We're here waiting for the 2009 Blu-ray Disc Association press conference to start and the first thing we noticed is that despite more studios going Blu in 2008, the panel is noticeably smaller. But what's more interesting is that there aren't any executives on the panel, only analysts.
4:52PM Andy says it isn't gone, just late getting here.
4:52PM Out very own Steeve Kim asks what ever happend to managed copy.
4:51PM This is up to the studios.
4:51PM Are there any plans to reduce the licensing fees for the AACS?
4:51PM Andy says this is starting to sound like a customer service issue, but it is really up to the studio.
4:50PM Andy says it is up to the studio and they may be doing it for quality or bonus features.
4:49PM The question is asked why TV series box sets are still using up so many discs and not taking advantage of the quantity?
4:48PM Andy goes on and mentions a few reasons why discs are better, but doesn't really answer the question.
4:47PM Tyler Pruitt from Format War Central wants to know if those who will want to own, will go disc and those who rent will go with downloads?
4:45PM Andy says he'll be happy when we get everyone looking at 1080p first.
4:45PM What about going beyond 1080p? Who is working on anything beyond 1080p?
4:44PM Dave Cowl from Blu-raystats.com asks about market share against DVD for the Dark Knight.
4:43PM Andy compares these predictions to the predictions of paperless offices, and we know how that turned out.
4:42PM Response to those who believe downloads will make Blu-ray irrelevant? Andy says he doesn't agree, and that the panel kinda already covered it. But ultimately the two aren't mutually exclusive.
4:41PM Does the 10.7 million players include PCs? No.
4:41PM Q&A time.
4:40PM A product announcement roundup slide comes up with 18 new products, 11 of which are BD Live.
4:39PM And Andy comes back on stage.
4:39PM Still waiting for something else to write, but at this point no one is really saying anything that we don't know they'd say. Discs are better, people like discs, etc.
4:33PM Ok, at this point things are really getting repetitive. Each member of the panel is now talking about what might help Blu-ray take over DVD; like BD Live, Digital Copy etc.
4:31PM Adam says Apple TV sales are tiny and Vudu is even "tinyer", but does believe that Netflix has the best chance. He also points out that because this is older catalog titles it isn't much competition for Blu-ray at this point.
4:30PM Paul says its easy to get optimistic about new technologies like digital downloads, but consumers aren't as quick to adopt new technology. Societal tendencies change slowly.
4:28PM Richard doesn't think that it is possible to build out broadband in the next five years to a point that can compete with the throughput of packaged media.
4:27PM He believes that both mediums will co-exist and be used by different people and for different uses. He believes that going to the video store is part of the experience.
4:26PM According to Adams, the internet downloadable content has gone from zero, to about half a billion, which even combined with cable's VOD it isn't enough to make an impact on packaged media.
4:25PM Adams has been tracking the business for 25 years and it has always been predicted that digital would replace packaged, but it hasn't.
4:24PM Paul believes the sales of Blu-ray hardware will continue to outpace DVDs adoption and that the prices are much more competitive than predicted.
4:23PM Adams believes that if it wasn't for the economic conditions that Blu-ray would be making up for the new loses in DVD.
4:22PM Richard said consumers surveyed said that the difference in Blu-ray over DVD is clear and that even family and friends could see it. He also attributes this to the acceptance of HDMI and says that more Blu-ray players are connected properly than cable STBs.
4:20PM Richard says he expects Blu-ray discs to sale even better, more like five or six times more sales in 2009 than 2008.
4:20PM Adams believes that they'll become more cautions about software sales due to the economic crisis, but still expects to see Blu-ray sales to double or triple.
4:17PM Tom Adams is up next and says that the incredible November helped Blu-ray exceed his expectations. Wal-Mart was a big part of this, with its inexpensive player.
4:16PM Richard Doherty says his company surveyed the few shoppers that were coming out of stores and found that understanding was pretty good for Blu-ray. But there is still some confusion in BD Live and Digital Copies.
4:14PM He believes the affect on the demand for Blu-ray of the economic conditions was overstated.
4:14PM Paul Erickson started out conservative because of current economic conditions, but after Black Friday he changed his position. He believes the overall demand for hardware and software will increase. He is now cautiously optimistic.
4:12PM The panel takes the stage, Paul Erickeson from DisplaySearch, Richard Doherty Envisioneering and Tom Adams Adams media research. Mike Snider of the USA Today is moderating.
4:11PM There is no formal proposal in the BDA in regards to 3D, but they think it is the best possible packaged media for 3D.
4:10PM Digital Copy has also been successful on Blu-ray with at least 53 BD titles including Digital Copies.
4:09PM The status of BD Live: there are at least 21 BD Live titles available now and 9 BD Live capable players on the market. If you include the PS3, 75% of all BD players are BD Live capable.
4:08PM In 2007 there were 5.67 million discs sold, with 30 million Blu-ray Discs sold (not shipped) since inception. This is a 4x increase since 2007.
4:07PM In software, there are nearly 1,100 Blu-ray titles available now. The Dark Knight was the first title to surpass the 1 million mark.
4:06PM There's a slide that shows the penetration of US homes at 3rd year, and Blu-ray is much higher than even HDTV or DVD at almost 8% of all households.
4:05PM According to the CEA, 5.4 million DVD players had shipped in three years in its launch.
4:04PM 10.7 Million Blu-ray capable players sales have shipped since inception in June of 2006, which does include the PS3.
4:03PM Andy Parsons come to the podium and starts off by sharing the agenda which will start with looking back at 2008.