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Pachter, simExchange offer conflicting predictions of console sales
April NPD sales are expected this Thursday, and analysts are ready to offer their key bits of insight. As usual, we cast much doubt on the accuracy of these sales predictions, especially when two of the largest sources offer conflicting reports. Wedbush Morgan's Michael Pachter has once again predicted a victory for PS3 over Xbox 360 this month (he incorrectly predicted a PS3 victory last month as well). Pachter believes that PS3 will push 290k units, Xbox 360 275k, and the Wii will trounce on both with a whopping 600k. PS3 fans shouldn't rejoice too soon, however. simExchange, another group of analysts, predicts that Xbox 360 will sell 381k and PS3 will sell 363k. With such contradictory numbers being thrown around, one has to wonder how analysts make these numbers, and why they continue to be relevant. Thursday's revelations of official NPD numbers should see which analyst wins the guessing game.
Analyst flamethrower attack: PS3 to outsell 360 in March
Silly analysts, inciting flame wars with such trivial matters as a month of sales. Regardless, that's exactly what simExchange is doing -- claiming that in March, the PS3 will outsell the 360 in terms of sales. A first in the US for 2008, and only the second time in its lifespan. April will go to the 360 for sales, and so on, and so forth. Nintendo is assumed to keep a hefty lead on both, so there's no confusion.This back and forth bout between the two "hardcore" gaming consoles will continue, simExchange proposes, with shrinking gaps in sales between them until games with larger online components like Rainbow Six Vegas 2 Charlie Salt Lake City Alpha Dog Redux, Army of Two, and others get released because it's assumed that Xbox Live carries more weight with those games. Basically, sales of the consoles are based on software that play to each console's strength. We could've told you that from the start. Check, please!
Analyst predicts the Wii's bestsellers
In the most recent simExchange report, analyst Jesse Divnich had some interesting predictions about Wii software sales. According to Divinich, the top selling games will be as follows (including estimated worldwide sales for the software during the Wii's lifetime): Wii Play – 20 million Super Smash Bros. Brawl – 13.95 million Mario Kart – 13.16 million Super Mario Galaxy – 12.61 million Wii Fit – 8.73 million We're not surprised that Divinich would predict Wii Play to be the top selling piece of Wii software, since the game is constantly popping up in the top of the NPD and Japanese charts. Since two of the five predicted games aren't even out yet, and one of them is only out in Japan, it's hard to tell by trends if the rest are good choices. Still, taking our best "we're not paid analysts" guesses, we'd say that Wii Fit will have much higher sales than Divinich predicted. The game already sold one million copies in Japan, and it's only been out for a month. We do think that those are a solid top five, though, even if we don't agree on the order and total sales for all games.How about you? What are your best guesses for the Wii's top five?[Via Joystiq]
simExhange: Wii Play will be top selling 'software' during Wii's lifetime
Analyst Jesse Divnich of prediction market simExchange projects Wii Play will become the top selling piece of Nintendo Wii "software" over the console's lifetime. Divnich believes Wii Play will finish with approximately 20 million units sold, while Super Smash Bros Brawl grabs the number two spot with an expected 13.95 million units sold. Wii Play's classification as software has been the source of mental chafing considering its main selling point is the bundled Wiimote in the $50 "game" (making the the actual game $10 after the Wiimote's normal $40 price is deducted). Although the NPD numbers for December still aren't public, Divnich believes the Nintendo Wii sold 1.8 million units and the Nintendo DS broke a sales record with 2.9 million units sold -- currently the PS2 holds a December record of 2.6 million units sold during 2002. Divnich's piece of advice is that American publishers need to work outside the industry's status quo to get a hold of the "astonishing success" Nintendo is currently experiencing.
Analyst madness: Halo 3 selling three million fast and $399 PS3 at TGS
The analysts have all come popping up from their respective holes following yesterday's NPD numbers to say a couple of words before going back in and waiting by their fax machines for the next month. The message conveyed? August's much better than expected sales were far from the norm. simExchange analyst Jesse Divnich said that slowdown is typically expected before a major release like Halo 3 -- and that totally didn't happen. It seems this holiday season could be "spectacular, spectacular" even if GTA IV decided to miss the holiday party.As for the nitty gritty, Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter was very happy with the Mirror's predictions and trusted it yet again to forecast that Halo 3 will sell three million units in less than two weeks. It also suggested that Xbox 360 sales in Sept. will be over 400k. The simExchange said that Xbox will outsell PS3 2-to-1 in September, adding that Sony's system needs to be more compelling to consumers (another price drop wouldn't hurt, apparently). That's where Pachter jumps in again with rumors of a 40GB PS3 at $399 and a $99 PS2 being announced at the Tokyo Games Show next week.Other analysts chimed in too, err, chiming that the Wii third-party titles aren't selling well. Divnich said, "The market continues to imply that Wii consumers prefer Nintendo published titles for the Wii over third-party ports like Madden NFL 08 and Tiger Woods PGA Tour 08, even if the ported version includes functions that take advantage of the Wii's control system." We're not too sure yet if given the choice, consumers would take an alternate control scheme over the instant gratification of a familiar (and prettier) product.
5,000 shares of Super Smash Bros? Buy! Buy! Buy!
Have you ever wanted to go to a website where you can trade video games like stocks and bonds in an effort to get filthy rich (virtually)? We thought so. Well, now you can. The Sim Exchange is a site much like the Hollywood Stock Exchange where you can bank on the fact that a game will be a sleeper, a straight out hit, or a flop, and trade accordingly.What would really make this challenging would be if you could bid on if a game would hit its release date or not. Like Duke Nukem Forever. Right now Halo 3 is sitting atop the most valuable list, and Viva Pinata heads the most traded of all time. Strange, yet true.Sign up, compete against others, and then reflect on the fact that you're playing a game which is a simulation that uses games as the nuts and bolts of the matter. It's like a Russian nesting doll that never ends.
