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Ming-Chi Kuo and The Legend of the $3,000 iWatch
Along with the iPhone predictions I covered yesterday from KGI Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo -- who, despite being wrong about new Apple products many times, is described by various outlets as "spot on" and "pretty reliable" -- we were graced with a supposed bit of insider info on Apple's still mythical iWatch. Along with Kuo's theory that there will be two different sizes of the wearable, the analyst makes a downright shocking claim that Apple's watch will be priced as high as "several thousand US dollars." As usual, this sketchy claim was treated as all but confirmation that Tim Cook is indeed poised to drop a wrist-worn device as expensive as a used car on the world, and the headlines flowed forth. "Here's how much the iWatch will cost," "The most accurate Apple analyst in the world is predicting iWatches will cost several thousand dollars," and "Apple's iWatch could cost over $1,000" are just a few choice examples, but there are plenty more. Perhaps I wake up on a different frequency than the rest of humanity, but I would sooner believe that Apple is planning to purchase a national coffee chain than give any credit to a rumor that the company's unannounced wearable is priced as high as the Mac Pro. Do you know who would buy a $3,000 iWatch? Nobody. Ok, that's probably not true; I imagine there are a half dozen executives growing tired of their Rolexes, but that's never been Apple's market. Apple makes premium products, and the iPad, iPhone, and Mac are often pricier than the competition, but they're priced to be desirable. Apple isn't in the business of cheap products, and they're also not going to try to compete with Louis Vuitton. Kuo adds a little bit of flavor to the iWatch rumors by adding that the device itself will have a "fashionable appearance" and "we predict the iWatch casing and band will come in various materials." Talk about painting with broad strokes. By adding obscure, meaningless details like this, Kuo's overall iWatch prediction list looks a little bit better, even after we discover that the most critical bullet point -- the price -- was a total miss. So if and when the iWatch is announced, and we all discover it's priced in the ballpark of Apple's other mobile gadgets, will this be counted as a massive error by Kuo? Of course not. The world will brush it off and the next time the analyst comes calling with a wild guess, he will still be described as "almost always correct." [Details & high-res version of movie poster available here]
MMO Mechanics: Procedural generation is the future
MMOs are infamous for the exorbitant amount of both time and money that is required to make a fantastic end product. Much of this effort and expenditure goes into producing very specific content such as leveling zones, quest chains, and dungeons. The classic themepark MMO in which all the rides are carefully engineered and maintained is compelling for a time, but the content therein tends to take longer to create than it does to exhaust. This invariably leads to redundant content that ends up on the scrapheap once it has been enjoyed for a time. Procedural generation corrects much of this redundancy by providing essentially limitless variations of content, adding replayability and variety to the usual MMO repertoire. It also opens up some unique mechanics, like Elite: Dangerous' planned procedurally generated galaxy that is a full-scale replica of the Milky Way. In this week's MMO Mechanics, I will look at how the genre is evolving because of how accessible procedural generation techniques have become to developers. I'll also explore how this might affect the future of MMOs by examining the mechanics that upcoming titles will incorporate.
Denver Broncos picked to win Super Bowl XLVIII in Madden 25 simulation
EA Sports ran a simulation of the Super Bowl XLVIII match-up this coming Sunday between the Denver Broncos and the Seattle Seahawks using Madden NFL 25 and wound up predicting a Broncos victory with a score of 31-28. The simulation had Denver toppling Seattle in dramatic fashion: Seahawks running back Marshawn Lynch brought the team to within two points on a last-second 27-yard touchdown run before the team successfully scored two more on the two-point conversion attempt to take the game to overtime. The sim then showed Seattle stalling out in the first possession of overtime before Broncos kicker Matt Prater booted the game-winning field goal. Broncos quarterback (and noted Papa John's pizza spokesman) Peyton Manning earned the Super Bowl MVP award thanks to his 322-yard, three touchdown performance in the simulation. EA's Super Bowl simulations have a decent track record, as the publisher has successfully named the Super Bowl winners in eight out of the last ten years by using the latest roster files in the current Madden game. If that's not a testament to the work of Madden Ratings Czar Donny Moore, then we're not sure what is. Head past the break to see the list of EA Sports' Super Bowl predictions in recent years and each game's actual outcome.
Hyperspace Beacon: Star Wars: The Old Republic predictions for 2014
Knowing my luck, when I finish writing this, the marketing team for Star Wars: The Old Republic will release a huge announcement about 2014 that no one saw coming. And it wouldn't be hard for BioWare to release something unknown to the community at large because it's said next to zero about what we should expect for 2014. Normally, BioWare promotes the upcoming features to death. We knew about the Cathar coming at least a year before they actually hit the live servers. Players and fans (and enemies) of SWTOR have speculated wildly as to why the developers have remained silent on the subject, my favorite being that BioWare has run out of content to produce, which kind of reneges on the 10-year plan it touted before launch. Whether or not BioWare has new content in the works, we do know a few things that will be coming, and we also have some super-secret things we can speculate on thanks to some intrepid SWTOR fans. So let's talk about what we do know, what we don't know, and what we think will happen.
Talkcast tonight, 10pm ET/7pm PT: Prediction Edition!
New dial-in experience! Set up Fuze Meeting before the show if you want to join in live. Another Sunday, another TUAW talkcast! We're still breaking in 2014, and we'll do so discussing our predictions for the remainder of 2014. Kelly is hosting tonight; you may recall she runs a home for all manner of crazy theory, and wouldn't miss this for the world. Reminder on new-style talkcasting: With some help from the fine folks at Fuze, we're using a new system to record the show. This should let everyone listen in live -- and, if you want, raise your hand as you would in the Talkshoe room to get unmuted and chime in. You can join the call in progress (meeting # is 20099010) at 10 pm ET from any computer via this link; if you download the Mac or Windows Fuze clients ahead of time, you'll get better audio and a slicker experience, but browser-only will work fine. Just click the phone icon to join the audio once you're in. Using an iPhone or iPad? Grab the native clients from the App Store and get busy. (Even Android users can join the party.) Still feel like using the conventional phone dial-in? Just call 775-996-3562 and enter the meeting number 20099010, then press #. While the Fuze web and native clients have a chat channel, we'd like to reserve that for host participants, requests to talk and other real-time alerts... so the full-on chat for the show will appear in a second Talkcast post at 10 pm tonight. You'll need Twitter, Facebook or Chatroll credentials to participate in the chat. We'll remind everyone to check back in at that time.
Tamriel Infinium: The Elder Scrolls Online predictions for 2014
Normally, in an article like this I would attempt to predict when a given game will actually launch, but ZeniMax has already told us that The Elder Scrolls Online will release on April 4th, 2014. I guess the next question is whether I believe that it will actually launch on that date. I do because it's far too perfect from a marketing standpoint, and if history tells us anything, ZeniMax is not afraid to launch a buggy title. However, the June release date for the console version of the game might be a bit more flexible. It's possible that it will take two to three months to convert the game from the PC/Mac version to the console version, but I think it's more likely that the PC/Mac launch will serve as a testing ground for the console release. If the PC/Mac launch works out well, then we will certainly see an early June launch for consoles, but if there are issues, don't be surprised when that release date shifts to July. Still, I do think that July would be a hard stop; anything later would likely cost ZeniMax far too much money. I enjoy making predictions. I'm not always right, but that doesn't mean it's not fun giving it a shot. Just remember, my predictions are my personal opinions reflective of information released by ZeniMax regarding ESO. I do not have super-sight nor a dev in my pocket, so your guess could be as good as mine. In fact, after I make my predictions, I'd like to read yours in the comments.
The Think Tank: Massively's 2014 MMO predictions
The end of the year is our time to not only reflect on the last 12 months but also look forward to what's to come. Since some of the more anticipated MMOs like Elder Scrolls Online and Wildstar have missed their anticipated 2013 launches, we now have that to look forward to in 2014. But what else? Follow along after the jump for the Massively staff's 2014 predictions, and for an added laugh, take a look back at our 2013 predictions to see how close (or far off) we were.
The case of the next Warchief
Patch 5.3 is a-coming, and the Siege of Orgrimmar is drawing nearer and nearer every day. One question that I know is on everyone's mind is, who will be the next warchief? We know Garrosh is getting deposed - we don't yet know if he's going to die - and someone will have to take his place. So who should it be? The obvious choice is one of the racial leaders, though exactly which one is up for debate. I thought it would be fun to analyze some of the potential candidates and tease out what might make them a reasonable choice of warchief both inside and outside the story. Let's start with some of the easily dismissible, for brevity's sake. This post contains some minor spoilers for patch 5.3, so be warned!
Ask Massively: Counting the hits
At the end of December, the Massively staff laid out its predictions for 2013 in a tidy post, after which a reader named flatline4400 graciously complimented our wild conjecture: I think Bree and Patrick are right on in a number of points. (Bree also did very well in last year's predictions too!) We are pretty awesome, aren't we? Well, except for the part where I also predicted City of Heroes 2. Soooooo maybe not so awesome after all. In today's Ask Massively, let's take a peek back at our staff predictions from last year, the ones we made in 2011 for 2012. And let's count the hits and the misses. Did we get as much right as we got wrong? Come on -- it'll be fun(ny).
Flameseeker Chronicles: Hopes for the new year in Guild Wars 2
It's the dawn of a brave new year. Guild Wars 2 is still in its infancy, really -- ArenaNet's work in this year will do a lot to shape the future and lasting impact of the game. With apparently an expansion's worth of content coming out in January and February, this certainly promises to be an exciting year. I don't know whether the following things are predictions or hopes, but they can't be all that much more inaccurate than fondling sheep guts.
Hyperspace Beacon: What does the future hold for SWTOR?
I really want Star Wars: The Old Republic to succeed in 2013. On the whole, I believe it's carved out its own niche in the MMO genre. Granted, it's not the niche EA or the developers had hoped for, but I believe it to be solid and stable at this point. Without offering a lot of new content, the current servers have had consistently high populations since the game converted to its free-to-play model. We are also witnessing a new group of fans come to the game, fans who appear to be a little less jaded about the years of pre-launch hype. This week, I want to spend a bit of time discussing the different aspects of SWTOR and give my predictions for the future. The developers of the game like to say that combat, exploration, progression, and story are the four MMO pillars. But as the game has grown over the last year, I have found that the true four pillars are story, PvE, PvP, and social interaction. With each update to the game, these seem to be the biggest focal points of development as well as the four areas the community seems the most divided over.
Hyperspace Beacon: A 2012 SWTOR reflection
To say that this year has been interesting for Star Wars: The Old Republic would be a major understatement. I think it's safe to say that in the course of this year this game has gone from being one of the most loved games to one of the most hated. Maybe I just like rooting for the underdog, but I still love the game. (There are other reasons, of course.) Love the game or hate it, 2012 has been a wild ride for the game and this column. As this is the last Hyperspace Beacon of the year year, I'd like to take a moment to reflect on some of the past opinions and predictions I held, then test them against my current stance or the truth behind what happened. Before I get into the meat of this column, I want to make mention of an event. The Imperials of The Ebon Hawk server are holding a gala in the name of Darth Nox, commemorating the one-year anniversary of her ascension to the Dark Council. Players are invited to come ready to roleplay and participate in in-character games. Nox will conduct a scavenger hunt, items will be up for raffle and auction, and every participant should walk away with something. If you were looking for an opportunity to get into roleplay or just have some fun, be sure to visit the market area of Dromund Kaas (instance 1, coordinates: 20, 200) at 6:00 p.m. EST on Saturday, January 5th, 2013.
Woz predicts that in 2013, iOS devices are headed to work
Apple's co-founder Steve Wozniak often appears here on the pages of TUAW for doing some silly things like joking around with Stephen Colbert or starring in an iOS game. But the man's still got a great mind (and a lot of experience with technology), so when he makes some predictions for 2013 over in Forbes, it's worth giving him a listen. Woz's main theme seems to be business technology -- specifically how that field is trending more and more away from standard beige box desktop PCs and much more towards personal smartphones, tablets and other such devices. Woz says that the cloud will continue to be a big trend next year, and that will extend to businesses using smartphones and tablets more and more in the workplace. Finally the software and hardware on mobile devices is catching up to the growing need businesspeople have to make good use of the powerful computers they carry in their pockets. Businesses have already seen a "BYOD" (bring your own device) trend in the workplace, where employees are increasingly using their personally owned iPads and iPhones for work. Woz says that will continue, as businesses will have to balance issues like security and productivity with the comprehensive customization and portability that smartphone and tablet devices offer. That's some good insight right there, and Woz should know: the guy carries like 10 different smartphones. We've already seen businesses making good use of iOS devices, and it makes sense that 2013 would bring that trend even more into the forefront. [via Slashdot]
iPhone projected to gain market share over next 4 years, but remain in 2nd place
A lot of things can change in just a year in the world of mobile communications, so predicting where the major smartphone platforms will be four years down the road is tricky. Nevertheless, BGR reports that the International Data Corporation has made its official predictions for how smartphone ownership trends will look in 2016, and surprisingly there isn't a whole lot of change. According to the firm's data, the current smartphone market share looks like this: Android: 68.3% iOS: 18.8% BlackBerry: 4.7% Windows Phone 2.6% Linux: 2.0% Other: 3.6% In 2016, the company believes the spread will look like this: Android: 63.8% iOS: 19.1% Windows Phone 11.4% BlackBerry: 4.1% Linux: 1.5% Other: 0.1% As you can see, Android is projected to remain at the front of the pack, though it loses a bit of ground. iOS looks to remain in second place, picking up just a bit more of the market along the way. IDC expects Windows Phone will overtake BlackBerry and move into third place, while Linux and other options fall further behind. These aren't exactly bold predictions, but the firm does note that if Apple decides to offer a lower-priced new model into the marketplace, things could change. It looks like we'll only have to wait four years to see if the predictions pan out.
Theory of cliodynamics uses science to predict history, sees violence erupt in cycles
Ever get the feeling that you've seen it all before? University of Connecticut researcher Peter Turchin has, and he (along with Russian partners Sergey Nefedov and Andrey Korotayev) has even crafted an entire scientific theory around the idea. Cliodynamics, as it's called, works on the view that broad trends of history occur in predictable patterns based on common factors like government strength, population size and social inequality. The surprise to Turchin is that violence outside of wars, at least in the US, triggers roughly every 50 years like clockwork: people rebel against a social crisis, but their children stay out of the fray and lead to the conditions that ultimately trigger another outbreak, like the 1970s civil rights and peace movements. Don't set your watch to cliodynamics just yet. Many historians are still skeptical, and even supporters note that one-off events or major wars fall through the cracks. If the theory pans out, however, science could be used to help governments do the right thing before they're made to do it at gunpoint. [Image credit: Steve Wilson, Flickr]
Breakfast Topic: Doomsday predictions
WoW Doomsday predictions -- they're happening in the comments of The Queue, in the official forums, actually everywhere that people can comment relevantly about World of Warcraft. It's the end of WoW because of pandas. WoW is dead because of the Black Market Auction House. The WoWpocalypse is near because Blizzard is catering to the casuals. I know that subscription numbers must be a little down right now. Many people suspended their accounts in order to play Diablo III. Many others canceled until they see how Mists of Pandaria turns out. I don't know what the magic number of subscribers is for Blizzard to make a profit from its MMO, but my guess is that it's much less than the 10.2 million reported last month. Most MMOs would be happy with a third of that number. Despite what the very loud doomsayers predict, millions of people are enjoying Azeroth and are happily paying the subscription fee to do so. As Ben at the Asylum Wall pointed out, the entertainment dollar per hour value is low. Of course, you still need to be having fun playing, or any amount of money will be too much to pay. Are you still subscribing? If not, why not? Do you think the end of World of Warcraft is nigh? Why? Even if you think WoW will be around for many years more, what do you think would bring about its demise?
Guild Wars 2 could launch before Thanksgiving, release date announcement 'imminent'
Yes, Guild Wars 2 fans, we know that ArenaNet can't put the game out quickly enough. Believe us, we know. Thankfully, some new information uncovered through a bit of detective work on behalf of Gamebreaker's Jason Winter indicates that we may not have to wait too much longer. Financial reports issued by Korean Development Bank's securities firm, which is one of the largest brokerage firms in Korea, have included a number of documents involving the much-hyped title, in which predictions are made for a Guild Wars 2 release date in Q3/Q4 2012 (likely before Thanksgiving) and an "imminent" release date announcement. Keep in mind that this isn't just some random guy on the internet; these predictions come from people who report on these things for one of the largest brokerage firms in Korea, which means a lot of money (and probably some jobs) are on the line. To get the full details straight from Winter himself, go check out the full video on Gamebreaker, but take it all with a grain of salt. As ArenaNet is fond of reminding us, nothing is official until Anet says it is, and the game will be out when it's ready.
The WWDC 2012 prediction post: Community edition
As we wait for Tim Cook to headline Monday's WWDC 2012 keynote, we're all getting excited about what's to come. We're dusting off the old crystal ball to see what WWDC will bring us this week. Here's what some of our TUAW bloggers predict for Monday. Plus, we want to invite you to join in as well. What are you most looking forward to on Monday? New tech, hardware, and software? Tell us what you expect to see and where you think our predictions have merit -- or are full of monkey wax. Jump into the comments and let us know your take on WWDC 2012. Predictions will be added by TUAW bloggers throughout the weekend, so revisit this post early and often! Steven Sande I'm predicting a surprisingly modest WWDC: iOS 6, a preview of Mountain Lion, and that's about it. Why do I think this to be true? Well, I think it's time for Apple to give devs some real lovin', and the words on the banner -- "Where great ideas go on to do great things" -- seem to be more focused on the act of development than on new hardware. Sure, it would be awesome to see a new iMac, new MacBook Airs, new Mac minis, a new Mac Pro, and maybe even some announcements of Apple-branded Thunderbolt peripherals. But my guess is that Tim Cook and Company are going to really focus on the software technologies that make Apple great. Erica Sadun The thing I most want to see on Monday -- and the thing I'm not really counting on -- is an Apple OS Roadmap, similar to the one that Steve Jobs offered in the October 2010 "Back to the Mac" event. During that presentation, Jobs announced Lion and the Mac App store and discussed how OS X would grow to take advantage of advances in technology innovated on the iOS side of the house. While I expect Tim Cook to introduce iOS 6 and demo Mountain Lion, which may enter its first "gold master" release at WWDC, I hope he will have the flexibility to discuss where the two operating systems are going next, and how much convergence we'll see over the next 3-5 years. I'd also like to hear about how supporting technologies like AirPlay, iCloud, and 802.11ac will bring the entire Apple line closer together over time. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw some hardware introduced as well, specifically brief mentions of a new MacBook Pro (feels like an Air, works like a Pro, docks to upgraded Cinema Displays). I suspect a lot of the Monday keynote will focus, however, on iOS 6 and Mountain Lion features. I'd really like to see some 10.8 surprises due to hardware refreshes and iOS 6 innovation for iCloud, reminders, and other key lifestyle support technologies. Megan Lavey-Heaton Like Erica and Steve, I think the keynote Monday will be focused on Mountain Lion and iOS 6. However, I do feel that new hardware will be introduced as a means to promote development. This is the Apple hardware's moment to shine outside of the iOS family, and I'd be disappointed if new systems weren't announced. We know Mountain Lion is coming. iOS6 is a given. The only blank is the hardware, and it's past time it had a refresh. Victor Agreda, Jr. I believe there will be enough amazing features in iOS 6 to continually raise the roof and the bar on Monday. From advancements in maps to upgrades to Siri, Apple will show why anyone considering the use of tiles on Windows Phone or whatever it is that makes Android compelling should consider switching or keeping iOS on their phone or tablet. Mountain Lion is less of a mystery, although I would expect the cloud efforts from Cupertino to be a key ingredient of the wow soup they are no doubt rehearsing at this moment. We've seen a lot of nice, new features, plus integration of iOS notions that will make life easier for the average user -- several of which Erica mentioned above. As for hardware... Isn't WWDC a software thing? It's possible we'll see the new MacBook Pros, or they could do it a week later (when "normal humans" continue their annual blissful ignorance of WWDC's purpose) so as not to distract. Further, the Pro may be due for a revision, but unless there are developer-specific niceties baked in, why not wait a bit later? It's not like we'll be so busy with the latest BlackBerry to notice. Chris Rawson Guaranteed: iOS 6 and Mountain Lion demoed. Likely: "iMaps," Apple's replacement for Google Maps. Maybe: Updates to at least one Mac model announced. Apple TV apps/SDK. Third-party access to Siri APIs. I'll believe it when I see it: Updates to all Mac models announced. Retina Displays on the MacBook Pro, iMac. Not a chance: iPhone, iPod touch, iPad hardware updates. "Are you inebriated?": iPad mini, Apple HDTV.
Nintendo expects to double 3DS sales by this time next year
Call it ambitious (if you're feeling nice), or potentially bananas (if you're feeling realistic), but no matter what you call it, Nintendo's clearly not joking around with its hardware sales forecast. The company let loose a variety of predictions for the current fiscal year (ending March 31, 2013) this week, which predicts movement of 18.5 million 3DS units into consumers' backpacks and purses worldwide.That's not a huge increase from the console's first fiscal year (April 1, 2011 through March 31, 2012), which saw 17.13 million 3DS units sold. And with big hitters like New Super Mario Bros. 2 and Animal Crossing on the way, it seems likely that Nintendo will surpass those numbers and get to "adjust" their forecast upwards come investor call time. "Ooops, we made way more money than we expected," Nintendo head Satoru Iwata might tell investors, with a coy smile. "Please forget about last year's major financial issues." At least that's how we picture these things going.
Expect Shinji Mikami's next game in 2013 or beyond
In December last year we predicted that Shinji Mikami's Zenimax-owned development studio, Tango, wouldn't produce any actual products within the next year -- on account of all the free Skyrim it received -- and it looks like we were right.Mikami told 4Gamer, as translated by Andriasang, that Tango would not launch any games in 2012, but leave itself a rather wide berth for producing something after 2013. The new, unannounced title uses an external engine, but it has been customized to the point that it is almost an internal one, Mikami said, leaving out any other specifics about the game. He did note that Skyrim "stimulated him as a creator," though.
