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Analyst downgrades Blizzard stock in anticipation of SWTOR launch
Zomg, the sky is falling in Azeroth! OK, not really, but World of Warcraft is heading for troubled waters if you believe an analyst at Lazard Capital Markets. According to a report at Gamespot, Atul Bagga downgraded Activision-Blizzard's stock from "buy" to "neutral" due to the results of a recent online survey that pointed to restlessness among a certain subset of WoW players. Whether the perceived wanderlust has to do with the game's age (it turns seven this month) or the deafening hype bandwagon that is gathering steam due to next month's Star Wars: The Old Republic debut, the numbers indicated a possible loss of between 900,000 and 1.6 million WoW players following TOR's launch.
Modern Warfare 3 pre-orders near 9 million, analyst says
According to Lazard Capital Markets' Atul Bagga, as reported by GameSpot, pre-orders for Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 were nearly three times that of Battlefield 3, which pegs Activision's shooter at around 9 million pre-orders. The estimate puts Modern Warfare 3 pre-orders roughly 70 percent ahead of those for Modern Warfare 2 and 55 percent beyond Call of Duty: Black Ops. Furthermore, the analyst expects Modern Warfare 3 to move a full 20 million copies by the end of the year. Those aren't exactly outlandish estimates, given the success of the franchise. Perhaps a more interesting study would be to gauge how many people are skipping work to play. Frankly, with Skyrim launching later this week, we fear worldwide productivity will flatline forever.
Analyst: Walmart could 'expand' used game market
According to a recent report from Lazard Capital Markets' Colin Sebastian, the firm's "industry checks" have revealed that Walmart has begun selling used games in over 500 of its stores. We decided to perform our own industry check, and the very first Walmart we called (in Tulsa, Oklahoma) was indeed stocking used games. The clerk we spoke to said that the store "just started carrying them." Further investigation revealed that used titles are also available on Walmart's website. The company revealed plans to begin a used game program earlier this year, and Sebastian believes Walmart will "focus on the deep-value end of the market (e.g., games under $20 ASP)," potentially preventing "overlap" with used game juggernaut GameStop. Cheaper, older games do seem to dominate Walmart's used inventory, although we did spot Rock Band 3 for $50. Assuming Walmart maintains this focus on cheaper games, Sebastian believes the program could "ultimately expand the market for used games." Sebastian notes that getting into the used game business isn't easy, requiring extensive inventory tracking, refurbishment and restocking. He concludes that it's unlikely for other used game distributors to be as "tightly integrated" as GameStop. We've certainly seen big names try and fail at the used game racket before ... Walmart included.
Analysts weigh in on Panasonic's Jungle
New tech does not always equal gimme gimme -- according to several prominent analysts, Panasonic is set to engage in quite the uphill battle with its new handheld, The Jungle. Both Bill Pidgeon of M2 Research and David Cole of DFC Intelligence told IndustryGamers they believe the unit is "a non-starter." Colin Sebastian of Lazard Capital Markets said it looks like "an uphill challenge to launch a new portable gaming device unless there is some meaningful differentiation or access to proprietary content," while EEDAR's Jesse Divnich offered that its success hinges on third-party support, saying that, "with any hardware platform regardless of its quality, the absence of strong third-party support will most certainly end in failure." All valid points, but should these guys be giving the device the benefit of the doubt? As it stands right now, we don't know much about the system other than what it aims to do: give MMO players a dedicated piece of hardware so they can take their games on the go. Given how popular MMOs are (and, in turn, how much of the cash money they generate), from a business standpoint it would seem win-win; nobody else is offering something to MMO players who may want a bit of portability. But, on the other hand, the problem is -- at least according to these analysts -- that the handheld doesn't particularly fill a void that can't be filled by a netbook or laptop.
Roundup: Analyst commentary on Kinect pricing
Everybody has an opinion at the moment about Kinect's $150 price tag, but let's hear what the analysts who get paid for their opinions think. We've got reactions from EEDAR's Jesse Divnich, Lazard's Colin Sebastian and Wedbush Morgan's Michael Pachter, after the break.
DJ Hero sales 'modest,' analyst says; Activision refuses to comment
Lazard Capital Markets analyst Colin Sebastian told Gamasutra that, while the gaming industry is currently "stable," sales figures of Activision's critically-lauded DJ Hero look to be only "modest" in the US -- an understatement in the UK. Continuing the pricing trend of peripheral-based titles, DJ Hero retails for $120 for its standard edition and $200 for its premium, "Renegade" edition. According to Sebastian, consumers are "showing price sensitivity" toward games with price points greater than $100.In recent history, the trend of peripheral-based releases has fallen short of sales expectations. Internet-famous Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter -- along with others in the field of "professional guessing" -- recently halved holiday sales predictions for Guitar Hero 5 and The Beatles: Rock Band; after both fell short of initial sales predictions.According to Cowen Group analyst Doug Creutz, the falling projections of peripheral games reflect both the casual consumer's decision to reduce spending on games, as well as the possibility that gamers are losing interest in the played-out rhythm genre.When contacted by Joystiq, Activision refused to comment on the matter. With no less than three new rhythm titles on the horizon, we presume publishers hope the trend of sluggish peripheral-based game sales comes to a screeching halt; like the days of disco music and, apparently, outlining the objectives of major marketing campaigns.
GameStop details three-point plan for digital distro future
GameStop doesn't really have to worry about digital distribution devices like the PSP Go right now -- in the Go's case, it's because there's pretty much nothing on it -- but, in the future, the company may need to consider adapting to a less physical media-dependent market. Though some say that day won't come until 2017 (others say digital distribution will endanger the company), Lazard Capital Markets analyst Colin Sebastian recently attended an analyst-only GameStop meeting at the NYSE (via IndustryGamers) where the company actually detailed its plans to prepare for the rise of the machines digital distribution.GameStop's three main goals to adapt included increasing in-store sales of point cards for online purchases, expanding its digital distribution of PC and casual titles via its website and making a strategic investment in the space or acquiring an online entity specializing in digital distribution. The first two are pretty cut and dry, but that last item really gives one food for thought.There are certainly a plethora of online distributors that GameStop could own; Steam, Greenhouse, Impulse, GoG and Direct2Drive are all established and popular digital distribution services, though we think GameStop may have some trouble should it pursue Steam or Direct2Drive -- which are owned by Valve and IGN (News Corp.), respectively. And, hey, if GameStop decides to purchase any one of these and doesn't like it, there's always the option to trade it back in for ... ah, forget it.
Analyst expecting $100 PS3 price cut before Fall 09
According to Lazard Capital Markets analyst Colin Sebastian, the PS3 is due for a price cut sometime between E3 and the end of the summer. More specifically, Sebastian expects a cut of $100 from the console's current $399 price tag, putting it at a much more consumer-friendly $299. Anything less than $100, Sebastian told Gamasutra, "would likely be perceived negatively by the market."Given that both the Wii and Xbox 360 are priced at or below the $299 mark (with the exception of the Xbox 360 Elite), we'd say Sebastian is right to claim that any cut less than $100 would be unacceptable. Taking the current economic conditions into consideration, it's likely difficult for most people to justify the $399 price tag when there are comparable consoles to be had for less.Sebastian joins a cavalcade of companies and analysts making similar predictions lately, noting that it would be a win for everybody. Sony could push its upcoming first-party lineup into more gamers' hands, publishers would gain a larger audience and retailers would enjoy better margins. Sebastian says that "the next 12 months are critical to regain market share" for the Playstation, especially with demand for the Wii finally slowing down and Microsoft reportedly prepping its own motion control interface. And, of course, with Sony aiming to increase PS3 sales by 30 percent this year, a price cut certainly wouldn't hurt.
Analyst: US Wii sales 'steady' despite Japanese decline
Last week, Nintendo president Satoru Iwata described the Wii's sales status in Japan as "the most unhealthy situation since its launch in Japan." According to Lazard Capital Markets analyst Colin Sebastian, the situation is significantly healthier in the US. "With recent data from Japan indicating a slowdown in Wii hardware, our checks in the U.S. still indicate fairly steady sell-through," Sebastian said. Any perceived drop in hardware sales is attributable to normal "seasonal sluggishness."Even better, production increases mean that, for once, there is enough supply to meet the steady demand. Sebastian reports that Wii hardware is "widely available at retail." If Wii Sports Resort is expected to fix the "unhealthy" situation in Japan, we may expect hardware supply to dip again worldwide when that comes out.%Gallery-27709%
Analyst: WoW to add a million players in a year
At least one person who claims to be in the know believes that WoW ain't done yet: Colin Sebastian, an analyst at Lazard Capital Markets, believes that by the end of 2009, World of Warcraft will have picked up at least another million players around the world, in addition to the 10.9 million he says are already in the game. The launch of Wrath of the Lich King and the surge in popularity of the game in China will bring the game up to as much as 12 million players before the end of 2009.There's no question that WoW's population has slowed down lately -- the last time we heard an official update from Blizzard was way back in January, and while this analyst claims there are more nowadays, there's no question that things have plateaued for the moment. But maybe there are some more folks out there who haven't played yet, and maybe Wrath of the Lich King will bring them into the fold.He also mentions Warhammer Online, as you might expect (isn't that pretty much a requirement anytime you talk about MMO populations these days?), but he's landed on the same conclusion both Blizzard, Mythic, and all of their players have already ended up at: WAR isn't really going to affect what WoW does, and vice versa. "Core WoW users," apparently, have "limited interest" in the other big MMO out there at the moment.
Analysts see into future, expect 650k US sales for WAR's first month
Here we go again, it's time for people to start predicting the sales of the next big MMO. So get out your thinking hat and grab ahold of your pie charts and bar graphs! Hm, somehow that sounded a lot more exciitng before we said it. Anyhow, Warhammer Online is nearly at launch day and has been given a 650,000 sales prediction for the first month in the United States from Lazard Capital Markets senior VP, Colin Sebastian. It's important to stress that this is for the US territory only, which means that's kind of a high prediction.Our guess for the reason behind the European exclusion is because it's a bit of a wildcard. Warhammer being a much bigger property over there means its sales could land almost anywhere. It could also be because Lazard Capital Markets only deals in US sales predictions, but we like to think they're scared of Europe, instead. All in all with first month US sales being predicted at over half a million, we have to assume many are expecting Warhammer Online to perform pretty impressively overall.
Analyst talks price drop, Gran Turismo
Analysts, for some reason or another, are important to the industry. Colin Sebastian of Lazard Capital Markets commented on Sony's recent price drop of the machine, saying it will give the platform an important "shot in the arm." As the first official price cut since the product's launch more than two years ago, marketing will be crucial. Thankfully, according to Sebastian, Sony has a plan: "Sony is planning to support the pricing move with a new print and online marketing campaign targeted at young adults and teens." Let's hope it's better than what we've seen so far. Price is one of the sole detriments to PSP's performance. With a lower price, Sebastian notes, the system should sell much better: "We note that a Wal-Mart promotion on Black Friday last year generated significant sales volume for the PSP at a discounted price of $169, providing one indication of potential consumer demand. We also believe the potential release of Gran Turismo for the PSP in 2007 could further boost unit sales." Wait? Did he mention Gran Turismo? Isn't that game canceled? Or maybe it's not. Let's hope that he knows something we don't. The battle's far from over, the analyst reminds us. "It is too early to conclude whether Sony's pricing action will cause game developers to increase the pipeline of new PSP titles." Certainly, the price drop is encouraging, but "at the new $169 price, we note that the PSP is still $40 higher than Nintendo's DS." [Via GameDaily]
Analyst: lower price, younger demographic
Analysts get paid a lot of money to come up with stuff. While most of the info they spew out is incorrect, it's still fascinating to see the kooky predictions that they come up with. GameDaily BIZ reports that Lazard Capital Markets analyst Colin Sebastian believes that Sony will be targeting younger players in future PSP campaigns: "Sony could be preparing to bolster the PSP handheld market with a shift in marketing towards a younger demographic, possibly including a hardware price cut later this year."A lower price combined with some more kid-friendly software a la LocoRoco may help the PSP compete directly against its biggest competitor: the DS. Certainly, Nintendo has reaped the benefits of going for the younger gamer: will Sony be able to strike gold as well?
