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Is WoW hitting a plateau?
Seems like a silly question with the imminent release of their second expansion just within our grasp, but over at Dailygame.net, they've speculated a bit on when that plateau might finally hit World of Warcraft. According to this article, based on information from MMOGchart.com and warcraftrealms.com, the rise in WoW's subscription numbers has traditionally peaked around the holiday seasons and expansion releases. This should come as no surprise to anyone, but it also points out that we're not seeing as gradual an increase in subscriptions throughout each peak season. The last sentence of the article sums it all up fairly well: "If at the end of 2009 WoW's total subscription numbers are less than 10 percent higher than they were when 2009 started, I will submit that WoW will have officially entered its plateau phase. But even if that transpires, and if after four to five years WoW has declined and leveled-off into a steady state of a mere three or four million worldwide subscribers, it will still be a cash cow." One of Azeroth's millions of citizens? Check out our ongoing coverage of the World of Warcraft, and be sure to touch base with our sister site WoW Insider for all your Lich King needs!
BlizzCon ticket drawing winners to be selected soon
Zarhym posted on the BlizzCon forum that the opt-in period to get into the drawing for BlizzCon tickets is now over. Blizzard will be randomly selecting winners over the next few days. Account holders who get selected by the drawing will receive an email from Blizzard explaining how to purchase up to two BlizzCon 2008 tickets if they so desire -- so make sure your contact information is updated!So now the forums are all abuzz as to what are the odds of winning the drawing. Let's do the math, shall we? There are 3,000 tickets available and they'll be offered by pairs to each drawing winner. We can assume there will be no more than 3,000 winning accounts (if every winner buys only one ticket -- unlikely) and no fewer than 1,500 (if every winner buys the max allowed: a pair). According to MMOGChart.com, Blizzard has about 10,000,000 subscribers right now. Okay, now, stay with me... Originally, 12,000 tickets were sold to BlizzCon. Let's assume that all the tickets purchased so far went to subscribers, rather than people who wouldn't show up on the subscription rolls. Let's also assume that each subscriber bought one to two tickets in the first batch. That means 6,000 - 12,000 accounts already have tickets, leaving 994,000 to 988,000 folks left for the opt-in drawing. With my mad Excel skills, it looks like if everyone who didn't get BlizzCon tickets the first time around opted in to the drawing, you've got a 0.015% to 0.030% chance to get one of those sweet emails in the next few days. Since it's unrealistic to assume that everyone opted in, I'd say you have a better chance than that. However, keep in mind that in order for you to even have a 1% chance of winning the drawing, only about 150,000 accounts would have had to opt-in. No matter how you slice it, good luck!
MMO statistics show WoW wins
We've pointed to MMOGChart before, but the site's latest update is worth commenting on. With subscriber numbers for all major MMOs through to May 2006, there's one game that stands head and shoulders above the rest -- no prizes for guessing which.In fact, the pie chart above shows that over half (50.6%) of all MMO subscriptions are for World of Warcraft. The growth of WoW has been phenomenal, and it's great to be part of its popularity. However, we all know that WoW isn't without its problems, and it's going to be hard for a challenger to come along and threaten WoW's dominance.[Via Joystiq]
WoW dominates MMO market share
If you were in doubt about World of Warcraft's popularity amongst MMOs, the updated subscriber numbers over at MMOGChart will set you straight. The pie chart above shows the market share, as of May 2006, of subscription-based MMOs; the huge blue slice taking up 50.6% of the market is none other than Blizzard's behemoth.While a number of smaller games have some slice of the pie, the MMO world is dominated by Lineage, World of Warcraft and Runescape -- the latter has been racking up subscribers recently.
MMO subscriber charts show what's hot
Bruce Sterling Woodcock of MMOGChart has been tracking the subscriber numbers for a variety of different MMOs for years; version 19.0 of his data was released about a week ago, providing numbers up to January 2006 in a long-awaited update. The chart's coverage isn't perfect; geographic information would be especially useful, but is near impossible to find, and the site explains the accuracy behind the data (there are differences between active subscribers, cumulative subscribers and boxes sold). However, it's interesting to see what this snapshot of the current MMO world is like.The graph above shows the largest MMOs, those with over 120,000 subscribers. The green line leaping towards infinity is World of Warcraft -- the yellow and red curves, declining slowly, are Lineage and Lineage II respectively. Many of the others stop in 2005, so it's hard to get an accurate up-to-date picture, but the light blue line representing Runescape seems to be finally taking off, cresting the 500,000 barrier -- an impressive feat for a game started by a couple of students.
