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Analyst roundup: 5m iPhones for Q4, gloomy Christmas ahead
Widely-read Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster is revising his prior estimate for the quarter ending a week from Tuesday, and his outlook is even rosier than before. Instead of 4.1 million iPhone 3Gs, Munster expects Apple will sell 5 million of the handsets. Likewise, he's revising his estimates for Mac sales up by 300,000 units, and iPod sales up by 200,000 units. If he's right, it will mean Apple will have sold 7.4 million iPhones so far this year. That puts Apple well on track to meet its own prediction of selling 10 million handsets for calendar year 2008. On the other hand, we have Morgan Stanley, who cut price targets for nine hardware companies, including Apple. Morgan cited a "fragile consumer," slower overall spending, and a stronger dollar (the last of which impacts sales abroad for U.S. companies). This comes after a weak August for Mac sales, which -- in context -- only means that Apple's numbers didn't grow quite as fast as they did in prior months. They still sold 23 percent more Mac units than August 2007, but that was sharply lower than July 2008's 43 percent increase over July 2007. [Via Fortune, Silicon Alley Insider, and 24/7 Wall St.] Thanks, Robert!
Nielsen & Charter track second-by-second viewing, know you love Hannah Montana
Not content to let Tivo and TNS have all the second-by-second viewer tracking fun, Nielsen has teamed up with Charter Communications to track every moment of viewing from 320,000 households in LA. Nielsen is the most famous rating system, but so far its lagged behind the competition in pulling data directly from set-top's, although even that doesn't tell the whole story. Without its traditional system, there's no way to tell what people really watched, or if they just walked away ten minutes into the Knight Rider remake (We watched all the way through cuz we love The Hoff that much). As far as the viewers tracked (consent is not considered necessary), we just hope they're watching HD.[Via BlogRunner]
Market research could have improved PS3's image
Few people hate Sony as a company; it is just the PS3 -- as well as the DRM and exploding batteries -- that pull the brunt of the ire. In fact, many of their other products are beloved by consumers worldwide and aren't decried by the media. The biggest reason is Sony's Electronic Division's strong consumer research practices. Sony's television and digital camera lines garner much consumer approval. This is helped in part by the creation of focus groups and people who actually listen to customer feedback. For example, when developing the Mylo device (a handheld WiFi device that allows chat-functions, Internet connectivity, music and a full QWERTY keyboard) they sent 850 of the devices out to determine the who, what, where, when, why and how the product would be used and made changes around the feedback gained; as such, the Mylo is poised to be another well-received Sony product. The PS3 is a device that appears to have been developed in a vacuum; one where only the engineers built what they thought was the ultimate console. This is shown by the general user unfriendly environment the PS3 has built; symptoms of which are seen in major media publications. While most of the problems can easily be fixed with firmware upgrades over time, there are still aspects that cannot be fixed -- such as the lack of a scaler chip to allow for a simple one-and-done resolution setting when using various features -- without angering earlier adopters or alienating customers with confusing redesigns so early in the life-cycle. How different would the PS3 be today if the PlayStation Division took the same consumer research approach the Electronics Division does?
Analysts put 360 on top by 2010
It seems like some market research firm has a new prediction for the game industry every day. One day, the PS3 is on top. The next, it's Wii, Wii, Wii (all the way home). Today's chart is all about the 360. IDG estimates that the Xbox 360 will sell 23.9 million units in North America by 2010, followed by the PS3 at 23.5 million, with the Wii in a distant third at 13.6 million units sold. Okay, so for the 360's sake, it's really more of a tie. Granted, these numbers are only for North America, so we have no idea where this puts 360 in a global perspective. Still, most predictions we've seen put the PS3 on top. That makes this chart special. Take off your Fanboy hat for a minute and answer this question: could the 360 really outsell the entrenched juggernaut that is the Playstation?[Via Joystiq]
HDTVs connected to Media Center PCs to triple by 2007
We love market studies, they give us an idea of the reasons why companies are misled and fail to offer the right products and services at prices we want make the decisions they do. Pacific Media Associates believes their research indicates that in the three year period from 2005 to 2007 the number of HDTV-connected Media Center PCs will have tripled. Not entirely surprising considering all the features added over that period, the manufacturers who have started shipping Media Center PCs en masse and that whenever Windows Vista does launch, Media Center will be a part of the Home Premium and Vista Ultimate versions. While streaming and Xbox 360 integration is great, we're not totally sold on the Media Center PC dream just yet; we'll wait until the QAM, HDCP and CableCard questions have been settled before making any long term decisions.[Via PVR Wire]
College students: iPods better than beer
Kids these days. When I was a college man, my pals and I spent many an evening tying one on getting to know the locals socializing. According to Student Monitor, which conducts market research of student life, the iPod was rated as being more of an "in" thing than beer when the company recently polled 1,200 students. Granted, it was a close call (the iPod nabbed a rating of 73% while beer brought in 71%), but still, I was quite surprised. I love my iPod and all, but I'm not going to turn down a (properly poured) Guinness.What's your take, students: Your brew or your iPod?[Via Blogging Stocks]Thanks to everyone who sent this in.
Study shows more support for in-game ads
According to oddly-capitalised research agency comScore Networks, gamers are a ripe target for marketers. With almost 50% of all Internet users apparently reading game sites, reaching out to these 76 million consumers is big business.The survey also looked at attitudes to in-game advertising amongst heavy and light gamers. Heavy gamers are more familiar with the concept of in-game ads, and are also more likely to buy products advertised in-game. The conclusion across all types of gamers leans towards the inevitable -- in-game ads will be a feature of the future.With only 800 gamers surveyed, a larger segment may produce vastly different results, but these statistics are encouraging for firms like Microsoft's Massive who are working within this market.[Via Gamasutra]
