Chance it's true: 0.01 percent. Because Digitimes.
What better way to close out 2014 than with a rumor from the worst of all sources? (I can think of several hundred better ways, but most of them are unprintable.)
Digitimes got exactly one of its multitudinous rumors correct this year. Absolutely everything else they've ever said about Apple has either turned out to be completely incorrect or simply unverifiable.
MacRumors, predictably, doesn't mention Digitimes' absolutely terrible accuracy record. At all. Not even a "sometimes reliable" for old times' sake.
Predictably, BGR doesn't acknowledge Digitimes' poor record, either. AppleInsider passingly mentions "a poor track record with respect to Apple rumors" in the first paragraph. Only 9to5 Mac bothers to go the extra mile (well... more like ten yards) by noting that Digitimes had previously claimed this long-rumored device would launch in October.
I would like to believe that 2015 will be a fresh start for Apple journalism, that these rumor blogs will take a long, hard look at something other than their pageviews and realize that continuing to reblog nonsense from birdcage-liner publications like Digitimes is not only damaging their own credibility, but the credibility of tech reporting in general. I'd like to believe that. But I don't. 2015 is just going to be more of the same.
Source: Some analyst
Chance it's true: None whatsoever
This has all the typical watermarks of analyst nonsense: a "note to investors" sourced from "supply chain checks" that pairs grandiose claims of forthcoming Apple products with "insight" that betrays the author's total cluelessness when it comes to Apple. Refer to this gem: "The new 4-inch 'iPhone 6s mini' may include 'purpose-built low cost components' from Qualcomm to keep the price down."
Point 1: That's the stupidest name for a rumored Apple product that I've ever heard. It sounds like something Samsung would come up with.
Point 2: The reference to "purpose-built low cost components" is another big red flag. It makes it sound like this guy is claiming this phone will be built on the cheap, and sold on the cheap, in order to expand Apple's marketshare. You know, basically a re-run of the rumors leading up to the iPhone 5c, rumors which turned out to be completely off the mark.
I have little doubt that Apple will indeed come out with a new 4-inch version of the iPhone next year. It'll most likely be an updated version of the iPhone 5c, with Touch ID and internal components identical to the iPhone 5s. Don't get your hopes up for anything more spectacular than that... especially if some analyst is the one telling you otherwise.