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Blu-ray outpacing DVD adoption, will never reach its penetration
We just love it when research firms compare the adoption of Blu-ray to DVD and this latest report from Futursource is no different. The long and the short of the study is that if you include the Playstation 3 and the PS2, Blu-ray adoption is ahead of DVD in its fourth year. The firm goes on to predict that Blu-ray will keep the lead -- especially if prices on the titles continue to drop -- but package media will not sustain the household penetration it enjoys today because of the recent introduction of digital downloads and other VOD options consumers have. This of course is music to our ears as we will sleep better at night knowing that we'll be able to choose to watch movies in the highest quality possible. Of course we can't wait for the day when we can get better, cheaper, easier access to content, but for now Blu-ray is a-ok in our book.[Via Blu-ray.com]
Analysts: Blu-ray to capture 50% of software market by 2012
According to consulting firm Futuresource (via Video Business), Blu-ray discs will account for 50 percent of the home entertainment market by 2012. That said, the firm lowered its expectations of Blu-ray sales for 2009 from 90 million to 75 million thanks to software attach rates on the PS3. It seems that PS3 owners tend to buy only one or two Blu-ray movies a year, while owners of dedicated Blu-ray players buy anywhere from five to eight.Furthermore, while the PS3 is currently the most popular Blu-ray player -- it accounts for 6 percent of high-def hardware, while dedicated players make up only 3 percent -- Futuresource expects the console will account for only 22 percent of all high definition equipment in 2012. Declining prices for dedicated machines -- the firm says that entry level players will cost $50 by 2012 -- will push them to 53 percent.Assuming these numbers ring true, maybe we'll be paying a little less for the "one to two" Blu-ray movies we supposedly buy every year.
Futuresource still predicting big things for Blu-ray
Always good for an optimistic Blu-ray outlook, analyst Futuresource this week continued to peg 2012 as the year Blu-ray breaks into the mainstream, while reducing its prediction of discs sold this year in the format from 95 to 75 million. The expectation is that within the next couple of years hardware could drop to as cheap as $50 for an "entry-level" Blu-ray player, with dedicated set-top box owners snapping up high definition discs at a much quicker rate than the currently PS3-dominated (6% to 3%) audience. Check Video Business for the full recap, but just in case you hadn't heard, rumors of Blu-ray's impending demise are greatly exaggerated.
Futuresource predicts 100 million Blu-ray Discs sales in 2009
Futuresource Consulting has produced some rather controversial predictions before, so it's not at all surprising to find that it was this firm that forecast a whopping 100 million Blu-ray Disc would be sold in 2009. As we wait for BD sales to exceed DVDs in 2012, we're told that consumers are on pace to purchase in excess of 100 million Blu-ray Discs across the US, Western Europe and Japan this year. Mai Hoang, Senior Market Analyst, even concluded that in America, BD has moved from "early adopter phase through to early majority," noting that in the US last year, BD video retail sales increased some 320 percent to 24 million units. Couple that with rampant growth in the UK, and that 100m figure seems just a wee bit more believable. Of course, it's not like these guys really have any accountability in any of this, but at least these conjectures will lead to some pretty fiery discussions, right? [Warning: PDF read link][Via Joystiq]
100+ million Blu-ray discs predicted to be sold in 2009
Is Blu-ray ready to hit the mainstream? According to Futuresource Consulting (via GI.biz), it appears so. The increasing number of HDTV owners, coupled with lower prices on Blu-ray players, should fuel interest in the HD movie format. "In the USA, Blu-ray has moved from early adopter phase through to early majority, with the format gaining real traction in the marketplace," said Mai Hoang, senior market analyst at Futuresource. According to Hoang, Blu-ray sales in America reached 24 million units in 2008. The analyst predicts the American market will eat 80 million discs this year. The rest will be represented by Japan, the UK and the rest of Europe.Jim Bottoms, managing director at Futuresource, thinks Blu-ray adoption will finally get majority share of home video sales in just a few more years. "By 2012, around 50 per cent of US and 35 per cent of Western European video disc retail sale volumes will be Blu-ray."
Analyst: Sony might launch $40 downloadable games line
Futuresource Consulting's senior market analyst Mai Hoang has some interesting predictions regarding Sony's future digital distribution plans. According to the analyst (via Video Business), Sony is considering rolling out $40 downloadable versions of its regular $60 disc-based software. It's a strategy that Sony has already experimented with using SOCOM: Confrontation, and it's a tactic that has been fully-implemented for first-party PSP titles in Japan. Futuresource reckons Sony wants to get a bigger slice of the digital format industry, as total revenues for digital distribution gaming are projected to reach $2.3 billion by the end of this year -- and $5.4 billion by 2012. Hopefully, if Sony does plan on standardizing concurrent digital and disc releases, it'll do a better job on quality control for such titles. Here's looking at you, SOCOM.
Futuresource predicts physical media market will remain flat until 2012
As we've seen, Blu-ray does seem to be growing its slice of the packaged media pie, but research firm Futuresource doesn't expect that pie to grow. Instead, Futuresource predicts that growth in the home entertainment arena will come on the backs of, you guessed it -- mobile and online distribution -- while increased Blu-ray revenue will just offset DVD's fade. The usual suspects of Blu-ray's marginal quality benefits and pricing disparity are offered up as reasons that Blu-ray won't increase packaged media consumption overall, but we think there might be something else to the chart. The slow overall growth of media consumption shows we're becoming saturated by existing content delivery (physical discs, online, mobile, VOD, DVRs); or we're seeing the death throes of physical media and the slow initial growth of its successor(s) -- what's your take?
BDA gives European update: Blu-ray lookin' good across the pond
Despite the general lameness of the economy at large, Blu-ray seems to be faring at least decently well overseas. We already heard that Blu-ray Disc sales were up 396% in the UK year-to-date, and we're getting even more positive vibes from a BDA European Promotions Group seminar held in Amsterdam this month. According to Frank Simonis, chairman of the aforesaid group, [Blu-ray] is "experiencing strong and solid growth in every national territory [in Europe]," even with the economic situation taken into consideration. Also in attendance was FutureSource Consulting's Jim Bottoms, who boldly predicted that "in Europe, by 2012, about one-quarter of homes will have a standalone Blu-ray Disc player." 'Course, that's just wild speculation at this point, but at least we've a target to look back on and see just how accurate this fellow was / wasn't. [Warning: PDF read link]
Research sez economic troubles will increase at-home entertainment sales
We hate to point out the obvious, but new "research" from Futuresource over in the UK is bringing to light the fact that many will opt for at-home entertainment versus going out on the town or perishing from boredom during this economic quandary we're currently working through. Amazing, right? According to Sarah Carroll, Director of Strategy & Continuous Services at the aforementioned firm, she reckons that individuals will go out and "purchase hot new electronics items like Blu-ray players, flat-panel TVs or smartphones" rather than dining by candlelight or going on vacation. In somewhat more interesting news, the report projects that the growth of Blu-ray in Europe's top five markets will "more than triple" between 2008 and 2009, reaching in excess of 1.8 million players shipped (Sony's PS3 notwithstanding) next year. As always, only time will tell.[Image courtesy of AT&T]
Study finds that one-third of consumers copy DVDs
'Round these parts, we prefer to read the fine print first, so it should be noted that none other than Macrovision -- you know, the firm that purchased the now-cracked BD+ DRM scheme for $45 million last year -- financed this here study. According to poll results from US and UK consumers, around 1 in 3 individuals admitted to "making copies of pre-recorded DVDs in the past 6 months, up over a quarter from the previous year's study." Predictably, males aged 18 to 24 were most likely to wear an eye patch and own a DVD burner (if you catch our drift), and while revenue loss due to illegal copying is certainly a valid concern, researchers did find that 62% of American respondents (and 49% in the UK) were duping flicks they already owned. Arrr![Image courtesy of George Dillon]
