KatyHuberty
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Morgan Stanley: iPad mini cannibalization "overblown"
A survey of over 1,000 U.S. consumers was published today by Morgan Stanley and AlphaWise, showing that although sales of the iPad mini are cannibalizing sales of some of the full-size iPads, concerns over the trend are "overblown." That was the opinion of Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty, who said that the numbers show that Apple's risk over cannibalization by the mini is "manageable." The numbers she's referring to indicate that 47 percent of iPad mini purchasers are new to Apple, which is slightly less than the 56 percent number for the full-size iPad. There were other positive signs for Apple; the survey showed that about the same percentage of potential buyers -- 50 percent -- plan on purchasing an iPad over other tablets as they did in December 2011. The news isn't as rosy for Amazon's Kindle Fire, which saw a 5 percent drop in respondents planning a purchase. Microsoft's new Surface tablet is apparently interesting to 12 percent of the respondents, while Samsung's tablets showed a 7 percent rise in purchase intentions over December 2011. Google's Nexus tablet also showed a solid rise of 6 percent, while all other tablets saw a huge drop in interest from 24 percent last year to only 5 percent in 2012.
iPad suppliers forecast shipments of 8 - 10 million for calendar year 2010
Analyst Katy Huberty at Morgan Stanley has published a research note forecasting shipments of 8 - 10 million iPads during calendar year 2010. That's significantly more than previous estimates, which showed shipments of about 5 million devices. The note, as reported in a WSJ All Things Digital post, still maintains a sales estimate of greater than 6 million iPads for the year, since shipments are not necessarily equal to sales (some production remains in distribution channels at year-end). Huberty notes that investors who are bearish on the iPad say that it lacks a "killer app." She counters with speculation that the near-term target is for the sub-$800 notebook computer market, which currently appears to be in the range of 30 million units in the United States and 120 million units globally. In the long run, media (video, magazines, books) and apps that have been optimized for the iPad will significantly increase the market size. For the short term (through May, 2010), suppliers are expecting to ship 2.5 million iPads. This is up sharply from Huberty's initial estimate of 750,000 units through the end of June. Earlier this month, analysts were reporting that delays in early iPad production would limit the quantities available at launch. Huberty has not been particularly bullish on Apple in the past several years, but has recently been citing Apple's leadership in the mobile device space and talking about "bull case scenarios" for Apple's future.
