TiVo Deathwatch
posted February 8th 2005 2:27PM
Let's get one thing straight: we love TiVo. We've been rooting for them for them since we got our first box (an original 14 hour Series 1 box that we still use to this day) and it's not that we don't want them to stick around, but we think it's time to face facts and admit that this company is in some serious trouble. Nah, their demise is not a foregone conclusion, but given events of the past few months (and as much as it tears us up inside to do this), we're launching a TiVo deathwatch.
Here are the facts: They've had two senior executives leave in the past month. DirecTV, which drives most of their subscriber base, is more or less just letting the clock run out on the rest of their deal. TiVo's stock is trading near its 52-week low (it's around $3.75 a share today, a year ago it was trading north of ten bucks), and they continue to lose money quarter after quarter. Except for their acquisition of Strangeberry last year and some vague plans about launching a video-on-demand service with Netflix, they've given no indication of how they're going to turn things around in the face of stiff competition from all sides.
Sorry TiVo, but we're declaring this deathwatch until further notice. We hope you'll seriously turn things around-you know what you need to do. We'll be updating this post periodically to reflect new developments until TiVo either declares bankruptcy, gets acquired, or (hopefully) become consistently profitable.
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September 30, 2004 - TiVo announces plans to team up with Netflix on a video-on-demand service.
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November 22, 2004 - TiVo announces results for the quarter ending October 31st. They lose "only" 33 cents a share, three times what they were losing a year earlier.
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January 6, 2005 - DirecTV, TiVo's primary source of (new) subscribers with 2 of their 3 million customers, announces that it will introduce its own integrated digital video recorder. Their contractual agreement ends in 2007, and is not expected to be renewed.
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January 12, 2005 - TiVo CEO and co-founder Mike Ramsay steps aside as CEO. He will remain on as chairman.
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February 1, 2005 - TiVo president Marty Yudkovitz resigns.
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February 2, 2005 - TiVo's stock slumps to a 52-week low.
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February 18, 2005 - TiVo breaks three million subscribers.
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March 15, 2005 - TiVo cuts a deal to put their software on Comcast's DVR set-top boxes. Financial terms are not disclosed.
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May 5, 2005 - TiVo (and OEM Humax) are named in a patent-infringement lawsuit by EchoStar, owner of Dish Network.
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August 24, 2005 - TiVo reports first ever break-even quarter.
- April 12, 2006 - Surprising many, TiVo and DirecTV announce a three-year extension of their service contract for DirecTiVos, and agree not to work one another over on patent rights.
- April 13, 2006 - Jury votes in favor of TiVo in the EchoStar case. Award, supposedly totaling $74 million, does not proceed as EchoStar petitions judge to stay case while USPTO reviews the TiVo patent that is the crux of the case.
I'd read somewhere online that the main reason (at least prior to the dissolution of the partnership) that DirecTV didn't engage in all the TiVo networking functionality is that they simply didn't have the resources to become the help desk for every average Joe/Josephine trying to network their box. If that's true, I'm sympathetic to DirecTV as to the trouble for them that would ensue by doing so, but at the same time it's a remarkably short-sighted strategy. Denying your customers the features that are *built into* the box because you're unwilling to support those features (even with a few simple web pages) is no way to win friends and influence people. If this is indeed the case, DirecTV should own up to it and simply admit it. *OR...* idea! Be open about it--activate the USB ports, say "we don't support it but here are some places to find more info" and let the TiVo community figure it out for itself. Anyone capable of using a TiVo should be able to use the web to find out more. There are so many hacks out there it's practically open source. There are even companies willing to assist in networking a Series 2 DirecTiVo box for you.
When I had DirecTiVo, I was terribly frustrated at the inability to move shows to DVD or access scheduling from work. Now that we have 2 stand-alone boxes, I love the networking but terribly miss the dual-tuner scenario. Would love to see TiVo develop more ways in which to pull this off for stand-alone cable users. The more features you can offer versus your competitors, the better off your product is going to be.
There's been some mention of the Comcast boxes on here. When I moved recently, decided to give it a chance since it was cheaper. However, the menus and general experience were so frustratingly irritating that within a week I had them come pick it up and went back to TiVo. The horrible thought crossed my mind that more cable subscribers' first DVR experience might be with their cable company's DVR... and based on my Comcast experience, a lot of people are going to be turned off by how difficult & non-intuitive it is. TiVo's design is far more elegant in comparison to the Comcast box.
I'd read somewhere online that the main reason (at least prior to the dissolution of the partnership) that DirecTV didn't engage in all the TiVo networking functionality is that they simply didn't have the resources to become the help desk for every average Joe/Josephine trying to network their box. If that's true, I'm sympathetic to DirecTV as to the trouble for them that would ensue by doing so, but at the same time it's a remarkably short-sighted strategy. Denying your customers the features that are *built into* the box because you're unwilling to support those features (even with a few simple web pages) is no way to win friends and influence people. If this is indeed the case, DirecTV should own up to it and simply admit it. *OR...* idea! Be open about it--activate the USB ports, say "we don't support it but here are some places to find more info" and let the TiVo community figure it out for itself. Anyone capable of using a TiVo should be able to use the web to find out more. There are so many hacks out there it's practically open source. There are even companies willing to assist in networking a Series 2 DirecTiVo box for you.
When I had DirecTiVo, I was terribly frustrated at the inability to move shows to DVD or access scheduling from work. Now that we have 2 stand-alone boxes, I love the networking but terribly miss the dual-tuner scenario. Would love to see TiVo develop more ways in which to pull this off for stand-alone cable users. The more features you can offer versus your competitors, the better off your product is going to be.
There's been some mention of the Comcast boxes on here. When I moved recently, decided to give it a chance since it was cheaper. However, the menus and general experience were so frustratingly irritating that within a week I had them come pick it up and went back to TiVo. The horrible thought crossed my mind that more cable subscribers' first DVR experience might be with their cable company's DVR... and based on my Comcast experience, a lot of people are going to be turned off by how difficult & non-intuitive it is. TiVo's design is far more elegant in comparison to the Comcast box.
#44 - easiest trick, just buy two linksys USB200M ethernet adapters, then pick up some of the video game wifi adapters that work with xbox, ps2, etc. I have a belkin 802.11 a/g wifi bridge going into my linksys 200M ethernet adapter so I can get some great speeds.
TiVo estimated that 4th quarter new stand alone subs would come in between 225K-275K. Just rececently TiVo said it will meet or exceed those numbers. So lets assume 250,000 new Stand Alone subs in the 4th quarter. Those are folks paying $12.95/month. Thats a lot of extra cabbage. If TiVo can have a few more decent quarters for their Stand Alone subs, then everyone will be speaking a different tune.
Joseph Moran wrote: For the past week, I’ve visited and called countless stores and checked numerous online sources, and I’m STILL looking for someone that still carries any of the TiVo supported adapters in stock.
Got mine last week on eBay. There's plenty more there, too.
#52,
I certainly had no problem finding a supported adapter. Both the local CompUSA and BestBuy had the Linksys 200M in stock.
"Countless stores and numerous online sources?"
I think you've been looking in all the wrong places, then. I found and ordered mine in less than five minutes, and it works just fine:
http://www.newegg.com/app/SearchProductResult.asp?Submit=Go&DEPA=0
The breaking news that some Comcast users are getting the DVR features blocked when watching certain programs is certainly fodder for TiVo, if they capitalize on it. 802.11g support is supposed to roll in the middle of this month, and Tivo2Go is pretty freaking shweet.
TiVo's not strong, but they're not dead yet, either.
All this appears to be an attempt to drive down TiVo's value long enough to "steal" it. TiVo's box (the standalone) is far better than the cable-lockboxes. And since CableCard is just around the corner--bringing the end to cable companies' monopoly on set-top boxes--the real question is:
Which would you rather have a TiVo that controlled your cable access AND gave you access to independent internet-based content (NetFlix, etc) and guides (along with other features, such as TiVo 2 Go, and the about to begin developing HME tools AND gave you MultiRoom Viewing, etc. OR would you rather have you cable-company controlled and own box that you rent every month, and that is locked to their content and their partners (at their monopoly prices)?
http://news.com.com/FAQ+CableCard+Whats+that/2100-1041_3-5542400.html
Why don't you start something worthwhile, like a countdown to CableCard availability?
Re: poor availability of wireless USB adapters that are TiVo compatible, here's where I was looking for mine recently:
Best Buy, Circuit City, Office Depot, Office Max, Staples,, Amazon.com and Buy.com (all real out of the way places, huh?)
Congratulations if you dug one up on eBay (probably used) or through a no-name online vendor like Newegg.com, but I ask you, do you think the average person is going to do this (or should have to)?
The answer, of course is no. If you can't find one at a big box electronics store or a MAJOR online vendor, then it is a HUGE problem. And if you think that this is not going to hurt TiVo's chances at viability, then you simply don't get it.
I've had TiVo since June of 2001 and I also own stock in the company. NO ONE loves TiVo more than me, but I call a spade a spade. They made a idiotic decision by going with USB over Ethernet, and they're doing themselves in by being so lax with up-to-date driver support.
I'm new to the TIVO market (just bought my "stand-alone" Series 2). I'm a DishNetwork subscriber (so there's no DirecTV advantage to me).
I've looked at a lot of the "do it yourself" PVR solutions, but (as you all know), they require using your PC (or MAC) as the engine behind the scenes.
Given that the Series 2 cost me $100 (after rebate), and after paying the $300 for lifetime subscription, I still see that as a COST SAVINGS. I look at it as a $400 computer (with ALL the hardware and software in one nice neat package).
I think TIVO is trying their best (with limited resources) to stay in business, develop new products, and software capabilities (HME has great potential to keep TIVO a player in the DVR space).
Regardless of TIVO's long-term fate, I think their product is well worth the price! No matter what happens, I know my hardware is MINE (Hey, it's just LINUX, you know) - and the "important" driver sources are available already.
anyone heard anything about a release date for the series 3? i'm thinking of getting tivo but i dont want to get the series 2 the week before the series 3 and be stuck with it.
I have directv with tivo and the ulitimate tv box. Ultimate tv is no longer being made but you can still get the service so i believe all tivo subs will still be able to use tivo even when their contract it up.
Tivo's problem is they can't seem to decide whether they're in the razor (hardware) business or in the razor blade (subscription) business. They're trying to make money from both, but don't seem to be making the right investments in either (refelected by comments in this thread) to own either market as new competitors enter.
They have a huge opportunity to use the power of their customer base by innovating to customer needs rather than to the needs of content providers (i.e. copyright protection). If they don't, someone will emerge with a hardware-independent service that provides all the cool directory and programming stuff that Tivo has and that people want. They'll be able to sell direct to consumers who buy their own hardware, to (and through) hardware providers, and to signal carriers (cable & satellite). And by focusing on the service rather than the box, they'll have people fondly remembering Tivo as a pioneer, the way people now remember their first Commodore 64.
#61:
And would the company providing the programming and stuff (your words, not mine) support the hardware? A company would have to be nuts to say any hardware will work with our service. That help phone number would be ringing off the hook. The reason only certain hardware works with the Tivo is because that is what they can support via phone.
And for those saying Tivo should license out their hardware, who do you think Pioneer, Toshiba, and Humax are? THEY make those DVD recorders/player units that ALSO have the Tivo features.
Some of you really need to do your research before jumping on a blog and sounding uneducated.
Hardware-independence wasn't meant to imply supporting all hardware. It was a suggestion that Tivo architect their software so they can adapt it run on other platforms, and get out of the hardware business. They'll want to support whatever's best for their business and publish that for prospective customers. Any educated reader already knows that, right?
"Directory and programming stuff" (my words) referred to the services and features that enable management of media content. Programming doesn't always mean coding. If you inferred that I was imagining some magic code that would work on any current or future chip, you read more into it than was written. Anyone thinking that would have to be nuts.
Just an opinion, maybe even as educated as yours.
My girlfriend has a Tivo - I bought it for her two Christmases ago. She loves it - I love it. But recently I got an HDTV capable television, and wanted to take advantage of that, so I went with the Comcast Dual Tuner DVR, as it is only $9.95 a month, making it cheaper than Tivo as well as HD capable.
Well let me tell you, if Tivo came out with an HD capable box tomorrow, I'd be all over it. I absolutely HATE my Comcast box. The interface is nowhere near as intuitive as the Tivo, the guide data is a joke(the box can't even tell if something is first run or a repeat most of the time), I get mysterious recordings that show up and cant be deleted, and the box has already been replaced once because it kept "blanking out" and would not display a picture unless you pulled the power cord and plugged it back in. POS. C'mon Tivo, give us the HD box!!!!
Hopefully Tivo will prevail. I love the technology and agree that going the home media server route would be the best thing for them to do. Which brings me to my question, why doesn't Tivo2Go support moving mpegs both ways. I can download recorded stuff to my computer but can't then get it, or my home movies, etc, back onto Tivo. Seems like it would be natural and not that hard once you have it working in one direction, esp. since they already support mp3s and still images.
Are there any other thoughts or comments on this?
cheers,
~tim
Personally, after more than 3 years of paying TiVo $13/month for nothing more than an otherwise freely available program guide (which I retrieve over the Internet as I have a Turbonet card), I can't wait for them to die. I'll finally be able to convince my wife to switch to MythTV, SageTV, or one of the other perfectly good PVR systems that don't rip me off every month.
Longtime Tivo user here. What Tivo has going for it is the interface. They question is, do they have the right patents in place? Can they sue the pants off anyone trying to duplicate their functionality?
I have mixed feelings about my Tivo. On the one hand, I agree it is one of the major advancements in home entertainment since color tv. On the other hand, Tivo is no longer on the cutting edge of features that are now important to me: HD-quality video, digital out for sound, being able to transfer shows to a Series 1, being able to watch streamed video from my PC.
Recently I got a DVR from my cable company (Adelphia). It records in HiDef with 5.1, has component & DVI output, has an easy-to-use interface, was profesionally installed by the cable company, and the setup took less than 10 minutes. The cost is $5/month.
Compare that to my friend's Tivo with his upfront cost of several hundred dollars (or more), higher monthly fee, has no HiDef capabilities, and a dial-up setup that took hours.
Which do you think the typical consumer is going to prefer?
whatever guys. The replaytv is just as mature. I've been using it for over 2 years now and it's one heck of a machine. I have two machines networked and am totally loving it. The only thing I would mind seeing is dual tuner, but even that is not needed that much with two machines. So, come on over to the replay side !
I really can't understand the whining over not being able to find a USB ethernet adaptor. At two different points in time I found suitable USB adaptors at Office Depot. One was a Linksys bought over two years ago and the other was a Belkin bought last December, both work great with TiVo -- and neither were on TiVo's compatability list. BTW, the Belkin has a solid standard ethernet RJ11 jack, the Linksys has a gimicky RJ45 jack that the ethernet cable will pull out of pretty easily. Almost every place that sells USB adaptors has USB adaptors that work fine with TiVo, even if they are not on TiVo's list.
Hi there.
I have a TiVo, bought one for my parents and am considering buying one for may classroom. They rock. I just can't imagine a company messing up a product with such amazing use.
I had no problem finding a wireless card for either my home box or my parent's TiVo...the one for home was an off-the-shelf from Target (?!?) and I bought the other on NewEgg just a couple of months ago.
Long live TiVo.
Jason
If you've already got a PS2 or XBOX that has a wireless gaming adapter, it pretty easy to make it do double-duty and feed your TiVo at the same time.
If you've already configured your wireless gaming adapter for your console, all you'll need is a Linksys USB200M adapter and a 5 port ethernet switch (Netgear FS605 - $34 from CompUSA. Free after rebate), and two ethernet cables. Just plug your gaming adapter into any of the ports in the switch, plug the USB adapter into the Tivo, and then plug both your gaming console and the Tivo into the switch.
Voila! Instant Wireless-G networking for your Tivo (and for any other devices that you'd like). Sure, it's not true support for Wireless-G adapters on the Tivo system, but in a way it's actually better. Unlike a wireless adapter, you don't have to input any configuration settings for your network into the Tivo with this method. It just works. This is also more inexpensive compared to a "true" wireless ethernet bridge. Finally, the USB200M is *MUCH* easier to find than the older supported 802.11b adapters.
Whoever designed the TiVo icon must have been in the first grade. The ones that approved it were probably classmates, and you have to look at it everytime you use the interface? Can't stand the icon, that's why I'm still using UltimateTv.
Trackback from Dave'ola: "In fact, even Engadget has begun a self-proclaimed deathwatch over TiVo. It seems that the company is more than just a little bit troubled. Which is a shame [...]"
So, does the deathwatch march on, or does the blockbuster Comcast deal count as "further notice"? This is not to rip on the deathwatch -- it was entirely appropriate -- but it does feel a little out-of-place after our beloved company finally did a big "something right." Maybe the thing should at least be declared on hiatus?
Regardless, in the words of my first-grade teacher, I think that TiVo frown can be turned upside-down.
tivo just got a huge infusion of money crom comcastby telling them they will sue them for pattent infringment and tivo is getting ready toget lots of money from dish network fot the patten infringment sute that is in the courts now
And just what do you expect from a company that won't integrate wireless connectivity to home networks, forces the users to buy thier own adapters, yet refuses to support any wireless USB adapter that's both CURRENT with the times and AVAILABLE in stores.
Thier lack of compatibility with modern day networking technology is going to play a pivotal role in killing them.
Sui, Tivo does support wireless connectivity - I have it hooked up to my home network via a NetGear usb wireless adapter that I've had for about a year. I can stream music and photos to the tivo as well as pull shows off.
Is this a joke? Are they taking this long to die?