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GameStop may seek exclusive content during a game's development
GameStop is contemplating taking a greater interest in games during their development in order to secure exclusive content. Colin Sebastian of investment firm R.W. Baird recently discussed GameStop's future with the retailer, then told investors in a note that GameStop "indicated that software publishers are more enthusiastic about partnering with it." For example, publishers may offer "exclusive content on each major game release," and in longer terms, "future models may include GameStop offering exclusive gameplay" for games. While GameStop already secures exclusive content for some major releases, this means the retailer may involve itself earlier in the development process than usual. As Sebastian clarified to GamesBeat, the retailer would be "getting involved at the time of game development where there could be some content exclusive to [the retailer] included in the game." GameStop spokesperson Jackie Smith also added that the company is working with development partners "to get both physical and digital exclusives for our customers." [Image: GameStop]
WoW looks to the future as Blizzard stocks surge
Blizzard might be weathering the sting of a 600,000 subscriber loss in World of Warcraft this quarter, but the studio's separation from Vivendi could be the salve to soothe the hurt. Following the news that Activision Blizzard is buying back shares to take away Vivendi's controlling stake, stocks have surged 18% in pre-market trading this morning. Baird Analyst Colin Sebastian says this is nothing but good news: "This looks like a win, win, win for Vivendi and Activision shareholders. It's a better outcome than a special dividend to Vivendi, and I expect Activision will function even better as an independent company without the overhang of a struggling parent." Blizzard is also taking steps to counter its subscriber drop. VentureBeat reports that the studio has increased its WoW development team, "lowered the barrier" for returning players to catch up to friends, and created an in-game proving ground so players can learn to heal or tank. We also have word that a new buff-centric class is being considered, although no specifics have been revealed.
Analyst claims that Star Wars: The Old Republic points to a healthy MMO market
The gaming industry is pretty morbid when you get right down to it. 2011 has seen several people predicting the death of the MMO market and the death of subscription games, often times in the same sentence. But according to analyst Colin Sebastian, the launch of Star Wars: The Old Republic makes it clear that these reports of death have been greatly exaggerated. As Sebastian puts it, the unprecedented growth of SWTOR's player figures indicates that the market still possesses a demand for new games and still responds favorably. Sebastian goes on to predict that the game will likely move around three million units by March 2012, the end of the fiscal year, although he believes that staying power is a bit more questionable. He believes that predictions of up to two million paying users by the end of 2012 might be overly optimistic. That having been said, the game has certainly come out of the gate with real strength; it only remains to be seen if it can maintain that.
Analyst: Angry Birds sets record for most downloads on PSN [update]
At this point, we're finding that these furious fowl may just be perpetually pissed off. What do they have to be so angry about? Angry Birds is doing very well on PSN, according to Lazard Capital Markets' Colin Sebastian (via Develop) -- he says it's set a record for downloads on the platform. Developer Rovio reported over 100 million downloads for the title as of last month, which includes free versions and, of course, the PSN port. As it stands, we haven't received any platform-specific figure, but we do know the game has been charting for months now. Update: We were contacted by a Sony spokesperson, who told us the Lazard Capital Markets report featured inaccurate information. "Angry Birds was the top paid downloaded PSN game in January 2011 and February 2011," we were told, not the most downloaded game of all time as the initial report claimed.
Analyst: Walmart could 'expand' used game market
According to a recent report from Lazard Capital Markets' Colin Sebastian, the firm's "industry checks" have revealed that Walmart has begun selling used games in over 500 of its stores. We decided to perform our own industry check, and the very first Walmart we called (in Tulsa, Oklahoma) was indeed stocking used games. The clerk we spoke to said that the store "just started carrying them." Further investigation revealed that used titles are also available on Walmart's website. The company revealed plans to begin a used game program earlier this year, and Sebastian believes Walmart will "focus on the deep-value end of the market (e.g., games under $20 ASP)," potentially preventing "overlap" with used game juggernaut GameStop. Cheaper, older games do seem to dominate Walmart's used inventory, although we did spot Rock Band 3 for $50. Assuming Walmart maintains this focus on cheaper games, Sebastian believes the program could "ultimately expand the market for used games." Sebastian notes that getting into the used game business isn't easy, requiring extensive inventory tracking, refurbishment and restocking. He concludes that it's unlikely for other used game distributors to be as "tightly integrated" as GameStop. We've certainly seen big names try and fail at the used game racket before ... Walmart included.
Analysts weigh in on Panasonic's Jungle
New tech does not always equal gimme gimme -- according to several prominent analysts, Panasonic is set to engage in quite the uphill battle with its new handheld, The Jungle. Both Bill Pidgeon of M2 Research and David Cole of DFC Intelligence told IndustryGamers they believe the unit is "a non-starter." Colin Sebastian of Lazard Capital Markets said it looks like "an uphill challenge to launch a new portable gaming device unless there is some meaningful differentiation or access to proprietary content," while EEDAR's Jesse Divnich offered that its success hinges on third-party support, saying that, "with any hardware platform regardless of its quality, the absence of strong third-party support will most certainly end in failure." All valid points, but should these guys be giving the device the benefit of the doubt? As it stands right now, we don't know much about the system other than what it aims to do: give MMO players a dedicated piece of hardware so they can take their games on the go. Given how popular MMOs are (and, in turn, how much of the cash money they generate), from a business standpoint it would seem win-win; nobody else is offering something to MMO players who may want a bit of portability. But, on the other hand, the problem is -- at least according to these analysts -- that the handheld doesn't particularly fill a void that can't be filled by a netbook or laptop.
Analysts sound off on 3DS price and release date announcement
Over the past 24 hours, select members of the gaming industry peanut gallery have sounded off on Nintendo's recently announced launch plans for the 3DS. Many in the investment community balked at the high price and later-than-expected launch window, including Lazard Capital Markets' Colin Sebastian, who worries "shipment quantities to the U.S. next spring might be more constrained than originally anticipated." MF Global FXA Securities' Jay Defibaugh explained that those two qualms, combined with the devices apparent lack of 3G support, made the announcement a "worst-case scenario." Though many analysts appear to share these concerns, EEDAR, which expects the handheld to come to the US in March 2011 at $249 to $299, disagrees. "The higher price point allows Nintendo to incorporate new features such as 3D movies, camera, and game support," EEDAR noted in a report received by Joystiq yesterday, later adding, "a 2010 Holiday launch would severely impact both the quantity and quality of titles that could be made available by November 2010." Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter predicts that the market will bear the relatively high price of the handheld, though he expects the cost to drop to $250 when it arrives in the U.S.. For more of Pachter's predictions for Nintendo's western 3DS launch plans, check out our interview with the outspoken analyst.
Analyst: Kinect sales could top 4 million in 2010
Industry analysts have already weighed in with their thoughts on Kinect's $150 price point -- now we're hearing from one of them on how well he thinks the gizmo will sell. The answer: really well, actually. Colin Sebastian of Lazard Capital has crunched numbers and deduced that Microsoft is manufacturing the motion sensor at a rate of two million per month, and believes that four million will be sold by 2011. That figure doesn't purely represent stand-alone sales, however. "The mix of Xbox 360 shipments for the holidays will be more heavily weighted toward the Kinect bundle," Sebastian believes, which is why he's upped his sales forecast from three million units in calendar Q4. Interestingly, the analyst points out that sales of PlayStation Move, which launches roughly six weeks earlier on September 19 and "without as much 'buzz' as Kinect," could offer a better picture of how Microsoft's motion control offering will perform after it makes its bow on November 4.
Analysts predict StarCraft 2 sales in 2010 to be out of this world
Video game industry analysts' ears perked up yesterday following the release of Blizzard's super anticipated RTS, StarCraft 2 -- sensing a need for the skills of their vocation, these analysts began firing off their predictions for how the game would sell through the end of the year. According to Gamespot, Signal Hill's Tom Greenwald suggests that "5-6 million units this year are highly achievable," while Lazard Capital Markets' Colin Sebastian predicts the game to sell 4.5 million units through September and 6.5 million units by the end of 2010. Speaking to USA Today, Morgan Wedbush guru Michael Pachter gave his prediction: five million copies within the next two to three months. Using our own comprehension of the gaming industry, as well as a few tricks we've picked up from The Price is Right, we've got our own predictions: Five million and one by October, six-and-a-half million and one by the end of the year. Oh, yeah. That spot on the Showcase Showdown is ours for sure.
Roundup: Analyst commentary on Kinect pricing
Everybody has an opinion at the moment about Kinect's $150 price tag, but let's hear what the analysts who get paid for their opinions think. We've got reactions from EEDAR's Jesse Divnich, Lazard's Colin Sebastian and Wedbush Morgan's Michael Pachter, after the break.
Analyst: 3DS will help Nintendo stave off iPhone
Lazard Capital Markets analyst Colin Sebastian has said in a new report that the Nintendo 3DS system will not only increase unit sales for the DS platform (obviously), it will satisfy demands of consumers now excited about 3D technology, and help differentiate Nintendo's offerings from iPhone software. He notes that cheap iPhone games are cutting into the DS business. "However," he suggests, "with a differentiated 3D display, high quality games, and profitable business model for publishers, we believe the 3DS could help reduce the competitive threat from smartphones." Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter, however, doesn't believe 3D on its own is enough -- because if that's all it is, Apple will simply copy it. "It seems that if 3D on portable devices was easy," he told CVG, "Apple would have beat them to it. If they truly pioneer a technology, my guess is that Apple will mimic the technology." That's a pretty pessimistic outlook. We're going to have to play a lot of Grand Theft Auto: Chinatown Wars on our touchscreen-based handheld game console to cheer ourselves up after reading that.
Analysts predict hardware, software drops in February NPD
In advance of NPD sales results for February 2010, analysts are predicting year-over-year declines for pretty much everything. Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter, according to Gamasutra, is predicting that hardware and software sales will decline 10 percent, with Wii hardware sales hit particularly hard (around 40 percent) due to shortages. Beyond the Wii, the continuing decline of the music genre is partly to blame for the reduced sales. Analyst Colin Sebastian is guessing at a 15 percent decline, despite encouraging early sales for games like Heavy Rain and preorders for games like Battlefield: Bad Company 2 (which, as an early March release, may fit into the NPD February sales period) and God of War III. The fact that high-profile games are likely to show sharp declines after strong first-week sales will prevent software trends from turning for the better.
DJ Hero sales 'modest,' analyst says; Activision refuses to comment
Lazard Capital Markets analyst Colin Sebastian told Gamasutra that, while the gaming industry is currently "stable," sales figures of Activision's critically-lauded DJ Hero look to be only "modest" in the US -- an understatement in the UK. Continuing the pricing trend of peripheral-based titles, DJ Hero retails for $120 for its standard edition and $200 for its premium, "Renegade" edition. According to Sebastian, consumers are "showing price sensitivity" toward games with price points greater than $100.In recent history, the trend of peripheral-based releases has fallen short of sales expectations. Internet-famous Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter -- along with others in the field of "professional guessing" -- recently halved holiday sales predictions for Guitar Hero 5 and The Beatles: Rock Band; after both fell short of initial sales predictions.According to Cowen Group analyst Doug Creutz, the falling projections of peripheral games reflect both the casual consumer's decision to reduce spending on games, as well as the possibility that gamers are losing interest in the played-out rhythm genre.When contacted by Joystiq, Activision refused to comment on the matter. With no less than three new rhythm titles on the horizon, we presume publishers hope the trend of sluggish peripheral-based game sales comes to a screeching halt; like the days of disco music and, apparently, outlining the objectives of major marketing campaigns.
GameStop details three-point plan for digital distro future
GameStop doesn't really have to worry about digital distribution devices like the PSP Go right now -- in the Go's case, it's because there's pretty much nothing on it -- but, in the future, the company may need to consider adapting to a less physical media-dependent market. Though some say that day won't come until 2017 (others say digital distribution will endanger the company), Lazard Capital Markets analyst Colin Sebastian recently attended an analyst-only GameStop meeting at the NYSE (via IndustryGamers) where the company actually detailed its plans to prepare for the rise of the machines digital distribution.GameStop's three main goals to adapt included increasing in-store sales of point cards for online purchases, expanding its digital distribution of PC and casual titles via its website and making a strategic investment in the space or acquiring an online entity specializing in digital distribution. The first two are pretty cut and dry, but that last item really gives one food for thought.There are certainly a plethora of online distributors that GameStop could own; Steam, Greenhouse, Impulse, GoG and Direct2Drive are all established and popular digital distribution services, though we think GameStop may have some trouble should it pursue Steam or Direct2Drive -- which are owned by Valve and IGN (News Corp.), respectively. And, hey, if GameStop decides to purchase any one of these and doesn't like it, there's always the option to trade it back in for ... ah, forget it.
2009 online game revenue could reach $11b
Analysts really do like to live up to their job titles, because Colin Sebastian went all out at this year's E3 event. But his biggest prediction? This year online games will rake in $11 billion dollars in revenue, out of a global $44 billion in the videogame market. That's a whole heaping ton of cash, and a sizable chunk of the pie, too.With Free Realms hitting three million players in only two months, it's safe to say that online games are indeed becoming a force to be reckoned. We're kind of in amazement when considering the potential numbers of Star Wars: The Old Republic's first few months after launch.The next few years are certainly going to be interesting for online games. Hopefully by the end of it all, we'll still be able to walk outside without immediately hissing and burning alive from the sunlight.
Analyst expecting $100 PS3 price cut before Fall 09
According to Lazard Capital Markets analyst Colin Sebastian, the PS3 is due for a price cut sometime between E3 and the end of the summer. More specifically, Sebastian expects a cut of $100 from the console's current $399 price tag, putting it at a much more consumer-friendly $299. Anything less than $100, Sebastian told Gamasutra, "would likely be perceived negatively by the market."Given that both the Wii and Xbox 360 are priced at or below the $299 mark (with the exception of the Xbox 360 Elite), we'd say Sebastian is right to claim that any cut less than $100 would be unacceptable. Taking the current economic conditions into consideration, it's likely difficult for most people to justify the $399 price tag when there are comparable consoles to be had for less.Sebastian joins a cavalcade of companies and analysts making similar predictions lately, noting that it would be a win for everybody. Sony could push its upcoming first-party lineup into more gamers' hands, publishers would gain a larger audience and retailers would enjoy better margins. Sebastian says that "the next 12 months are critical to regain market share" for the Playstation, especially with demand for the Wii finally slowing down and Microsoft reportedly prepping its own motion control interface. And, of course, with Sony aiming to increase PS3 sales by 30 percent this year, a price cut certainly wouldn't hurt.
Analysts: US game sales slump to continue until second half of '09
The go-to game industry analysts see the downward sales in March as a trend that could continue over the next several months. Wedbush Morgan's Michael Pachter notes that hardware sales were down 19 percent year-over-year and he doesn't see a reversal of software sales in the "near term." Lazard Capital's Colin Sebastian is concerned that the industry continues to see sales "concentrated among a small group of top-tier software publishers and first-party platform holders." He believes this leaves little room for ... well, anyone else in the near future.Both gurus see the second half of the year working out better for the industry. Edge notes that US industry sales have hit $4.25 billion during the first quarter, the same place they were during 2008's record-breaking year. [Image]
Analyst: US Wii sales 'steady' despite Japanese decline
Last week, Nintendo president Satoru Iwata described the Wii's sales status in Japan as "the most unhealthy situation since its launch in Japan." According to Lazard Capital Markets analyst Colin Sebastian, the situation is significantly healthier in the US. "With recent data from Japan indicating a slowdown in Wii hardware, our checks in the U.S. still indicate fairly steady sell-through," Sebastian said. Any perceived drop in hardware sales is attributable to normal "seasonal sluggishness."Even better, production increases mean that, for once, there is enough supply to meet the steady demand. Sebastian reports that Wii hardware is "widely available at retail." If Wii Sports Resort is expected to fix the "unhealthy" situation in Japan, we may expect hardware supply to dip again worldwide when that comes out.%Gallery-27709%
Analyst predicts new Zelda game in 2009
Here's a little-known fact: If industry analysts go too long without foretelling something – anything – they break out in a nasty case of hives. That may be why Lazard Capital Markets' Colin Sebastian has come forward with his latest prediction, namely that Nintendo will release a new Zelda game for the Wii sometime in 2009.While anticipating "potentially fewer hit titles" across the board next year, the soothsayer notes to Gamespot that his prophecy for a follow-up to Twilight Princess, as well as a new "Princess Peach adventure," is little more than guesswork at this point. Traditionally, Nintendo has released just a single principle Zelda title per console cycle, though given that the last game started life on the GameCube gives Sebastian's prediction a bit more weight, if only slightly. As for us, we gave up trying to read Nintendo's body language a long time ago, and have just resigned ourselves to take the waggles as they come.
Publisher stocks hit by market freefall; analysts optimistic
If you haven't looked out your window today, you might have missed stocks that are falling faster than Chicken Little can blink. Game publishers were not immune, as the NASDAQ (where most publishers are listed) Composite Index fell 199.61 points, or 9.14 percent. As for the individual publishers, Gamespot points out that Electronic Arts saw a 9.16 percent drop to $36 a share. Activision Blizzard was hit hard with a 13.8 percent drop to $14.12 a share. As for the console makers, Sony and Microsoft saw a 5.09 and 8.72 respective percent drop. Overseas, Ubisoft's stock dropped a whopping 21.5% to €45.50 (US $65.37) on the Euronext market.Despite these stock drops, analysts speaking to Gamasutra remain optimistic, with Wedbush Morgan's Michael Pachter expecting none of the companies to be affected by the lending crisis. Lazard Capital Markets' Colin Sebastian predicts a "cocooning" effect where people flock to games as a cost-efficient form of escapism. In what is surely the most "no duh" prediction, Sebastian expects World of Warcraft to continue serving as an unwavering money stream for Activision Blizzard.[Image Source: Digg]
