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Entelligence: Putting a spotlight on the invisible
Entelligence is a column by technology strategist and author Michael Gartenberg, a man whose desire for a delicious cup of coffee and a quality New York bagel is dwarfed only by his passion for tech. In these articles, he'll explore where our industry is and where it's going -- on both micro and macro levels -- with the unique wit and insight only he can provide. When Apple refreshed the latest version of the iPod nano, the combination of the square form factor, touch display, clip and cool clock app made me think it would make a great watch. I was not alone. I've already seen a number of vendors scrambling to create straps and wrist cases for the nano. While Apple stopped well short of calling it a watch replacement, there's no doubt Cupertino will be looking carefully to see if there's an iWatch in your future. From Microsoft's Smart Personal Object Technology devices to watches that ran Palm OS, vendors have tried and failed to push high-tech watches every few years. I personally think the watch space and the larger invisible space hasn't been exploited properly beyond the core feature of telling time. Here's why.
Entelligence: Will carriers destroy the Android vision?
Entelligence is a column by technology strategist and author Michael Gartenberg, a man whose desire for a delicious cup of coffee and a quality New York bagel is dwarfed only by his passion for tech. In these articles, he'll explore where our industry is and where it's going -- on both micro and macro levels -- with the unique wit and insight only he can provide. It's an unfortunately familiar phenomena -- PC vendors suffering from razor thin margins load their devices with more stickers than a stock car and install gigabytes of useless applications that serve only to take up space and use system resources. Sony was perhaps the most egregious in 2008, offering to remove the offending bloatware for a $50 fee. It's as if Tony Soprano went into tech -- "Pay us and we won't mess up your computer." It's deja vu all over again for mobile phones. More and more devices I look at are coming installed with applications I don't want, often popping up messages to try and upsell me on services I have no interest in. Even worse, unlike PCs where offensive applications can be removed or the OS reinstalled cleanly, there's often nothing that can be done to get rid of unwanted mobile software without arduous work. It's not limited to Android devices, but it seems that increasingly Android more than other platforms is shipping with the worst mobile bloatware. It's a bad trend that's going to lead to consumer backlash and it's destroying the credibility of Google's Android vision.
Entelligence: A tale of two TVs
Entelligence is a column by technology strategist and author Michael Gartenberg, a man whose desire for a delicious cup of coffee and a quality New York bagel is dwarfed only by his passion for tech. In these articles, he'll explore where our industry is and where it's going -- on both micro and macro levels -- with the unique wit and insight only he can provide. This week at what's become Apple's fall music event the company unveiled a revised Apple TV. The small $99 device delivers a new rental model and support for Netflix, but there are no apps, contrary to much of the speculation leading up the event. That's in stark contrast to the Google TV project announced at I/O last spring. Unlike Apple, Google is looking to provide DVR functionality, search, and an app marketplace. Some say Apple isn't being bold enough, but I think Apple might be right. Google wants input one on your TV. Apple wants input two. The difference? Input one is where your cable box goes. Input two was where your VCR or DVD player used to live. It's a port that's up for grabs.
Entelligence: when less beats Moore
Entelligence is a column by technology strategist and author Michael Gartenberg, a man whose desire for a delicious cup of coffee and a quality New York bagel is dwarfed only by his passion for tech. In these articles, he'll explore where our industry is and where it's going -- on both micro and macro levels -- with the unique wit and insight only he can provide. We are all familiar with Moore's law. The observation made by Intel co-founder Gordon Moore that the density of semiconductors doubles roughly every eighteen months. The net result? It's always going to be better faster and cheaper. Certainly that's been true of the phone space, with large screens, fast processors and lots of storage. In the last few weeks alone I've looked at new phones with 1Ghz processors, the latest and greatest software platforms from Google and RIM... but it's been one little gadget that's caught my attention and it totally bucks the trend. What device? It's the Sony Ericsson Xperia X10 Mini Pro -- which is a lot of name for a small phone -- and it shows some very different thinking about what a smartphone is. In theory, this isn't a phone that I should like. Instead of a large 4.3-inch screen, it's running a 2.55-inch screen at 240 x 320 resolution. Don't look for a 1Ghz processor here. It's got an ARMv6 revision 5 processor at 600Mhz. Finally, forget Froyo or even Eclair. This thing's got Android 1.6 on it and may never get updated to the latest and greatest. Despite all that, I think Sony Ericsson has a potential hit on their hands if they decide to bring this to the US later this year as they said they plan to. Why am I so enamored?
Entelligence: One device to rule them all -- or not
Entelligence is a column by technology strategist and author Michael Gartenberg, a man whose desire for a delicious cup of coffee and a quality New York bagel is dwarfed only by his passion for tech. In these articles, he'll explore where our industry is and where it's going -- on both micro and macro levels -- with the unique wit and insight only he can provide. The introduction of the third generation Kindle has reignites the debate over the role of dedicated vs. converged devices. Five years ago, device segmentation was easy: phones made calls, music players played music and cameras took pictures. Even two years ago, integrated devices remained differentiated from standalone devices that provided greater features and capabilities. But some now feel the market for dedicated e-book readers like the Kindle and Nook will soon disappear, subsumed by devices like tablets and smartphones capable of delivering e-books along with other content, applications and services. It certainly feels to some degree that converged functionality is replacing the standalone and dedicated device. Look at the state-of-the-art iPod touch today and the state-of-the-art iPod of just three years ago. Compare the camera on your phone to the point and shoot digital of just four years ago. The argument seems strong for converged rather than dedicated and standalone devices. I think the reality is a little more complicated.
Entelligence: Conspiracy theory, part one
Entelligence is a column by technology strategist and author Michael Gartenberg, a man whose desire for a delicious cup of coffee and a quality New York bagel is dwarfed only by his passion for tech. In these articles, he'll explore where our industry is and where it's going -- on both micro and macro levels -- with the unique wit and insight only he can provide. We've all heard the great conspiracy theories of our time. President Kennedy was killed by more than one gunman. The moon landing was hoax, a drama secretly recorded on a stage set somewhere in Atlanta or Texas. More recently, the attacks on the World Trade Center were really perpetrated by the US, not Islamic terrorists. There are far more, I assure you. What's funny is that in the last few years, our industry has spun off a number of conspiracy theories worthy of being made into a movie. Apple, Microsoft, RIM, HP, Palm -- you name it, and there's a story being told. Of course, with most of these stories it's never direct from the source. It's people, who know of people, who knew someone, who heard from a friend that... something happened. As with all good tales, there's always someone who will believe. Oliver Stone, are you listening? Here are my five favorite tech conspiracies.
Entelligence: Let's get digital
Entelligence is a column by technology strategist and author Michael Gartenberg, a man whose desire for a delicious cup of coffee and a quality New York bagel is dwarfed only by his passion for tech. In these articles, he'll explore where our industry is and where it's going -- on both micro and macro levels -- with the unique wit and insight only he can provide. One of the more recent trends in UI design has been the attempt to make the digital appear analog. It arguably started with the NeXT OS, which had photorealistic icons and used clever grayscale techniques to give three-dimensional depth to windows, scroll bars and other elements. Today, Apple's iPhone compass app looks like it might be more at home on an 18th-century clipper ship, and the voice recorder app looks at home in a recording studio somewhere around 1950 -- tap on the "microphone" and the VU meter will react much as it would in real life. Google's added subtle 3D effects to Android's app scrolling. I haven't thought that much about this trend until I recently spent some time using Windows Phone 7. It's perhaps a minor issue but one of the things I like about WP7 is that it's not a digital UI pretending to be analog. The user interface is flat. There are no photorealistic depictions of real world items, no shading, and no 3D effects. Everything is conveyed through the use of fonts, shapes and color. It's digital and it's proud. Overall, I like it, and the more I use it, the more I prefer it. Returning to a more digital approach means Microsoft was able to rethink the nature of applications and services and create the concept of hubs, where like functions meet similar functions without the need for separate applications. It takes some getting used to, but the more I use it, the more natural it feels.
Entelligence: 3D TV falls flat for me
Entelligence is a column by technology strategist and author Michael Gartenberg, a man whose desire for a delicious cup of coffee and a quality New York bagel is dwarfed only by his passion for tech. In these articles, he'll explore where our industry is and where it's going -- on both micro and macro levels -- with the unique wit and insight only he can provide. It's generally a bad idea to extrapolate larger consumer behavior from personal experience and say "if I like it, surely everyone else will as well." It's a mistake that happens all the time, but there's is one case where I will use my personal behavior to at least start the foundation for analysis -- when I don't want a new gadget or technology. Granted, sometimes I'm just not the target audience, but even then I'm usually able to remove myself from the process and say it might not be for me but others will love this. In the case of 3D TV, however, I think my lack of interest doesn't bode well for the market. I'm surprised by figures, forecasts, predictions and prophecies all showing a rosy outlook for 3D TV beginning as early as this year, because I've seen most of the 3D offerings available and I have no plans to buy -- not now and not anytime soon. I should be a part of the core demographic for 3D: I like TV, movies and video games. I'm am early adopter. I have reasonable disposable income. I'm not afraid of betting on the wrong standard. And yet, I'm not buying. Here's why.
Entelligence: Five gadgets that could have and should have done better
Entelligence is a column by technology strategist and author Michael Gartenberg, a man whose desire for a delicious cup of coffee and a quality New York bagel is dwarfed only by his passion for tech. In these articles, he'll explore where our industry is and where it's going -- on both micro and macro levels -- with the unique wit and insight only he can provide. For every VHS, it seems there's also a Betamax -- a gadgets or standard that just didn't live up to the expectations of the mass market at the time. Despite being loved by niche audiences, these folks just didn't have what it took to make it to the big time. Here I celebrate some of my favorite gadgets and technologies that just couldn't catch on with the populace at large.
Entelligence: Time for Microsoft to once again embrace and extend
Entelligence is a column by technology strategist and author Michael Gartenberg, a man whose desire for a delicious cup of coffee and a quality New York bagel is dwarfed only by his passion for tech. In these articles, he'll explore where our industry is and where it's going -- on both micro and macro levels -- with the unique wit and insight only he can provide. A core part of Microsoft's strategy from days gone by was known as embrace and extend. With a reboot of their mobile platform due later this year, is it time for Microsoft to think about moving some of their services and applications to competitor's platforms? To some degree, it's already happening. Microsoft licenses the ActiveSync protocol which allows Android, iOS and other platforms to wirelessly sync with Exchange. It's developed Bing and Live Messenger apps for iOS and also done a deal to bring mobile Office apps to Nokia's platforms. One could argue that in some of these cases Microsoft has given competitors access to what could have been key differentiators for its own mobile efforts. I'm not sure I disagree with that analysis, but now that it's happening, I think Microsoft should think even more broadly about porting some applications and services. Here's what I'd like to see made available for other platforms. Office Mobile: Sure, there are other solutions for viewing and editing Office documents on almost every platform, but none of them carry the Microsoft Office brand. A version of Office for mobile (including a touch-enabled version of OneNote) would be an instant best seller on every platform and a become the de facto standard for mobile office applications. A combination of free document viewers and a suite of applications at a reasonable cost would put Microsoft at the top of mobile productivity and at the same time help continue to drive Office sales for PCs and Macs.
Entelligence: The evolution of the TV
Entelligence is a column by technology strategist and author Michael Gartenberg, a man whose desire for a delicious cup of coffee and a quality New York bagel is dwarfed only by his passion for tech. In these articles, he'll explore where our industry is and where it's going -- on both micro and macro levels -- with the unique wit and insight only he can provide. > In a world of connected screens, the venerable TV continues to wait in isolation while the personal computer and the cell phone have become ubiquitously connected. Sure, there have been experiments in interactive TV -- gadgets like WebTV and modern game consoles are connected devices, and set-top boxes like the Roku and TiVo add connected components -- but most TVs in the US remain blissfully ignorant of the internet. There's arguably more TV content viewed on PCs than there is web content consumed on TVs. Here's why the TV remains disconnected and how that might change. First, the PC and TV don't get along well. It's been a match that's been tried for more than a decade. It would seem like a no brainer: take a device with great connectivity and pair it with the TV. In the 90s Gateway introduced a line of Destination PCs that were designed for living room use, Microsoft later built some of the best TV and PC integration with their Media Center efforts, and even Apple has added a ten foot user experience to Mac OS with its Front Row UI. None of these efforts ever went mainstream. Why? Simple: PCs are designed for smaller screens, mice and keyboards, and TVs aren't. No matter what shell you layer on top, you're still stuck with a PC OS underneath that's not optimized for the TV experience.
Entelligence: App stores are not enough
Entelligence is a column by technology strategist and author Michael Gartenberg, a man whose desire for a delicious cup of coffee and a quality New York bagel is dwarfed only by his passion for tech. In these articles, he'll explore where our industry is and where it's going -- on both micro and macro levels -- with the unique wit and insight only he can provide. A little over two years ago, Apple changed the face of mobile computing when it launched the App Store and broke down the barriers between app developers and end users. There was no longer a need for users to go to a third-party web site, hand over a credit card, download an app to their computer, and sync it to their device. The App Store's integration with iTunes made it easy for the consumer to purchase apps, and purchase apps they did. But while Apple now commands a major lead in the sheer number of apps for the iOS platform, it's far from game over in the mobile market, and other competitors can catch up. But it's going to take more than just an app store for other platforms to level the playing field -- that's just the table stakes now. Here's what mobile platform providers need to compete effectively. First, the devices must stand on their own. Before Apple introduced the iPhone OS SDK, the developer program and the App Store, the company sold more than a million iPhones and iPod touches. That is, it had captured a large enough market for developers to notice before third-party apps were brought into the equation. Handset vendors and platform providers must have devices that are compelling to consumers out of the box, with features and form factors that attract buyers independently. Seeding a market with quality devices is one way to capture the attention of developers who will all want to be part of a platform with room to grow.
Entelligence: The aftermath of E3
Entelligence is a column by technology strategist and author Michael Gartenberg, a man whose desire for a delicious cup of coffee and a quality New York bagel is dwarfed only by his passion for tech. In these articles, he'll explore where our industry is and where it's going -- on both micro and macro levels -- with the unique wit and insight only he can provide. Last week's E3 show was pretty wild. All the major players upped their game quite a bit -- pun intended. Here's my breakdown of the show. Microsoft: The folks in Redmond led the way with an intro launch party featuring a custom performance from Cirque de Soleil. That was just to warm things up -- when it came to actual announcements, Microsoft took a two-tiered approach. On one hand it's building on the success of long established titles like Gears of War, Fable and of course, Halo. On the other it's taking the time to re-boot the Xbox 360 with Kinect, which brings controller-free gaming to the platform, as well as adding voice and gesture controls. I think Kinect is a major leap forward in the gaming experience that will appeal to both mainstream and casual gamers. With a streamlined new Xbox 360 and an impressive set of launch titles debuting alongside, Kinect is more akin to a console launch than a peripheral. Overall, I'd say Microsoft is in the lead post-E3 and very well positioned for holiday.
Entelligence: Wired or tired?
Entelligence is a column by technology strategist and author Michael Gartenberg, a man whose desire for a delicious cup of coffee and a quality New York bagel is dwarfed only by his passion for tech. In these articles, he'll explore where our industry is and where it's going -- on both micro and macro levels -- with the unique wit and insight only he can provide. In the mid 90s, a friend of mine was involved in a project to recreate magazines like Time on CD-ROM for the multimedia PCs of the era. The results were pretty cool, but the CD-ROM versions of the publications hardly replaced their print counterparts. Content has since moved from optical disk to the web, and now the allure of tablet devices has created a market for specific newspaper and magazine apps -- the number one paid app for iPad is a digital version of Wired, which sold about 1,000 copies an hour the first day it was launched. While it's a much better effort than some of the other efforts, more than anything Wired for iPad shows the weaknesses of media apps and demonstrates how the tablet remains a still-imperfect medium to deliver this type of content. Wired's efforts, like the CD-ROM efforts of the past, by has some cool features. A video clip of Toy Story 3 graces the cover and there are various interactive features, but more than anything else, it feels like a scanned in copy of the paper mag. Although navigation is better than most iPad magazines, it's still never clear when a screen should be scrolled down or just swiped horizontally.
Entelligence: Market caps and dunce caps
Entelligence is a column by technology strategist and author Michael Gartenberg, a man whose desire for a delicious cup of coffee and a quality New York bagel is dwarfed only by his passion for tech. In these articles, he'll explore where our industry is and where it's going -- on both micro and macro levels -- with the unique wit and insight only he can provide. The buzzword of last week was "market cap." To those unfamiliar, market cap is the total value of outstanding shares of a company, and on May 26th at around 3PM Eastern, Apple's market value reached $225.1 billion, surpassing Microsoft's $222.3 billion. Apple isn't the largest technology company around, but it's become the most valuable, and it's valuation is second only to Exxon in the US. Later that same week, Microsoft announced that Robbie Bach and J Allard, the head of its Entertainment and Devices group and the division's CTO, were both leaving the company. There's been speculation that these two events were somehow intertwined, but I don't think that's the case. In addition, as good as Robbie and J are, there's more to the E & D team than two people -- as grandpa used to say, the cemeteries are full of people who couldn't be replaced. Historically, Microsoft has always been two companies, the parts that made lots of money (Windows, Office, Server) and the parts that don't make money yet but might someday soon. E & D is the latest incarnation of the latter. Let's take a closer look.
Entelligence: Hello WebTV part II
Entelligence is a column by technology strategist and author Michael Gartenberg, a man whose desire for a delicious cup of coffee and a quality New York bagel is dwarfed only by his passion for tech. In these articles, he'll explore where our industry is and where it's going -- on both micro and macro levels -- with the unique wit and insight only he can provide. In a world of connected screens it's sometimes hard to classify what's what. I mean, what's a PC? We call smartphones "phones," but the reality is they're tiny PCs that go in our pocket. Similarly, the TV has undergone an evolution as well, and now Google is attempting to bring the PC and TV even closer together with the introduction of Google TV. What is it? Well there are three core elements: Android 2.2, the Chrome browser and the Android app marketplace. It's ambitious, but I'm skeptical. I feel like I've heard a lot of this before -- and in fact, I have. By no small coincidence, Android is headed by Andy Rubin, the man who was in charge of a product called WebTV before it was sold to Microsoft. And just as with WebTV, there's a lot of potential in the ideas behind GoogleTV, but I'm not sure Google has nailed it.
Entelligence: Is Android fragmented or is this the new rate of innovation?
Entelligence is a column by technology strategist and author Michael Gartenberg, a man whose desire for a delicious cup of coffee and a quality New York bagel is dwarfed only by his passion for tech. In these articles, he'll explore where our industry is and where it's going -- on both micro and macro levels -- with the unique wit and insight only he can provide. A few weeks ago I sat down with the father of Android, Andy Rubin. Andy's a super smart person, having done stints at Apple, General Magic, WebTV and Danger before starting the Android project. We talked about a lot of things, and we particularly spent time discussing Android fragmentation. I've written in the past about my concern that the Android platform is fragmenting much like desktop Linux has over the years, and the potential for the platform to turn into a patchwork of devices and vendor specific modifications that bear little relationship with each other. I've spent a lot of time thinking about my conversation with Andy, and I've rewritten this column more than a few times as a result. Today, there are at least five different versions of Android on the market. Many of them are highly customized to allow for new features and device differentiation, but that same customization also makes it harder for vendors to update them to the latest versions. New releases and versions of Android are often outdated by newer versions in the span of just a few weeks. For example, the Nexus One when released was capable of running apps like Google Earth that devices such as the Droid could not, because it ran Android 2.0, not 2.1.Tablet vendors complain their Android offerings lack features such as Android Market because Google forbids them to install the marketplace app, forcing them to create proprietary alternatives. It would appear Android is indeed fragmenting -- but perhaps there are other forces at work. When I spoke with Andy, he pointed out there are several classical symptoms of platform fragmentation. First, older APIs no longer work and break in new releases. Second, multiple application marketplaces offer different applications that lack uniformity across platforms. Both of these are true when you look at desktop Linux. Neither are true of Android.
Entelligence: Thirty three screens and a cloud
Entelligence is a column by technology strategist and author Michael Gartenberg, a man whose desire for a delicious cup of coffee and a quality New York bagel is dwarfed only by his passion for tech. In these articles, he'll explore where our industry is and where it's going -- on both micro and macro levels -- with the unique wit and insight only he can provide. There are some devices that are universally loved or reviled -- I don't know anyone who doesn't think HTC EVO 4G is awesome, or anyone who doesn't think the WikiReader was awful. Then there are some that seem to be quite polarizing, and these are the ones that I'm usually most interested in -- just listen to Joshua Topolsky and me debate Kin on the Engadget Podcast, for example. The latest of these polarizing devices is the Sony Dash. The Dash is hard to categorize. It's a connected screen, based in part on the venerable Chumby. Nilay Patel was somewhat lukewarm about it. Ross Rubin likes it and the Wall Street Journal was somewhat ambivalent about it. Here's what I've learned from a few days living with one on my nightstand. 1. The vision is fundamentally correct. There's a lot that needs to improve about the Dash, both from a marketing and implementation perspective, but the core idea is sound. Microsoft likes to talk about "three screens and a cloud" and I agree with that vision -- my phone number is 408-3-SCREEN -- but it's really a statement about consumption, creation and communication. Count the number of PCs, TVs, phones, game devices, media players and navigation devices you have around the house and interact with -- it's more like 33 screens. The idea that there's going to be multiple connected screens that consumers interact with is real.
Entelligence: Meet H/Pre
Entelligence is a column by technology strategist and author Michael Gartenberg, a man whose desire for a delicious cup of coffee and a quality New York bagel is dwarfed only by his passion for tech. In these articles, he'll explore where our industry is and where it's going -- on both micro and macro levels -- with the unique wit and insight only he can provide. Adding even more drama to an pivotal and transformative year in tech, last week HP announced it will buy Palm for the nice round sum of 1.2 billion dollars -- a move that will position it as a major player in the crowded mobile market. HP is no stranger to mobility -- the iPaq was once a defining mobile product -- but over the years the company has been unable to replicate that success with similar efforts in as the dynamic shifted from PDAs to phones. Buying Palm is a quick way of getting back in the game. This deal underscores the velocity of mobile and how that speed is affecting long term winners and losers. Many had written off Palm's relevance in the market, which might have been a correct assessment if Palm had ended up elsewhere. But I think Palm found a good home. In addition to Todd Bradley, the former CEO of Palm who now leads HP's Personal Systems Group, there are many Palm alumni at HP. This means that there should be a relatively smooth transition and overall good cultural fit. That's important because time is of the essence -- the market won't wait around for HP to integrate Palm.
Entelligence: Technology is fashion and the new fashion is technology
Entelligence is a column by technology strategist and author Michael Gartenberg, a man whose desire for a delicious cup of coffee and a quality New York bagel is dwarfed only by his passion for tech. In these articles, he'll explore where our industry is and where it's going -- on both micro and macro levels -- with the unique wit and insight only he can provide. I've been a technology industry analyst for some time now, and I can tell you that the benchmark of a great analyst is the quality of the advice you give based on how well you're able to forecast trends. In my tenure, my team hasn't often been wrong. But let me share a secret -- here's one where we totally missed the ball. A vendor -- who shall remain nameless -- briefed us in the late 90s with the idea of creating a line of PCs targeted at a mass market audience, with a special focus on the female demographic. The idea was to build PCs in a range of and shapes and focus the marketing efforts through places like Cosmo instead of the usual PC magazines. We were asked to evaluate the plan, and without the slightest hesitation I responded that it was the dumbest idea I'd ever listened to -- period. (This is the tact that only an analyst can bring to the table.) I recall saying something to the effect of no user will ever buy a PC because it comes in five delicious flavors. The vendor forgot all about their plans and our analysis proved accurate -- until Steve Jobs and the iMac came along. If I had to put a stake in the ground that's when technology became fashionable.
