Rumor Roundup
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Rumor Roundup: BREAKING - March and April not same month
AAPL earnings will come in well above upper end of company's guidance, say analysts, at $68.3B (9to5 Mac) Source: Some analysts Chance it's true: None "Analyst consensus" of Apple's performance was off by billions of dollars. You know, like always. The amateur analysts came closer, at $69.2 billion The "professional" analysts (is that even a thing?) were even farther off at $67.6 billion Apple's actual revenues for the quarter: $74.6 billion So the amateur analysts were off by nearly $5 billion, and the "professionals" were off by $7 billion. Do we seriously need any more proof that analysts have no idea what they're talking about when they talk about Apple? $5 to $7 billion isn't a rounding error, guys. It's a huge pile of money and a big, glowing signpost pointing to the fact that analysts' entire game is built on pure conjecture... which is a nicer, more educated way of saying total BS. Rumored 'iPad Pro' and Companion Stylus Imagined in New Renderings (MacRumors) Source: Mockup Chance it's true: None, because mockup The parade of awful mockups and renderings continues ad infinitum, and MacRumors goes on spreading them as though they matter. Minus 74.6 billion points (plus or minus 7 billion) to the designer for using a freaking QR code in his mockups. Fie on you, sir. For shame. Apple Watch to go on sale in March, claims analyst (Macworld) Source: "Accurate" analyst Ming-Chi Kuo Chance it's true: None Alas, even Macworld has now fallen into the trap of repeating everything Kuo says as though it matters. Unfortunately for Kuo's much-ballyhooed accuracy record, less than 24 hours after Macworld posted this, Tim Cook announced during Apple's earnings call that the Apple Watch will in fact ship in April. I'm not a scientist or a "well-connected insider", but I'm still pretty sure March and April aren't the same month. (developing...) This "accurate" analyst also predicted iPhone sales of 73 million units (Apple sold 74.5 million) and Mac sales of 5.9 million (Apple sold 5.5 million). 1.5 million iPhones takes up a lot of space... although I suppose that could be offset by negative 400,000 Macs. "You're just being nitpicky," some might insist. "1.5 million isn't that much considering the numbers involved now." Allow me to retort: in Q4 2007, Apple sold 1.1 million iPhones. Kuo's estimate was off by more than all the iPhones Apple sold during the first financial quarter it was widely available, and 400,000 Macs is about half of the number of Macs Apple used to sell quarterly during the early 2000s. "Accurate". While we're on the subject, didn't someone else who loves to brag about his accuracy record also put forward an incorrect launch date for the Apple Watch? "I am convinced" the Apple Watch will launch in April instead because of this leak.
Rumor Roundup: Features you can't explain to Grandma
Apple exploring smarter Smart Cover, new gesture controls for iPad (AppleInsider) Source: Patent application Chance it's true: The patent? 100 percent. This showing up on store shelves? Much less. Apple patents tons of stuff that never makes it to market. It obviously also patents things which do, but after reading through how this feature would supposedly work, I'm doubtful it'll ever actually ship. Explaining the Smart Cover to your grandma, as it exists today, is relatively easy. Trying to explain any of the stuff this patent describes to your grandma is just going to convince her to crochet a new cover for the iPad instead. Apple targets for Apple Watch battery life revealed, A5-caliber CPU inside (9to5 Mac) Source: Internal Apple leak Chance it's true: 90 percent Like most reports of this nature, this is almost certainly sourced from disloyal Apple employees who, for some reason, think leaking company secrets to rumor blogs is the cool, hip thing to do. This report is very detailed, with tidbits suggesting the Apple Watch's processor will be more powerful than the first generation iPad (insane), and that the device's battery life is likely to seem underwhelming compared to other device Apple sells. It's hard to imagine doing several hours worth of stuff on a screen that small every day, however, so while detractors will likely jump up and down over the Apple Watch's supposedly "abysmal" battery life, real-world users may well find it suitable. It's also pretty obvious from this report where the pain points of the Apple Watch lie, which make the improvements for the second-generation device even more obvious. Count on an A6 or higher class processor, mostly optimised for better battery life, and a consequential massive leap forward in the amount of time you can use it between charges. Photos of 12-Inch MacBook Air Display Show Black Glass Cover, Polished Apple Logo (MacRumors) Source: Parts leak Chance it's true: 90 percent Now we're talking. Analysts can hem and haw all they want, and "people familiar with the matter" can do their voodoo dance, but nothing beats a good old photo like this. In the past, parts leaks like this often turned out to be fake, but virtually all similar leaks in 2014 (for example, the iPhone 6) turned out to be accurate. KGI: iPhone sales forecast at 73M for Q4 ahead of Apple Watch debut in March, 12" MacBook Air in Q1 (AppleInsider) Source: "Accurate" analyst Ming-Chi Kuo Chance it's true: 40 percent at most The rumor blogs' favorite "well-connected" analyst is back with yet another batch of predictions. Roughly half of these will turn out to be true, and that's all anyone else will remember. The stack of stuff he gets wrong will be swept under the rug, utterly forgotten, and the legend of the "world's most accurate analyst" will live on forever despite all evidence to the contrary. Samsung to Produce Majority of Apple's A9 Chips for Next-Generation iPhone (MacRumors) Source: Korean website Chance it's true: Who knows I'm always suspicious of positive Samsung spin coming from South Korean publications, because I certainly wouldn't put it past Samsung to just outright buy (or bully) good press out of its home country. Laying that aside, at this point we've heard conflicting rumors making wholly incompatible claims. First Samsung was going to make all of the A9 chips, then none, then sharing the load with Pegatron making most of them, and now Samsung is making the majority again. It's almost as though these people have no actual idea what's going on and are simply throwing wild guesses out there in the hopes of luring in pageviews. But no... that can't be it. No one writing about Apple would ever stoop that low, would they?
Rumor Roundup: Vindicated rather than vindictive
Following the non-bombshell, non-revelation from a non-accurate analyst earlier this week that Apple might be making a stylus for the iPad, the rumor fires cooled considerably, with only two of note seeping through the cracks. After eating Intel's mobile lunch, Apple could next devour Qualcomm's Baseband Processor business (AppleInsider) Another brilliant report from Daniel Eran Dilger (one of my favourite Apple writers at the moment) makes a compelling case that Apple may be looking at manufacturing its own baseband chips for the iPhone. Apple currently sources these chips from Qualcomm at a surprisingly high cost - higher than the cost of the iPhone's CPU itself, if bill of material estimates are to be believed. Dilger's analysis of the trouble Qualcomm faces is both well-reasoned and a good read. Whether any of his predictions eventuate remains to be seen, but it seems likely. Analysts See Record-Breaking Sales for iPhone and Mac in Holiday Quarter (MacRumors) Source: Some analyst Chance it's true: Probable It won't come as any surprise at all if Apple sets sakes records in this most recent financial quarter. People looooove them some iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus, including me; the iPhone 6 is the best version of the iPhone I've owned, and I've owned most of them. What will be surprising is if these analysts hit the number right on the head with their predictions; these people are usually off by millions of units, which makes it very difficult to take them seriously. As an aside, here's my prediction from earlier this week on how BGR would react to the stylus rumor: At time of writing, BGR had not yet chimed in with its own take on this rumor. Knowing their typical modus operandi, here's my prediction of their headline: GOOD NEWS, APPLE FANS: iPad Pro will come with a stylus This will be followed by some wide-eyed worship of Kuo's accuracy record, snarky digs at Steve Jobs's hatred of styluses, and likely some BS or other about how Apple is "playing catchup" to Samsung, because they've had styluses for years. The actual "content" bit of the article (in other words, the condensed reblogging of the original source's main points) will fit within a paragraph. I pretty much nailed it, except BGR's linkbaity headline was even worse than I imagined: "Here's why Apple's upcoming 'iPad Pro' will be a failure, according to Steve Jobs" is what they went with. BGR then spent more time in this article throwing poo over what Steve Jobs said five years ago than they spent on what "the world's most accurate analyst" (sic) said this week. The Macalope's takedown of BGR's latest wet splat of an article is definitely worth a read. I've often wondered if I was edging toward being too mean toward BGR and their, um, interesting approach to tech journalism, but seeing the Macalope utterly skewer them makes me feel closer to vindicated than vindictive.
Rumor Roundup: 'Nobody wants a stylus'
Google Is In Talks With Mobile Payments Company Softcard (TechCrunch) Source: "People familiar with the matter" Chance it's true: 90 percent This article seems less about how Google is reportedly trying to procure Softcard (likely for its patents related to mobile payments) and more about the utter implosion of Softcard itself. Check this out: "A source tells us that at one point the company's burn rate was around half a million dollars per day, or around $15 million per month." I mean, wow. Of course Google wants to buy such a high-performing company. Maybe they can integrate it with Google Glass and create the ultimate singularity of tech collapsing under the weight of its own hubris. And now for three different takes on the same rumor sourced from the rumormongers' favorite "accurate" analyst, Ming-Chi Kuo. KGI: Apple likely to launch simple stylus to enhance upcoming 12.9-inch iPad user experience; advanced model with 3D handwriting due later (AppleInsider) According to AppleInsider, this rumor comes from "well-regarded analyst Ming-Chi Kuo." Well-regarded by whom, exactly? The 2014 accuracy record of all analysts combined, except for Kuo, works out to around 30 percent. Kuo's standalone accuracy record stands at roughly 40 percent. Apparently being 10 percent less full of crap than the rest of the analysts futilely chasing Apple's coattails (and relevance) qualifies you as being considered "well-regarded." From the article: "Kuo, who has a fairly reliable track record in predicting Apple's future product directions, did not cite any particular source for the rumor outside of Apple's own patent filings. This marks an unusual turn for the analyst known to have close ties to Apple's supply chain partners." Point one: a 40 percent accuracy record is "fairly reliable" according to the rumor blogs. Take note, these are the same people who spent years calling Digitimes "sometimes reliable", and Digitimes has an accuracy record of less than one percent. Point two: the fact that Kuo hasn't cited his usual sources (which, it must be mentioned again, aren't all that reliable to begin with) strongly points to this being a typical bit of analyst dunderheaded daydreaming dung. Aside from some patents (which are meaningless, since Apple patents tons of stuff that never hits shelves), Apple has shown zero interest in producing or even promoting stylus use for the iPad. Steve Jobs was famously dismissive of styluses during the iPhone's introductory keynote, and while that was eight years ago (side note: whoa), it remains true today: a stylus is going to be, at best, a niche product for a very small subset of iPad users. The rest of us will happily go on tapping away with the ten styluses we have at the end of our hands. Apple Predicted to Launch Optional Stylus Accessory Alongside 12.9-Inch 'iPad Pro' (MacRumors) Surprisingly, MacRumors does not fall all over itself to fawn over Kuo's vaunted accuracy record. It sticks to straight reporting of his claims and the possible consequences should they turn out to be true. This is as close to skeptical as I've seen MacRumors in recent months, and it honestly kind of worries me... because as I look around my lounge, I already see evidence of dogs and cats living together. Can mass hysteria be far behind? KGI: Apple likely to sell stylus accessory alongside 12-inch 'iPad Pro' (9to5 Mac) According to 9to5 Mac, "KGI reports tend to be based off of supply-chain sources, which have proven very reliable in the past." Again, getting your rumors correct less than half of the time qualifies as "very accurate" in the disturbing alternate universe the rumor blogs live in. At time of writing, BGR had not yet chimed in with its own take on this rumor. Knowing their typical modus operandi, here's my prediction of their headline: GOOD NEWS, APPLE FANS: iPad Pro will come with a stylus This will be followed by some wide-eyed worship of Kuo's accuracy record, snarky digs at Steve Jobs's hatred of styluses, and likely some BS or other about how Apple is "playing catchup" to Samsung, because they've had styluses for years. The actual "content" bit of the article (in other words, the condensed reblogging of the original source's main points) will fit within a paragraph. No matter how bad BGR gets with its take on it, at least it will be better than Cult of Mac's barrel-scrapingly tasteless headline (no link, because Cult of Mac): "Steve Jobs rolls over in his grave: the iPad Pro could have a stylus." Just a reminder that no matter how bad the usual suspects get, there's far worse out there.
Rumor Roundup: If only 'Failblog' weren't already taken
Apple might already be testing its next major iPhone operating system (BGR) Source: Czech website Chance it's true: 100 percent Obviously Apple is internally testing an operating system that, if previous patterns hold, will be debuted to developers in about six months. This happens every year: Apple employees start surfing the web with devices running the next OS, someone notices them in their Google Analytics logs, rumor blogs go nuts over something that's not remotely newsworthy at all, and we poor unwitting readers are treated to gems of "insight" like this, from the article: "Obviously, there's nothing official about iOS 9 at this time, with some six months to go until Apple should unveil its next-gen mobile OS, and these iOS 9 devices could always be fakes." Expect to see variations on this theme roughly 12 months from now when iOS 10 starts showing up in someone's logs. Apple Ramping Up Production of 12-Inch MacBook Air for Q1 2015 Delivery (MacRumors) Source: Digitimes Chance it's true: 0.000001 percent, because Digitimes Once again, MacRumors fails to acknowledge, even in passing, the fact that Digitimes would rightly be named "Failblog" if that name weren't already taken. Then again, one of my oldest friends was often fond of saying that the sun shines even on a dog's [buttocks] every once in awhile, so this could conceivably turn out to be the single rumor Digitimes gets right this year. If so, we can safely ignore them for the rest of 2015, because one correct Apple rumor per year is all the allotment they get. Rumor: Apple's 'iPhone 6s' could ship with dual-lens camera, 'Force Touch' (AppleInsider) Source: Taiwanese website Chance it's true: 30 percent at most AppleInsider says the source of this rumor is "ever-reliable sources in the Asian supply chain." I can't tell if they're being sarcastic or not. I hope so. Neither of these rumors seem particularly far-fetched, but considering how far away we are from the expected unveiling of the next iPhone, I wouldn't get your hopes up that they're accurate. It's way too early in the rumor cycle for anyone to have the faintest idea what the next iPhone will be like. KGI: Apple is designing its own Mac processors; Intel and Global Foundry added to Apple's chipmaking stable (9to5 Mac) Source: "Accurate" analyst Ming-Chi Kuo Chance it's true: 40 percent at best Right on schedule, someone is beating on the "Apple will switch the Mac to ARM-based processors" drum again. This rumor crops up literally every year, and just like the Apple HDTV and low-cost iPhone, it keeps not happening. This time, "accurate" analyst Ming-Chi Kuo has make the bold prediction that Apple will abandon its relationship with Intel and use its own processors for Macs "in the next 1-2 years." Now, here's a question: when this doesn't happen in 2016 or 2017, is anyone besides me going to remember how this guy struck out yet again? Probably not. At any rate, these fools rarely know with any true accuracy what Apple's plans are 3-6 months down the line, much less 1-2 years. Apple's 'iPhone 6s' again rumored to feature 'Force Touch', 2GB RAM (AppleInsider) Source: Taiwanese website Chance it's true: 30 percent at best Some Taiwanese website re-reports what some other Taiwanese website said days earlier, and the rumor blogs predictably double-dip on this non-news "news". The same caveat from before applies here: anyone claiming to have credible knowledge of the next iPhone nearly nine months before its expected unveiling (if previous years' patterns hold) is blowing smoke. Intel CEO confident chipmaker can keep powering Apple's Macs by innovating (AppleInsdier) Source: Intel CEO Chance it's true: Who knows This is probably the least interesting story to come out all week. I mean, what did you expect the CEO of Intel to say other than this? Intel isn't Adobe; they're not going to throw their toys and publicly say "Go screw yourself, Apple" over a rumor like this. Instead, we get the totally predictable biz-speak talking points, which essentially boil down to, "Our relationship with Apple is strong, we love Apple, please baby don't leave us, we can change."
Rumor Roundup: Actually intelligent analysis
Manufacturing Mold for 'iPad Pro' Rear Shell or Dummy Unit Shown in New Photo (MacRumors) Source: Terrible photo Chance it's true: Who knows From the article: "Few details can be discerned from the relatively poor quality photo [...] simple design of the mold suggests this may be an unofficial mold being used create dummy units for manufacturers." So not only is this photo so poor that it's difficult to glean any details from it, it's also not even a photo of the actual mold for the device itself, but something used to generate mockups. Hard-hitting news here. I look forward to seeing next week's MacRumors top story: "Some guy in Palo Alto uploaded bootlegged iPad Pro schematics into his 3D printer. You won't believe what happened next!" AppleInsider's take on the same story is skeptical to the point of snarkiness, which I definitely appreciate. From the article: "Aside from being rectangular and sporting rounded corners, the mold does not bear any hallmarks of an iPad [...] it could simply be a mold for a lunch tray." Amen to that. On Charging the Purported USB-Only MacBook (Daring Fireball) Source: Actually intelligent analysis Chance it's true: Who knows John Gruber has some smart analysis on what the allegedly MagSafe-deprived next-gen MacBook Air might offer for a charging solution. None of the options he offers sound particularly appealing; in fact, all of them seem like they come with so many tradeoffs that any one of these "solutions" if actually implemented would inspire Epic Nerd Rage™ immediately following the device's announcement. "Apple is sacrificing too much in the name of thinness!" the geeks will decry. They'll be right, of course, but Apple's core customers - normal people, in other words (not the so-called "Apple faithful" that the press likes to go on and on [and on and on] about) - will line up in droves to buy them. And now, four different takes on a terribly-sourced rumor. Samsung Supposedly Wins Orders to Produce Apple Watch Components (MacRumors) Source: Digitimes Chance it's true: 3720 to 1 (never tell me the odds) The only trace of incredulity in this report is in the headline. The story itself is straight re-reporting of the most godawful Apple rumor source ever spawned from the blackest pits of inaccuracy and anti-journalism. You wouldn't know it by how seriously MacRumors treats the subject matter, but Digitimes has an accuracy record that can best be described as laughably sad. Fake Apple Watch at CES for $27 as sketchy report says Samsung making innards of real thing (9to5 Mac) Same terrible source, moderately better reporting. From the article: "As ever, the less than reliable source cites only vague 'industry sources' " That's the extent of 9to5 Mac's skepticism on this non-story story. More hilarious than that is their recounting that "analyst estimates of year-one Apple Watch sales range from 10M to 37M units." There's a 27 million unit distance between the bottom and top end of analyst estimates for Apple Watch sales. If you needed any more proof that analysts have absolutely no clue what they're talking about when they talk about Apple, there it is. Samsung, ASE tapped to build Apple Watch's S1 processing module - report (AppleInsider) AppleInsider doesn't offer even the hint of a whiff of skepticism. This is 100 percent straight re-reporting of a "source" that got exactly one correct rumor in 2014. One among countless stupid, poorly-sourced or just outright made-up rumors. Big, ironic thumbs up to AppleInsider. Samsung is reportedly making a secret new chip in the Apple Watch (BGR) This will surprise absolutely no one who's been paying attention, but BGR also reported Digitimes' drivel as though it were engraved on stone tablets carried by Tim Cook himself. What to take away from this: we've apparently reached a trough in the rumor cycle where these rumor blogs think everyone has forgotten what a titanic failure of a source Digitimes is. I can't speak for anyone else, but I certainly never forget. Apple planning Apple Pay expansion into Canada as soon as March (9to5 Mac) Source: "People familiar with the matter" - possible internal Apple leak Chance it's true: 90+ percent Like the UK, Canada is an obvious next step for Apple's international rollout of Apple Pay. Despite a widespread e-payment infrastructure where I live (New Zealand - I can count on one hand the number of times I've paid for something with cash in the past three years), I seriously doubt we'll see Apple Pay make its way here in 2015. Even 2016 seems optimistic. (No, I'm not bitter. Okay, maybe a little bitter.) Recent iPod Shuffle Shortages Due to Supplier Changes, Not Imminent Discontinuation (MacRumors) Source: "People familiar with the matter" Chance it's true: 100 percent There's always a big risk associated with pre-emptively erecting a tombstone over an iPod. Back in the dark days when TUAW used to regularly publish rumors just like everyone else, we struck out on calling the death of both the iPod classic and the shuffle. And that story came from a source we actually trusted (at the time - never again after that). I can't remember the last time I actually saw an iPod shuffle in the wild, and I think mine is at the bottom of a box in the bottom of my closet. But Apple will probably go on selling the thing until it can't source components for it anymore. Apple to release iOS 8 update next week (BGR) Source: "People familiar with the matter" Chance it's true: 75 percent or so For some reason, BGR gets a lot of tips of the variety "iOS update such-and-such will drop on such-and-such date." Unlike so many of their stories about Apple, these ones often turn out to be correct. Apple's rumored 12" MacBook Air may aggressively target mobility with USB 3.1 Type-C (AppleInsider) Source: Actually intelligent analysis Chance it's true: Seems pretty good, actually I'm a big fan of Daniel Eran Dilger's work. It's always well-written, well-researched, and well-thought-out. This piece is no exception. The case he makes for USB 3.1 Type-C in the next MacBook Air is pretty damned convincing. Highly recommended read.
Rumor Roundup: Death by 1000 cuts
Aside from the usual terrible supply chain sources and analyst BS, which is almost always wrong, is another type of Apple rumor that's almost always right: leaks from within the company. And it looks like the ratbag employee(s) within Apple leaking company secrets to rumor blogs (for some reason never adequately explained) have returned from Christmas vacation, because an explosion of new rumors obviously sourced from within Apple itself came out within the past few days. Before we get to those, let's see the stupid rumors from stupid sources. Apple Watch predicted to account for 36% of company's revenue growth in 2015 (AppleInsider) Source: Some analyst Chance it's true: 30 percent at best Yet another know-nothing analyst has come out with worthless predictions to add to the "How Many Apple Watches Will Be Sold" bingo game. The device hasn't even shipped yet, and Apple has been evasive about the pricing above the base model, and it's still not clear just how much demand there is for the device... but sure, we'll all choose to believe your very specific predictions about a device a vanishingly small number of people have even seen in person thus far. Supply chain rumor contradicts claims of new 4-inch iPhone in 2015 (AppleInsider) Source: Asian website Chance it's true: Who knows An Asian website, citing "supply chain sources," has now directly contradicted earlier rumors from analysts. All this means now is the rumor blogs have all their bases covered; whether a new 4-inch iPhone comes out this year or not, they'll be clamoring to claim they broke the story either way. From the article: "At this point, with so far to go before Apple is expected to debut its 2015 iPhone lineup in its usual September timeframe, it's difficult to place stock in any such rumors." Gee, you think? The iPhone 6 is succeeding wildly where the iPhone 5c failed (BGR) Source: Market research Chance it's true: Who knows I add this less for the claims made by the original source (which are probably accurate) and more for the idiotic spin BGR puts on them. For one thing, it just can't resist putting the words "iPhone 5c" and "fail" together yet again, because in whatever galaxy they live in a device that's sold in the millions and has stuck around for well over a year in Apple's lineup somehow counts as a failure. According to BGR, "Sales of the 5c were disappointing for Apple and the device did nothing to slow Android's march toward dominance." As for the first bit, [citation needed]. In regard to Android's supposed "dominance," the one company that was actually earning an appreciable amount of money off its Android-based devices has seen its profits plummet. "Dominance" indeed. The rest of the article pounds away at this marketshare hype, because to a BGR writer with a hammer, everything looks like a self-administered concussion. Apple may have sold 69M iPhones during Christmas quarter, shattering records and estimates (BGR) Source: Some analyst Chance it's true: 30 percent at best Analyst projections of Apple's quarterly sales are almost always off by several million units. Sometimes embarrassingly so. Why anyone still pays attention to this piffle is honestly beyond me. Apple's future iPhones might have one surprising display feature (BGR) Source: Japanese website Chance it's true: None Saved you a BGR: Some website claims the next-gen iPhone will have an OLED screen. If you're keeping score at home, the same rumors were attached to the iPhone 6, the iPhone 5s, the iPhone 5c, the iPhone 5, the iPhone 4s, several Macs, and the Apple HDTV. Number of products Apple currently sells with OLED screens: Zero. Now for the not-so-stupid rumors. Apple to start selling SIM-free iPhone 6 & 6 Plus in the U.S. tomorrow (9to5 Mac) Source: Internal leak from Apple Chance it's true: 100 percent This actually happened, so no need to dwell on it. This leak probably came from an Apple retail employee (or more than one) with advance notice of the sales. Apple's next major Mac revealed: the radically new 12-inch MacBook Air (9to5 Mac) Source: Internal leak from Apple Chance it's true: We'll see There's no doubt that this rumor was sourced from within Apple itself, and as John Gruber notes, it almost certainly was not an intentional leak on Apple's part. Gruber and several others whose opinions I respect have expressed doubt on portions of this report. The biggest sticking point is the purported "one port" design of this MacBook Air. Apple abandoning MagSafe, a connector designed to save your laptop from certain(ish) death if someone trips over the power cord, would definitely feel like a regressive move. Others have predicted that having only a single port wouldn't sit well with consumers; however, the iPad and iPhone have always only had a single port doing double duty for power and data transfer, so Apple may think it can get away with doing the same thing on an ultraportable notebook. An additional point worth noting, which John Gruber noticed: "Conspicuously absent from Gurman's report: the word 'retina'." Numerous analysts, including darling of the rumor blogs Ming-Chi Kuo, have been making noises about a 12-inch MacBook Air with a Retina display for some time. Although I would love to see a Retina display in a device like this, I would also love to watch these analyst yahoos eat massive piles of crow. I guess I win either way! From the article: "We must note that Apple tests several designs of upcoming products, so Apple may choose to ultimately release a new Air that does include the legacy components, though there is very little space on the edges for them." Someone has learned to hedge his bets after getting a few rumors wrong in 2014. "I am convinced" that if the new MacBook Air has a different design, it will be because of this leak. Apple Watch launch expected in March, retail training set for mid-February (9to5 Mac) Source: Internal leak from Apple Chance it's true: 90 percent Yet another in a series of leaks apparently coming from within Apple, this time seemingly someone (or several someones) from within the retail division. From the article: "Of course, unexpected delays in software development and manufacturing could push the Watch back further in the year, but March is the current plan." Bet successfully hedged yet again. Apple to widen pre-release iOS testing by roping in retail employees (9to5 Mac) Source: Internal leak from Apple Chance it's true: 90 percent Once again, apparently someone within Apple's retail division is leaking company secrets. I would pay good money to see the video footage of Apple finding out who these disloyal employees are and promptly marching them out of the building under guard. These continued leaks are pretty much death by 1000 cuts for the mystique surrounding Apple's products and plans. iPod shuffle supplies mysteriously dwindle in stores and online (9to5 Mac) Source: Original research Chance it's true: 100 percent 9to5 Mac presents two alternate theories for the low supply of the iPod shuffle: "The most likely possibility is that this shortage represents a temporary lack of components and that Shuffle production will pick up full speed in the near future. It is also plausible that Apple could be preparing to discontinue the iPod shuffle given that it axed the iPod Classic just last year."
Rumor Roundup: 'Should not be treated as hard evidence'
Even more evidence that the 'iPhone 6s mini' is coming this year (BGR) Source: Some analyst Chance it's true: 30 percent at best BGR plays fast and loose with the definition of the word "evidence" by citing analyst projections and guesswork over the supposed "iPhone 6s mini." It bears mentioning that so far the only "evidence" for this device's existence is balls-tripping screeds from other analysts. Therefore, it appears that the echo chamber effect is fully in play. One wonders if BGR staffers are also gullible enough to believe an army is attacking them if one man shouts into a nearby canyon. While we're on the subject, let's check out the definition of evidence: "The available body of facts or information indicating whether a belief or proposition is true or valid." So far we have neither facts nor information on this subject. Analysts throwing darts against a big wall full o' rumors is not the same thing as facts or information. It is, in fact, the antithesis of these things. Releasing an iPhone 6s mini is a huge no-brainer for Apple (BGR) Source: Reading way too much into things Chance it's true: None If anyone is qualified to pontificate about a "no-brainer" where Apple's concerned it's the folks at BGR. (Zing.) From the article: "Even though there's nothing confirmed about Apple's 2015 iPhone 6s plans" It is January. Of course there's nothing "confirmed" about the next iPhone. "it makes plenty of sense to see Apple announce a brand-new 4-inch iPhone this year for people who prefer one-handed smartphone operation above all else." Yes, to address that huge segment of the market that absolutely refuses to buy the larger-screened iPhone 6 or 6 Plus. Neither device has sold well in BGR's alternate universe, because reasons. "The iPhone 5s has a fingerprint sensor, but lacks NFC connectivity." Which, of course, Apple is completely incapable of adding to any device based on the iPhone 5s chipset. Just not gonna happen. No chance an iPhone 5cs (or equivalent) could have NFC. (/sarcasm) "While analysts believe a 4-inch iPhone 6s mini would be much cheaper than the iPhone 6 models, that's probably not going to happen, as Apple has proven more than once that it doesn't want to chase market share that way." Holy cannoli, did someone at BGR seriously write that sentence? The same BGR that spent all of 2013 insisting the iPhone 5c would be a "cheap" iPhone? The same BGR that spent all of 2014 insisting the iPhone 5c was a "failure flop" after it didn't live up to their asinine expectations? Are you seriously telling me that BGR has finally learned its lesson on this subject? "And I heard as it were the noise of thunder. One of the four beasts saying, 'Come and see.' And I saw. And behold: a white horse." Apple's unreleased iBeacon hardware exposed in user manual published by FCC (9to5 Mac) Source: Publicly available documentation Chance it's true: 100 percent This is an interesting glimpse of a road not (yet) taken with first-party iBeacon hardware. With so many potential uses for a device like this, it's curious that Apple hasn't released this to the public. iPad with stereo speakers pictured in alleged manufacturing render, claimed to be larger iPad prototype (9to5 Mac) Source: Schematic leak Chance it's true: 50/50 From the article: "It looks like it is the season of sketchy schematics and component leaks again." Ha, you say that as though that season ever ends. This season has a name, and it is "the whole freaking year except the two months immediately following Apple's end-of-year product launches." Let's call it the Season of Dung for short. "The picture looks like the side of an iPad Air, presumably larger (the image doesn't give any indication of relative scale)." So obviously this means it's a render of a bigger iPad. I mean, there's absolutely no evidence for that, which all the evidence we need! All done, publish it! *9to5 Mac editor chugs entire bottle of gin* "Obviously, the reliability of this image is very questionable and should not be treated as hard evidence." If it's really that obvious, why did you run this story? "At this point, it does seem that a larger iPad is on its way [...] KGI analyst Ming-Chi Kuo said the larger iPad is to be expected in the second quarter." I know this will come as a shock, but Ming-Chi Kuo is not the CEO of Apple. (BREAKING) The guy's accuracy record is a mere 40 percent, and that's after being generous. Kuo has struck out on rumors many, many times, but all you rumormongers remember is his Top 10 hits compilation album, so you go on citing him as though he's the Almighty Shaman of analysts. If Ming-Chi Kuo said an Apple HDTV was coming out this year, you guys would be all over that mess. Just like you were for several years in a row when Gene Munster said the same thing. How did that work out again? Note to investors: nothing an analyst says about Apple should be treated as hard evidence. Any analyst, ever.
Rumor Roundup: What to expect when you're expecting 2015
Apple in Talks with Major Banks to Launch Apple Pay in UK During First Half of 2015 (MacRumors) Source: "People familiar with the matter" Chance it's true: 100 percent It makes perfect sense that the UK will be the next nation to see Apple Pay availability. I'm not holding my breath for where I live; considering that New Zealand still doesn't even have one single physical Apple Store, not even in Auckland, it seems unlikely we're high on the priority list for Apple Pay. TSMC May Win Bulk of A9 Orders Due to Better Production Yield (MacRumors) Source: Some analyst Chance it's true: 30 percent, at best First, terrible sources with godawful accuracy records "reported" that Samsung would produce Apple's next-gen A9 processor. Now, another terrible source is saying the opposite. From the article: "The continually shifting Samsung vs. TSMC rumors reflect the ongoing competition between the two chip manufacturing companies and demonstrate just how important Apple contracts are to suppliers." No, that's not what's being demonstrated here. What's demonstrated by the continually shifting rumors is that these "sources" have no clue what they're talking about, and anyone who takes them seriously ends up looking silly. What's Coming From Apple in 2015: Apple Watch, iPad Pro, iPhone 6s, 12-Inch MacBook and More (MacRumors) Source: Reading way too much into things Chance it's true: Varies between 100 percent and zero Let's examine MacRumors' mega-list point by point. Apple Watch: This is a given. Apple already said this is coming out. iPad Pro: I give this a 50/50 chance of showing up at best. The rumors surrounding this device have come exclusively from the Asian supply chain and analysts, and both of those are the worst possible sources. Show me a single plausible component leak for this long-rumored device, and then I'll start to believe. iPads and iPhones: MacRumors admits that no one really knows anything about these at this point. Past patterns make it likely that this year will bring no major external design changes to these products and tweaked/upgraded internal components to make them faster, more powerful, and so forth. 12-inch MacBook: Again, I give this a 50/50 chance at most. There have been loads of rumors about this thing, but none of them come from sources I consider credible enough to call this a definite showpiece product for 2015. Mac lineup: Probably just processor bumps across the line. Apple TV: No one really knows what Apple has planned for this thing. Tons of rumors swirled around last year about a major redesign, but none of those eventuated. As for a full-fledged Apple HDTV, that's definitely not going to happen this year. Or any other year. With the exception of the Apple Watch, 2015 looks like it'll be a relatively sedate year for Apple's product lineup. That's why now is the perfect time for the company to pour its considerable resources into overhauling the quality of its software. Over the past couple of years, the bugs have been piling up in both OS X and iOS, and the user experience has started to suffer significantly across Apple's entire product range. If the only major new thing in the pipeline for this year is the Apple Watch, then Apple really has no excuse not to take a step back and plug the holes in its leaky software ship. "It just works" hasn't really been true for a couple of years now, and since Apple is banking on people buying into the "tight integration of hardware and software" mantra it's been selling for the past several decades, the company is in real danger of undermining the one thing it insists sets it apart from the others. In other words: Apple, please sort yourself out in 2015.
Rumor Roundup: Send off 2014 with the worst of all sources
Apple's Ultra-Slim 12-Inch MacBook Air Rumored to Enter Mass Production in Early 2015 (MacRumors) Source: Digitimes Chance it's true: 0.01 percent. Because Digitimes. What better way to close out 2014 than with a rumor from the worst of all sources? (I can think of several hundred better ways, but most of them are unprintable.) Digitimes got exactly one of its multitudinous rumors correct this year. Absolutely everything else they've ever said about Apple has either turned out to be completely incorrect or simply unverifiable. MacRumors, predictably, doesn't mention Digitimes' absolutely terrible accuracy record. At all. Not even a "sometimes reliable" for old times' sake. Predictably, BGR doesn't acknowledge Digitimes' poor record, either. AppleInsider passingly mentions "a poor track record with respect to Apple rumors" in the first paragraph. Only 9to5 Mac bothers to go the extra mile (well... more like ten yards) by noting that Digitimes had previously claimed this long-rumored device would launch in October. I would like to believe that 2015 will be a fresh start for Apple journalism, that these rumor blogs will take a long, hard look at something other than their pageviews and realize that continuing to reblog nonsense from birdcage-liner publications like Digitimes is not only damaging their own credibility, but the credibility of tech reporting in general. I'd like to believe that. But I don't. 2015 is just going to be more of the same. Rumor: Apple considering return to 4-inch form factor in 2015 with 'iPhone 6s mini' (AppleInsider) Source: Some analyst Chance it's true: None whatsoever This has all the typical watermarks of analyst nonsense: a "note to investors" sourced from "supply chain checks" that pairs grandiose claims of forthcoming Apple products with "insight" that betrays the author's total cluelessness when it comes to Apple. Refer to this gem: "The new 4-inch 'iPhone 6s mini' may include 'purpose-built low cost components' from Qualcomm to keep the price down." Point 1: That's the stupidest name for a rumored Apple product that I've ever heard. It sounds like something Samsung would come up with. Point 2: The reference to "purpose-built low cost components" is another big red flag. It makes it sound like this guy is claiming this phone will be built on the cheap, and sold on the cheap, in order to expand Apple's marketshare. You know, basically a re-run of the rumors leading up to the iPhone 5c, rumors which turned out to be completely off the mark. I have little doubt that Apple will indeed come out with a new 4-inch version of the iPhone next year. It'll most likely be an updated version of the iPhone 5c, with Touch ID and internal components identical to the iPhone 5s. Don't get your hopes up for anything more spectacular than that... especially if some analyst is the one telling you otherwise.
Rumor Roundup: Comfortably close to zero
'Twas the night before Christmas... well, not exactly. At any rate, there are barely any creatures stirring in the rumor landscape, with only two rumors of note having come out in the past few days. Apple could sell record 67M iPhones in December quarter, survey suggests (AppleInsider) Source: Some analyst Chance it's true: 30 percent The "How many of Apple product (x) did Apple sell?" guessing game continues ad nauseaum. The various parties involved in trying to guess how many iPhones Apple sold during this past quarter varies by millions of units, which makes the whole exercise rather hard to take seriously. Considering we're talking about analysts here, "hard to take seriously" is pretty much par for the course. Kate Winslet May Take on Lead Female Role in Jobs Biopic (MacRumors) Source: Hollywood Chance it's true: None whatsoever If you haven't read former TUAW staffer Christina Warren's comprehensive reporting on the woes of the Steve Jobs film, you definitely should. Long story short: the film is in "turnaround" now, which is another way of saying "development hell," which is another way of saying the chances this film will ever get made, with anyone, are comfortably close to zero.
Rumor Roundup: The awful iPhone 7 concepts have begun
Some Genius Bars are being repurposed for the holidays, but other changes loom (9to5 Mac) Source: "People familiar with the matter" Chance it's true: 100 percent 9to5 Mac hasn't had very many BREAKING EXCLUSIVES since Apple's product launches a couple months ago, but its sources for stories like this are almost always right, which means they're probably leaks from Apple employees. In this case, "sources tell us some new retail stores are changing the Genius area slightly with no Genius Bar-specific signage or monitors displaying tips." That sounds really confusing from a customer-centered perspective, but okay. Bose reportedly planning to take on rival Beats Music with upcoming music streaming platform (9to5 Mac) Source: Job listing Chance it's true: 100 percent Just what we need: yet another music streaming service. Even better, yet another music streaming service brought to you by a luxury headphone brand. Personally, I'm holding out to see what Shure comes out with before I hop on the streaming bandwagon. This 'iPhone 7′ concept shows just how much better the iPhone can get (BGR) Source: Mockup Chance it's true: none We're not likely to see any obvious external design tweaks to the iPhone until late 2016, but bored graphic designers are already barfing out horrid mockups of the next-next-gen iPhone's design. I have good news, bad news, and the worst news. The bad news is we have close to two more years of this nonsense to look forward to. The worst news is there is no good news. Gene Munster predicts! This time, Apple television coming in 2016 (TUAW) Source: Some analyst Chance it's true: Zero. Zilch. Nada. Gene "Where's my Apple HDTV" Munster comes out with yet another non-newsworthy prediction of the oft-rumored but never seen Apple HDTV. This time, it's definitely, absolutely, positively coming in 2016. He promises. No really, baby, it won't be like the other times. I can change! I'll give TUAW a pass for publishing this rumor because my colleague spent the entire article making fun of it. I won't give my colleague a pass, however, because I'm workin' this side of the street, see? *smack*
Rumor Roundup: Three takes on a Samsung rumor
With only one new rumor since the last roundup, it's once again a good opportunity to examine how three different rumor blogs reacted to the same information. Production of next year's A9 chip reportedly underway, Samsung may take 100% of orders (9to5 Mac) 9to5 Mac's headline tells you pretty much everything you need to know about this story... except for its source. Once again we have a Korean publication claiming that Korean-headquartered company Samsung stands to make great profits from creating components for Apple products. Something about this source never sits quite right with me. I'd still be skeptical if it were a Chinese or Taiwanese "supply chain" source coming out with this information, but because Samsung is such a shady company in the first place, any time a Korean-based media outlet comes out with news like this, something about it just seems to scream "Samsung planted story." Rumor: Samsung begins building first 'A9' chips for Apple with 14nm process (AppleInsider) AppleInsider's headline is somewhat less detailed than 9to5 Mac's, but the article itself is much more detailed and informative. It grants not only a quite good high-level accounting of what's at stake for Samsung and TSMC in supplying Apple with parts, but also what's at stake for Apple when it decides which supplier to go with for the next-gen iPhone's guts. The latest iPhone 6s rumor suggests Samsung will play a huge role (BGR) And way at the other end of the spectrum (as usual) is BGR. The headline tells you absolutely nothing until you click it, which is typical of BGR's new post-Buzzfeed model. The story itself is extremely light on details and offers no original insights of its own, unlike 9to5 Mac's accounting and even more unlike AppleInsider's fairly detailed analysis of what this all means for future iOS devices and the companies involved in their manufacturing. The summary: 9to5 Mac: Detailed headline, moderately detailed article AppleInsider: Moderately detailed headline, very detailed article BGR: Clickbaity headline, article very light on details All things considered, I'd say AppleInsider won this round.
Rumor Roundup: A fool's game
Foxconn Robots Proving Unsuitable for iPhone Assembly, Updated Versions in the Works (MacRumors) Source: Chinese website Chance it's true: Who knows As with all rumors related to Apple's supply chain, there's no real way for us to ever know whether this is true or not. Certainly not unless Apple or Foxconn take some reporters on a tour of the factories... which is obviously not gonna happen. Apple Store to restart Bose product sales after abrupt removal, report says (AppleInsider) Source: "People familiar with the matter" Chance it's true: 100 percent This actually happened a few days after this rumor came out, so it looks like an internal leak from within Apple. WAIT, WHAT? How future iPhones could actually copy the Fire Phone (BGR) Saved you a BGR: Apple filed a patent for a 3D display on the iPhone. We normally don't bother reporting on the vast array of patents Apple applies for, simply because there's no guarantee any of them will actually make their way into a shipping product. This makes predicting future feature sets of Apple products based on patent applications a fool's game. Of course, a fool's game is the only game BGR knows how to play anymore. Rumor: Apple Watch set to begin mass production in January (AppleInsider) Source: Taiwanese website Chance it's true: 30 percent (at most) Even AppleInsider calls this rumor "questionable," noting that the same source says the next-gen iPhone was supposed to debut in early spring of 2015 but has been "delayed." Looks like we can throw another log on the "unannounced Apple product has been delayed" bonfire of stupid.
Rumor Roundup: A tale of three rumor blogs
Occasionally it's instructive to take a look at how various rumor blogs react to the same rumor... such as the recent rumors of a new 4-inch iPhone model in 2015. Unlikely supply-chain rumor suggests a new 4-inch iPhone model next year (9to5 Mac) 9to5 Mac follows its usual schtick of calling a rumor "unlikely" but still putting it in front of the masses anyway. They at least went the extra mile and tracked this rumor past the Japanese site that re-reported it; it appears that Digitimes is the original source of this rumor, which should have been a red flag to anyone trying to determine its accuracy. This is about the closest the reporting on this rumor came to investigative journalism, however. Sketchy Rumor Claims Apple Planning New 4-Inch iPhone for 2015 (MacRumors) MacRumors calls this rumor "sketchy" in the headline, something they do only for the most plainly "not gonna happen" rumors. So some bonus points awarded for healthy skepticism. They didn't track this story down to its original source, however, so in the end his is just straight up re-blogging of someone else's re-blogging of a terribly-sourced rumor. This is the most shocking iPhone 6s rumor yet (BGR) Last (and definitely least), we have BGR with an overwrought, clickbaity headline. So far, so BGR. Unsurprisingly, BGR also didn't bother tracking this story down to its original (terrible) source, and there isn't even a whiff of skepticism anywhere to be found in this piece. BGR basically re-reported this rumor as though it were established fact, then wrapped it in a candy shell of SEO garbage and hamfisted clickbaiting. To sum up... 9to5 Mac: Faint stabs in the general direction of skepticism and investigative journalism MacRumors: A dash of skepticism, but still lazy re-blogging in the end BGR: Straight-up tabloid behavior at its nauseating worst In other words, business as usual. Apple is already preparing for 2015's massive iPhone 6s launch – and so should you (BGR) Source: Taiwanese website Chance it's true: 30 percent The greatest thing about these stories about how the production split will work out between Pegatron versus Foxconn is this: in the end, the breakdown of percentages doesn't matter one bit. We'll never hear or see anything like actual proof of these claims, so the rumor blogs can literally say pretty much whatever they want on the subject, for as long as they want, and it won't matter a bit if they're wrong. Which they will be.
Rumor Roundup: Crescentgate-gate
UBS survey finds 10% of consumers want a smartwatch, expects 24M Apple Watch sales in fiscal 2015 (AppleInsider) Source: Some analyst Chance it's true: 30 percent Yet another analyst throws his hat into the "this is how many of (unreleased Apple product) will be sold" ring. Is this worth paying attention to? Nope. Did all the rumor blogs pass it on anyway? Yep. Is answering your own questions annoying? Yep. Do I care? Nope. Here's one more iPhone 6 problem you should be aware of (BGR) Source: The latest overblown iPhone 6 "scandal" Chance it's true: Who knows Saved you a BGR: the tech tabloid's latest attempt to smear the iPhone 6's reputation comes in the form of "Crescentgate." This apparently involves the iPhone 6 FaceTime camera shifting around inside the handset far enough for it to affect image quality. "It's not clear how widespread this 'Crescentgate' issue is at this point," BGR notes. This, of course, didn't stop them from announcing this with the sort of doom and gloom tone they also used for "Bendgate" and "Memorygate" and several other completely overblown and overhyped "flaws" with the iPhone 6. The ongoing voodoo-like attempts to call forth some kind of Antennagate-level scandal involving the iPhone 6 would be amusing if they weren't simultaneously so puerile. Samsung declines to shake up management amidst shrinking smartphone profits (AppleInsider) Source: Samsung Chance it's true: ...Samsung This seems to roundly contradict a rumor from last week suggesting a changing of the guard of Samsung executives. Swing and a miss on that one, Wall Street Journal. Better luck next never. Video Shows Size of 12.2-Inch 'iPad Air Plus' Mockup Next to iPhones, iPads, and MacBook (MacRumors) Source: Mockup Chance it's true: Who knows So apparently we have reached the "bored/underemployed graphic designers produce mockups of rumored Apple products" phase of the rumor cycle. Hooray. Look for approximately 1358 similar stories to surface over the coming months. New products, "innovative services" lead Barclays to hike Apple price target by 17% to $140 (AppleInsider) Source: Some analyst Chance it's true: 30 percent More analyst tea leaf reading over Apple's purported future performance. These guys are usually all over the place; they're basically playing a game of financial Battleship, throwing out random numbers in the hopes of getting a hit.
Rumor Roundup: 'iPad Air Plus'
It's very slim pickings for rumors this time around - just one, in fact - presumably because all the analysts are still in turkey comas. HUGE LEAK: Major details on Apple's gigantic 'iPad Air Plus' revealed (BGR) Source: Japanese website Chance it's true: 30 percent Macotakara (a Japanese website) found supposedly leaked blueprints for the supposed "iPad Air Plus," which is apparently what the rumor blogs will be calling the long-rumored "iPad Pro" from now on. Details offered are unusually specific, with exact dimensions (down to the tenth of a millimeter). The device will supposedly debut the next-gen A9 chipset and have four speakers arrayed around its edge so you'll have full stereo sound no matter how you hold it. I've always been inclined to be skeptical about the possible existence of this device, given that the only source for it until now has been analyst rantings and ravings. While it's entirely possible this blueprint is fake, I can't help but recall a time about eight months ago when iPhone 6 blueprints leaked. They, too, seemed very probably fake at the time, but they turned out to be 100 percent accurate in the end. My initial thought was that an iPad that big might turn out to be unwieldy. Then I realised I'm typing this on a nearly seven year old 17-inch MacBook Pro which is probably 10 times bigger volumetrically and five times heavier than this supposed "iPad Air Plus" would be. Granted, I don't hold this behemoth MacBook in my hands as I use it, so "unwieldy" may well be a relative term. As for whether or not it makes sense for Apple to build this rumored device, I'm prepared to keep an open mind just this once. Call it a case of the holiday spirit. 'Tis the season, or something.
Rumor Roundup: 'Reportedly'
They don't celebrate Thanksgiving in the country I live in, but I figured I'd deliver some turkeys to your doorstep anyway... including, unfortunately, some that were stuffed and baked right here at TUAW. Samsung reportedly mulls leadership change amidst disappointing Galaxy S5 sales (TUAW) Source: "People familiar with the matter" Chance it's true: Who knows New rule: any time your headline contains the word "reportedly," there's a pretty good chance the story is total BS. Meanwhile, the odds that the Wall Street Journal has an accurate line on what's taking place behind the scenes at Samsung are probably equal to its accuracy record for all things Apple. In other words, not very high at all. iCloud reportedly held back by 'deep organizational issues' within Apple (9to5 Mac) Source: "People familiar with the matter" Chance it's true: Who knows Here's the second "reportedly" of the week. This time, it's "reportedly" the lack of a centralized iCloud team at Apple that's making the service... we'll use the polite phrase, "not living up to its potential" rather than what probably comes to many people's minds when they think of iCloud. Of course, it could simply boil down to the fact that getting this stuff right is difficult, and Apple's reach has seemingly exceeded its grasp in all things software-related as of late. It certainly makes for a juicier story to pin it down to "deep organizational issues" though. Analyst predicts Apple will sell 71.5M iPhones in Q4 (TUAW) Source: "Accurate" analyst Chance it's true: 40 percent Guys. Guys. I seriously don't know how this slipped through the cracks and ended up getting published, but please don't make this a regular thing. It's really difficult to maintain a reputation for publishing only actual, verified news about Apple when stuff like this starts showing up. "Analyst says thing about Apple" is not real news. Don't go forgetting that. Apple to Reportedly Stop Production of iPhone 5c in 2015 (MacRumors) Source: Taiwanese website Chance it's true: 100 percent Aaaand it's the third "reportedly" this week. Guess what? Duh, of course Apple is going to stop selling the iPhone 5c this year. But it's not because of some cooked-up story about "disappointing" sales. It's because it's going to be replaced by the next-gen version, with Touch ID and the internal components of an iPhone 5s. Apple Reportedly Relying More Heavily on Samsung for iPhone 6 and Apple Watch Components (MacRumors) Source: Korean website Chance it's true: 50/50 Here's "reportedly" number four of the week. Samsung itself is so shady that any time I see a report like this coming from Korea, claiming that Samsung is going to strongly benefit from manufacturing parts for Apple, I can't help but doubt its veracity. What proof do we have that Samsung itself isn't the source of this story? Foxconn Rumored to Produce Sapphire Displays for Apple's Next iPhone (MacRumors) Source: Taiwanese website Chance it's true: None I have only one thing to say about this:
Rumor Roundup: Things that make you go 'Hmmm'
10% of owners of iPhone 5 & up will buy an Apple Watch, predicts Morgan Stanley (9to5 Mac) Source: some analyst Chance it's true: 30 percent at most Morgan Stanley joins the fray of analysts desperate to be FIRST! to predict sales for a product that hasn't even shipped yet. Left unexplained in this article is why a bunch of analyst tea-leaf reading about a product with no firm shipping date qualifies as anything even close to real news. Foxconn investing $2.6B into new display factory that will exclusively supply Apple (AppleInsider) Source: "People familiar with the matter" Chance it's true: 50/50 It all sounds plausible enough on the surface, but the source of this report (Bloomberg) apparently yanked all reference from Apple in the headline after the fact, which definitely makes one grab one's chin and mutter, "Hmmmm." Strong demand for iPhone 6 & 6 Plus persists, prompts Piper Jaffray to raise Apple price target to $135 (AppleInsider) Source: Analyst Gene "Dude, where's my Apple HDTV?" Munster Chance it's true: none Gene Munster is notorious for two things: years of inaccurate predictions about an Apple HDTV, and years of inaccurate predictions about Apple's supply chain, sales, financial performance... basically, if it has to do with Apple, he's gotten it wrong. Along with Brian "iRing" White and Peter Misek, he's among an elite cadre of analysts whose predictions I never, ever take seriously. KGI: Apple to sell over 71M iPhones in holiday quarter, followed by sub-50M to start 2015 (9to5 Mac) Source: "Accurate" analyst Ming-Chi Kuo Chance it's true: 40 percent It'll be interesting to revisit these numbers later on to find out how far off the mark this "accurate" analyst turns out to be. Not only that, I'm interested to see how far into 2015 we'll get before his prediction of Apple ceasing sales of the iPhone 5c turns out to be correct. My prediction: September or so. Right around the time the iPhone 5-based guts of the 5c get replaced with guts based on the 5s. Mmm, guts. Must be almost time for Thanksgiving...
Rumor Roundup: Return of the analysts
Just when I was starting to think all the analysts had gone into hibernation for the year, a few have crawled out of the woodwork to make their typically barmy, nonsensical predictions. RBC raises Apple price target to $120, predicts Apple Watch will earn $10B in first-year revenue (AppleInsider) Source: Some analyst Chance it's true: 30 percent (at best) Some analyst throws a bunch of numbers against a wall to see what sticks. AppleInsider reports this as though it constitutes real news. Guess what? It doesn't. Samsung Chosen to Supply 80 Percent of Apple's Future A-Series Chips for iOS Devices (MacRumors) Source: Korean website Chance it's true: 50/50 There's nothing fishy at all about a Korean source reporting a multi-billion dollar deal involving a Korean company as notoriously shady as Samsung. Nope, I'm certain this reporting is totally on the up-and-up and hasn't been influenced at all by Samsung. Not a chance. Move along, nothing to see here. Apple Supplier Sony Debuts 21-Megapixel Image Sensor With Ultra Fast Autofocus, 4K HDR Video (MacRumors) Source: Sony Chance it's true: Well, 100 percent This isn't a rumor, given that Sony actually announced this component's existence. But no sooner did Sony do so than the wild speculation about this camera showing up in next-gen iOS devices started. This in spite of the fact that Apple has happily stuck with 8-megapixel camera sensors for the past four generations of iPhone. But sure enough... Apple May Introduce 'Biggest Camera Jump Ever' in Next-Generation iPhone (MacRumors) Source: "People familiar with the matter" Chance it's true: 90 percent or more Daring Fireball's John Gruber heard that the next-gen iPhone will have a decidedly major camera upgrade. If virtually anyone else said the same thing about a device that's nearly a year away from even being announced, I'd dismiss it out of hand. If it were an analyst saying it, I'd also spend a gleeful few paragraphs making fun of them. But since Gruber is legitimately well-connected and knows what he's talking about when it comes to Apple, I'm prepared to keep an open mind on this one. Apple analysts: Know what's really cool? A trillion dollar market cap (9to5 Mac) Source: Some analysts Chance it's true: On a long enough timeline? 100 percent. Probably. This just in: analysts predict the Sun will exhaust its supplies of hydrogen in 5 billion years and swell into a red giant, possibly engulfing Earth. More on this and other equally shocking long-term analyst forecasts as they come in. Apple reportedly bundling Beats Music with iOS next year (9to5 Mac) Source: "People familiar with the matter" Chance it's true: 50/50 Apple hasn't really done a whole lot with Beats since shelling out a few billion bucks for it earlier this year. Bundling it into iOS doesn't make a whole lot of sense unless Apple can make it a truly international service first, though. Sony Drops Aaron Sorkin's Steve Jobs Movie, Universal May Take Over (MacRumors) Source: Hollywood Chance it's true: Who knows This film has now (reportedly) changed directors (multiple times), lead actors (ditto), and now film studios. Assuming any of this is actually true-which is always a big assumption with all things Hollywood-I'm not particularly optimistic about the odds of this film actually being made.
