Cringely predicts: Intel to buy Apple, dethroning Microsoft
posted June 10th 2005 8:00AM
Ever the uber-sleuth, the venerable Cringely has cooked up an interesting idea about what the Apple switch to Intel is really all about, and it's not about technology. He thinks it's about business — big, big business. As in, the kind of big business that would dethrone Microsoft from its place on the desktop. His prediction: Intel will buy Apple and work with their OEMs to get products to market just as Microsoft announces yet another delay in the Longhorn release. The rationale? Intel has a vendetta against Microsoft from being played versus AMD and, moreover, Microsoft's operating system isn't challenging enough to drive Intel where it wants to go with its hardware. This strategy would see Intel and Apple both getting their revenge, and put Steve Jobs in a position to lord over a Pixar/Disney/Sony media empire. The truth is out there, people — is this it? Talk amongst yourselves.
it's all about the money...i would expect better from apple.
scary though....this actually makes sense...but you lost me on the pixar/sony/disney thing...
I predict the Cringely and Dvorak merge into an overmind known as stoopid-head. Stoopid-head will make world class predictions that are slashdotted and registered to death but strangely never come to anything.
I personally welcome our new Ant Overloards. If you need me to do any of your bidding, you know where to reach me.
Honestly tho, it might be good for business and security on the internet and for personal computers. I am sick and tired of running umpteen virus scanners and malware decetors daily.
Yea, i hate those crazy predictions from Dvorak, like apple would merge with intel. oh, wait a minute he was right. peep the link and the date.
http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,4149,939886,00.asp
Give it to me BABY!
I LOVE MY P4, I WOULD LOVE AN APPLE and everything will be good... later
* Eerie Snow tune*
How about the HP iPod connection? Another one bites the dust...
And now for something completely different:
Can't wait till Apple buys Ikea though: Imagine what you ?ple furniture would look like!
-out-
It's a logical and plausible enough idea, but I think Cringely doesn't really argue it all that well. In the meantime, I'm keeping my fingers crossed that Apple didn't just pull an Osborne.
Dethrone MS, yea right.
If intel bought Apple, MS would get cuddly with AMD.
MS doesn't need Intel, Intel needs MS.
The big big boys buy IBM servers running powerpcs or Sun servers runnin whatever it is those guys use. Everyone else typically go with MS or Linux on an intel(sometimes AMD) boxes. MS saying they no longer support intel would give Opteron the boost they need to finish owning up on the failed Itanium. At that point AMD would make unimaginable gains in the server sector, aka intels bread and butter. AMD already is doing very well in the consumer sector and would only get better if MS snuffed Intel over this.
Theres no chance of Apple/Intel just somehow magically stealing MS's market share. We won't even ponder that possibility. Luckily Intel is too smart and Jobs is too arrogant to make this into a reality, so everything will be ok. Let's move along.
I don't understand why Intel would want to try to limit themselves to just Apple software. They still sell buttloads of chips for Wintel machines, regardless of any internal feuds they have with MS. I think this is just a thought provoking article. But if I were at the helm at Intel (someday, dammit) I'd play both sides (both MS and Apple) and try to shut AMD out.
I believe the Cringely and Dvorak cannot merge. They are the same people. Have you ever seen the two of them in the same place? No! I rest my case.
I dunno about that but I know one thing:
If anyone doesn't think this has anything to do with dethroning Microsoft and Windows Longhorn then you are dead wrong.
My take is that Apple will release a "windows compatible" OS X for all PCs around the time of Longhorn and finally consumers will get a real choice between 2 capable OSes. Guess how many will choose OS X :P
GUESS.
Will this happen? I am not quite sure...
But I would love to see ms get competition.
Post #9 -
Maybe ms will get cuddly with el... But you have to understand that amd has a very weak share of the market. I mean, i love their products
, but they just dont have the marketshare right now.
Their sales have been getting better and better, and I like their chips better then intels. But, lets say intel came out with a generic x86 osx, it WOULD put pressure on ms. quickly. Osx is a outstanding os. But, now the majority of the market running intel can get in on this action.
But... amd wont get cuddly with ms, because then it would be ms's b!tch. and amd wont like it when ms starts getting really pushy.
I have a feeling things are going to get interesting reallll soon.
This was a good read, but to be honest, no way do i think this is going to work. If intel trys to even put one over microsoft good luck. Microsoft may be delaying their products, but there not stupid and believe me there not gonna let Intel run around with Apple playing K-I-S-S-I-N-G. As for HP trying to get into this triangle love affair, i just see them only getting involve with ipods only. Microsoft was smart when they started building a better relationship with AMD. This puts Intel on check, letting them know that another company take over if intel decides to do anything against Microsoft. To be honest, whats the big deal with OSX? once longhorns comes out, knowing micrsoft they probably copy ever feature OSX has to offer. Then who would buy OSX? I can see Longhorn being a really good OS, and it will be very hard for Intel to make OSX better when they really have nothing to begin with other then another nice GUI OS. Marketing Plays a strong role and i think if Intel does pull this off. Micrsoft can skrew Intel very easily then Intel can skrew Microsoft. Microsoft by far has stronger marketing influence, so we will have to wait and see. can you just picture it now. Intel/Apple vs Microsoft/AMD?
Oh yeah, Intel buys Apple and decides to put up
with an arrogant arse like jobs tellimg them how to run the buisness, then thanks to their new found purchase, Dell and HP decide that it's time to give AMD a much bigger piece of the pie .
Dell has a much bigger say in intels success than apple does, just like IBM Apple would be
a small player in comparison to the big guys
Like Dell and HP.
I could happen, but I don't think it will.
Its a nice idea, and very atractive to apple fans... Apple Challenge MS on an even footing, but I think the idea of intel putting all its eggs into OSX is unlikely.
Don't forget it's not all about the OS. Apple and the rest of the world relies on MS for the world standard Office suite.
Never going to happen, Dell would move to crush Intel before Microsoft did one thing.
This would help AMD win more of Dells buiness.
I think this would be great. Already the step to x86 is great.
Thin of the possibilitys! An OS war! A real alternative to Windows, not such crap like Linux.
Think of well planed blow againt Windows, that would bring some movement.
LOL you have got to be kidding me. MS can't make an OS that is challenging enough to drive Intel where it needs to go. Why didn't IBM get driven into beating Intel at creating superior chip if this were the case. Last I checked it is BECAUSE of MS that Intel (and AMD) make such powerful chips. Apple is no where near the software company that MS is, lets be serious here. Apple is great at what it does some video, music production, light home use. But MS has about a million more consumer/business/development/networking apps that Apple never has had nor ever will. That is just not Apple's focus, not a knock on them but its not. MS has created new areas for Intel's chips, mainly Wireless Devices (ie. Cellphones, Pocket PCs), and not to mention growing business avenues like Home Theater PCs, and video game systems (don't think that Intel won't gun to get MS and Sony on their next generation game systems after 360 and ps3). Again these are areas that Apple is no where near entering, if they were you would see a much better effort then a half hearted Motorola iTunes phone. If Intel were to buy them that wouldn't change. I really would love to see Intel's logic on this. OK lets buy Apple who has about 3% market share, virtually no business inroads, and no products that will drive our chips into new markets (sorry the Ipod isn't going to cut it). I hate to break it to the kids out there but MS isn't going anywhere they are Number 1 for a reason. First it was Apple that was going to overtake them, then it was Novell, then it was Oracle, then it was Sun, then it was Netscape, then it was Yahoo, then it was Palm (on the PDA front), now its Apple or Google or Apple + Intel. Guess what, MS is on top and just grows bigger because they make an integrated solution at such a higher level then any other company can even conceptualize. Its the same thing Toyota does in the car industry. How about this... Apple continues to make good products for their consumer base, while also giving people the possibility to effectively run Windows (either through dual boot or proper emulation software on an Intel framework). This may win over some to their products because they won't have to lose the real word applications that only run on MS machine. Intel made this move to try and crush its competition (not MS) but IBM and AMD. You have already seen IBM regrouping and looking in other directions with its chips and AMD was obviously caught off guard and nows their percentage of the entire market shrinking.
Walter -
My guess, 3%.
dont forget, that right now, ms is developing an x86 os, not a intel or amd os. So... so, if intel does an x86 osx it will compete with longhorn directly. then ms and amd have to goto the drawing board and come up with a hardware workaround. or ms has to patch longhorn to only go with amd. Hopefully amd will see the light that ms already screwed intel and avoid it. that would be awesome, an intel*amd*apple group? immediately take ms out of the question by coming up with an os and hardware not MS compatible.
This was a good read, but to be honest, no way do i think this is going to work. If intel trys to even put one over microsoft good luck. Microsoft may be delaying their products, but there not stupid and believe me there not gonna let Intel run around with Apple playing K-I-S-S-I-N-G. As for HP trying to get into this triangle love affair, i just see them only getting involve with ipods only. Microsoft was smart when they started building a better relationship with AMD. This puts Intel on check, letting them know that another company take over if intel decides to do anything against Microsoft. To be honest, whats the big deal with OSX? once longhorns comes out, knowing micrsoft they probably copy ever feature OSX has to offer. Then who would buy OSX? I can see Longhorn being a really good OS, and it will be very hard for Intel to make OSX better when they really have nothing to begin with other then another nice GUI OS. Marketing Plays a strong role and i think if Intel does pull this off. Micrsoft can skrew Intel very easily then Intel can skrew Microsoft. Microsoft by far has stronger marketing influence, so we will have to wait and see. can you just picture it now. Intel/Apple vs Microsoft/AMD?
I think that it would be a good idea, but I don't see it happening. I think that once OSX comes out for the intel platform it will give MS Windows a good run for it money, why use an OS that is known for having alot of issues, even when longhorn does come out, I don't think it will be any better, just because it looks nice doesn't mean it still won't have issues with viruses, spyware and every other kiddy hack that is gunning for Windows.
Im sory but steve just wouldn't do that, once you know the guy you kmow how he thinks, and that is not how. Microsoft sucks, but Apple doesnt try to beat thtem, they just know ones better than the other...
~Ryan~
Speaking of Lords and Biddings...
"What is thy bidding?" Ok geeks, call it!
Even if Intel, or any other company, come up with a x86 OS it won't truthfully be competition for anyone MS puts out. I say this because 1: MS has a huge head start; 2: MS has decades of experience to draw from and many of the components of their future operating system already exist, they just need to be tweaked; 3: Most MS OS users are simply going to upgrade and shrug off any proposed competition.
The only way someone can completely compete with MS is to develope an operating system that costs less, is more hassle free, supports ALL of the same software & hardware and is more secure. If any of you honestly think that's happening within the next two years you've got issues. How long have Linux developers being trying to make that happen? Is Apple's OS even close to pulling that off? Yeah I didn't think so. A lot of you seem to forget that the majority of Microsoft's OS users are not tech savvy and will simply stick with what they're comfortable with, or they are businesses who use an array of MS products and will stick with what they're built around. The day I see Intel hiring 50 hardcore developers into 2+ year contracts is the day I'll believe they will some day compete with MS. Frankly I just don't see it happening.
21 - just like you know how steve would goto x86?
i think the whole deal with ibm was a short term solution anyway, since apple had been playing around with intel chips for years now. i think the whole intel deal was brought forward because apple have been desperat to seperate the ibooks and powerbook range. i mean at the moment an ibook is just as powerful as an powerbook makes no sense. this would also help apple shares since they havent been going anywhere now that "ipod" fever is over. but it would make sense that apple also bring everything together now for a whole new assualt with all new hardware for next year. just think you'll get the rumoured apple tablet (which i think will be the new newton/media thing) new ipods plus the iphone if they get the buisness stratgy together. new desktops and laptops too. but i think that ibm will win the day though since they have the gaming community to themselves. i could see microsoft buying AMD though (like they do with every company) and intel will stay with apple. but what if we started to get ibm chips in all our pcs, wont that be interesting! all buisnes in the end. and just to say, i'm a mac user and yes u do get spyware and the shit thing is u cant get software to remove it & plus safari is slow and crashes. still better than windows though!
Whats next? Chocolate and peanut butter in one candy bar?
Go on.....
One thing I think is being forgotten here that *if* this did happen (a huge if, like I would probably put it in the same category of Michael Jackson suddenly deciding he does NOT like little boys, not that I don't hope both of those things happen).
Anyway, IF Intel and Apple jumped in bed like that and MS was forced to rely on AMD there would be a huge production problem for AMD to be able to meet the demand that MS would need them to, they would figure it out but it would take a while. AMD has what % of the processor market right now for MS based boxes? Intel is already set up for high production to meet the demand of the vast majority of desktop computers, AMD does not have anywhere close to the production capacity that MS would require if this was "sprung" on them, not to mention the fact that AMD is already known to be having some quality control struggles.
*IF* this happened there are all kinds of issues like this that are going to be at the very least a gigantic pain in the *ss for MS and end up costing a lot of money in both missed opportunities and direct costs of counter-marketing etc.
That has to be the dumbest theory I've ever heard.
Yeah, Intel wants to burn bridges and cut their business by 97%.
Save me some of that shit, it must be good.
> Posted Jun 10, 2005, 8:06 AM ET by erik
>
>it's all about the money...i would expect better from apple.
You would expect Apple, a company that charges crazy prices for its hardware, NOT to make a business deal based on money? hmmm ... earth to erik, wake up, you're dreaming.
apple is kinda like the mom, its pretty, nice to use, and much easier to get along with... but we know who she goes home with at night.. Darth Gates is just bringing everyone along, epecially Jobs, so that he doesn't have to keep paying money for being a monopoly. they all walk hand in hand even if they do crack on each other.. nobody is going to try and put anyone else out of business, Gates could have let apple go under, they just like to make their soap opera look better so people will keep buying the prods...
My God... The Time Has Come.
Hm... Not likely that Intel will be putting all their eggs in the OSX basket- I agree. As somebody said- AMD doesn't have the production capacity to match Intel's supply to the market. Though I do have a feeling that this merger COULD mean that Dell might have to start using better processors (read AMD). Even if Intel tried to put their power and Apple's together to fight MS, it would be a losing battle. As another post said, the OS isn't the only thing the software companies fight for. True that Intel is very late to the 64-bit world and doing the dual-core thing totally wrong but that fits right in with Apple's universe of doing something elitist rather than doing something will work for volume. Both companies like to build the hardcore shit first and make it almost unattainable THEN fill downmarket. I think AMD and MS have the mainstream in their pocket fairly well by making the NEW stuff attainable for those of us with less money in our computers than our cars.
Long story short, This is not a world-changing event but I think it could have some interesting effects in the long-term.
Yea, this isn't going to happen. Even if it did - it wouldn't work.
1) The business model of it doesn't make sense. Consumers aren't going to all switch to OS X and ditch all the software they've paid for.
2) Someone suggested a "windows compatible Mac OS". Not going to happen. Sorry, but WINE has been in development for years, and while you can argue it's open source and not developed "by professionals" - it's developed by people who have a lot more interest in programming and getting windows apps to work on *nix and it will likely never support a wide enough variety of apps for people to just magically ditch XP.
3) Intel's innovation is being stifled by MS not challenging them -- so they're going to go to ... APPLE?! The people whose processors are slower but more expensive, and who still insist that 1 button is plenty for a mouse? Riiiiight. They make pretty shiny things, and a nice OS, but innovation in industrial design doesn't mean squat as far as Intel's needs are concerned.
Don't get me wrong - I'd love to see it happen. I'd happily ditch XP now that OS X is Unix-based and therefore can run a gargantuan variety of cool stuff... It's just not even remotely close to realistic.
If it happens - I will eat my hat.
Well, I think anyone's guess is just that... a guess.
So here's mine:
Cringely is a little over the top here and might be off on this, but its more understandable than most here are giving him credit for.
Seriously, is apple just stupid? WHY would they make this announcement a year and a half before releasing the new macs, if it only takes two weeks to port all the software?
There are only two answers (that I can see):
1. They were forced to do so by some unknown deal, like maybe IBM refusing to produce any more chips for them as part of some MS non-compete or something. Or some financial issue with IBM that is insurmountable.
2. There is something much bigger than we know. SO much bigger that apple is willing to take a huge hardware hit for the next YEAR over it.
Also, if Cringely's predictions were correct about intel buying apple and Jobs leaving then:
I think Apple will split up into a computer co. and a media co. (as evidenced by the apple computer, apple iPod stock split thing), and Apple Media will buy/Merge with Pixar/Disney and hit the home media business hard and become a major player in media.
Think about it. Disney/Apple would be a big media brand, and would have a lot of weight to throw around. Apple Media would inject monetary life into disney's struggling figures, and Disney would give Apple a huge mainstream brand push, not to mention staying power that is more stable than Apple's one-hit-wonder, the iPod.
A final question that might be driving all this:
Once the iPod fizzles (sooner or later), what will Apple be? They have to strike while the iron's hot.
Man what im wondering is how does this affect those who switched not just for the machine but for the Mac culture (me being one of those)?!
Last time I checked, Microsoft wasn't building PC's. It's the OEM's who decide whether they want AMD or Intel chips. Whether MS prefers one over the other is a matter of optimization - what it boils down to is that in the end they're both x86 and pressure from manufacturers would get MS to support both. Even if MS optimized Windows for AMD, it's not like Intel chips would be suddenly incompatible with Windows.
If Apple licensed OS X its hardware sales would be virtually eliminated - and they don't have the software portfolio to even TRY to compete with Microsoft. I could see MS getting scared if Dell gets licensed to build Apple clones, but can any of you actually see Dell allowing you to opt for Mac OS on a box with a free 15" LCD upgrade that, after rebates, costs roughly $1000 less than the cheapest iMac? The licensing fees that Apple could get from that would be exponentially less than the profits from hardware sales. I could see it working if the demand was high enough, but with Intel architecture Apple should be able to get into the low-cost market on their own if they truly want it.
The way I see it, Apple hardware is Apple hardware, regardless of what kind of chip at the core. Apple will find a way to chain their software to their hardware, as they always have. Intel will allow Apple to vastly expand their line of hardware to include smaller, more efficient products that don't give you third degree burns.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAH....this article makes me giggle! tehe!
Cringely Does Not Know What He Is Talking About
"In PBS | I, Cringely . June 9, 2005 - Going for Broke (via tuaw), this guy, Robert Cringely, believes that Apple is being bought by, or merged with, Intel in an attempt to take down Microsoft. Lets go through his points, shall we?"... Continue reading at Trikenit.com
There's more hot gas being expelled here than the campfire scene in Blazing Saddles.
And the conclusions being drawn pretty much stink.
Cringley is wrong. Apple is going to be good for Intel. Microsoft doesn't challenge Intel to make cuttinig edge hardware that performes at theoretical limits. Apple is turning hit after hit out. (Whoever said the iPod was a one-hit wonder is simply not paying attention.)
But dethron Microsoft? Admittedly Ballmer and Gates are always saying Microsoft's dominanace can be toppled at any time. I think they keep saying that for the regulator's benefit, but in fact is quite true. Apple's growth in computer sales is three times that of Microsofts. At this rate, Apple could dominate the world of computers in, what, 2040? :-)
I apologize, here is the link for my post mentioned in comment #35 - http://www.trikenit.com/?p=13
Apple? Microsoft? You're all mad! No, it's Google we should be worrying about! ;)
On a serious note, Microsoft hasn't been around that long. A couple of decades tops... In business terms, that doesn't mean much. Your average consumer is loosing faith in Microsoft (pop-ups, spyware, viruses) while Apple has this sudden publicity-rush (iPod! sure it'll fizzle out, but so what? Apple is now a mainstream name again).
Could Apple and Intel topple Microsoft? Probably not, unless they have some very clever people making the decisions. If Intel did convert to Apple though, AMD wouldn't be able to meet the demands of the Microsoft community. Additionally, what is there to stop Apple from releasing 10.5 for free to the x86 community? Get people hooked, then start charging.
All I can say is, good luck to you Apple, and I hope things go your way.
steve/bill -
we know you read this, so just add your thoughts please.
thank you in advance
Cringely seems to consider a lot of factors for the switch, but somehow hecompletely ignored laptops.
http://obviousdiversion.com/?p=405
There are some primary issues here which have yet to be addressed...
First and foremost(and probably the only one I will address), Apple's OS, while a wonderful OS in and of itself, still doesn't support DOS like file naming nor does it support Windows based games (even with emulators that work very poorly overall). While, in the long run, the game developers would start to program in that environment (under the assumption that the move wouldn't knock both companies off their feet)...in the short term a rather large portion of the market would be missed simply because of the lack of decent content. There are very few people that would be willing to re-purchase all of their windows based programs so that they would run on their spanking new MacOS. That, in turn, would lead to issues with the ongoing survival of that move. The first thing Jobs and Co. needs to do is resolve that issue. I sent a letter to Apple, addressed to Jobs even though I knew he would not be the one to read it, several years ago with a breakdown of my ideas on how to correct the lack of recognization and usage. The idea was actually rather simple and based off the information I gleaned from the Mac OS in the first place.
Each MacOS file has a category (as well as some other info) assigned to it so that the OS knows what to do with the file. From that category and "other" info, the association with the OS as to executables/installables and as to files run within programs (such as your basic word processing program and its associated text-based files) is built.
The idea in itself is simple:
Create an association with the category and "other" information automatically attached to each file in the MacOS that allows windows based programs to run in the Mac environment as a native application.
The most difficult part of this correction is the file structure itself, but that could also be corrected with the category and "other" information already within the OS. When the "other" information is detected to be a windows based program, it uses a "virtual" file structure subsystem on your drive to map out the proper folders and files. There are also issues with the files that are part of the operating system that the individual programs use but those could also be handled by built in redirectors to the MacOS based system files that are actually in need. This whole idea could be implemented within a year with a decent set of programmers dedicated to sticking one to M$.
Having secured the game console CPU business IBM showed the middle finger to Jobs. Now Mactards and iDiots are fabricating the most retarded ideologies about this LOL. Jobs' Reality Distortion Field is amazing, and it works even after being caught lying (Intel is crap... - No, Intel is the best!!!) LOL
Intel buys Apple
Oh yeah Michael Dell would love that move...
He'd jump ship to AMD so fast even Spotlight couldn't keep up with him. Intel looses 15-20% of their revenue right there and becomes second fiddle to AMD in the corp server market (face it nobody is buying Apple servers right now)
Not likely.
As far as Intel is concerned the PC market is NOT BROKEN, they make money, MS makes money, Dell makes money, everybody is happy, Longhorn or not.
Thin of the possibilitys! An OS war! A real alternative to Windows, not such crap like Linux.
--
why wait.. switch today for $500 and put up your CPU on eBay
all your old peripherals work..