ShawWu
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Daily Update for January 15, 2013
It's the TUAW Daily Update, your source for Apple news in a convenient audio format. You'll get all the top Apple stories of the day in three to five minutes for a quick review of what's happening in the Apple world. You can listen to today's Apple stories by clicking the inline player (requires Flash) or the non-Flash link below. To subscribe to the podcast for daily listening through iTunes, click here. No Flash? Click here to listen. Subscribe via RSS
Sterne Agee analyst: iPhone 5 demand 'remains robust'
Yesterday's Wall Street Journal report that Apple had cut iPhone 5 parts orders due to weak demand for the phone may have been incorrect. Shaw Wu, an Apple analyst with Sterne Agee known for his insightful questions during Apple earnings calls, said in a note to investors today that suppliers still show demand that "remains robust." Wu and several other Wall Street analysts believe that the rumored component order cuts have nothing to do with customer demand. Their take is that yields on the components have improved as suppliers gain experience, and Apple needs to place fewer orders to end up with the parts required to build the iPhones. He also stated that Apple shifting production between suppliers may have contributed to the appearance of cuts. The other analysts include Mark Moskowitz of J.P. Morgan, who said that the reports of lessened demand are "just noise," and Wells Fargo's Maynard Um, who was quoted as saying that any cuts are "not news." Sterne Agee is still bullish on Apple, with a "buy" recommendation on the stock and a price target of US$840. For Wu's part, he's forecasting sales of 47.5 million iPhones for the December quarter, above the market consensus of 46 to 47 million.
iPhone sales estimates creeping up from Wall Street analysts
Yesterday's announcement by AT&T that it's well on the way to selling a record number of smartphones -- many of which are most likely the iPhone 4S -- was encouraging to Wall Street analysts who are now bumping up their estimates of just how many of the phones Apple may sell in the December quarter. According to AllThingsD, two of the most bullish analysts are Brian White from Ticonderoga, who thinks Apple is on track to sell 29.9 million iPhones in the quarter, and BTIG Research's Walter Piecyk, who one-upped White with an estimate of 30 million. Piecyk made his optimistic statement back in August, before the iPhone 4S was even announced, so it will be impressive indeed if his crystal ball proves to be the most accurate. Those 29.9 million iPhone sales predicted by White represent an 84 percent increase over the previous quarter ending September 30, 2011. iPhone sales were down from analyst estimates for that quarter, primarily because many consumers held off on purchasing so that they could get the next big thing from Apple. Shaw Wu from Stern Agee raised his estimate of iPhone sales from 26 million to 28 million, while Maynard Um of UBS went completely bullish and changed his number from 28 million to 30 million. Um thinks sales could be even higher than that, based on unprecedented demand in the Asia Pacific region. None of this, of course, is going to surprise Apple CEO Tim Cook, who stated during the October earnings call that "We're very confident that we will set an all-time record in the December quarter for iPhone sales. We -- in our wildest dreams, we couldn't have gotten off to a start as great as we have on the 4S."
Rumor: CDMA iPhone to be carrier exclusive with Verizon
Analyst Shaw Wu sent out his latest investor note on Monday, and unsurprisingly, he says an iPhone for Verizon Wireless is imminent, but he has added a new twist on this long-running story. Wu is claiming that Verizon will give Apple a larger than usual cut of sales in order to be the exclusive carrier for the CDMA iPhone, leaving Sprint and T-Mobile out in the cold. Wu claims his sources have told him that Android has begun to "lose some of its luster" as the number one carrier in the U.S., and BlackBerry OS6 doesn't look as promising as it once did. Most of the recent speculation has centered around an early 2011 launch for the first non-GSM iPhone, but it remains unclear if it would simply be announced at that time or actually go on sale then. Launching early in the year would either cut short Apple's typical annual product cycle for the iPhone and bring iPhone 5 to market early, or else it would leave a CDMA iPhone 4 with a short life cycle. Given the rapid pace of iteration for Android phones, either option for the CDMA iPhone is a possibility.
Apple bringing Blu-ray macs to Macworld?
This one's a bit of a no brainer: Apple's going to have to ship a next-gen disc drive at some point this decade, and Macworld 2008 is as good a place as any. Apple also has a friendly history with Sony, has Blu-ray happy Disney in its pocket and is on the Blu-ray consortium, so the Blu-ray format seems a bit of a shoo-in. Analyst Shaw Wu thought he'd made the prediction all the same, and while his track record isn't close to immaculate, we'd say he's got a pretty safe bet here. However, Shaw does say that there's a small possibility of Apple picking a hybrid drive just to stay clear of the format wars. Rumors of the drives come alongside word of a major overhaul of the Mac Pro internals, so it seems like the timing is right, but we'll really never know until Steve takes the stage and starts clicking us through the keynote. Wu also has word of a "MacBook mini" or "MacBook slim," iTunes rentals, some sort of "external HDD storage / dock / streaming device that can work with MacBook mini as well as Airport Extreme," and an Apple TV upgrade down the road to allow for more web content and perhaps a TV tuner. Shaw doesn't play the rumor game super conservative, but it sure is a lot more fun this way.
Apple prepping a cheaper iPhone? Probably.
Yeah, don't pretend like you didn't see this one coming. Completely unsubstantiated "market sources" rumors are making the rounds that Apple is already prepping a lower cost iPhone variant. Warning: completely mundane "analysis" follows. According to American Technology Research analyst Shaw Wu, "Apple needs to round out its iPhone product line at lower price points (similar to iPod) if it expects to replicate the success of its iPod with sales of 100 million units." Shaw Wu has been right on a couple Apple predictions in the past, but it doesn't take much to guess that Apple is currently at work on, or at least thinking about, a second generation of iPhone. Price drops also seem inevitable, and Shaw's predictions hold few surprises. He claims to have heard of "lower cost iPhone prototypes for release at unspecified future dates" from his sources, and maybe he has, but we're not going to start proclaiming Apple's dominion over all form factors and price points (as entertainingly conceptualized above) just yet.[Via The Raw Feed]
Analysts predict 4GB and 8GB iPod nanos with video
Take the following information with the usual grain of salt; when it comes to speculation about Apple's intentions, nothing is ever certain until the esteemed Mr. Jobs is on stage, product in hand, delivering the pitch. This time around, we have word from AppleInsider that American Technology Research analysts are reporting that their most recent "checks" indicate impending capacity doubling for the iPod nano line-- to 4GB and 8GB -- as well as the addition of "basic video capabilities," in models to be released during the "September quarter." If true, none of these developments would be all that shocking, as the current nanos already have sharp little color screens, and storage boosts are just a natural part of any digital audio player's lifecycle. ATR's Shaw Wu also seemingly contradicted earlier AppleInsider info when he cited an anticipated June/July release window for the as-yet-unannounced 13.3-inch Intel-powered Macbook laptop, which AI had previously suggested would be available sometime before June.
