theory
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Theory of cliodynamics uses science to predict history, sees violence erupt in cycles
Ever get the feeling that you've seen it all before? University of Connecticut researcher Peter Turchin has, and he (along with Russian partners Sergey Nefedov and Andrey Korotayev) has even crafted an entire scientific theory around the idea. Cliodynamics, as it's called, works on the view that broad trends of history occur in predictable patterns based on common factors like government strength, population size and social inequality. The surprise to Turchin is that violence outside of wars, at least in the US, triggers roughly every 50 years like clockwork: people rebel against a social crisis, but their children stay out of the fray and lead to the conditions that ultimately trigger another outbreak, like the 1970s civil rights and peace movements. Don't set your watch to cliodynamics just yet. Many historians are still skeptical, and even supporters note that one-off events or major wars fall through the cracks. If the theory pans out, however, science could be used to help governments do the right thing before they're made to do it at gunpoint. [Image credit: Steve Wilson, Flickr]
Raph Koster categorizes his best game design blog posts
If you're looking for an entry point into the voluminous back-catalogue of game design posts sitting on Raph Koster's web server, look no further than his newest entry, which serves as something of a greatest hits listing. For those unfamiliar with Koster, most gamers associate him with watershed sandbox titles like Ultima Online and Star Wars Galaxies, and he has also written a book called A Theory of Fun for Game Design. Koster first published his website in 1997, and some of his articles date almost as far back. He's arranged the links in what he calls a "rough reverse chronological order," so grab your favorite caffeinated beverage and settle in for a lengthy design-focused read.
The Amazing Gecko-Man: a superhero future made possible by probable science
There's no superhero origin story that begins with a bite (or a lick?) from a gecko. Plain 'ol wall climbing powers are, it seems, just not as sexy as wearing skintight suits, slinging webs and crawling up buildings. But if a few bright minds at the University of Southampton have anything to say about it, we could soon find ourselves walking like real-life lizard people (V, anyone?) and suctioning onto various surfaces using the managed properties of light. Lead researcher John Zhang and his UK team have predicted the existence of a force more powerful than gravity and the short-range pull of the Casimir effect, whereby plasmons (electromagnetic waves) captured on a metamaterial and the electrons on a metal resonate and form a bond of attraction. The resultant particle field is supposedly strong enough to "overcome the Earth's gravitational pull" and could even be used to alter the reflectivity of a material. Obvious military and aerospace applications aside, this invisible adhesive could also make its way into our everyday lives -- they just need to need to prove that it, y'know, actually exists first.
Where IPs go to die: a theoretical look at the belly of the online beast
The key to a secure online world of tomorrow? Why, that would be an internet that spends a bit more time padding its waistline at the protocol buffet. Researchers at the Georgia Institute of Technology have developed an evolutionary model, dubbed EvoArch, that simulates a survival of the IP fittest battle for the interweb's belly. Separated into six distinct layers, the top-to-bottom structure -- specific applications, application protocols, transport protocols, network protocols, data-link protocols and physical layer protocols -- reveals a fiercely competitive middle tier that often sees newer, non-specialized competition cannibalized in favor of an older, more dominant framework. The team created the theoretic model as a guideline for "architects of the future Internet... to increase the number of protocols in these middle layers," thus protecting the web from potential security vulnerabilities. Despite these proposed layer variances, however, further simulations of the model only churned out more midriff slimming eventualities. It seems our dear internet is destined for a damned if you do, damned if you don't hourglass-shaped evolution. Full PR after the break.
Cellphones are dangerous / not dangerous: cancer experts say 'What, me worry?'
If you haven't already gotten whiplash from the ongoing cellphone-cancer debate, a freshly released scientific review might just do the trick. In the paper, published Friday, a panel of experts from Britain, Sweden and the US conducted a thorough survey of previous studies, before concluding that existing literature is "increasingly against" the theory that cellphone use causes brain tumors in adults. The researchers also questioned the biological mechanisms underpinning this hypothesis, while acknowledging some lingering uncertainties, since data on childhood tumors and longer-term research are still lacking. The results come just a few weeks after the World Health Organization released its own literature review, in which it claimed that cell phones should be considered "potentially carcinogenic." But Anthony Swerdlow, a professor at Britain's Institute of Cancer Research and leader of the most recent investigation, said his group's work doesn't necessarily contradict the WHO, since the latter was simply seeking to evaluate cancer risks according to its own "pre-set classification system" -- under which things like pickled vegetables and coffee are also considered "potentially carcinogenic." Unfortunately, this doesn't mean that the debate will die down anytime soon, though Swerdlow expects more definitive conclusions within the next few years -- assuming, of course, that all of our brains haven't turned to oatmeal by then.
Samsung Vibrant passes FCC again with AT&T 3G bands: a pre-acquisition tester? (updated)
This is out of left field, but bear with us -- it all makes sense, in a creepy, business-y sort of way. First, the facts: a Samsung SGH-T959P just got FCC approval with 3G support on the 850 and 1900MHz bands (it might also support 2100MHz, but we can't tell from the documents we've skimmed in the filing -- and since it's not a US band, the FCC doesn't really care anyway). T-Mobile's original Samsung Vibrant was the SGH-T959, and the Galaxy S 4G was the SGH-T959V -- so you can imagine that this is another device in the same vein. Samsung SGH product codes that start with "T" and end with "9" are T-Mobile devices... but if this is for T-Mobile, where's the AWS 3G support? So here's our wild theory: T-Mobile and AT&T may have fast-tracked a T-Mobile-branded device -- in this case, an offshoot of the Galaxy S 4G -- with HSPA+ for AT&T's bands. AT&T has mentioned this week that one of the first fruits of its planned acquisition of T-Mobile USA will be a roaming agreement that allows T-Mobile customers to use AT&T's network, and naturally, that would require devices that support AT&T's spectrum; interestingly, this roaming agreement is going into effect whether the acquisition completes or not, so these guys have to deal with it. We'd doubt that either of these carriers would be keen on releasing yet another variant of the original Galaxy S as we move toward mid-2011 here, but it's entirely possible that T-Mobile and AT&T employees could be getting these to test the network integration over the course of the year. Crazy, yes... but just crazy enough to be plausible. Update: Here's another thought. This could be an HSPA+ device (a la Galaxy S 4G) for a Canadian network, since several of those guys have also deployed Samsung devices that start with "T" and end with "9" -- the model number exclusivity to T-Mobile is strictly within American borders. We'll find out soon enough!
In defense of gear simulations
Josh Myers is not a scientist. The closest he's ever come to being one is winning the Science Fair in 8th grade and getting straight As in physics in high school. Despite these clear signs telling him to look for a career in science, he decided instead to go for a degree in English. His wallet hasn't forgiven him since. "Just sim it" is a phrase almost everyone who has played World of Warcraft in the past few years is familiar with. Should my enhancement shaman use Tunic of Failed Experiments or Voltage Source Chestguard? Sim it. How much of a DPS increase is the four-piece Firelord's Vestments bonus? Spreadsheet it. How much DPS am I losing since I can't afford a Flask of the Winds on my hunter? SIM IT! I'll be the very first to say that saying "just sim it" isn't a constructive thing to say. Beyond being slightly rude, it doesn't explain why simming is such a good idea. However, while I find "just sim it" to be in poor taste, the actual act of simming or spreadsheeting gear choices is a really good idea. This post aims to address why we encourage spreadsheeting your DPS choices.
Futurama writer devises (and proves) math theorem to save The Professor's and Amy's mind
Sure, you could prove as-of-yet-unsolved mathematical problems (why hello there, P≠NP), but where's the entertainment value for the rest of us? Cue Futurama staff writer Ken Keeler, who used his PhD in "Math Blasters (in N Dimensions)" to create and verify a theorem that served as the crux of the plot for the recent Prisoner of Benda episode, wherein minds and bodies can only be switched in one direction and order must eventually be restored. Thus we are at a crossroads, dear reader: you can either brush up on your Group Theory and related permutations and expressions... or alternatively, just take a chill and enjoy a hilarious moment in science fiction. Next up, let's explore the ramifications of Heisenberg's Uncertainty Principle being disproven when a peanut butter sandwich fell into the large hadron collider, and by some stroke of luck scientists were able to simultaneously determine its momentum, position, and crunchiness.
WoW Moviewatch: Theory of a Death Knight is President of Blizzard
Do you remember Theory of a Death Knight? In the original movie, a death knight is totally rocking out to some hardcore metal when a blood elf stops the performance and demands to know why they must always perform such morbid music. The death knight takes this feedback exactly how you'd expect a hardcore awesome death knight to take it, and eventually finds himself a job. Now, it seems like Myndflame is telling the next step in Theory's journey with Theory of a Death Knight is President of Blizzard. This new installment is pretty short, and continues the tradition of Theory being a high intensity, high volume character with some strange ideas. It's a quick gag short, so don't try to read too much into it. I do find Theory becoming one of my favorite characters, though, so I hope he keeps popping up. Interested in the wide world of machinima? We have new movies every weekday here on WoW Moviewatch! Have suggestions for machinima we ought to feature? Toss us an e-mail at machinima AT wow DOT com.
TheoryCraft 101: Melee haste
TheoryCraft101 is here to introduce the more hardcore aspects of theorycrafting in a more casual approach. Have questions about attack speed? Do you know what PPM stands for? We have the answers right here. Another week, another article dealing with the math behind the scenes of World of Warcraft. Last week, the discussion focused around caster haste; this week will be a continuation of that as we delve into the world of melee haste. Haste follows a pretty different system between spells and melee attacks. When it comes to casters, haste influences how fast a spell is cast as well as the GCD for all abilities, allowing for the standard 1.5-second GCD to be reduced to 1 second. Haste for melee attacks, however, only increases the swing timer of auto-attacks and does not reduce the GCD on physical abilities. This has created a pretty big disparity between how melee value haste over casters, with casters generally favoring haste far more than melee classes. Blizzard has attempted to equalize this in some ways throughout Wrath of the Lich King by increasing the amount of haste that melee get per point of rating, yet that really hasn't made much of a difference. Cataclysm will attempt to address this disparity once again by increasing the resource gain of melee classes through haste. Obviously the finer points of this mechanic are not known to the community at large yet, and it is unlikely that Blizzard has the system fine tuned at this point anyway, so this article will not address that fact. It is something to remember for the future, though.
TheoryCraft 101: Caster haste
TheoryCraft101 is here to introduce the more hardcore aspects of theorycrafting in a more casual approach. Do you need to know how quickly you can get that spell to cast? We've got your answers right here! Welcome back once again to another installment of TheoryCraft 101. Past TheoryCraft 101 articles have already covered aspects of spellpower and melee hit; this week we are going to be discussing the ins and outs of caster haste. Haste, unlike other mechanics within the game, is a rather flat system. Haste is universal. There isn't a long list of exceptions, as you find with spellpower; every spell's cast time is changed by haste in the exact same way. Although boring, there is something beautiful in the simplicity of haste. The stat is so clean, the rules so set, that it is actually easy to predict. For how simple the mechanic is theoretically, it is far more convoluted in practice. Haste is an odd stat in that it is the only DPS stat people stack that doesn't directly increase the damage potential of their spells. A hasted Fireball will do exactly the same amount of damage as an unhasted Fireball; it will merely do it faster. For this reason, haste is something of a fickle mistress. Haste is beautiful in that is holds no RNG variables in theory. 1% haste is always 1% haste; a spell's cast time will always be changed by the exact same amount without fail.
TheoryCraft 101: The melee hit table
TheoryCraft101 is here to introduce the more hardcore aspects of theorycrafting in a more casual approach. Ever wondered what the deal is with hit rating? Is expertise giving you a bit of a headache? TheoryCraft 101 has all your answers and more, as we explore the depths of the melee hit table. Back by popular demand, and loads of begging on my part, TheoryCraft 101 is here once again to teach you the ins and outs of the fickle little systems that drive World of Warcraft. Due to numerous requests, we'll be tackling one of the more complex systems within the game, the melee hit table. For all of the hate that armor penetration has taken for being "too mathy," melee hit honestly isn't any better. Caster hit is very simplistic. You have a specific chance to miss a mob, and getting more hit mitigates that amount. Melee hit holds very different values than that. Why just talk about it? Saying that it's complex is all well and good, but let's actually see it, shall we? As a preface to every TheoryCraft 101 installment, this post is going to contain calculations, figures, theoretical values/situations and other math-related information that, at times, can get a bit confusing. I will always attempt to simplify everything to the best of my abilities and explain the information as clearly as possible. After reading, if you still have any questions about the topic, then just ask. I'll do my best to address every question that you may have.
Theorycraft 101: Spellpower
Theorycrafting was once just a thing for the geekiest of geeks, the hardest of the hardcore, the most nerdiest, basement dwelling-est, living with mom-est gamers out there. As the World of Warcraft has grown in popularity and end-game raiding content has become more and more accessible, however, theorycrafting has become something that is relevant to the everyday casual gamer as well. Through sites such as Elitist Jerks, more and more people have become exposed to the deeper mathematical concepts that drive this game. Such sites, however, are often fraught with convoluted, difficult-to-follow information and strings of calculations that can be hard for users to understand. I will admit that there are many times when the math some of the players post in these places can go way over my head. To that end, there have been many easy-to-use tools developed in order to simplify the aspects of theorycrafting into a practical application that players can use. Things such as Rawr or Simcraft have become a very popular source of information regarding theoretical data and how it can be used within the game, giving access to information such as talent spec choices and gearing upgrades. Even still, such programs are not without their flaws, and often the theoretical mechanics used by such programs can be rather confusing to follow. It's my wish to bring theorycrafting to the general population in a different approach. Instead of merely tossing out information at random with the hopes that someone out there will grasp the concept, I wish for people to understand the basics that fuel theorycrafting by presenting it in such a way that is easy to understand. To that end, I wish to present the theory behind the mathematical calculations for spellpower. How does spellpower scaling function? What effect does the stat really have for increasing a player's power? Why does spellpower behave the way that it does? These are all questions that form the basic principles behind theorycrafting, and it is the allure of figuring such things out that draws people to theorycrafting. As the game becomes more accessible to more people, so too should the theory that drives it.
Report: Console life cycles grow as big three share the market
We've heard from a few non-Microsoft sources that the Xbox 360 is heading for an extremely long console cycle, but last week's CES found Microsoft saying exactly that. David Hufford of Xbox product management mentioned during a briefing that the 360 is "the console of the long future for us," and that he doesn't yet know "if we're at the midpoint" of the console's timeline. Which sounds pretty amazing, since the console actually released in 2005, but the numbers support that theory, with adoption only recently passing the rates of the last generation. In other words, the mad dash from 8- to 16- to 32- to 64-bit and beyond gaming has apparently relaxed for the moment, and Jack Schofield of The Guardian says it's because all three major companies at the moment (Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo) have all achieved a viable place in the market. Without feeling constant pressure to outdo each other, the major console companies can settle into their own niches and expand their own markets. Which, as Hufford said at CES, is exactly what Microsoft is planning to do in the coming "Natal era."
More on Black Arrow and Lock and Load
The Hunter's Mark examined what's going on behind the Hunter talent Lock and Load a little while ago, and last week Atkallen did a follow up post getting down into the nitty gritty of the numbers a little further. Essentially, he charges that you're looking at an LnL proc for about 2-4% uptime during a four hour raid -- that is, for about 4% of the time, you've got Lock and Load giving you free Explosive Shots with no cooldown and no mana cost. And as he says, that's the "applied" time -- since LnL disappears as you use it, odds are that the real time you have it available will be much less.He also tracks that time from 3.1 to 3.1.2, and says he's found data that confirms his previous theory: that it was more than the tooltip that needed changing during the last patch. Before the patch, he was looking at 11% uptime during three Ulduar fights, and after the patch, that's dropped down to 6%. Blizzard said they were only changing the tooltip, but that doesn't seem to be the case.Finally, he stands by a notion that a lot of our commenters debated last time: that LnL is proccing more after 3.1, even though the mechanics claim that it shouldn't be. I haven't had a lot of personal playtime with it post-patch, but there are two different conclusions to take away here. First: LnL, in conjunction with Black Arrow and Resourcefulness, is a definite force for DPS in the Survival spec no matter how often it's proccing. And second: there still may be something else going on here behind the scenes -- the removal of the cooldown is almost definitely a factor, and Blizzard may be playing around with the RNG more than they're letting on.
The perfect MMO concept is complete
GamerZines just wrapped up a blog series detailing all the ingredients that make their perfect MMO and they want your feedback. They also plan to pitch these ideas to various MMO studios and eventually compile it all as a full feature in their free MMO magazine, aptly titled MMOZine.We wrote about parts one through five a couple weeks ago and since then they have come out with a sixth part. In part six, the author suggests "next-gen" MMOs should become more homogenized in terms of their feature sets. Why re-invent the wheel when you can copy a perfectly working system already, they ask. Somehow, we don't think everyone's going to agree with that one.If nothing other than one man's (or magazine's) opinion, this series highlights a valid point about game development. Because everyone has different gaming tastes, developers are bombarded with strong opinions from all sides. "You should focus on hardcore raiding." "No, you should focus on casual questing." "I want to experience epic large-scale PvP." "But I want your PvP to be solo-friendly!" That has to be difficult, unless you're so focused on your game's vision that you can tune out most of the background noise.
Gamerzines blog series on crafting the perfect MMO
Gamerzines doesn't want to sound arrogant, but they're pretty sure they can design the perfect WoW-killer and because they're such nice folks, they're going to spill the beans in a series of blog posts. There are five parts so far that include their must-have elements for the next best MMO since [insert your favorite MMO title here]. Part 1 - User generated content that passes through a quality filter Part 2 - Persistent world and good story Part 3 - Crafting and economy 2.0 (see EVE Online's industry) Part 4 - Old school RPG customization system (stats, appearance, gear, etc.) Part 5 - Real world simulation This is obviously a pretty bold series if it aims to change the MMO landscape, but the ideas do seem interesting even though none of them are exactly novel so far. That said, they are starting to fit together nicely as newer parts of the series come out.For instance, allowing players to have a visible and lasting impact on the game and then mixing it with the concept of a more real world simulation could produce interesting outcomes; e.g., too much hunting of one particular species could throw the ecosystem and biodiversity of the surrounding area out of balance.[Via: Warcry]
Ghostcrawler on the mechanics behind Armor Penetration
There is a great thread over on the Damage Dealing Forums started by a Rogue about the mechanics of the Armor Penetration cap/observed effectiveness. Armor Pen is a statistic that will allow an attack to ignore a given amount of armor.The thread and the contents inside it are notable in that it is, by my recollection, the first time a Blizzard employee has given out the complete rundown of an in-game formula. While there have been hints and comments about how certain statistics impact the game from patch notes and game designer posts in the past, there has never been a "step a, step b, step c" like algorithmic definition to all those stats contained within the black box of theorycrafting.In giving out the computations behind Armor Penetration, Ghostcrawler makes note to point out that Blizzard is not, and will not, get in a habit of delivering theorycrafting to players. They like the idea that players have to test out game mechanics, and that while the starting and end results are known, what happens in the middle of combat isn't written in stone. In the case of the Armor Penetration rating, they released it due to quite a bit of (somewhat) inaccurate information out there.The armor penetration formula, and an example, after the break.
WoW Moviewatch: Theory of a Death Knight
Warning: Not safe for work! While it's all in a good fun, there's definitely cursing and loud, riotous music.This is the new short video from Myndflame, titled Theory of a Death Knight. Rumor has it that the creator went to herculean effort to get the video published. While I hate to see someone go to that kind of pain, I do have to say that it was worth it. "Theory" is one of those rare unique pieces that show why Clint is a stand-apart machinimator.The premise of the video is pretty simple. The scene opens to a Death Knight rocking out in a music studio. A Belf stops the performance, demanding to know why they always have to sing such harsh stuff. In the ensuing conflict, the Death Knight shortly finds himself fired. He then has to go out and make his own way in the big wide world.The first thing that struck me about this video was, ironically, the colors. While I've been exposed to vibrant imagery before, this whole thing felt like someone made it out of a paint bucket. They're bright, gorgeous, and vivid. The strong colors emphasized the frenetic pace of the Death Knight's music. The final gag in the movie had me laughing out loud. I wasn't expecting it, and it seemed like a perfect finale to the video.If you have trouble seeing the player above, you can catch the movie here.
World of Warcraft as evolutionary model
This must be the time of year for zany social theories about videogames. First, we heard that World of Warcraft might quality as being a religion. Then we heard that it might make for better citizens. And now, in an essay over at Gamasutra on the event of Charles Darwin's birthday, Noah Falstein suggests that games like World of Warcraft are actually models for evolution -- as we level up with experience points, our characters get stronger and more evolved, and we feel comfortable with that because that's exactly what we see happening in the world around us.Technically, of course, you can't model Darwin's theory of evolution with a single character -- evolution isn't about one individual getting better, it's about a process of natural selection in a species over a period of time. To really model evolution, you'd have to play hundreds of alts, and quit them each time you ran into a problem, leaving you with just a few characters that worked really well. Wait -- maybe some of you are already doing that.But Falstein makes good points in saying that certain elements of what Darwin described as evolution have shown up in game design as well -- the idea of specialization for certain character classes, tribal and national allegiances, and even the idea of memes (which are certainly widespread in WoW -- anyone ever heard of Chuck Norris or Leroy Jenkins?) are all drawn from Darwin's thinking and definitely embodied in the game we play.
