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Analyst says no one is buying MMOs after SWTOR fizzled
Wedbush Securities analyst Michael Pachter has a dim view of MMO assets following the lukewarm performance of Star Wars: The Old Republic. "Nobody is buying MMOs after Star Wars fizzled," Pachter told Joystiq. The context surrounding the statement involves the valuation of 38 Studios in the wake of its Copernicus melt-down. "There is just no demand for game assets right now, as THQ proved when it tried to sell the Warhammer MMO. I think [Electronic Arts] could step in, since they are the publisher, so you might see some alternative way to get 38 some bridge financing," Pachter said.
Pachter expects 360 price cut at E3, PS3 and Wii to follow suit
Gaming industry analyst Michael Pachter has updated his predictions about the console price cuts he anticipates will occur this year. A Wedbush Securities update distributed this morning said, "We expect Microsoft to announce a price cut at this year's E3 Expo in June, and expect Sony and Nintendo to rapidly follow suit." Until then, Pachter expects that consoles sales will steadily decline, with the 3DS providing enough juice to bring things back into the positives in April. The report predicts that Microsoft will likely capitalize on the success of Kinect by dropping the price of its core Xbox 360 bundle to "under $300," adding "we are confident that by holiday 2011, all three consoles will be at least $50 cheaper than they are today." Why, with that kind of money, we could almost buy a new fuel cell for our spaceyacht's hyperdrive! Oh, right -- the report also predicts the invention of spaceyachts. We meant to mention that earlier.
Pachter: Xbox 360 outsold PS3 two-to-one in December; Nintendo reveals numbers
Wedbush Securities games industry analyst Michael Pachter's magic crystal ball predicts another month of Xbox 360 dominance in the NPD charts. His latest report to IndustryGamers says to expect sales of Microsoft's console to be more than double that of its biggest competitor, the PS3, for December. Prognosticating that the Xbox 360 sold 2.5 million units last month, he's betting on a 91 percent boost in sales over November for Microsoft. As for the PS3, Pachter figures it sold 1.2 million units in December, a 12 percent dip compared to its performance in November. As for actual real numbers, Nintendo boss Satoru Iwata revealed in an interview with Nikkei (via Andriasang) that the Wii sold over two million units in December. The DS reportedly performed on par with the same period in 2009, which would be somewhere around three million units.
Pachter: 254K Wiis sold in September, 312K PS3s
With the NPD deeming the unwashed masses unfit to receive hardware sales data, we've been forced to procure the company's data through other means. Microsoft executive Aaron Greenberg made it easy yesterday, announcing the Xbox 360 sold 483,989 units in September, which is up 37 percent from the same time last year. Meanwhile, the other console makers were to be a bit shy -- and now we know why. Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter revealed in his investor note today, sourcing NPD's data, that the Wii and PS3 sold 254K and 312K units, respectively. That's a 45 percent drop from the same time last year for Nintendo and a 37 percent hit for Sony. Pachter notes it's hard to ding the PS3 in a sales comparisons to last year, as it was flying high after receiving a major boost from that $100 price drop. However, for the Wii, he says the console continues to struggle due to "gamer fatigue" and "lack of high-profile releases."
Pachter: NBA Elite 11 delay to cost EA 1.1 million sales this year; NBA Jam no savior
In a recent investor communique, Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter noted his belief that Electronic Arts would lose 1.1 million sales due to NBA Elite 11's delay and reduced the company's holiday quarter earnings estimate by $60 million. Also, because the sports sim will miss the beginning of basketball season with its 2011 release, he predicts that by the end of the company's fiscal year next March, Elite 11 will have only sold around 500,000 units -- if it doesn't succumb to the "possibility of being canceled." Pachter's note briefly mentions the standalone versions of NBA Jam as "not a true substitute," so we followed up with the analyst extraordinaire to find out why he believes EA's other NBA game can't make up the difference. "The standalone versions on PS3 and 360 might sell well, but I question whether they will be priced as $60 games, when the company had previously said it was giving them away with NBA Elite." He continued, "More likely, they'll be discounted to $50 or lower, and gamers will still balk at the price, given that it was going to be bundled with NBA Elite -- and likely will be, if the latter game ever comes out. So I'd say another 200,000 units, maybe." As for the Wii version, he explained that the game was coming out anyway for the console, so the lack of NBA Elite may give it a "very small" bump of 100,000 units.
Pachter: First Activision-Bungie game 'well along' in development, will sell at least 10 million units
Though firm details about the terms of the Activision-Bungie partnership are still awfully slim, industry analyst extraordinaire Michael Pachter has given his two cents to Gamasutra about the financial potential of the merger, which should result in Activision earning a great deal more than two cents. First, Pachter suggests this is a publishing partnership instead of a mere distribution agreement, which will increase Activision's profit margins from around 10 percent to anywhere between 15 and 20 percent on all of Bungie's titles. He estimates that, should the developer's future titles be as popular as its Halo franchise (which typically sold 10 million units a piece), they could sell as many as 15 million units by virtue of Bungie's new multiplatform ambitions. According to his calculations, Activision stands to make $65 million off the first successful Bungie title should it match the success of the Halo series. The time to test Pachter's calculations might be closer than you'd think -- he reports that the first Bungivision product, which is set in an "action game universe," is "well along in its development." We're not sure how "well along" said title actually is, but we'll keep our ears perked up for an announcement at E3. An announcement for Guitar Halo. There, we said it, alright? We were all thinking it, and now it's out there.
Michael Pachter gets his own show, unbuttons his shirt
We frequently see the words produced by gaming industry superanalyst Michael Pachter -- however, a new piece of programming on GameTrailers gives us the rare opportunity to hear them straight from the man himself. Yes, a new video segment titled "Pach-Attack" gives the technoprophet his own soapbox from which he can voice his opinions and say his sooths, all presented in crystal-clear HD video. We've embedded the inaugural episode of Pach-Attack after the jump. If you happen to check it out, you'll need to keep reminding yourself that the casually-buttoned gentleman you're viewing isn't actually Don Johnson.
Pachter: Netflix on Wii won't matter as much as on other consoles
Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter doesn't think the announcement of Netflix streaming on Wii is that big of a deal in growing the rental service's customer base. Pachter's perspective is that "fewer than 20 percent" of the US's 26 million Wii owners are connected to the internet, which is a necessary component to stream movies through the service. In comparison, he believes over 75 percent of Xbox 360 and PS3 users are caught up in the internets. IndustryGamers reports that Pachter expects "some traction" from the Wii announcement, but that it won't "jump start Netflix activations." He believes the Nintendo console's installed base will "embrace the Netflix service only gradually." With so many consumer electronics receiving the Netflix streaming service, Pachter does believe it'll "allow Netflix to maintain its prior pace of subscriber additions as new customer additions from the Xbox 360 installed base begin to slow."
Pachter predicts another Xbox 360 price cut in 2010
If you read the first installment in the latest installment of "Pachter Predixx," you already know that the analyst's new report praises the PS3 for its resilience during these troubled times. According to the report, the PS3 saw an 85-percent year-over-year sales increase in November, while the Wii and Xbox 360 suffered sales declines. This reversal in fortune leads Pachter and his Wedbush associates to a surprising conclusion: "We think that the PS3 will again outsell the Xbox 360 in November and December, prompting a price cut some time early next year." Pachter adds that while Microsoft "has the ability to lower price yet again," it probably won't do so until "it begins to lose significant market share to Sony." As with all conjecture -- even when delivered by professional conjecture conjurers -- we suggest considering Pachter's educated guess as just that: a guess.
Pachter: Modern Warfare 2 sold 6m units in Nov.; PS3 hardware sales skyrocketed
Though the November NPD sales report won't be released until later this week, gaming industry analyst (and possible soothsayer) Michael Pachter has predicted November's biggest players in the gaming hardware and software markets. Unsurprisingly, Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 is the highlighted title in his report -- not only does the report claim the game sold around 6 million units last month in the U.S. (for about $350 million), it credits the game with pulling the industry out of a downward spiral that it's followed for seven of the past eight months. The report also awards a large gold-star sticker to the PlayStation 3, which is predicted to have sold 700,000 units in November, an 85-percent year-over-year sales increase. Despite the two upswings, Pachter's report ends on a decidedly dour note, stating, "as 2009 draws to an end, it is clear that it will end as a horrible year for video game publishers." Pachter suggests that sales will drop off once more in December. Happy holidays, gaming industry professionals!
Pachter: Project Natal will cost $50, 'Sphere' no more than $100 [update]
Over at IndustryGamers, everyone's favorite video game predicterer (we're still working on that one) Michael Pachter has taken the reigns of the site and offers his own extensive diatribe on the future of Sony and Microsoft's upcoming new tech: Project Natal and the PlayStation Motion Controller (rumored to be called Sphere). Pachter's assertion is that price will be Natal's biggest selling point and Microsoft will try to expand upon its market of established Xbox 360 owners by offering the device for $50. For Sony's doodad, Pachter says the company is "trying to create an answer to the success of the Wii." Pachter even likens the future state of a Natal-enabled Xbox 360 to the current state of the iPhone -- with features like Twitter, Netflix, Last.fm and Facebook inside Microsoft's box and its intuitive interface, he says casual or non-playing members of Xbox 360 households will become interested. And then when it's bundled with all new Xbox 360s, he says that'll expand Microsoft's reach even more.For the motion-controlled competition, Pachter says he'd be surprised if Sony's asking price was over $100, and stresses that both Microsoft and Sony need to keep "the consumer's cost relatively low in order to achieve broad penetration."[Update: Corrected Pachter's belief that the motion controller would be no more than $100. We sincerely apologize for the misinterpretation and the consequent misinformation.]
The internets present: Michael Pachter FACTS
Joystiq admittedly went a little crazy with stories involving Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter recently. But, how can the internet blame us? The man is such an important figure. Not only to the video game industry, but to the current state of humanity. Inspired by Harmonix's Alex Navarro, the facts of Michael Pachter's importance were spoken across the Twitterverse and compiled by one Jared Newman. A small sampling: When Michael Pachter gets the Red Ring of Death, he sends Microsoft a coffin. Publications often misrepresent Michael Pachter as a "Wedbush Morgan Analyst." No company can contain Michael Pachter. Michael Pachter willed the Dreamcast to its destruction. No one can cast dreams except Michael Pachter. There is a little-known seventh ESRB rating: P. It stands for Pachter. P-rated games can only be played by the awesome. Michael Pachter has learned to suppress the pon farr. He's that logical. We hope these facts help clarify his importance. Those looking to learn more can always search Twitter for #pachterfacts. Some facts show a lack of refinement, created by jealous heathens, but many will bestow the importance of this one man. If you know more facts, please feel free to add them below. Inspiration will get you kudos, crassness will get you a one way ticket off Joys- Pachstiq.
Pachter: Nintendo is benefiting from global recession side effects
Normally when Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter whips out his crystal ball and starts getting the vapors, he doesn't have time to turn on his minirecorder and take down the futurespeak channeled through his body. Luckily for us (and you!), he not only recorded it this time, but also wrote it down in the form of the 2009 Interactive Industry Report! We delved through the beast of a document this afternoon and found an interesting segment regarding the Nintendo Wii relying on "slower adoption rates of current generation technology" (read as: high-def displays) to help boost sales.Pachter writes on page nine of the report, "The global recession served to benefit Nintendo at its competitors' expense," referencing Microsoft and Sony as having slower console sales this generation due to HDTV functionality built into the systems. He argues that consumers who might purchase the Xbox 360 or PlayStation 3 are more likely to buy the Wii not only because of the lower price point, but because of the subsequent HDTV purchase price. "Expect most consumers to defer purchasing a PS3 or an Xbox 360 until they have purchased an HD monitor," Pachter explains. Though we're not convinced that the same folks who would be purchasing an Xbox 360 or a PS3 would be running out to buy a Nintendo Wii in every case, we digress. What say you, Joystiq Biomass?
Pachter: Mobile games are a fad, EA's emphasis on sector 'misplaced'
Some people in the video game industry predict the mobile games business could eventually grow to topple the handheld gaming market, Wedbush Morgan disagrees. In its July industry report, analyst Michael Pachter estimates the mobile games industry is currently closer to $2 billion and, even with expected growth, the market may only expand to $4-6 billion in the next three to five years. In a section titled "Mobile Phone Games are a Fad," Pachter explains that, while 1 billion iPhone applications have been downloaded across 31 million Apple products sold, "it is not evident that more than 20% of these downloads are games." Suggesting the iTunes App Store has generated "under $400 million in game downloads" in its first year. Pachter does predict the mobile game industry will grow at 25% per year for a few years, but will eventually fall as competing devices enter the market. The report also calls Electronic Arts' emphasis on mobile games "misplaced." EA Mobile has grown steadily over the last few years, but the report estimates the mobile games division is -- along with that of competitors Gameloft and GLU Mobile -- "barely profitable." According to the report, finger pointing in Apple's camp should directed toward the "open forum" structure of the store and Apple's business model. Apple runs the game download service for an estimated 30% fee, leaving 70% to the game's publisher, the report claims. The section on mobile games goes on to conclude that handheld systems, like the new PSP Go, will "maintain its niche, without significant cannibalization" from the mobile games industry.
Top brands of 2008 owned by Nintendo, EA, Activision, and not Sony
Wedbush Morgan Securities' 2009 industry report includes a list of the top thirty brands of 2008. The report notes that of the companies whose brands appear on the list, Nintendo, EA, and Activision were the only three with more than one brand to generate over $100 million at retail in the US last year.And boy, did they. The top brand of the year, Guitar Hero -- perhaps you've heard of it -- was responsible for $992 million in US sales in 2008. The next two brands, Mario Bros. and Rock Band, generated $761 million and $662 million, respectively.One company is notably absent from the top brands list: "Most strikingly," the report reads, "Sony had no top 30 brands for the third year in a row." Microsoft had two brands on the list (Gears of War and Fable) and Nintendo had four (Mario Bros., Wii Fit, Wii Play, and Pokémon). See the list of brands after the break.
Pachter: PS2 software sales to become 'almost irrelevant' in 2009
Despite the fact that the PS2 saw a sizable price cut just three months ago, Michael Pachter is claiming that the system is nearing the point of complete insignificance. In Wedbush's "2009 Interactive Industry Report," Pachter explains that he expects "PS2 software sales to decline sufficiently (around 64%) to be almost irrelevant to overall software sales growth, with PS2 software comprising less than 4% of overall software sales in 2009."Sony's probably not ready to give up on its most cost-efficient console, but as history has proven, nothing gold can stay in the fast-paced, constantly evolving world of video gaming hardware.
Pachter: WiiHD still coming, Xbox in third by 2015
Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter is no stranger to the gaming scene. In fact, it's his job to guesstimate, speculate, and estiguess on all things gaming, and in his latest report (via IndustryGamers), he paints the future for all three console manufacturers. First up is Nintendo, a company that Pachter believes will remain in the top spot throughout this console generation. Due to the Wii's "low price point, innovative control mechanism, and compatibility with standard definition televisions." Pachter thinks that Nintendo will rest easy atop the gaming mountain. And he thinks the Wii HD is a big part of it, as Pachter firmly believes Nintendo will introduce a HD-compatible Wii at some point, even as early as next year.Then there's Sony and its PS3. Pointing to Sony's win in the Blu-ray vs HD DVD war, Pachter says the PS3 will capture "significant market share" through this alone, and says the company will take second place. Regardless, Pachter sees the PS3 and Xbox 360 sharing very similar market share at the conclusion of this generation.Moving on to Microsoft, Pachter believes the company will end this generation in third, largely due to the console's inability to sell in Japan. Pachter downplays the "losing" angle, however, stating that he believes Microsoft will sell twice as many Xbox 360s as the company did the original Xbox, which, granted it actually happens, would be a nice feather in Microsoft's cap.
Pachter: Wii price drop coming before the holiday
Michael Pachter loves low prices. First he does flip floppings around the PSP Go's price and now he's predicting a Wii price drop later this year. He notes that "Wii supply has finally exceeded demand," and that he "expect[s] Nintendo to cut the price of the Wii before [the] holiday." If true, this would be the first price drop since the Wii's release in late 2006.Alternatively, Nintendo could simply bundle the system with software in order to persuade people to buy the system. Wii Sports was a good enough selling point back in ought-six, so why not a Wii, Wii Sports Resort and Wii MotionPlus bundle? Still, Pachter's pretty well known around these parts, so he's bound to be right. Who knows, maybe the price drop will arrive just in time for the Wii HD announcement, right Michael?
Pachter apologizes for comments about PSP Go's rip-off price
Michael Pachter has stated he "sincerely" regrets commenting that Sony is ripping off consumers with the PSP Go's $250 price point. In an interview with IndustryGamers, Pachter takes the opportunity at the end to say that he doesn't believe Sony is doing anything nefarious and has "the right to price its products at a point that they think is competitive." He states the company is pricing the handheld to be competitive with the iPod Touch and that the PSP Go "arguably has much more value than the Apple product."Hmm, as much as we respect Present Pachter's opinion, Past Pachter was a little more on the ball with the consumer's perspective of the PSP Go's pricing. Past Pachter noted, "The $169 PSP-3000 is a profitable device -- the disc assembly, for a UMD, costs more than 16 gigs of flash does. So this new device doesn't cost them as much as the PSP-3000 and they jack the price up $80?" It seems Past Pachter was viewing the product through consumer eyes, while Present Pachter is in business mode and wearing the glasses of the Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter.%Gallery-64545%
Take-Two takes $100 million in 'convertible senior notes,' we poke Pachter to explain
Take-Two announced today it intends to offer $100 million of "convertible senior notes" due in 2014. We have not a clue what that means, so we contacted Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter, who not only is a master of prognostication, but apparently knows quite a fair share about business (for real!). Pachter explains: Convertible - "Means that the debt can be repaid with stock at the borrower's option." Senior -- "Means that it stands in line ahead of all other debt in the case of bankruptcy -- not likely, but it makes the interest rate lower." Note -- "Is debt." Pachter explains it appears to him that the company is borrowing for a five year term in order to repay its line of credit, which has a high interest rate. That leaves the line of credit available to take if Take-Two ever needs "cash in the future for operations or acquisitions."Thanks, Michael! [Image]
