DirecTV prepping new digital video recorder, which spells trouble for TiVo
posted November 30th 2004 5:39AM
We knew we smelled trouble for TiVo when DirecTV said back
in August they were going to start offering their subscribers an alternate digital video recorder box to the
TiVo-based ones they currently offer. We thought maybe TiVo had a little bit of breathing room (their contract with
DirecTV doesn't expire until 2007), but DirecTV isn't waiting and has let slip that they'll have new DVR boxes powered
by software from NDS Group ready sometime in the first half of next year. They wouldn't say much about them, except
that they'll have all the same features that TiVo boxes have now (apart from the 30-second skip, which is technically a
hidden feature on TiVo anyway), as well as integrated video on demand and pay-per-view features. Maybe wouldn't be such
bad news if TiVo wasn't so dependent on DirecTV. They recently revealed that three-quarters of new subscribers last
quarter came from DirecTV, which means they're doing a poor job convincing people to buy their standalone boxes, and
once DirecTV dries up as source of customers (and it will, you best believe that they will push those new boxes hard,
since NDS Group is owned by the same parent company), they won't have much else to drive growth, except maybe that
deal with Netflix which may or may not pan out. We wish
we had an easy answer for what they should do to stay in business (remember that they've basically never made
money), but we don't. Creating a standalone product that
people could install on media PCs would be a good start, but that almost definitely wouldn't be enough to keep them
in business, and no cable company seems willing to put TiVo on their set-top boxes (they seem pretty happy with what
they've got already).
[Via TechDirt]
Comcast is going to be offering a dual-tuner HDTV box with DVR capability here in a week or so in Washington state. Washington state will be the first to have the dual tuners. And with dual tuners, this of course means you can record a program while channel surfing or watching another, even in HD. (At least I believe you'll be able to record HD to the hard drive - it is an HD decoder box so you should be able to).
Their HD-DVR box will run software that is tied into their new on-screen menu system, which is great. All of this along with their On-Demand catalog (which is growing) is a killer combo.
Once Comcast's On-Demand movie database really builds up, along with their HD-DVR (once it's available to everyone), you can say goodbye to TiVo and Netflix.
So long, TiVo. And Netflix, you can hang for awhile longer - but not too long.
Tivo needs to release a CableCARD based standalone HD unit ASAP. Do or die. In fact, it should be a dual CableCARD box to be real fun.
I love my Tivo Series 1 box.
I also have a dual tuner Sci-Atlanta 8300 HDTV DVR rented through my cable provider. While the HDTV is awesome, the software which runs the thing is so poor it is a joke. There is no comparison to Tivo. It's so bad that there are many senarios where you actually have to fast forward and rewind like a VCR tape - no skipping forward and no memory of where you left off in a movie if the box turns off between viewings (which it does every night automatically). I only use it to record HDTV content.
I'll never understand why Tivo does not license thier software to cable companies, even if they practically give their software away. They need market share.
Tivo Series 2 boxes offered very little improvements in technology. Still no HDTV, or even Dolby 5.1 sound. No component video outputs. No digital picture. Tivo is becoming a dinosaur.
Of course, Tivo no longer upgrades the software on the Series 1 boxes, either. They are making it too easy to switch.
The only thing Tivo does best is software and their comprehensive program guide, two areas where competition will surely catch up.
Sorry Tivo - I used to love ya.
Paul, I have the exaact same setup as you do: an HD DVR through Comcast, and a Tivo to record everything else.
It speaks WORLDS as to how horrendous the Scientific Atlanta is that I have to keep a Tivo to record my standard content and pay every month to do so.
I think that it's Tivo that dropped the ball by not getting into the same deals with Cable companies as they have done with DirecTV. While I have no idea what the business dealings were, it would strike me as odd that no cable company wanted the Tivo interface as their own. My guess is that Tivo wanted too much of something (money, control, whatever) and never was able to make a decent deal go through.
DirecTV/TiVo combos have always supported Dolby Digital 5.1.
With TWC (in MN), we've had a dual-tuner HD DVR for at least 8 months. However, the software is TERRIBLE. This seems to be a universal complaint everywhere, and I'm about to switch back to DirecTV just so I can get my HD DVR fix through a Tivo unit.
Heck, I even used to have an Ultimate TV (software was MS) box that is light-years ahead of what the cable companies are offering.
I agree that Tivo would be doing much better if they could offer a cableCARD box in addition to their current offerings. I also think that Tivo may still have some life (until 2007) if the boxes from DirecTV suck as bad as the ones from the cable companies.
What TiVo needs to do is build their standalone versions with a dual-tuner just like the DirecTV boxes have (I've got two of those).
Most people don't realize how important the dual-tuner is. I've gotten people interested in TiVo before to the point that they purchase a stand alone version. They like it but it's not as big a change is TV watching because their TiVo can only record one show at a time - what happens if you've got two shows on at the same time or you want to watch live TV for some reason (can't think of one but you know what I mean). For some reason TiVo has avoided building their stand alones with a dual-tuner and maybe it time to add that? They may have a deal with DirecTV so that only the DirecTV boxes have them...I don't know but makes some sense I guess.
It was my understanding that Directv's new DVR NDS DVR unit will be "low end" and more limited, while the Tivo units will be considered more "premium". Not that it's a big deal. These changes are more than 2 years out and I expect a lot of changes in that time. Plus if Tivo continues down the road of "advertisers are more important than subscribers", I will have no problem switching to something else.
Why is this such big news? Dish Network has had a DVR / satellite receiver combo for more than a year. Dish is also a better service provide than Direct ever was. I got DVR last year and it works well most of the time. Once every few months the embedded windoze OS heads south and I have to power off and on. Other than that, works fine.
I recommend buying a DVD burner to go with it. I offload programs onto DVD-R/DVD-RAM from the PVR since it only has 100GB of storage.
The TiVo brand is very recognizable in my opinion. I see them selling out to some big company for this purpose.
The home DVR market is kind of a joke now in my opinion. In Tivo and ReplayTV's heydey they were great, but noone seemed to take the time to both look into the future or to read their markets well.
I too have a series 1 standalone Tivo and hopefully will be getting a HD DVR today from Adelphia(I know, but at least they're being sold so I won't have to deal with their crap anymore). We'll see how it goes. I know the software will suck, but as long as I can record HD shows with it I'll be happy.
Tivo dropped the ball big time with the series 2. They forgot why people bought Tivo's and made some sort of Dr Moreau DVR. An odd mix of media center and Tivo that doesn't really work well as either.
I'm sad to say it but Tivo will probably not last to the 2007 contract date, so it won't really matter. Unless they get smart and go back to what made the series 1 so great and make a series 3.
I did use the HD Dish DVR, and as soon as they carry useful HD content will replace my current Dish box with one of those and then get rid of my Tivo.
The real question is: How long can Tivo survive without making a profit? 61% of it's subscription base is with DirectTV users. Certainly DirectTV's addition of their own PVR isn't going to help Tivo become profitable. And there are many viable PC-based solutions on the market now, that are only getting better.
I wonder how long it will take before Tivo's investors become as critical to their business plan......
Aaron
[RANT/FLAME ON]
Have to agree with most of the posts here. NDS is probably going to stink (if it even ships. If you do more research there are a lot of reports that it was a bluff and that it's a lame duck.)
As for Paul's post (no. 3) Tivo is licensing their software. That's exactly what the Comcast deal was. Scientific Atlantic or Moto builds the boxes, Comcast sells them and Tivo just suppliest the software and directory.. (and "one more thing" THE ADs!)
Yeah, Tivo is pulling a Steve Jobs and end running Madison Avenue and the whole TV Ad infrastructure by allowing customers to 30 Second Skip the traditional ads while being served up MUCH more LOCAL and RELEVANT ads right off the hard drive... There can also be embedded links to trailers, songs, etc which are again served off the local hard drive. THis will be huge because it's much closer to the GOOGLE model of providing highly targeted ads and content to back them up. As a result happy advertisers pay a much higher cost per impression. That's why this week Proctor and Gamble said they were reducing their TRADITIONAL ad spending on television. TO refocus on interactive (incluging TIVO.)
While Rupert is trying to outsmart himself by playing around with also-ran's like NDS, Tivo is getting ready to become the iTunes Music Store of TV along with it's deal to rent NetFlix movied RIGHT over the network. No wonder Apple briefly considered buying them. No wonder GOOGLE is considerign partnering or acquiring them.
Fact is, Rupert Murdock's DirecTV is toast... they bet the farm on NDS... their "Tivo Killer" competitor. They figured they were Tivo's biggest customer so they'd get a little tough and "rough up" poor little Tivo. But now that Comcast has come in and said they'll ship a new box with a Tivo Compatible chipset to any of their 22 Million sunscribers DirecTV is looking a little dumb.
How clueless can one overbearing monopoly get? Just ask Rupert!