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Rumor Roundup: iPhone 6 and 'iWatch' retrospective

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The iPhone 6 and Apple Watch have both been unveiled to the public. And lo, the rumor bloggers wept, for there were no more worlds to conquer.

As is customary, I've done a post-event roundup of the rumors. However, I went fully overboard this time. Not content to merely go over the past few months worth of nonsense, I looked at absolutely every rumor relating to either the iPhone 6 or the Apple Watch, going all the way back to the beginning of 2014. I could have gone back even farther, but I'd probably have died from that much short-term exposure to acute stupidity.

I learned a few things in the process and confirmed several long-held suspicions.

First, analysts really do not know a damned thing about Apple. Seriously. It's pitiful. It's so rare to see them actually get something right that I almost want to give them a cookie and a balloon when they finally do.

Second, parts leaks are pretty much the gold standard of rumors these days. If you see a photo of a component, chances are very good it's real. Apple has a serious problem with the secrecy in its supply chain; accurate blueprints of the iPhone 6 leaked in the beginning of April. That's nuts.

Third, and predictably, the farther away an Apple event is, the less likely any rumors are to be true. In fact, the correct rumors are so few and far between, and the ramp-up in accuracy and volume of rumors so steep in the month preceding an Apple event, that you could very easily pay no attention whatsoever to Apple rumors for 11 months out of the year and be far more well-informed than you would be if you followed them closely all year long.

Fourth, and just as predictably, it's easy to see why rumor bloggers get so defensive about having their accuracy records challenged: all they remember are the good months.

For transparency's sake, the entire log of 2014 rumors related to the iPhone 6 and the Apple Watch is below, complete with the source of the rumor, whether the rumor turned out to be true or not, and usually an explanation for why it wasn't correct.

Some interesting numbers came out of this based on my only partially mathematical and admittedly flawed scoring system:

Out of 189 total rumors, a consolidated total of 96 received points for being correct. That's just barely better odds than flipping a coin. Seems appropriate.

  • Digitimes' accuracy record was 0%. Shocker.
  • Analysts other than Ming-Chi Kuo scored 30%. This was way higher than I expected, but still nowhere near high enough to justify the amount of attention they're given.
  • "Accurate" Ming-Chi Kuo's record was 44%. And that was after being generous.
  • Rumors with Chinese websites as the source were accurate 47% of the time.
  • Rumors with Taiwanese websites as the source were accurate 31% of the time.
  • Bloggers reading way too much into things ended up being accurate 30% of the time.
  • 83% of all rumors sourced from leaked photos of identifiable parts (not ribbon cables, in other words) turned out to be accurate. There were a staggeringly high number of these leaks - almost 30 in total - and this one category considerably bumped up the overall rumor accuracy percentage.
  • All leaks sourced from within Foxconn were accurate.
  • August was by far the month with the most accurate rumors; 70% of rumors during this month turned out to be true.
  • 9to5 Mac's well of rumors sourced from Apple employees appears to have run dry since July. "I am convinced" Apple has fired someone because of the leaks.

January

Early 'iWatch' Production Seeing Poor Yields Due to Issues with Body Finish Treatments? (MacRumors)

Source: DigiTimes

True: No idea

There's no way of knowing for sure what actually caused the Apple Watch's "delayed" launch.

New report says 4.7-inch and 5.7-inch iPhones both coming this year (BGR)

Source: Chinese website

True: Yes

New iPhone 6 details possibly revealed! (BGR)

True: No

The thickness reported here was way off, and the iPhone 6 doesn't look a whole lot like the 5s.

Apple hits snags in 'iWatch' production, loses director of iPod software to Nest (AppleInsider)

Source: The Information

True: No idea

This could be the first ever image of the iPhone 6 frame (BGR)

Source: Parts leak

True: No

The iPhone 6 looks nothing like this thing.

iPhone 6 Rear Camera to Retain 8-Megapixel Sensor, Offer Improved Image Stabilization? (MacRumors)

Source: Some analyst

True: Yes

Next-gen iPhone may boast 5" 'full HD' display, flexible AMOLED for 'iWatch' (AppleInsider)

Source: Research firm

True: 50/50

The parts of this rumor that were correct were the display sizes for the iWatch (and perhaps its resolution) and the display resolution for the 5.5-inch iPhone 6. Everything else was way off.

Korean rumor suggests iWatch has 1.5-inch curved OLED, set for summer launch (9to5 Mac)

Source: Korean website

True: No

Absolutely nothing about this report was correct.

Apple's iPhone 6 will reportedly surprise us all and launch this summer (BGR)

Source: Some analyst

True: No

Absolutely nothing about this report was correct.

Analyst: Apple's 'iPhone 6' design 'locked down' with 4.8" display, 802.11ac Wi-Fi (AppleInsider)

Source: Some analyst

True: 50/50

He got the display size wrong, but everything else was a pretty good guess.

Apple iPhones to Come Out With Bigger Screens (Wall Street Journal)

Source: "People familiar with the matter"

True: Yes

Video: iPhone 6 parts purportedly shown in new leak (BGR)

Source: Parts leak

True: No

This was proven to be an iPhone 4s part.

Foxconn completes assembly testing for sapphire-covered iPhone - report (AppleInsider)

Source: Taiwanese website

True: No

The iPhone 6 doesn't have a sapphire display coating.

Apple Pushes Deeper Into Mobile Payments (Wall Street Journal)

Source: "People familiar with the matter"

True: Yes

The iPhone 6 may have a different kind of wireless charging (BGR)

Source: Some analyst

True: No

Not even remotely close.

January totals: 15 rumors, 5 correct

February

iWatch + iOS 8: Apple sets out to redefine mobile health, fitness tracking (9to5 Mac)

Source: Apple employee leak

True: Yes

This report was mostly true, except for the name of the app... which, of course, Apple changed because of the leak. *eyeroll*

IPHONE 6 LEAK: Almost every last detail about the iPhone 6 possibly revealed in new report (BGR)

Source: Some analyst

True: No

Aside from the screen sizes, which had already been reported elsewhere, none of this is accurate.

iPhone 6 Rumored to Include 10+-Megapixel Camera with f/1.8 Aperture and Improved Filter (MacRumors)

Source: Chinese website

True: No

None of this turned out to be accurate.

Apple rumored to use sapphire screen for 'iWatch,' but not next-gen iPhone (AppleInsider)

Source: Chinese websites

True: Yes

iPhone 6 Said to Adopt 'Bezel-Free' Display (MacRumors)

Source: Korean website

True: No

Next iPhone reportedly sports a larger screen and sapphire crystal display (9to5 Mac)

Source: Chinese website

True: No

No points awarded for the display size, which had already been reported elsewhere, especially since the reported pixel density was way off. And, of course, the display isn't sapphire. Also, the iPhone 5c wasn't removed from the lineup, and the 5s isn't made from "cheaper materials." Fail.

Apple Likely to Slim Down iPhone and iPad with Thinner and Lighter Backlights (MacRumors)

Source: Research firm

True: 50/50

The report on the tech itself was correct, but the reported June launch date for the iPhone 6 was way off.

Alleged iPhone 6 Prototype Depicted in New Images (MacRumors)

Source: Fake

True: No

Apple's 'iWatch' rumored to use optoelectronics to monitor heart rate, blood oxygen levels (AppleInsider)

Source: Some analyst

True: 50/50

Apple is using an optically-bases solution to measure heart rate, but full-fledged oximetry doesn't seem to be a feature.

TPK to Reportedly Supply Flexible AMOLED Panels For Apple's iWatch (MacRumors)

Source: Digitimes

True: No

Nothing about this report is true.

Rumor: Apple working on 4.7", 5.6" iPhones for release in Q3 2014 (AppleInsider)

Source: Taiwanese website

True: No

Virtually everything about this "report" was way off the mark.

Apple bought '3-year supply' of 4.5" sapphire displays, says Canonical CEO (AppleInsider)

Source: Some CEO

True: No

February totals: 12 rumors, 3 correct

March

Apple sapphire supplier's projected 2H14 revenues likely indicate fall iPhone launch (9to5 Mac)

Source: Reading way too much into things

True: No

Although the iPhone 6 did indeed launch in the fall, none of the tea-leaf reading over sapphire displays turned out to be true or have anything to do with the iPhone.

New report says iPhone 6 will launch in July (BGR)

Source: Some analyst

True: No

Off by two months.

Leak: iPhone 6 component photo may reveal major design overhaul (BGR)

Source: Fake

True: No

iPhone 6 camera will be even better without entering the megapixel war (BGR)

Source: Chinese website

True: 50/50

They were right about the megapixel rating, but off on all other specs.

Rumor: Design of Apple's new big-screen iPhone will be cross between iPhone 5c & 7th-gen iPod nano (AppleInsider)

Source: Japanese website

True: No

Not even close.

This is Healthbook, Apple's major first step into health & fitness tracking (9to5 Mac)

Source: Apple employee leak

True: Mostly

The user interface is significantly different, as is the name. All "because" of this leak.

HUUUGE IPHONE 6 LEAK -- Insider claims to reveal iPhone 6 specs (BGR)

Source: Some guy on Twitter

True: No

Absolutely none of these specs are correct.

YET ANOTHER iPhone 6 leak seemingly reveals more details on Apple's next iPhone (BGR)

Source: Some analyst

True: 1/3

The iPhone 6 has a barometer, but none of the other sensors mentioned.

Significantly improved camera again tipped for the iPhone 6 (BGR)

Source: Some CFO.

True: Probably

There's no way of knowing whether the substance of this report is truly accurate until iFixit tears down the iPhone 6 Plus, but the fact remains the device does indeed have optical image stabilsation as suggested.

Apple expected to sit out on megapixel horserace with 2014 iPhones (AppleInsider)

Source: "People familiar with the matter"

True: Yes

New leak may finally reveal Apple's iPhone 6 design (BGR)

Source: Mockup

True: No

The design shown closely resembles the front and back of the iPhone 6, but the sides are totally wrong.

Apple is working on two versions of the iPhone 6... but only one might launch this fall (BGR)

Source: Some analyst

True: No

Although this guy was correct in his assertion that Apple would launch two phones, nothing else was correct.

iPhone 6 Reportedly Launching 'As Early As September' in 4.7- and 5.5-Inch Sizes (MacRumors)

Source: Japanese website

True: Yes

New leak may give us our first look at the iPhone 6′s dimensions (BGR)

Source: Fake

True: No

March totals: 14 rumors, 4 5/6 correct

April

IPHONE 6 LEAK: This could be our first look at the completely redesigned iPhone 6 (BGR)

Source: Mockup based on a leaked blueprint

True: Yes

The mockup itself was a bit off, as was the mention of a 5.7-inch iPhone, but the leaked blueprint turned out to be the first accurate look at the 4.7-inch iPhone 6.

Purported iPhone 6 pictures show protruding camera, rounded edges (9to5 Mac)

Source: Foolhardy Foxconn employee

True: Yes

Reuters: Production of 'iPhone 6' screens to begin in May, 5.5" model delayed (AppleInsider)

Source: Supply chain sources

True: Probably

The "delay" mentioned was a production delay, not a release delay. This will probably turn out to be correct.

Barclays: Apple's 'iWatch' could include UV light exposure sensor (AppleInsider)

Source: Some analyst

True: No

Apple Reportedly Targeting Q3 2014 Launch for iWatch (MacRumors)

Source: Digitimes

True: No

Apple Expected to Unveil iWatch in September as Suppliers Deliver Circuit Board Samples (MacRumors)

Source: Digitimes

True: No

Although the unveiling date was correct, the details were not: Digitimes expected the device to have a "flexible circuit board."

Mass Production of 4.7-Inch iPhone 6 Set for July, 5.5-Inch Version Beginning in September (MacRumors)

Source: Japanese website

True: No

This report was one of many incorrectly claiming the 4.7-inch and 5.5-inch iPhones would be announced at different times.

LEAK: Does this leaked image show iOS 8 on the iPhone 6? (BGR)

Source: Fake

True: No

Apple's 2014 Product Roadmap: New iWatch, iPhones, iPads, Apple TV, and MacBooks Coming (MacRumors)

Source: "Accurate" analyst Ming-Chi Kuo

True: 50/50

This darling of the rumor blogs got many details right, but he also got many wrong:

"The iWatch will ship during the end of the third quarter"

"flexible AMOLED display"

"both models of iPhone 6 will have optical image stablization"

"only the 64 GB 5.5-inch version will use sapphire displays"

Kuo's product roadmap also shows the 5.5-inch iPhone launching significantly later than the 4.7-inch version.

iPhone 6 Could See Sleep/Wake Button Move, 401 ppi in 5.5" Model, Sapphire Display in High-End Phones (MacRumors)

Source: "Accurate" analyst Ming-Chi Kuo

True: 50/50

"In line with previous rumors, Kuo believes the new 4.7-inch model will come with a 1334x750 Retina display at 326 pixels per inch, while the 5.5" will see a 1920x1080 screen at 401 ppi"

Correct, but no points awarded for parroting what everyone else was saying.

"The iPhone 6 will include a new A8 processor, 1GB of RAM, Touch ID, a narrower bezel by 10 to 20 percent, and the phone to be thinned to 6.5-7.0mm (the current iPhone 5 is 7.6mm thick). He also expects Apple to finally include NFC chips in its smart phones."

All correct, except for the RAM, which is still unknown. However, it's not exactly rocket science to say the A8 will follow the A7, and saying a next-gen Apple product will be thinner than the previous gen is like saying a next-gen Mac will be faster than the one before it. It's such a safe bet it's not even funny. As for NFC, that was a rumor absolutely every single year since the 4s.

"The 5.5" phone won't be operable with one hand"

Wrong.

"He expects the 5.5" iPhone 6 to debut later in the holiday quarter"

Wrong.

"The 5.5" iPhone will also see a significantly larger battery -- 50% to 70% more watt-hours than the iPhone 5s -- to power the larger screen, and also because there will be more real estate inside the case."

Correct, but this is another duh-worthy prediction.

"Kuo says only high-end iPhones -- like the 64GB 5.5" iPhone 6 -- may include a sapphire screen cover due to supply constraints"

Wrong.

"He expects the iPhone's rear camera to remain at 8 megapixels and f2.2 aperture, but it will see an adoption of optical image stabilization technologies to improve image quality without increasing pixel number, a frequent goal of Apple's in the past"

Correct-ish. Only the iPhone 6 Plus got OIS.

"Finally, Kuo expects production of the iPhone 4s and 4 to be ended, with the iPhone 5s and 5c filling as the more inexpensive options in Apple's smartphone lineup."

Correct, but another duh-worthy prediction.

iWatch cost could be subsidized by health insurers, analyst suggests (9to5 Mac)

Source: Some analyst

True: No

Redesigned iPhone 6 seemingly revealed by third-party case maker (BGR)

Source: Case maker

True: Yes

Latest unverified photos from Weibo claim to show iPhone 6 schematics, production tools (9to5 Mac)

Source: Foolhardy Foxconn employee

True: Probably

New report says iWatch will be significantly cheaper than expected (BGR)

Source: Some analyst

True: No

Apple reportedly negotiating with carriers for $100 price increase on iPhone 6 (MacRumors)

Source: Some analyst

True: No

New Photo of Alleged iPhone 6 Manufacturing Mold Hints at 4.7-Inch Display (MacRumors)

Source: Foolhardy Foxconn employee

True: Probably

Rumor: First photo of supposed 'iPhone 6' front panel surfaces (AppleInsider)

Source: Parts leak

True: Probably

Alleged iPhone 6 Batteries Photographed in Production Tray (MacRumors)

Source: Foolhardy Foxconn employee

True: Probably

Closer look at alleged 'iPhone 6' front panel suggests 5.1" screen with 16:9 ratio (AppleInsider)

Source: CSI Fail

True: No

Another Alleged iPhone 6 Case Surfaces with Cutouts for Moved Power Button, New Volume Controls (MacRumors)

Source: Case maker

True: Yes

How Apple Could Make the Move to 4.7" iPhone Displays (MacRumors)

Source: Reading way too much into things

True: 50/50

The homescreen analysis is correct, but the bit about "unoptimized" apps being run in a letterbox is wrong.

Apple trademark update suggests company may enter jewelry business, hinting at rumored 'iWatch' (AppleInsider)

Source: Trademark application

True: Yes (ish)

This turned out to be either a red herring or a clever hedge against some unscrupulous rival (coughSamsungcough) claiming the name iWatch.

Taiwanese media claims 5.5inch iPhone 6 to be very thin, special battery components causing delays (9to5 Mac)

Source: Taiwanese website

True: 50/50

The 5.5-inch iPhone 6 has probably seen production delays, but not to the extent suggested in this report.

Apple and Nike reportedly developing a 'smart band' with gesture controls (BGR)

Source: Unnamed

True: No

Apple's watch is clearly 100% Apple's watch.

Rumor: Apple's 'iPhone 6' may sport curved edges, display glass (AppleInsider)

Source: Japanese website

True: Yes

iPhone 6 renders supposedly meant for accessory manufacturers leak, claim 6mm thinness (9to5 Mac)

Source: Mockup

True: 50/50

The overall design and most dimensions are correct, but the thickness is off by almost a full millimeter.

iPhone 6 Camera May Feature Electronic Image Stabilization, Bigger Pixel Size (MacRumors)

Source: Some analyst

True: 25%

The 4.7-inch iPhone 6 does use electronic image stabilization. Everything else in this report is wrong.

iWatch Reportedly Entering Production in Small Quantities Ahead of Fall 2014 Launch (MacRumors)

Source: Chinese website

True: No

Photos show highly suspect 'iPhone 6' dummy with ultra-slim design, rounded edges (AppleInsider)

Source: Mockup

True: Yes

Features that AppleInsider called "suspect" turned out to be correct.

April totals: 29 rumors, 14 3/4 true

May

iPhone 6 Physical Mockup Allegedly Based on Real Machine Schematics Surfaces (MacRumors)

Source: Mockup

True: Mostly

Again, the thickness was off by 0.9 millimeters, but otherwise this was about right.

4.7″ iPhone 6 could be available in August, 5.5″ model in September (9to5 Mac)

Source: Taiwanese website

True: No

Sketchy supplier renders of 4.7-inch iPhone 6 surface online (9to5 Mac)

Source: Chinese website

True: Yes

Apple Reportedly Integrating NFC Technology into iPhone 6 (MacRumors)

Source: "People familiar with the matter"

True: Yes

Rumor: Apple already restricting retail employee time off in Sept., its usual iPhone launch window (AppleInsider)

Source: Apple retail employees in Germany

True: Yes

iPhone 6 with larger, sharper 1704 x 960 resolution screen in testing (9to5 Mac)

Source: Reading way too much into things

True: No

The only accurate part of this report is the bit on 3x mode, which is only featured in the iPhone 6 plus. 9to5 struck out badly on everything else.

Morgan Stanley predicts Apple will incorporate NFC into future iPhone for mobile payments (AppleInsider)

Source: Some analyst

True: Yes

Slab of metal that vaguely resembles 'iPhone 6' leaks spotted in Romania (AppleInsider)

Source: Probably the Romanian mafia

True: Who knows?

Latest Weibo leak shows supposed 4.7-inch iPhone screen backlight part (9to5 Mac)

Source: Chinese website

True: Impossible to tell

iWATCH LEAK: New report reveals crucial design details for Apple's iWatch (BGR)

Source: Some analyst

True: No

Apple's iWatch will pack the most important tech most smartwatches are missing (BGR)

Source: Chinese website

True: Yes

Alleged iPhone 6 Back Cover Shown Off in New Photo (MacRumors)

Source: Parts leak

True: Yes

Apple discussing iPhone payments service with high-profile retail brands (9to5 Mac)

Source: Apple employee leak

True: Mostly, except for this bit: "The sources briefed on Apple's talks with retailers said that the discussions are exploratory and it does not appear that such an Apple payments service is in the cards to launch in the near future."

May totals: 13 rumors, 8 correct

June

Accessory Makers Ramping Up for 5.5-Inch iPhone 6, Sparking Speculation of September Launch (MacRumors)

Source: Some analyst

True: Yes

New source: iPhone 6 will feature NFC, wireless charging, better 4G antenna, & a much bigger screen (VentureBeat)

Source: "People familiar with the matter"

True: 75% - wireless charging was a no-show feature.

GET READY... New leak supposedly shows the actual, completely redesigned iPhone 6! (BGR)

Source: Parts leaks

True: Yes

5.5-Inch iPhone 6 May Cost an Extra $100, but Consumers Willing to Pay (MacRumors)

Source: Some analyst

True: Yes

Apple reportedly has enough sapphire for massive iPhone 6 and iWatch launches (BGR)

Source: "Supply chain checks"

True: No

Photos of 4.7-Inch and 5.5-Inch iPhone 6 Model (MacRumors)

Source: Mockups

True: Yes

iPhone 6 Sapphire Display Limited to 5.5" Model as LG Struggles with iWatch Display Power Draw? (MacRumors)

Source: Taiwanese website

True: No

iPhone 6 likely to sport barometer/air pressure sensors to measure altitude, weather (9to5 Mac)

Source: Deep dive into iOS 8 code

True: Yes

2.5-Inch iWatch with Wireless Charging and Pulse Sensor to Enter Mass Production in July (MacRumors)

Source: "People familiar with the matter"

True: 50/50

The size and launch date were way off. The other details were correct.

Apple now has two sapphire plants for the upcoming iPhone 6 (BGR)

Source: Some analyst

True: No

Whether Apple has two plants or not, the fact remains the iPhone 6 doesn't have a sapphire face.

WSJ: Apple planning multiple iWatch models with as many as 10 health-related sensors (Wall Street Journal)

Source: "People familiar with the matter"

True: 50/50

Ten is probably an overly generous number for the sensors involved in the Apple Watch.

Hit the road, jack: Why Apple may say goodbye to the headphone plug (Macworld)

Source: Reading way too much into things

True: No

Here are the first photos of the 5.5-inch iPhone 6′s alleged display part (9to5 Mac)

Source: Some guy on Twitter

True: Too vague to tell

Bloomberg: Two iPhone 6 models will go into mass production in July, will go on sale at the same time (9to5 Mac)

Source: "People familiar with the matter"

True: Yes

KGI: 4.7″ iPhone's camera may not support optical image stabilization, 5.5″ likely will (9to5 Mac)

Source: Some analyst

True: Yes

iPhone 6 Said to Launch on Friday, September 19 in 32 GB and 64 GB Variants (MacRumors)

Source: Chinese website

True: 50/50

The launch date is right, but there is no 32 GB iPhone 6.

Only the 5.5-Inch iPhone 6 May Offer 128GB Models (MacRumors)

Source: Chinese website

True: No

HUGE IPHONE 6 LEAK: Actual iPhone 6 housing revealed on video for the first time! (BGR)

Source: Parts leak

True: Yes

For Apple fans dreaming of sapphire iPhones, Liquidmetal could be a cautionary tale (AppleInsider)

Source: Reading way too much into things

True: Yes

June totals: 17 rumors, 9 1/2 correct

July

iPhone 6 mockups are a 'rough approximation' according to report, claims antenna design will differ signifcantly (9to5 Mac)

Source: Japanese website

True: 50/50 - the report claimed the visible antenna bands weren't a final part of the design. Turns out they were.

Report: iPhone 6 will use new display tech for thinner design, could cause yield issues (9to5 Mac)

Source: Chinese website

True: Yes

First comparison photos of black and white 4.7-inch iPhone 6 screen glass [Gallery] (9to5 Mac)

Source: Parts leak

True: Yes

HERE WE GO... New leak shows internal iPhone 6 parts for the first time! (BGR)

Source: Parts leak (?)

True: Who knows? They're ribbon cables.

Rumor: Apple's 'iPhone 6' to launch on Sept. 25, larger 5.5" version dubbed 'iPhone Air' (AppleInsider)

Source: Chinese website

True: No

New Video Shows Closer Look at Purported 4.7-Inch iPhone 6 Front Panel (MacRumors)

Source: Parts leak

True: Yes

Apple's iWatch again said to launch in October (BGR)

Source: Chinese website

True: No

iPhone 6 May See Only Modest Battery Capacity Boost as Apple Pursues Ultra-Slim Designs (MacRumors)

Source: Chinese website

True: It depends on whether you classify the improvements in the iPhone 6's battery life as "modest" or not. I'll give this one a passing grade, because why not.

Sapphire 4.7″ iPhone 6 display put through its paces with knife and keys in new scratch test video (9to5 Mac)

Source: Parts leak

True: 50/50. This is an iPhone 6 display all right, but it's not made of sapphire.

IPHONE 6 LEAK: New iPhone 6 parts leak reaffirms huge redesign (BGR)

Source: Parts leak (?)

True: Who knows? Ribbon cables, again.

4.7-Inch iPhone 6 Rear Shell Shown in High-Quality Photos and Video (MacRumors)

Source: Parts leak

True: Yes

The sketchy iPhone 6 rumors keep coming – haptic feedback & 68M orders (9to5 Mac)

Source: Chinese website

True: No

Claimed iPhone 6 Front Frame with LCD Shielding and Home Button Bracket Shown in New Photo (MacRumors)

Source: Parts leak

True: No - this part was for the Amazon Fire Phone according to iFixit.

Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo: Apple "iWatch" mass production pushed back to November (AppleInsider)

Source: "Accurate" analyst Ming-Chi Kuo

True: No. The Apple Watch isn't launching at all until next year, not in late 2014 as Kuo claimed.

Expert Believes Alleged iPhone 6 Sapphire Front Panel Could Be 'Legitimate' (MacRumors)

Source: Some college professor

True: No. The iPhone 6 doesn't have a sapphire display cover.

Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo: Apple's 5.5-inch 'iPhone 6' faces production issues, launch may be pushed to 2015 (AppleInsider)

Source: "Accurate" analyst Ming-Chi Kuo

True: No. Absolutely nothing in thie report was correct.

Chinese report claims iWatch to come in three models, sapphire and non-sapphire varieties (9to5 Mac)

Source: Chinese website

True: 1/3

There are sapphire and non-sapphire versions, and there are three models of Apple Watch. Everything else about this report, including the reported sizes, is wrong.

New Photos of Purported iPhone 6 Battery Show 1,810 mAh Capacity (MacRumors)

Source: Parts leak

True: Probably. Will have to wait for the iFixit teardown to be sure.

iPhone 6 Said to Feature Sony's 13-Megapixel Exmor IMX220 Camera Sensor (MacRumors)

Source: Chinese website

True: No

Analysts believe sapphire display covers will be limited to high-end iPhone 6 models only (9to5 Mac)

Source: Some analysts

True: No. No iPhone 6 models have sapphire displays.

Intriguing 5.5-inch iPhone 6 battery design shown in new leak (BGR)

Source: Parts leak

True: No

Photos purport to show 'iPhone 6' Lightning port, microphone flex cable (AppleInsider)

Source: Parts leak (?)

True: Who knows, because ribbon cables.

Rumor: Rear shell for 4.7" 'iPhone 6' shown with inlaid Apple logo in new photos (AppleInsider)

Source: Parts leak

True: Yes

Apple 'tentatively' plans mid-September iPhone event as iOS 8 nears completion (9to5 Mac)

Source: Apple employee leak

True: 50/50

I'm going to be pendantic and say September 9 doesn't qualify as "mid-September." Also, this rumor totally missed out on the fact that the Apple Watch was launching at this event.

Apple reportedly discussing mobile wallet plans with credit card companies, may launch with iPhone 6 (9to5 Mac)

Source: "People familiar with the matter"

True: Yes

Apple Launching 5.5-Inch iPhone 6 After 4.7-Inch Version to Avoid Competition Between Two Models (MacRumors)

Source: Digitimes

True: No. Not even close.

Possible 5.5-inch iPhone 6 Volume/Power Flex Cable and SIM Card Tray Shown in New Images (MacRumors)

Source: Parts leak (?)

True: Who knows. Ribbon cables. Yeeeeet again.

Bare iPhone 6 Logic Board Surfaces, Claimed to Support NFC and 802.11ac Wi-Fi (MacRumors)

Source: Parts leak

True: Yes

Purported 5.5-in. iPhone logic board surfaces alongside 'iPhone 6' part in new photos (AppleInsider)

Source: Parts leak

True: Yes

An iPhone 6 case we can believe in (TUAW)

Source: Case maker

True: Yes

Rumor: 'iWatch' production hits snags, will not begin until Q4 2014 (AppleInsider)

Source: Apple supplier profit forecast

True: Unknown

Don't hold your breath for an iPhone 6 with sapphire glass (BGR)

Source: Industrial analysis firm

True: Yes

iPhone 6 Said to Launch on Tuesday, October 14, Part of 'Incredibly Busy' Month for Apple (MacRumors)

Source: Apple Retail employee (allegedly)

True: No

July totals: 33 rumors, 13 5/6 true (not counting BS ribbon cable "leaks")

August

Apple likely to ship only 3 million 'iWatch' units this year, analyst Ming-Chi Kuo says (AppleInsider)

Source: "Accurate" analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.

True: No. Apple will ship zero watches this year.

Analyst: Apple could equip 5.5" 'iPhone 6' with more powerful processor than 4.7" model (AppleInsider)

Source: Some analyst.

True: No

BAD NEWS, iPHONE FANS: Now we know why the iPhone 6's release date might get pushed back to October (BGR)

Source: "Accurate" analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.

True: BAD NEWS, MING-CHI KUO FANS: No.

Apple to Hold iPhone Event on Sept. 9 (re/code)

Source: "People familiar with the matter"

True: Yes

Report Claims 4.7-Inch iPhone 6 Will Feature 2,100 mAh Battery (MacRumors)

Source: Some analyst.

True: Probably not. Will have to wait for an iFixit teardown to be sure.

Apple's iPhone 6 line will sport faster Wi-Fi, improved fingerprint reader, A8 chip confirmed (VentureBeat)

Source: "People familiar with the matter"

True: Yes

New images provide clearest look yet at iPhone 6 front panel (9to5 Mac)

Source: Parts leak

True: Yes

Plethora of alleged 'iPhone 6' parts show Apple logo, cables & camera ring (AppleInsider)

Source: Parts leak

True: Yes

Round 'True Tone' Flash for iPhone 6 Revealed in Latest Part Leak (MacRumors)

Source: Parts leak

True: Yes

This probably isn't the iPhone 6 retail box you were looking for (BGR)

Source: Fake

True: No

iPhone 6 Reportedly Entering Final Quality Control Stage Ahead of Mass Production (MacRumors)

Source: Chinese website

True: Probably

PROOF that Apple is launching two new bigger iPhones this fall (BGR)

Source: Loose-lipped Thai government official

True: Yes

iPhone 6 Front Panel, Power Button, and Mute Switch Shown in High-Quality Photos (MacRumors)

Source: Parts leak

True: Yes

Assembled iPhone 6 Logic Board Revealed in New Photo (MacRumors)

Source: Parts leak

True: Yes

Higher-End 4.7 and 5.5-Inch iPhone 6 to Get Sapphire Displays, Higher Price Tags (MacRumors)

Source: Wall Street Journal

True: No

Photos Claiming to Be of New Lightning Cable with Reversible USB Connector Surface (MacRumors)

Source: Chinese website

True: No

NEW iPHONE 6 LEAK shows how Apple could fix one of the worst things about phablets (BGR)

Source: Reading way too much into things

True: No

The iPhone's sapphire future comes into focus (Macworld)

Source: Reading way too much into things

True: No

Apparent Photo of 5.5-Inch iPhone 6 Battery Reveals 2,915 mAh Capacity (MacRumors)

Source: Parts leak

True: Probably

Another purported 'iPhone 6' leak suggests Apple's 4.7" model will have larger 1810mAh battery (AppleInsider)

Source: Foolhardy Foxconn employee

True: Probably

Rumor: Schematic suggests NFC chip in 'iPhone 6,' RAM remains unknown [u] (AppleInsider)

Source: Chinese website

True: Yes

Apple unlikely to sell sapphire iPhones this year, is setting the stage for future models - JP Morgan (AppleInsider)

Source: Some analyst

True: Yes

iPhone 6 Said to Feature Faster Qualcomm MDM9625 LTE Modem with LTE-Advanced Support (MacRumors)

Source: Parts leak

True: Yes

Apple's iWatch May Not Launch Until 2015 (MacRumors)

Source: "Accurate" analyst Ming-Chi Kuo

True: Yes. Look at that, he finally got one right.

4.7-Inch iPhone 6 Screen Put Under Microscope as New 1472 x 828 Resolution Emerges (MacRumors)

Source: Reading way too much into things

True: No. Both of the purported resolutions cited in this report were wrong.

Alleged Schematic Shows Protruding Camera Ring on 4.7-Inch iPhone 6 (MacRumors)

Source: Taiwanese website

True: Yes

New photos claim to show 5.5-inch 'iPhone 6L' shell compared to smaller model (9to5 Mac)

Source: Parts leak

True: Yes

128 GB iPhone 6? Leaked schematics suggest it may happen (9to5 Mac)

Source: Chinese website

True: Yes

iPhone 6 Information Leak Sourced from Foxconn Details Dimensions of 4.7-Inch and 5.5-Inch Versions (MacRumors)

Source: Some foolhardy Foxconn employee

True: Yes

More Supply Chain Claims of Likely Early 2015 Launch for iWatch (MacRumors)

Source: Taiwanese website

True: Yes

Conjecture Regarding Larger iPhone Displays (Daring Fireball)

Source: Reading way too much into things

True: 50/50

Gruber nailed the 4.7-inch iPhone 6's resolution, but not the 5.5-inch.

Next-generation M7 coprocessor, codenamed 'Phosphorus', reportedly shown in iPhone schematics (U: Likely expected barometer/air pressure sensor) (9to5 Mac)

Source: Chinese website

True: Yes

HUGE IPHONE 6 LEAK: Here's another major iPhone 6 change you didn't see coming (BGR)

Source: Parts leak (heh)

True: Yes

More Evidence of NFC Support for Both iPhone 6 Models (MacRumors)

Source: Parts leak

True: Yes

Apple Plans to Announce Wearable in September (re/code)

Source: "People familiar with the matter"

True: Yes

August totals: 35, 24 1/2 correct

September

Our Sources Say the Next iPhone Will Include NFC Mobile Payments (WIRED)

Source: "People familiar with the matter"

True: Yes

Analyst & GTAT investor claims all 5.5-inch iPhone 6 models get sapphire, some 4.7-inch models (9to5 Mac)

Source: Some analyst

True: No

The iPhone 6 you're waiting for might not be unveiled on September 9th (BGR)

Source: Chinese website

True: No

Apple Wearable Won't Ship Until Next Year (re/code)

Source: "People familiar with the matter"

True: Yes

New pictures show off alleged iPhone 6 logic board, A8, and NFC chip (9to5 Mac)

Source: Parts leak

True: Yes

Support for 3x image assets found in latest iOS 8 beta ahead of larger display iPhone 6 (9to5 Mac)

Source: Deep dive into iOS 8

True: Yes

4.7-Inch iPhone 6 Built From Parts Supports Theory of 1334 x 750 Display (MacRumors)

Source: Parts leak/reading way too much into things

True: Yes

Apple execs discuss $400 price point for wearable with the media, what do you think? (9to5 Mac)

Source: "People familiar with the matter"

True: No. The Apple Watch starts at $349.

Apple has reached agreements w/ American Express & MasterCard to work on iPhone payments system (9to5 Mac)

Source: "People familiar with the matter"

True: Yes

Analyst says not to expect reversible USB Lightning connector to ship with iPhone 6 (9to5 Mac)

Source: "Accurate" analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.

True: Yes. I'll give this one to him even though he simply told us something we all knew anyway.

iWatch Said to Be at 'Engineering Verification Test' Stage, Components Now in Production (MacRumors)

Source: Digitimes

True: No.

Apple reportedly discussing mobile payment partnership with Nordstrom (9to5 Mac)

Source: "People familiar with the matter"

True: Yes

A lot of speculation arises around U2's involvement in iPhone 6 launch (9to5 Mac)

Source: Bono, probably.

True: Mostly.

KGI on iWatch: 8 GB storage, 512 MB RAM, 1.3 and 1.5 inch screen, gold option (9to5 Mac)

Source: "Accurate" analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.

True: Apple didn't announce any detailed tech specs for its watch, so these are a wash. All of the other details are correct or close enough.

KGI report claims both iPhone 6 models to offer 128GB storage; iPad Air 2 launch on same day (9to5 Mac)

Source: "Accurate" analyst Ming Chi Kuo

True: 1/5

Correct: "both 4.7- and 5.5-inch models of the iPhone 6 will be launched next week and will both offer 128GB storage option"

Incorrect: "iPad Air 2 will be announced on the same day as the iPhone 6 rather than in a separate event in October"

"the power button – moved to the side – could be a programmable multi-function key, perhaps launching a specific app in response to a long or short press"

"The camera lens will, he predicts, lose its sapphire coating after failing drop tests"

"the 5.5-inch model will go on sale at a later date"

iWatch With Curved OLED Display to Include NFC for Mobile Payments (MacRumors)

Source: Wall Street Journal

True: 50/50. No mention was made of OLED technology in the display.

U2 says reports of Apple tie-up for 'iPhone 6' are untrue (AppleInsider)

Source: A liar

True: No

NYT: iWatch to feature flexible display panel, wireless charging, iPhone 6 to have 'one handed mode' (9to5 Mac)

Source: "People familiar with the matter"

True: 1/3. The Apple Watch doesn't have a flexible display.

Apple reportedly negotiated transaction fee discounts w/ major banks ahead of mobile payment system (9to5 Mac)

Source: "People familiar with the matter"

True: Probably

Rear Camera of 5.5-Inch iPhone 6 With Optical Stabilization and Other Parts Shown in New Photos (MacRumors)

Source: Parts leak

True: Yes

5.5-inch iPhone 6 may run landscape apps with more productive iPad-like interface (9to5 Mac)

Source: Deep dive into iOS 8

True: Yes

September totals: 21 rumors, 13 correct.

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