Gates: the end of the iPod is near
By Ryan Block 
posted May 12th 2005 4:45PM
posted May 12th 2005 4:45PM
So we'll cut to the chase: apparently our friend Bill Gates told a German newspaper he thinks the success of the iPod isn't much more than just a flash in the pan. We're not try to get all iPod apologist on you or anything (though we can anticipate the comments), and we do agree that convergence is the wave of the future, but what we found best about this was when it went from a simple statement of opinion to a bigger PR slip: "If you were to ask me which mobile device will take top place for listening to music, I'd bet on the mobile phone for sure." Uh, did anyone clue him in on the forthcoming Motorola/Apple iTunes phones? No?
The Moto/iTunes thing isn't an iPod, is it?
the itune phone is not coming out anytime soo, the cariers will have the music business locked under their own ownership...
no the moto itunes is not an ipod and i bet it wont come out anytime soon
I wouldnt be surprised if M$ made a iPod style HD for Xbox 360 and allowed music download from box. *shrugs* just a idea. It doesnt matter anyways cus Bill already owns part of apple.
This is bullshit. Self-serving comments in light of the new WIN 2005.
Gates is a shareholder of Apple so why he would kill iPod ?
Didn't engadget (or someplace else) had an article about the whole motorola/itunes having problems locking in a carrier since these carriers all want to create their own service?
Bill is the same guy that said the interenet was a fad...
The point is that Apple is already involved in mobile phone - music technology, and will be right there when and if the iPod is pushed aside for cancer-causing, music-enabled cellphones.
Gates is just bitter. Poor guy is having to come to grips with his inability to compete in the music market and the fact that he probably won't live long enough to see the iPod die.
You have to feel for the guy...
I can't really disagree with what he said, but i didn't think he should have said it. It's a bit unprofessional for the richest man in the world to be putting down an innovative company like apple. It's almost like he's jealous that apple is perceived to be a cooler company than his.
He's just jalous ! I'm sure he has an iPod like everybody to listen to bugging to computer noise and windows turn-on sound before sleeping.
that was no PR slip, the carriers will not let any one of those music stores step in on their field.
the ipod phone will suck compared to the new Samsung with the 3GB HDD anyway.... please.
Granted, Bill Gates hasn't always been very forward thinking in some departments (remember how ie had to play catch up to netscape?). I can see the fusion of the two making more sense when storage capacities can get very high while keeping weight & bulk to a minimum.
I see this exchange more as a jab that Gates & Jobs frequently take at each other.
Gates and/or M$ haven't been shareholders in Microsoft since at least 2003 maybe 2002.
#6, I doubt seriously that Gates is an Apple shareholder, and even if he was the value of any Apple investment would pale next to his Microsoft holdings.
I don't think Gates is an Apple shareholder anymore, could be wrong though.
When it all comes down to it, people won't replace their iPods with the cell phone. The more crap you stuff into a cell phone, the faster the battery drains. I prefer using my phone for what it is, you know?
Plus the only time I really use my iPod with earphones (mostly use it in the car) it's at the bank. Here in L.A., most banks don't allow the use of cell phones while in line, so I'd be SOL.
Fishes,
narco.
With the way carriers like to lock down features for their 'loyal' customers I doubt mobile music on the phone is going anywhere... you think those nimrods complaining that the iPod is a closed system (uh CDs guys) wait until the carries roll out their systems.
he is the richest guy on earth therefore ppl want his opinions about stuff...noe that u have it do not call it unprofesional he did not insult them did he?
gates has been whining all this week. Reading through these you'll note that Longhorn has been pushed to 2006 ("... late next year..."). The article about Google is very telling. Google looks to solve future problems while M$ tries to address old issues.
http://www.fortune.com/fortune/technology/articles/0,15114,1050065-1,00.html
http://www.cnn.com/2005/BUSINESS/05/10/microsoft.gates/index.html
hes absolutely right. you guys who don't see it are completely clueless. where is palm with their conventional pdas now? nowhere to be found, they have died because the phone has taken its capabilities away. the same thing will happen to music, i will ditch my ipod when that nokia n91 comes out. ms is playing it smart moving into the phone realm and getting windows media player into alot of the new phones. this is why ms stays on top of everything because they see the larger picture better then anyone in the game, their ability to converge their products and technologies is really incredible. give props where its due. i like my ipod but i really don't use it much because i can't use it much anywhere for my style of living. apple needs to get on the ball and design their own phone if they wanna stay competitive because if they just lease iTunes to phone manufacturers they will lose this battle quickly.
In general, I agree that the cell phone will one day eclipse the ipod, but his arguements (Ok, I'll give it to him that he is not trying to stage a formal arguement here) are completely backwards.
He cites the Apples collapse in the personal computer department as an example? Doesn't he realizes that this is a completely different company now? Apples music store is dominating the online music market. It doesn't really matter how good Windows Mobile 2005, 2006, or 2007 is because if Apple can maintain this marketshare then they get to make the rules. They will decide what software you use and, if they play there cards right, what hardware you use also.
Most of you obviously didn't read his interview. All he said was that there will be phones offered with music players and that this will make iPods obsolete. Who once to pay $300 if you can get the same features in a cell phone for free from Cingular or any other carrier.
Not to mention the Sony Ericsson W800, which is actually called "Walkman MP3 phone".
You really think that people will buy ipod forever? It's just question of time to have HD in phones and PDAs. And with a proper system not junk which cannot scroll text on a display properly and doesn't even have a custom EQ.
Some people are coming to Bill's defense here. These people should consider that if Apple plays its cards right (with the market share of the itunes music store), they can dominate the cell phone music market as well. Microsoft cannot prevent them from running a mobile itunes, even on top of Windows Mobile.
While this does not refute the death of the iPod exactly, it shows that Apple will still be in charge in terms of music. Longterm, I'm sure this is all that Steve Jobs cares about.
Don't forget his famous quote that 640k of ram should be enough for anyone.
This sounds like a "bite the hand that feeds" comment. I lost a bit of respect for Bill (whatever was left) for his stupid comment/plug. While I'm way anticipating Windows Mobile 5.0, I think he's a bit premature in his death knol for the iPod.
Personally, I don't see swarms of ppl wanting to download music to their phones, even if their phones have 3gb hard drives on them. While the idea of a converged device is nice, I still like the idea of having a seperate music player that pretty much does one thing - plays music.
Now, on that note, I can see and agree that the next gen phones with players on them replacing something like the Shuffle... your most often played songs that you download locally from your computer.
For now, I'm happy with carrying both my iPod and my cell phone.
I agree with Matt, it's the same thing with the subscription-based music store model. If Apple sees that it works and people start using it more, it'll be "easy" for them to make one too. If the music/cell phones start to hurt Apple's share, then they can make one as well. Look at ADC and Firewire -- they know when to call it quits and move along with the standards (even though I do prefer both ADC and Firewire, oh well).
Fishes,
narco.
Things I've been hearing...
"Gates said that the internet was a fad?"
When did he say that? In "Road Ahead" he talks about the information highway. He does say the internet is just a small chunk of that info highway. He never said its a fad. Infact he believes there's more to it, than what we see today.
"Convergence is bad. I don't need a cellphone that can do everything"
-such comments on engadget and slashdot make me wonder what kind of geeks and gadget freaks we have in today's world :)
People play games on cellphones. I use my cellphone clock to wake me up in the morning. I use it as a reminder. I use it as an addressbook. - We've come a long way guys. We have a lot more to go. Don't just diss a budding technology.
My brother (not in the US) was not interested in the iPod that I sent him, coz he uses his Nokia 7710 to listen to music. And he syncs his music everyday. It has a 1.2MP camera (who said cellphone cameras were useless?)
The only problem with cellphones is that peoplse in the US are used to free cellphones. Thats the sole reason why we are stuck with sub-standard devices.
"Gates said that 640k ram should be enough for anyone"
-I've seen it all over the place. Can someone point me to the source?
Come on guys the guy is a visionary. When companies were having proprietary software and hardware-he went the other way. He brought out X-box and put up a competitive price (even at a loss) to make money on the software and probably to make it into what it is today - a media hub. Of course he wouldn't have jumped on a lot of stuff (iPod, google) and also made a lot of mistakes ... but he's been pretty successful with most of them.
===All this arguments are due to the fact that I also believe that cellphones will replace iPods. It might take a longer time in the US. But I already see it happening elsewhere.
itune will not reach other to the cell phone market because the carriers want their own service and they will all go with playforsure. Apple is a control freak MS will only say here is playforsure you can have it. Apple will say here is our format but you have to meet a design standard forst.
I read about 4 months ago in a mac mag that Microsoft bought $150 million dollars of Apple stock in 98 and now that 150 turned into over a billion i doubt Bill gave it up while it was skyrocketing
iPod: WMA Support, Video, Licensed Clones On Way
http://www.pbs.org/cringely/pulpit/pulpit20050505.html
http://www.extremeipod.com/article2/0,1759,1814846,00.asp?kc=EPRSS04089TX1K0000717
Great, I want to put my music on a device that will stop working if I stop paying my monthly fee... oh oh oh! And can I pleeeease maybe get hit with a $200 surcharge if I want to change music formats or something?
Cell phone carriers can go to hell. I'm all down with convergence, but not with anything requiring a subscription.
I can guarantee that the phone will not replace the ipod. Wanna know why? Because the phone companies will want to charge their users $5 a pop to download a song (they already charge $3.99 + for a stinking 10 second ring tone). Each phone company will want to lock their subscribers into their own proprietary technology for downloading music to their phones, which will in all likelyhood suck.
That's why.
Bah! Maybe he's a visonary, maybe not. His company makes the ugliest consumer products tho. (XBox 360 may be his saving grace) Everything he Microsoft produces has "Engineer" written all over... clunky, ugly, non-intuitive and over-complicated. He needs to step aside for a new generation to bring the PC into the future. Most of his predictions aren't anything new, or anything someone else has already said.
"where is palm with their conventional pdas now?"
Uh, there's a new story about them on this here site almost every day. Have you not been following the whole LifeDrive thing?
http://www.engadget.com/search/?q=lifedrive&submit=Search+%BB
"Don't forget his famous quote that 640k of ram should be enough for anyone."
Myth, and I can't believe people still bring it up because whenever somebody does, it gets shot down immediately. You've really gotta be clueless to still think he said that at this point. Here's what Gates himself has to say about that "quote": http://tafkac.org/celebrities/bill.gates/gates_memory.html
If you can find the source where he actually originally said that, be my guest and post it here. You won't, though, because it doesn't exist.
I love Bill Gates. He is most brilliant visionary this world has ever seen. All you guys that attack him are just jealous you didn't think of the things he says first! Bah hah
siemens SL45 is FIVE YEARS OLD!!! it had MC-card and could play mp3.
whoever said microsoft still has apple stocks is clueless. ms bought $150 million of ordinary apple stocks in 1997 as part of a settlement for violating apple patents, cross licensing agreements, and to ensure ms support on the mac. they couldn't sell the stocks for 5 years, which ended in 2002, and have since sold them all.
it was revealed in a macaddict magazine interview in '02 with the head of microsoft's macintosh business unit.
1. TMobile USA is not likely to have a music download service, Tmobile will likely carry the iTunes Moto phone (which is not a big deal, my Nokia 6620 plays mp3s just fine already)
2. There is a market for phones that play music BUT it wont kill the iPod, it just won't. I dont want to go run, or wash my car, or mow the lawn with my cell phone.
So you have your mp3 phone of the future hooked up to the stereo at a party & everyone is diggin the mix.... then you get a phone call.
an example of the microsoft mentality... enough said...
http://www.ntk.net/media/developers.mpg
This line of thinking is too funny....Gates is talking about convergenece.
What he is saying is that the iPod is merely a piece of hardware that plays music. Period. As the article says, just like the Sony Walkman (awesome for its time), it must evolve or it will die.
He is not saying the phone will necessarily be your swiss army knife, but it has a great chance of being the mobile digital music player as a majority of people already have a cell phone in their pocket.
Apple's only real ace is iTunes, but due to its restrictions and limitations it might not last as it is. For many (incl. music companies), the music subscription option is a better model.
But, as usual, many posters stick to the standard Apple v. M$ or Jobs v. Gates discussion. Both men are visionary and anyone who disagrees is delusional (e.g. #35, what are you smoking...and M$ does not make PCs). If I had to put my money on one, Gates/M$ would be it. History is very telling.
According to Mister Gates logic, the fact you can play
games on mobile phones means the death of PSP, PS2,
Nintendo DS and mybe even Xboxes
umm, this is the same guy that said
"680K ought to be enough for anybody." circa 1984
end of iPod? I don't think so.
You Guys just don't get it... This may be a little off topic,, but why is everyone making such a big deal about the IPOd. It is finished once a mobile internet radio that also plays MP3's comes along. Why waste money on a cellphone with limited memory and sound quality that plays MP3's when you can buy a mobile internet radio that allows you to tap into your entire music collection (and your friend's music too) via WiFi or GPRS. In other words,,, unlimited memory.
Why are people making such a big deal about the IPod when it is not the future. What would you rather buy? A device that merely plays MP3's,, or a device that can tap into music from all over the world.. Look forward people.. Remember these words,, the IPod will soon be taken out by Internet Radio devices,,, within the next 2 years. Mark my word....(stepping off my soapbox)
Its obvious Apple needs to make a miniJava (cellphone java) version of iTunes. Then the carriers cant do jacksh*t. Apple will have paved the way in and all will be good. Am I wrong. This is of course when higher capacity phones come out but right now 3gb will get you more than a days worth of music. SO get that and good battery life and I think Apple could have a winner with mobileJava iTunes. Please respond.
1/ M$ no longer own Apple Shares - this is ancient history
2/ You are listening to the guy who said 640kb RAM will be enough
(then others here have defended him saying he never said it).
http://tafkac.org/celebrities/bill.gates/gates_memory.html
well if he didn't say it let me refer you to his answer
"I've said some stupid things and some wrong things"
No doubt his comments about iPod will fit the above statement.
The last thing I want is a 5gb device playing WMA audio files. with 14gb of music (and growing) I need a device that a) to back up all my music too and b) can take my music library with me on the road.
"Remember these words,, the IPod will soon be taken out by Internet Radio devices,,, within the next 2 years. Mark my word....(stepping off my soapbox)"
And the most popular of these new Internet Radios will be called "iPod net". People assume that Apple will just sit on their arse and do nothing while the market evolves.