The Clicker: The 5 reasons why Blu-ray will win.
It's been quite a few weeks for HD DVD and Blu-ray.
On Tuesday September 27th, Microsoft and Intel joined each other on the proverbial platform and announced their support for HD-DVD.
The Wintel powerhouse served up this all-but-shocking announcement with a list of technical reasons for the decision. (Apparently, they decided to table the notion of candidly saying "Come on guys – do you really expect us to back both Sony AND Java at the same time?")
Never to be left out of a good PR battle, on Thursday September 29th a cadre of Blu-ray supporters shot back with a point by point defense of Blu-ray. They didn't outright call Microsoft and Intel liars, but they did heavily hint that their pants were smoking and possibly on fire.
It's getting ugly. The gloves are coming off and, if there was any doubt before, this won't be resolved with a nice Cab and the smooth sexy tones of one Mr. Barry White. No Blu-ray/HD-DVD love child is happening. So the question becomes: who's gonna win this war?
The answer? Blu-ray. Below are the five top reasons.
1) Sony is crazy, but Microsoft's not stupid.
As the old saying goes, "On your first day of prison you should beat someone up with a chair and act really crazy. No one wants to mess with a crazy person."
At the time, Sony's decision to produce an MP3 player that didn't play, uh, MP3s seemed... well... ludicrous. However, with the advantage of hindsight we can now see how Sony was simply crazy like a fox ... just another of Sony's forays into jailhouse politics. Say what you will about Sony, but one thing is true: Sony's undying support of their own formats is rarely questioned. MiniDiscs, Memory Sticks, the technological highway is littered with Sony's pet products.
If little projects like Memory Sticks still mar otherwise decent products, one can only imagine the lengths which Sony would be willing to go to protect and propagate a key element of their bread-and-butter product, the PS3.
Microsoft, on the other hand, will eventually support Blu-ray. Blu-ray's capacity advantages make its inclusion an inevitability. While Vista support for Blu-ray might not start in native form, it will be there. Blu-ray drives will ship with third-party drivers. Microsoft will be forced to recognize Blu-ray as a superior format for data storage. This will eventually lead to native support. Say what you will about Microsoft, but they're not stupid.
2) Security
In terms of features, HD-DVD and Blu-ray are actually quite similar. Both use the same codecs. Both use similar lasers. Both even use AACS (Advanced Access Content System) as a content protection mechanism. Blu-ray, however, has added two additional layers of protection to their offering, BD+ and ROM mark.
ROM mark was designed to prevent large-scale piracy. By utilizing the ever-so-slight differences in disc burners, ROM mark is able to tie disc security to the specific burner used to produce the disc. This makes a "perfect" copy of the disc quite difficult.
BD+ is a safeguard against future cracks and hacks. By including a measure of protection against the soon-to-be-hacked, Blu-ray has a better story when approaching the studios. BD+ could also, theoretically, thwart AACS's managed copy feature. It's a feature that has not exactly earned the love and respect of the Studios.
3) Studio Support
The consumer might not like the additional security measures, but judging by the reaction from content owners, it's a winner. The past week has seen a variety of announcements in support of Blu-ray. Some, like Paramount, have already announced their intention to publish in both formats. Others, like Warner, are expected to do so soon. If reports are correct and Warner is about to soften on their once hard-line support of HD DVD, it would be a crushing blow to HD DVD and only a matter of time before the remaining HD DVD-backing studios followed suit.
It also bears noting that one studio will NEVER publish in both formats. That studio is, of course, Sony Pictures Entertainment.
4) Capacity
While you, the consumer, might not like the additional movie security of Blu-ray, chances are you're going to like the additional storage Blu-ray offers. While HD DVD's theoretical limit tops out at a mere 60 gigs (quad layer), Blu-ray is already set to offer 50 gig discs. They are testing 100 gig discs, and their 1 millimeter layers extend their theoretical capacity to 200 gigs.
5) Computer Manufacturers
With no dog in the movie fight, computer manufacturers have, by and large, backed Blu-ray. And why wouldn't they? They are in the data business, and with Blu-ray already set to offer capacity (50 GB) on par with the theoretical limit (60 GB) of its competitor, it's no wonder manufacturers are backing Blu-ray.
Additionally, both formats look to be on similar timelines for release. Dell and HP are both in negotiations with Matsushita to include Blu-ray drives in their computers. These drives could hit PCs as early as March of next year.
While the fight's not over, one's got to give the advantage to Blu-ray. At least that's where the smart money seems to be.
If have comments or suggestions for future columns, drop me a line at theclicker@theevilempire.com.
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 3)
tom @ Dec 19th 2005 1:06AM
i gotta agree with everything that guy says, but its a bit of a bummer about the extra security
owned @ Dec 19th 2005 1:06AM
blue ray will win..thought so from the start...higher storage capacity will in the end be the driving force for consumer aqdoption. period.
Micah Wylde @ Dec 19th 2005 1:06AM
You forgot the most important reason why blue-ray will win: the PS3. Come April, or whenever it launches, millions of people will be buying PS3s, and thus Blue-ray drives. Compare that with the small number of people who actually go out of their way to purchase an hd-dvd player, which will probably cost hundreds of dollars. When studios see a massive rollout of blueray and almost no rollout of hd-dvd, they'll all defect.
Nobody wants to release on a format that nobody will be able to watch.
owned @ Dec 19th 2005 1:06AM
in time the security on both will be broken, just like it has on every other media out to date.
its the FEATURES and not the RESTRICTIONS we should be focusing on.
Gunga @ Dec 19th 2005 1:06AM
Just want to make this point: Sony Betamax... superior product that died in the marketplace. Different circumstances, but the extra "security" (read "consumer annoyance") could be sufficient to shift consumer support to HD-DVD, especially if the cost difference between the two formats eventually favors HD-DVD.
alienshards @ Dec 19th 2005 1:06AM
that's all nice from a corporate standpoint. but if people don't buy the disks, then blu ray will loose.
as far as publishing in two formats...
i would rather have a 25 buck movie in HD DVD than a 30 buck movie in blu ray.
the extra security of these disks is good for companies- but it rather discourages consumers. i like CDs. copy protection was retrofitted.
as far as the new standards- i will personally support HD DVD. because of less copy protection.
what blu ray is presenting itself as is the techno powerhouse, the better technology.
i could care less if a movie were on two HD DVD disks instead of one blu ray.
but if a blu ray burner will cost 600 bucks and each disk 3 bucks, and an HD DVD burner 450 bucks and each disk 2 bucks (arbitrary number), but likely given that sony likes to overcharge for thier better technology, i know what i'm buying to store my data on.
(well it'd be an external hard drive, but oh well. )
bluetrane @ Dec 19th 2005 1:06AM
Sony has never won a format war. 5 reasons Why
-Arrogance
-Greed
-Proprietary tendencies
-Higher Cost To Consumer
-Ms is also crazy and though i hate to admit it Sony is not stupid either....
Funny Sony finally decided to allow native mp3 support in their ... mp3 players
If Sony thinks they will loose the format war believe me they will publish in HD-DVD.
It can go either way folks, this article reeks of Fanboy-ism
I don't think either format will win initially and in the end we will have dual drives for blu-ray and HD dvd. In the end cost to the consumer will decide the winner after a protracted battle
Casey @ Dec 19th 2005 1:06AM
I'm not worried about the security issues with Blue-Ray. As history has showed us, increased security in regards to technology is simply a hack DETERRENT, not a hack killer.
Can you say PSP? I knew you could.
jsis @ Dec 19th 2005 1:06AM
I agree with Micah. By the time PS3 comes out, HD-DVD players will cost as much if not more than the PS3.
I hope the average consumer do not influence their purchase on the acronyms "HD" and DVD".
Kiryen @ Dec 19th 2005 1:06AM
Sony's support for its pet products is questionable at best: MD/Network Walkman player owners have suffered SonicStage for years.
Though SonicStage is being replaced by the Connect player, there is also mounting suspicion that Hi-MD will be retired along with SonicStage; so much for that undying support.
Personally, I'm wondering if Sony holds patents on alphabetization of data containing non-Latin characters. SonicStage allows users to assign a letter of the English alphabet to artist names which cannot be sorted alphabetically (e.g. names in Japanese, Chinese, etc.). This is something I find sorely lacking in iTunes, and given the fact that Apple prides itself on its UI, I would have thought this would be a no-brainer.
(Also, what's up with having to surf through a multitude of menus on an iPod just to change shuffle/repeat settings?)
Southpaw @ Dec 19th 2005 1:06AM
In 5 years I want to be able to go buy an HD movie come home drop in a Movie library unit for a few min and then but my purchased copy in a closet only to be taken out when if I have a harddrive crash.
HD-DVD will let this happen the extra security of Blu-Ray won't. WTH!!!
RX9 @ Dec 19th 2005 1:06AM
Do not underestimate the power of PlayStation. Isn't the PS2 the biggest-selling DVD player in the world? PS3 will definitely play a major role in Blu-Ray adoption. The neutraliser to this would be if Xbox 360 shipped with HD-DVD. Then, I'd say it comes down to studio support - which determines customer support. VHS beat Beta on titles, but this time round Sony has locked down a good portion for themselves which again gives them some advantage.
Tasneem @ Dec 19th 2005 1:06AM
I completely agree on the comments about the PS3. The foolishness on the part of the XBox 360 (most likely contender imo) not to support HD-DVD is going to be a huge contributing factor to the battle.
Had they done so and arranged for a range of Movies and the such to be released prior to the PS3 release, HD-DVD would have had an incredible headstart to Blu-Ray.
And dare I say it, Blu-Ray just sounds cooler and innovative. HD-DVD just seems like an upgrade or extension - and lets not forget what happen to DVD-Audio and the like.
The fact that Blu-Ray is phonetically dissimilar to DVD is a huge plus point and the average customer will see this as the next step in entertainment technology.
Mike @ Dec 19th 2005 1:06AM
Blueray WILL win. It just will.
Bruce @ Dec 19th 2005 1:06AM
Are you saying ROM mark will prevent me from restoring a backup I made of a PC with a Blu Ray burner on a PC with a different Blu Ray burner (like if my PC burnt up in a house fire or was stolen)????
Count me out. HD-DVD all the way.
Steve @ Dec 19th 2005 1:06AM
It's my understanding that Blu-Ray movies will cost as much as $10 more to manufacture than current DVDs. HD-DVD will cost 10% more. I think the market will decide based on cost.
I'm not so sure we'll ever see rewritable discs in either format. It's highly unlikely we'll ever see rewritable dual-layer DVDs so I'd be surprised if they figure out a good way to do a quad-layer rewritable.
bv @ Dec 19th 2005 1:06AM
Im pretty sure billy ray sucks, i hate his music.
cap @ Dec 19th 2005 1:06AM
You idiots he said there pants were smoking and possibly on fire!!!
cap @ Dec 19th 2005 1:06AM
there their they're... damn and on an idiot comment.
monmin @ Dec 19th 2005 1:06AM
#12, Thats not true. It's a bit of FUD to think that BD+ has anything to do with copying a disc.
Technically it could prevent a copy to be made, but then again the authentication servers could do the same thing (before making a copy, you are required to do a transaction with authentication servers - true with both formats).
So, whether or not a copy can be made is truely just a policy issue, nothing to do with BD+.
John F @ Dec 19th 2005 1:06AM
FLAMEWAR!!!!!!!!!1
Kevin Fox @ Dec 19th 2005 1:06AM
It also bears noting that one studio will NEVER publish in both formats. That studio is, of course, Sony Pictures Entertainment.
Really? After it was clear that Sony's Betamax format lost out to VHS Sony started making VHS players while still coming out with new Betamax VCRs.
While it's true that Sony Music never produced Digital Compact Cassettes to go alongside their pre-recorded MiniDiscs, they surely would have if DCC didn't wind up having an even shorter market duration than MD's.
The various brains of Sony's hydra move in different directions all the time, and I doubt that Sony Pictures would rid themselves of an HD -DVD revenue stream even if HD-DVD only represents 30% of the market, because it's a zero-sum game: Most households will only have one player, so offering in only one format will cut the studio out of a large piece of their revenue.
As always, the marketplace will decide, and Sony will respect their decision.
micknkeef @ Dec 19th 2005 1:06AM
I really don't think PS3 is going to be an issue here. I know plenty of gamers and none of them play them on HDTVs. Sure, they watch movies on their game systems but not in a real home theater sense. I'm a Sony fan, even though I feel like I've been screwed by my blind devotion/support of ATRAC, but I think HD-DVD has a slight advantage here because it's called "High Definition DVD". Yes, I think consumers are that dumb. I used to sell laserdiscs way back when and most people couldn't wrap their heads around it. Wait, maybe they weren't so dumb...
Tony @ Dec 19th 2005 1:06AM
So, to snarkily boil down this post to one line you would have:
Sony will win the format war for next-gen DVD on the basis that it has never won a format war before?
I'm not saying you are wrong, and I like my Sony cameras just fine -- memory stick or no, but I don't know if I agree with your reasoning.
Information wants to be free, and consumers are going to want a format that won't stop them from normal legal activities.
I say forget HD-DVD and Blu-Ray, and let's just right to HVD!
Martin Tibbitts @ Dec 19th 2005 1:06AM
My vote is on blu-ray. The only compelling argument IMO for HD-DVD is backwards compatibility. But how hard would it be to build an additional laser reader into a blu-ray drive to handle old dvds? Seems simple.
Martin Tibbitts
Ed @ Dec 19th 2005 1:06AM
I'm waiting for the porn industry to announce what format they're supporting. That'll be the clincher.
Tariq @ Dec 19th 2005 1:06AM
Who really cares anyway? The point that everyone is missing is that Sony, MS, and movie studios are going to be ripping the consumer off regardless of what format they choose. You guys all paid 20 bucks for some DVD movie in your lifetime, and you will need to pay 20 bucks again for the same movie, but in HD. Does that make any sense? Why do movie studio record in HD already...so that they keep selling you the same damn product for centuries to come, oh but in better quality.
I'm personally hate Sony, just because they really do not make products that benefit the consumer. They make products that benefit them at the expense of the consumer. Think about the PSP for a second. If you want to play new games, you need to update your firmware. Not to mention you can't use SD cards, which are cheaper and bigger capacity, just lame Sony MS's.
tom @ Dec 19th 2005 1:06AM
im with you there about HVD....i cant wait for the debates to start about that, vs whoever wins this *insignificant* battle. Really in about 5-6 years, it will be HVDs everywhere, unless we think 1tb is just overkill. i think it is a bit, but its fecking cool, so bring it on!
tom @ Dec 19th 2005 1:06AM
im with you there about HVD....i cant wait for the debates to start about that, vs whoever wins this *insignificant* battle. Really in about 5-6 years, it will be HVDs everywhere, unless we think 1tb is just overkill. i think it is a bit, but its fecking cool, so bring it on!
tonicboy @ Dec 19th 2005 1:06AM
To beat a dead horse, PS3 is the pivotal reason why Blu-Ray will win. Imagine how long it took DVD adoption to ramp up. About 300k DVD units were sold in the first year. Sony will completely short-circuit that by putting millions of Blu-Ray players on the market single-handedly. Add to that standalone player sales and PC drive sales, and you're looking at what may be the fastest adoption rate of any new technology in recent history.
When people are looking to buy a next-gen DVD player and see practically no difference between the two formats (as far as a consumer is concerned), which will they choose? HD DVD or the one that they know millions of PS3 owners already have? This is no-brainer: Blu-Ray in Game 4 :)
BTD @ Dec 19th 2005 1:06AM
You guys are delirious. The only thing that will matter in the format war is price.
Will one format look better than the next on my HDTV?
The answer is no, they will both use the same codec. Most people that buy DVD's could really give a crap about the extras outside of commentary.
The studios don't care about security if no one is buying the more expensive disc.
Did I mention that Blu-ray is a really stupid name?
Price = The winner.
after dark @ Dec 19th 2005 1:06AM
honestly it comes down to price dvd is still alive and kickin with a average price for new releases around $16.00 to $19.00 who in there right mind is going to fork out $30.00+ dollars for just the same movie with just higher visuals. less than 20% of america alone have hdtvs.Bluray may just end up being a format that only professionals since the AVERAGE consumer tends to be very price counsious.
embassy @ Dec 19th 2005 1:06AM
the PS3 is a big blow to Hd DVD BUT the price may of blu ray is a blow to sony...so both sides have an advantage..and most consumers i know dont like being locked out and "secured" from discs they just spent thier hard earned money for...and this is sony were talkin about...they're the L.A. Clippers of format wars....if theres a way to screw this up...by damned sony will find it...
Chris @ Dec 19th 2005 1:06AM
"Will one format look better than the next on my HDTV?"
Yes, the Blu-ray disc will look better because the increased capacity will allow the creators to give movies higher bitrates, resulting in less macroblocking.
You can also fit more episodes of a TV series on one disc, so fewer discs would be required.
Obvious @ Dec 19th 2005 1:06AM
Movie studios need Blu-ray because of its security. Movie studios will always back Blu-ray.
And HD-DVD is a better fit for the computer industry because they don't have to change out assembly equiptment, conversion to Blu-ray would be too costly.
Two formats will exist, because there are two seperate markets that require different features, and no one disk has all features. Just keep that in mind all you who are running out to buy this soon.
Kevin Fox @ Dec 19th 2005 1:06AM
> You can also fit more episodes of a TV series
> on one disc, so fewer discs would be required.
You know, some studios wouuld see that as a negative... A 4-disc set has a higher perceived value than a 1-disc set.
Alex @ Dec 19th 2005 1:06AM
I'm wondering why you say that 50GB discs will be available? On the face of it, things like Dell saying "oh, we're sure that 50GB will ship in spring 2006" are far less persuasive than " Major disc manufacturers are still far from collecting statistically significant samples with BD production."
In any case, this opinion piece is one of the weaker ones i've read on engadget. I'd like to point you to a more balanced opinion piece, but perhaps to counter the effect of this one, have a look at what a HD-proponent says.
http://arstechnica.com/articles/paedia/hardware/next-gen-dvd.ars
Evan @ Dec 19th 2005 1:06AM
There may be a price differance between the two formats, but both sides are going to in the beginning at least cut prices as much as possible to win the war. also if you need 2 HD-DVDs in a movie box to get all the extras and only need one BRD(Blue Ray Disc)[if were gonna win the war we need a short name] then it is cheaper with blue ray. I think a good idea would for exceutives at some of the heavily invested companies to give christmass gifts to buisness-partners which are "A donation has been made in your name" to one of the associations. that would just be funny.
I think this will be a bigger format war than any the human race has ever seen, only because there is so much at stake and that there are 2 fairly comparable standards with equal power coming out at the same time!!!
eric @ Dec 19th 2005 1:06AM
#32 makes a good point, although i think there will never be two major formats, neither side wants to dominate just movies, or just computers, consumers will want the features of one disc for both.
And xbox 360 is an HD DVD player, so that is putting out millions of HD DVD players well before sony begins to roll them out
HEPCECOB @ Dec 19th 2005 1:06AM
I believe that the DVD is still gonna be the main format, especialy considering a lot of people just recently moved from their VHS tapes to DVD players. I think that the BluRay and HDDVD are just gonna be "Luxury" formats. The next format will be the Holographic Versatile Disc (HVD). See, this is what i'm talking about 3.9 TERABYTES, THAT'S RIGHT ALMOST 4 TERABYTES ON A SINGLE DISC. If you wanna read about it here's the link:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holographic_Versatile_Disc
Eddie M @ Dec 19th 2005 1:06AM
You can have an argument all day about who has the superior product,security features and everything else, but that does not matter. Early adopters are not the bread and butter of companies, Jane and Joe buying little Timmy his new system is. The price of the software as well as hardware is going to make the difference. When companies start buying the equipment to produce blu-ray, they will pass that cost to consumers and the consumer will choose the cheaper option, especially after they fill their car up with $3 a gallon gas. -just my two cents
MOGua @ Dec 19th 2005 1:06AM
SONY = poor.
Toshiba = rich.
Microsoft = rich as ****.
If the format war comes down to $$$, then SONY will lose.
don't believe me? find out for yourself. Google is your friend.
wm @ Dec 19th 2005 1:06AM
I just have to laugh when people argue about which HD disc format will win. Why is nobody asking the real question -- why will consumers want either one of these formats? To 99.999% of the population, current DVDs look more than good enough. Given the choice, those same people set their VCRs to record in EP mode and never look back. Same thing is true of Tivo. And the added studio paranoid "security" will make these formats even less attractive than current DVDs. Give me just one reason why anyone is going to care about either of these formats? And since the market is fragmented into two incompatible formats, it is even worse. DVD-R vs DVD+R is bad enough! Can you imagine if you had to choose pre-recorded DVD movies in one or the other format?
The bottom line? Much ado about absolutely nothing. Both formats will fail miserably, or will only be of interest to a small number of fanatics.
Just as funny is how some commentors drool on about how they will be able to back up their entire computer on a Blu-ray disc. By the time Blu-ray is out, hard disks will have gotten larger too.
dcmj @ Dec 19th 2005 1:06AM
I think hd-dvd will win simply because of cost. Blu-ray is an unproven technology and will be very expensive.
Realistically, both will probably fail. Who wants to buy a new player and replace all of their dvds? Aren't hard drives getting pretty cheap these days (that is what I use)?
Wolfeman @ Dec 19th 2005 1:06AM
Everyone gives all these arbitrary reasons why Blu-Ray will win but just because something is better doesn't mean it will win. Sony loves to make supperior things that don't win. Case in point is Betamax. Betas were a lot better than VHS tapes but I don't see anyone saying, "can you put that on a beta for me?" nowadays.
Whichever is cheaper will probably win. The average person doesn't know/care about which one can hold 5 more GB. If the HDDVD is 25 and the BluRay is 30, people will buy the HDDVD, thats a fact.
Joe @ Dec 19th 2005 1:06AM
Yeah I agree. I doubt either will come out a strong winner. 200 gb seems amazing but so did 650 mb when recordable cds were first released. Technology is moving at such a quick rate that no one format is going to be around for very long. Once BPL (broadband over powerlines) gets up to speed, you'll be able to download a terabyte in half a minute... so why should we use a disk when we can access our data at incredible speeds from anywhere where there's a jack.
Ray Morris @ Dec 19th 2005 1:06AM
Amen to #37!
HD-DVD or Blu-Ray, either, or both will be nothing more than the 21 century's deja vu of Laserdiscs of 20 years ago. Most homes have smaller TVs in the kids room, kitchen, family van ect. Look at all these portable video units coming out, or are out. Many of these tiny screens have less pixels than the standard DVDS of today do. Esp. since it apears there will still be new standard DVDs made along with the two other formats. Look at UMD! Studios aren't going to make alot of money off of either of the new formats.
tom @ Dec 19th 2005 1:06AM
i gotta agree with everything that guy says, but its a bit of a bummer about the extra security
Reid Bode @ Dec 19th 2005 1:06AM
I don't care about the security, as I won't be wanting to hack it anyway.
For me, it just serves to make the studios more confidant in Blu-Ray.
Plus, just think. 200 GB's! You could completely back up 2-4 computers on 1 FREAKIN' DISC! Plus, with a rewritable, you'd only need to buy ONE disc for back-up (and maybe a second just in case).
If they get the speeds up way higher, you could have your entire computer running off the disc.
How convenient would that be? Working on something at work and need to bring it home? Just bring home your disc. Traveling to somewhere with computers? Who needs a laptop, just bring your disc.
(Sorry, that was kinda long)
Mike @ Dec 19th 2005 1:06AM
Since Blue Ray has better protection than HD-DVD, HD-DVD will be cracked faster than Blue Ray right? Wouldn't priacy lead to a rasie for price for HD-DVD to compensate for their losses? But then again the future for both formats could fail mesiably because the public still enjoy DVDs.