once people replace the system for a next-gen one (but want to keep their current library), but that's only if the PS3 can show its muscle. In the coming months, that seems very likely.[via GameDaily]
Analyst predicts price cut for the PS3 this summer
var digg_url = 'http://www.digg.com/playstation_3/Analyst_predicts_price_cut_for_the_PS3_this_summer'; Videogame analyst superstar Michael Pachter expects there to be a price cut for the PlayStation 3 by the end of the year, and says that it might even come as early as this summer. GI.biz quotes Pachter, "It is possible that Sony's cost of production for the PS3 has declined to the point that the company may consider a hardware price cut some time this summer, and we may see a price cut for the PS2 before the holidays."As long as Sony's manufacturing costs have dropped to a reasonable rate, I'd heartily encourage Sony to drop the price of the PS3 as soon as possible. It's very clear that people desperately WANT a PS3, but just can't afford it. Dropping it to $500US and then marketing the hell out of the price drop would do wonders for their sales. Just look at what a 30 dollar price drop did for the PSP.
Analyst: Blu-ray, and therefore PS3, will win
Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter has drawn a parallel between the success of a high-definition format and its related game console, believing that Sony will gain an "insurmountable advantage" over Microsoft if movie studios embrace Blu-ray, and vice-versa for Microsoft to "maintain its first mover advantage.""Notwithstanding the efforts of the three console manufacturers to deliver compelling exclusive content, we expect the ultimate outcome of the console wars to be decided by the motion picture studios," he said.Pachter ultimately predicts a close, three-way tie in the market share for this generation of consoles: Sony at 36%, Nintendo at 34% and Microsoft at 30%. In Japan, he said, Ninendo will have a 51% share through 2011 (is Pachter also a time traveler?), Sony with 44% and Microsoft presumably with the remaining 5%.Remember, for every conclusion you may draw from Pachter's report, there are hundreds, if not thousands, of other analysts with contradictory conclusions. Should either high-definition format come out on top, it still has to contend with its big brother, DVD, for some time now, and therefore its impact on the console wars is minimal at best compared to the system's relative price and software.[Via PS3 Fanboy]
Pachter: PlayStation 3 will win next-gen war because of Blu-Ray
The most recent Wedbush Morgan report has been released and in it, Michael Pachter states that he believes that Blu-Ray may actually be the deciding factor in the console wars. At the end of the PS3/Wii/360 generation, he expects Sony to 'win' with a 36% market share, largely due to the strong movie industry support of Blu-Ray.Interestingly though, he also states that this console cycle will essentially be "a dead heat, and each manufacturer will have sufficient market share to generate significant profits." This is great news for videogame fans everywhere, since an evenly divided market will mean that each of the consoles will have a chance to grow and mature as they age. This may be PS3 Fanboy, but I really don't want any of the current consoles to pull a Dreamcast.
Sony will never catch up, but that doesn't matter
Chris Kohler's Game | Life blog has a great Q&A session with Wedbush Morgan's Michael Pachter. When the analyst was asked about the widening gap between DS and PSP, he had this to say: "I don't think Sony will close the gap, and don't think it is important that they do so. Nintendo has over 20 million loyal GBA owners, and we should expect them to dominate the category that they invented. Sony is late to the handheld game, has tried to approach the market from an older demographic, and is just now trying to beef up more kid-friendly content to appeal to 13-17 year olds. I don't think that the gap matters at all, so long as Sony makes money. I also believe that price elasticity of demand dictates that the lower priced product will sell more units. That's why there are more Fords than Maseratis."While Sony will most likely never be number one this generation, they've gone a long way in changing the handheld marketplace. As long as people continue to buy the system and continue to buy the games, the platform will remain more than viable.[Via AMN]
Take Two shareholders oust CEO
Did you catch the Take Two shareholders meeting yesterday? Don't worry if you missed it, the event turned out to be much less dramatic than we had hoped. However, it was not without some ruffled feathers, as now-former CEO Paul Eibeler was shown the door. Taking his place is Ben Feder, a former executive at News Corp, as acting CEO. Michael Pachter of Wedbush Morgan Securities expresses disappointment that the new management is giving themselves a three- to six-month window. Also, Pachter said of Feder, "he appears to have no meaningful experience managing a large organization, nor does his resume suggest that he has any practical experience in the video game industry."Game Politics has a roundup of more opinions regarding this executive shuffle. Our take, however limited in scope, is that Eibeler was a beacon for bad news. His ousting can only spell an upward trend.
Pachter gets one right; GameStop stock worth buying
When video game analysts are mentioned, most of us who closely follow game news think of Michael Pachter. Like any analyst, their predictions aren't perfect. In fact, many abide by the 51% rule; if you get at least 51% of your predictions right, you're a good analyst. Back in November, Pachter predicted GameStop (GME) to ride a wave of consumer spending on video games. GameStop has released some information proving that buy a good one. GameStop has increased its already strong revenue outlook by $50 million and its Q4 earnings per share from $1.53-$1.59 to $1.58-$1.60. On top of other interesting sales promotions, GameStop certainly enjoyed the console launches and top-selling games like Gears of War immensely. GameStop is still looking like a strong buy with the strong Xbox 360, PS3 and Wii lineups for 2007 along with continuing PS2 support (though not everyone is in consensus on this). Since we're going to make some money off this one, we're going to forgive Pachter for some of his missed predictions.
