Entelligence: Are cellphones really replacing landlines?
posted Oct 21st 2004 2:53PM
Every Thursday Michael Gartenberg of Jupiter
Research contributes an interesting item of gadget-related research data. This week's factoid: Are cellphones really
replacing landlines?There's a lot of buzz about how cellphones will eventually replace wired landlines for most users but how great is that reality at the moment? In presentations to press and analysts over the past year, US wireless carriers have emphasized landline displacement as a major source of future growth. Carriers without ties to landline providers (AT&T Wireless, Nextel, and T-Mobile) in particular see this as an opportunity to steal business from landlines, and the carriers with landline ties (Verizon, Cingular, and Sprint) insist that the landline side does not bind their wireless efforts, and they will compete for this business as well. With wireless customer growth in the low single digits, US carriers have all announced that they are looking to landline displacement to add customers and keep minute usage up. The reality is somewhat different. According to a recent JupiterResearch survey, under six percent of US consumers today are actually using their wireless phone as their only phone. We also believe that number will not rise above 10 percent over the next 18 months, as consumers are happy with inexpensive, high quality landline service. Now, as for the replacement with landlines to VoIP connections… that's another story for another week.
Michael Gartenberg is vice president and research director for the Personal Technology & Access and Custom Research groups at Jupiter Research in New York. Contact him at mgartenberg@jupitermedia.com. His weblog and RSS feed are at http://weblogs.jupiterresearch.com/analysts/gartenberg
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Those are the reasons I have and keep a landline. No multiple tuner DirecTv without a land line, no TiVo without and no ADT security.
If I could get rid of the need for a land line for those I wouldn't need a land line.
My bill is basically $8 for the line. Plus a buck for a nonpublished number.
Then it's $11 in taxes and fees tacked onto it. The FCC and 911 recovery fees are particularly galling and obnoxious: almost a buck for 911 and nearly seven bucks for FCC fees.
Anything bad that happens to an RBOC is good. I wish nothing but ill will on every single one.
You realize that all those taxes are on your cell phone bill as well . . . The States are all trying to get even more taxes on there. Going VoIP will buy you temporary relief, but once it becomes a big enough business, out will come the taxes. A true pier-to-pier network is your only hope. I would imagine corporate lobbiests will try and make such things illegal, but they will still be out there.
i'm interested in the topic but this was less than an in-depth look at what is going on. i'd love to see some actual analysis and commentary actually backed up and fleshed out a bit more.
Been landline free for 3 months now. My biggest concern was reliable 911 service. Any landline hooked up with no service has 911 access (and that's all.) John raises good points, but once I upgraded my TiVo and picked up a network adapter, goodbye landline. Then again, we don't have ADT or DirecTV. When we go out and live the little 'un with a sitter, we just leave one cell at the house.
"A true pier-to-pier network is your only hope."
No way. You're not going to get people shell out for semaphore flags when the price of house boats and docking fees having been rising like the tide.
Sorry, I couldn't resist. Mods can delete this if you want.
been living landline free for almost 1 year. i love it (one less bill to pay), except for when a tower that serves my neighborhood went down and my phone worked everywhere EXCEPT in my house
I dumped QWest 4 years ago and haven't looked back. As far as I'm concerned, any services that require me to have a landline (ADT, etc) simply don't make the must-have cut. And as far as 911, remember you can call 911 from a cell, but they won't get your location. Important if you've been shot, are having a heart attack, etc. but it's not like you can't call them at all.
Just bought a new vehicle, and could not get financed until I had a land line. The dealer wouldn't even process the loan without one. Funny thing was, I never told them I was using a mobile phone - and my area code is one that is both landline and wireless. Frustrated, went to my bank & credit unions directly - told the same thing, even though I've had my accounts there with my mobile # on the account for years. Ended up lying to them and giving them a 2nd office number as my "home".
Haven't owned a landline in a few years. Cable modem for internet (allows DVR's btw). And my phone is always with me. I'll never go back.
In my corner of the world mobile phone use just surpassed landline usage. I moved out from my parents 10 years ago and I have never had a landline phone. My landline is in use though, for DSL.
According to this comment by Robert Cringely (http://www.pbs.org/cringely/pulpit/pulpit20041021.html - scroll halfway down), what the 6% stats miss is that a much larger percentage of young people only have mobiles, whcih means the numbers are likely to increase. "15 percent of university students have only mobile phone service". Actually what the article's about is arguing that polling, which can only be done to land lines, is inaccurate because the no mobile policy means that pollsters reach fewer young adults than older people.
Tried to go without a landline here in Toronto for a couple of years. Between dropped calls and poor quality gave it up. Inside my home reception, when available, was poor. Complaining to Bell only got the standard response of "We don't care, pay us and shut up".
I don't know how it is elsewhere but has anybody else noticed the hardest companies to call and talk to a real person are the phone companies?
My girlfriend and I live without a land line, and earlier this year we needed to find a roommate for our spare room. We used craigslist to find people, and when they came over we told everyone that we had no phone, so if they needed a land line they would have to get it themselves. Not a single person we talked to (about 10) complained -- they all had cell phones. Granted craigslist is not an accurate sample of the general population, but it goes to show that at least among my set (just-out-of-college types) land lines are definitely optional.
My mom, single and 65, moved to a new city about 4 months ago and decided to go land-line free. "Why pay for 2 phones, when my most important phone is my cell phone?" she said. I agreed, and she's loved it ever since. She thinks it's perfect.
But from my perspective, I've noticed that I call her less frequently now. I never know where she is, so about half of my calls are: "Hi, Mom, ...oh, ...can't talk right now?...,OK, I'll call you later..." because she is at a restaurant, a community meeting, the pool, driving, shopping, etc. At least when I called her at home before, I knew she was in a safe place when trying to race for the phone before voicemail picked up. And the calls always have that voice delay quality, like we can't quite talk at the same time and still hear each other at the same time, so our conversation feels shorter and stilted. Also, there's this timer hanging over our heads, like the cost of the minutes might not be worth the quality if our casual conversation, like calling for no reason, just to see how things are going.
How do ya'll feel when family calls you on the cell just to catch up? How do you say to a family member "Um, what's your point? Why did you call me?" Some people like to talk for 30 minutes before they're just warming into conversation mode.
I have both a land line and a cell, and tend to use the cell as my "quick change of plans" phone. If a sibling called me on my cell without a compelling, time-sensative reason, I would probably try to tell them "I'll call you back later." Similarly, I'm finding I'm a little uncomfortable calling people, including my mom, on their cell when I don't have a compelling, time-sensative reason to do so.
Just a few personal observations though, not a big deal.
In the UK it just isn't viable yet the price of mobile calls is just too high, when compared to landline costs. I would very much like to do away with my landline but it won't happen in the near future.
I feel that having a landline for 911 is essential because you may not have the time or ability to speak clearly with 911 operators but just dialing and dropping the landline without talking will get rescue, etc to your address. Further paranoia requires that the bedroom landline not be a cordless phone as you want this to work when the power is out.
Dan Mushrush
There are a few intriguing products just now hitting the market that allow a cellular phone to "power" the phones in your home. In other words, to be able to pick up any phone in your home and originate or answer a call through your cellular phone.
These devices require a phone-specific connector (make and model) as well as a little black box. The phone is connected to the black-box and, in turn, the black box is connected to the home's phone jack.
With this accessory, when your cell phone rings your home phone(s) ring and the Caller ID passes through to the home phone instruments. Likewise, when you want to place a call on your cell phone, all you have to do is simply lift any receiver on your home phone(s) and the call is generated through the cell phone.
This system works in one of two ways - you can either cut the cord for good and use the cell phone as your primary communications device or, you can add a second line to your home phone(s) to take advantage of the cellular benefits (free night and weekend calls and no long distance are a few) when you're at home.
This is truly a "follow-me" telephony system. If you're home, all phones ring. If you're not, line two is disconnected but leaves the benefit of a primary line for Tivo and Security System owners.
To that end, there is a "black-box" available to replace your home phone for dial-up services. It's reasonably new to the market and works fine for Tivo, et al but is a bit costly on the front end (about $500) and requires a separate cell number (add a line promos keep this cost lower than wireline).
The payback period for these last devices are about 12 - 24 months but then star to give a reasonable return.
The intersting note here - wireless handset manufacturers are loathe to want to give equipment builders access to the software of their phones to allow these "black-box" items. And, although they are widely available on the retail market (PhoneLabs, Telular, Merge, PhoneSocket), each is crippled by the specific lack of handset manufacturers that cooperate. Motorola seems to be the only exception.
Also, for those early adopters, Bluetooth versions of these accessories are now becoming available so handset-specific connectivity may not be an important cause in the future.
I have more information if anyone's interested.
There are a few intriguing products just now hitting the market that allow a cellular phone to "power" the phones in your home. In other words, to be able to pick up any phone in your home and originate or answer a call through your cellular phone.
These devices require a phone-specific connector (make and model) as well as a little black box. The phone is connected to the black-box and, in turn, the black box is connected to the home's phone jack.
With this accessory, when your cell phone rings your home phone(s) ring and the Caller ID passes through to the home phone instruments. Likewise, when you want to place a call on your cell phone, all you have to do is simply lift any receiver on your home phone(s) and the call is generated through the cell phone.
This system works in one of two ways - you can either cut the cord for good and use the cell phone as your primary communications device or, you can add a second line to your home phone(s) to take advantage of the cellular benefits (free night and weekend calls and no long distance are a few) when you're at home.
This is truly a "follow-me" telephony system. If you're home, all phones ring. If you're not, line two is disconnected but leaves the benefit of a primary line for Tivo and Security System owners.
To that end, there is a "black-box" available to replace your home phone for dial-up services. It's reasonably new to the market and works fine for Tivo, et al but is a bit costly on the front end (about $500) and requires a separate cell number (add a line promos keep this cost lower than wireline).
The payback period for these last devices are about 12 - 24 months but then star to give a reasonable return.
The intersting note here - wireless handset manufacturers are loathe to want to give equipment builders access to the software of their phones to allow these "black-box" items. And, although they are widely available on the retail market (PhoneLabs, Telular, Merge, PhoneSocket), each is crippled by the specific lack of handset manufacturers that cooperate. Motorola seems to be the only exception.
Also, for those early adopters, Bluetooth versions of these accessories are now becoming available so handset-specific connectivity may not be an important cause in the future.
I have more information if anyone's interested.
I was lucky enough to get the att charter plan a few years back which gives me unlimited roaming, minutes, long distance for only 99/mo.. with the unlimited minutes i've been without a landline for almost 2 years now.. the only times i wish i had one are when my phone battery is dead.. but a charger is always near by.. as for tivo.. wireless card hack from 9thtee.. and directv doesnt require a phone line unless you plan to order PPV from what i understand..
I was lucky enough to get the att charter plan a few years back which gives me unlimited roaming, minutes, long distance for only 99/mo.. with the unlimited minutes i've been without a landline for almost 2 years now.. the only times i wish i had one are when my phone battery is dead.. but a charger is always near by.. as for tivo.. wireless card hack from 9thtee.. and directv doesnt require a phone line unless you plan to order PPV from what i understand..
Can anyone tell me, (please explain in plain simple English), if it possible, yet, to fax to a landline fax number from a peripheral fax machine and a cell phone? What devices or software are necessary to do this? I have a satellite high-speed ISP and don't need the landline phone for for anything other than faxing. Is there a way to fax to any fax number using an external fax machine, without a wired landline?
Landlines are going the way of the outhouse. You COULD use one, but when you have indoor plumbing, why? When you can have all the features of the "new thing" with none of the inconvenience or costs of the old thing, dump the old thing. I have been without a landline for about 2 years and have had no problems due to that fact. 80% of my family (and many of my customers) are on the same carrier, so we can talk free of charge. I was paying nearly $80/month for standard service the last time I had a landline; that's almost as much as I pay for two phones on my wireless plan. As far as the "landline required for a loan" deal mentioned above; we got our home loan without a landline phone and we also bought a new Jeep without it.
My cable company offers high-speed 'net (no need for landline ISP). They also offer a DVR (no need for TiVo). Fax is so lame compared to email and PDF, so no landline needed for that either. My cell-phone can handle email, internet, photos, voice mail, text messaging, call forwarding/waiting, conference calls and more; I'd have to have a dozen peripherals (or pay a lot for the services) to do that with a landline (and I don't even have a top-of-the-line phone). Frankly if you need a landline for ANYTHING, you need to double-check your technology plan...