Predictions for 2006?
Ahh, 2006, so fresh and clean (and we only had to retype "2005" about seven times to get that right). We'll spare you our best guesses as to what the future holds for the world of consumer electronics, though we do have some burning questions: will HD DVD or Blu-ray win the war? Which next-gen console will come out on top? (Last year we asked, "Is this finally the year Apple comes out with a video iPod? Will the Xbox 2 actually make it out on time? Does 3G take off?") But we'd rather leave this to you. Predict for us, dear readers, the many possible outcomes of the gadget world in 2006!
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 3)
John @ Jan 1st 2006 2:05PM
blu-ray, ps3, respectively
mckoder @ Jan 1st 2006 2:07PM
Thanks to Intel-based machines that can run both Windows and Mac OS X, Apple's desktop and laptop marketshare will double by end of 2006.
Paul @ Jan 1st 2006 2:10PM
blu-ray will win, Microsoft will cry, but what else is really new?
Dominic @ Jan 1st 2006 2:14PM
IPTV will become just as big, if not bigger, than mainstream TV. The only way it won't is if cable networks start offering channels a la carte.
Mark @ Jan 1st 2006 2:16PM
PS3, Intel Macs, Blu-ray, Sidekick III, Revolution, Apple Tablet, and the reincarnation of the Newton
Pattmyn @ Jan 1st 2006 2:19PM
A Canadian Engadget Reader Meetup =)
BRANDON @ Jan 1st 2006 2:19PM
PS3 & BLUE-RAY!!!! Yeaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!!!!
Al @ Jan 1st 2006 2:20PM
They will invent a cellphone that you can imbed in the human body so you can place calls and talk to business associates without the hassle of holding a phone or putting on one of those Star Trek ear things. Completely hands-free and everything. I can't wait for this internal phone.
To accompany my internal clock.
Rob @ Jan 1st 2006 2:22PM
Movies continue to suck, Hollywood continues to blame pirates.
M? @ Jan 1st 2006 2:27PM
My Laptop wish for 2006:
HD:
500 up(several TB?) gig FlashDrive with 300mb/s(Sata2)(or Holographic?)
CPU:
dual-quad core 64bit 2-3ghz 4-8mb cache(intel)i dont know if its possible to get the cell together with windows or linux
RAM:
I have no idea what is going on in this section but i think better timings should be possible.
GPU:
7800go(with SLI?) Im shure they are developing something better but Ive no idea what
For the CAD people a qadro with the 7800go chip
EXTRAS:
Dual tv tuner
1gb/s network
7.1 Sound(X-fi)
Firewire800/400
USB
...(you name it)
DISPLAY(`s):
A main display (OLED) from 12-17inch Hi Res
1-3 wheel-away displays (e-ink display or something like it) for Outlook photoshop toolbars and so on.
KEYBOARD:
Something like the Optimus keyboard.
POWER:
Fuel cells
Kibiyama @ Jan 1st 2006 2:29PM
PMP players will hit mainstream but won't catch on like mp3 players have, at least not this year.
Dave Zatz @ Jan 1st 2006 2:40PM
A list of things that will arrive late... as in 2007: Windows Vista, Comcast/Motorola HD TiVo, Nintendo Revolution. Then again, it's likely MS will keep dropping Vista features and release something more akin to XP v2.
JShi @ Jan 1st 2006 2:42PM
Movie theaters continue to decline as home entertainment explodes.
Atanas Boev @ Jan 1st 2006 2:42PM
In 2006 HD-DVD will be the format of choice. There will be few BD titles that offer something better than their HD-DVD version. Most movies will just have identical versions for both formats, and cost of owning and playing BD will be higher. Rare cases are packs of episodes - but anyway the end user pays mainly for the content, and not for the media. In 2007, when it begins to matter the capacity of BD... lets see, maybe new HD-DVD format?
Sony PS3 will have definately the first place in the console battle. Sony managed to create and steal critical mass of hard-core gamers, that will buy PS3 no matter if the Nintendo games are more revolutionaly.
In USA second place for Microsoft and third for Nintendo, in Japan vice versa - more or less similar situation like it is now. In Europe - lets see... some people still play n-gage here ;))
Personally I am a fan of Nintendo, but the big money are still in the 3D shooters etc. If Nintendo manages to change the taste of players, good for them, but it won't happen for the current generation of consoles. Maybe for Revolution2.
hoplite @ Jan 1st 2006 2:46PM
No one is going to buy a disk with a case attached to it in this millenium. Sorry Blue-Ray
DJ @ Jan 1st 2006 2:49PM
To #6, they already did that back in 2002: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/2055654.stm
As for my predictions:
1 - The Nintendo "Revolution" game console will catch everyone off guard with it's simpilicity yet incredible functionality and will surpass the Xbox 360 in sales for Christmas 2006.
2 - Apple will offer an iPod branded cellphone/PDA device that will blindside Nokia/Moto/LG/BT and the others.
3 - Windows Vista will be shipped with bugs. (OK, that's not really a prediction, but more of a future fact)
4 - Tom Cruise will not marry Katie Holmes. (Like anyone really cares)
5 - There will a major internet disruption or even shutdown and it may be blamed on terrorists. It will actually be caused by the UN attempting to take over control of the web from the US.
Robert @ Jan 1st 2006 2:52PM
- iPod Shuffle with white organic O-LED screens in black and white colors.
- New Intel Powerbooks with carbon fiber enclosures.
- Notebook PCs replace Hard Disk storage with Flash Based starting with 40GB.
- Mac mini does TV and records video with streaming features.
- Apple passes 5% market share.
- Google absorbs NetFlix, launches video on demand service.
- Treo 700p wins more acceptance than its sibling the 700w.
- Soccer becomes the number 1 sport in the US, after outsourcing training to China.
Jeff Lipes @ Jan 1st 2006 3:01PM
prediction? no thanks, but how about 2006 hopes:
1.) I hope that Vista ships WITH WinFS, and the whole 'its going to be a service pack' thing was just a hilarious joke!
2.) New energy sources are further developed
3.) Laptops drop another $200 from where they are (as far as holding the same technology as desktops)
Marv @ Jan 1st 2006 3:11PM
My predictions
-A bluetooth ipod accessory will come out by summer 06
-A new video ipod with a bigger screen, full movies, and internal bluetooth will be released by Christmas
-Apple will gain a much bigger market share in the desktop and laptop war with
-Windows Vista will suck
-Microsoft will release a new mp3 player that will give significant competition to the ipod, but the ipod will still be king
-Nintendo Revolution will be a ... revolution. The thing will sell like hot cakes but...
-PS3 will still dominate the video game market
-XBOX 360 will be overall 3rd in this generation of games
-Gameboy Evolution will come out and be much better than the PSP
Leo the Asian @ Jan 1st 2006 3:18PM
I think Balmer will try to murder Jobs.
Blu-ray will win.
The ps3 will own.
Ryan @ Jan 1st 2006 3:19PM
Well, one wish just got granted. I was able to join the Windows Live Mail Beta Program WITHOUT needing an invite! It took me 2 minutes and you might want to do this before the 'loop hole' gets fixed! I am still a hooked GMail fan though.
http://www.cyberwags.com/techblog/2006/01/01/how-to-join-windows-live-mail-beta-without-an-invite/
RobERT @ Jan 1st 2006 3:21PM
Apple brings out new laptop and is wowed because it is thinner, lighter, etc.....but then once people get passed that they will see that the MacOS runs the same programs slower than using XP. Steve spins that thinner, lighter, etc is better than better performing software...
The press world eats up Steves backward logic. Michael Dell is quiet because he has seen the upcoming Windows Vista run on the new Intel chips and it runs even slower.
Suddenly everyone wonders what happened to competition.
SuperJesus @ Jan 1st 2006 3:23PM
The Japanese will create a robot that achieves consciousness which will then replicate itself. US troops will pull out of Iraq to fight the robotic Samurai warriors.
Mike @ Jan 1st 2006 3:23PM
1) Sony releases D-Beta, which quickly takes over not only the D-VHS market, but Blu-Ray's as well.
2) The Infinium Labs Phantom gets an integrated GPRS radio, and starts selling through Cingular stores.
3) Bluehonking, the practice of dressing-down wayward drivers via their car's hands-free system becomes a buzzword after a New York Times article details the practice. Two weeks later, the Times' retraction will be covered on slashdot. It will not make front page.
4) Digital paper displays will become more common, eventually finding use on AOL cd envelopes.
5) Anti-bacterial products will become a major fad. Phones, keyboards, mice, headsets, even iPods will start to be molded from the specially-treated fabric.
6) Apple will adopt a new design philosophy. Color will again appear in the Apple lineup.
7) Johnathan Ive will move to Dell.
8) A major vendor will have a falling out with Microsoft.
9) 30 named hurricanes and tropical storms will see a new emphasis communications infrastructure.
10) Nerds will become the new sex objects.
11) Green will become the new black.
12) A tsunami will cause a shortage of blue LEDs.
Zahir Mirza @ Jan 1st 2006 3:24PM
The introduction of advanced artificial intelligence that infitrates our homes and heralds the demise of the human race. Seriously though, we are going to be replaced by robots.
Donald @ Jan 1st 2006 3:48PM
~ Verizon Wireless regains #1 spot in US wireless customer count by 3Q06, Stan Stigman slits wrists and is replaced by someone with a brain (we hope)
~ T-Mobile goes hog wild at 2100mhz spectrum auction
~ In 2004, it was cameras. 2005 was mp3 capability. The new gimmick for cellphones in 2006: Built in hard drives after the jaw-dropping success of the Nokia N91 and the Razr3 (w/iTunes and 2.5gb of flash memory)
~ All three next-gen systems post sales bumbers that are lower than similar stats in 2000/01 as people realize they're paying for graphics, not games (and in a related story, Nintendo quietly re-releases the SNES at US$69.99 and makes a mint)
Donald @ Jan 1st 2006 3:51PM
Er, that should be "numbers" not "bumbers".
I'm still hungover.
Scott @ Jan 1st 2006 4:03PM
Id pay 100 bucks for a newly Manufactored/Network Capable SNES.
but back to the topic
-Blu Ray will go the way of BetaMax,Minidisc, and Atrac3
-Playstation 3 will gave good sales numbers but the lack of Early game titles will slow it down.
-Meanwhile, The 360 will be hitting its stride but still not equal the quiet riot of the Nintendo Revolution.
-Pocket PCs will come down in Price and will enter more mainstream use.
-Fujitsu will start selling 900 dollar Tablets and become the new Dell.
-Freddie Mercury will rise from the dead and have one last concert with Keith Richards and Beethoven.
mike @ Jan 1st 2006 4:03PM
6) Apple will adopt a new design philosophy. Color will again appear in the Apple lineup.
7) Johnathan Ive will move to Dell.
------
huh? that's a design PHILOSOPHY? white stuff? *shakes head.. you don't get it do you? Use a Mac.. the color of the case is not the point and is NOT their 'philosophy'
ndzp @ Jan 1st 2006 4:06PM
Mac mini with Video on demand (via internet) from Apple
Vista will be delayed
Apple market share will surpass 5.5%
Intel powerbook and ibook will be a hit
People will continue to hack OS X (for intel macs) so it can work on any x86 machine
Firefox use will rise on corporate level
Blue ray will win but disc storage as multimedia content delivery will decline as video on demand and online stores will consolidate
D4RK-PH0ENiX @ Jan 1st 2006 4:13PM
Hmm... There are my predictions for this year:
1. PS3 will own the market until the release of Revolution, and even then.
2. Apple will release an MAC with Cell on board (I'm really Cell addict and since Cell is PowerPC based)
3. AMD switches to DDR2 and multicore (4 - 4+)
4. Windows Vista will ship without WinFS
5. Blu-ray will own data and games, but HD-DVD movies and videos.
6. Benq/Sony/Hitachi/Pioneer will make and universal burner for blue ray disks and ordinary CDs and DVDs
7. Gladiators will release A2 (personal wish| Gladiators Software are makers of Aston Shell replacement http://astonshell.comHmm... There are my predictions for this year:
1. PS3 will own the market until the release of Revolution, and even then.
2. Apple will release an MAC with Cell on board (I'm really Cell addict and since Cell is PowerPC based)
3. AMD switches to DDR2 and multicore (4 - 4+)
4. Windows Vista will ship without WinFS
5. Blu-ray will own data and games, but HD-DVD movies and videos.
6. Benq/Sony/Hitachi/Pioneer will make and universal burner for blue ray disks and ordinary CDs and DVDs
7. Gladiators will release A2 (personal wish| Gladiators Software are makers of Aston Shell replacement http://astonshell.com)
Takashii Ruku @ Jan 1st 2006 4:24PM
an apple PDA, a OS X Tiger for loding onto your pc, or mabye just mabye an apple console. Nintendo will no doubt show off, and for bleedin good reason too! oh the PS3 will definately be restyled, just to annoy nintendos god like designers of the revolution. Or mabye virtual food. who knows?
Killbot @ Jan 1st 2006 4:29PM
>>1. DRM in devices will get more prevent
>>2. Fair Rights will continue to wane
>>3. The PS3, when connected to the internet will form a neural network that will increase in intelligence at an exponential rate. Two weeks after going online, it will begin attacking consumers by launching DVDs from the drive, which will act as flying buzz saws. Within 1 year, we will all hail the PS3 overload all the hail the overlord!
>>4. Touch screen iPod
>>5. nVidia buys ATI
>>6. PS3 Riots. When it comes out, bring you gun, because youll need it. Sadly, several people are killed in sporadic fits of violence (shootings, trampling, etc) trying to get the must have gadget of 2006.
Morgan @ Jan 1st 2006 4:57PM
Laptop screens will go HD, mac mini becomes a home console with dvr etc. bluetooth on ipods.
Tyme @ Jan 1st 2006 4:58PM
flying cars! and hover boards!
dcpmark @ Jan 1st 2006 4:59PM
1) SED televisions in the US, but not til second half of '06. Expensive, but watch plasma prices plunge late next year.
2) Flash-based HD camcorders.
kaspar @ Jan 1st 2006 5:05PM
I'm hoping for a widescreen 6g iPod to replace my 5g
DJ @ Jan 1st 2006 5:05PM
"-Freddie Mercury will rise from the dead and have one last concert with Keith Richards and Beethoven.
Posted at 4:03PM on Jan 1st 2006 by Scott"
That must mean that Keith Richards will also rise from the dead? Hmmm, wonder if Jerry Garcia will plan on showing up for the show.....
And while we're on a music prediction, here's one.....CD sales will decline in 2006! CD's? Come on, you rememeber them, shiny silver discs that contained digital music.....
ranova @ Jan 1st 2006 5:14PM
Off track, but WTF is up with the AMP'd ads to the right. They are stupid as hell and some are disturbing.
Pat @ Jan 1st 2006 5:14PM
My prediction:
Both HD DVD AND Blu-ray will fail because of high prices of discs and players. They will have a lot of space to use, but people will figure out, unless it is a movie like titanic, that most movies will fit on a standard dvd.
A new video game system will emerge out of nowhere, and it will not come from Sony, Microsoft, or Nintendo. Hilarity ensues when fanboys cry and then jump on the bandwagon of the new system (could it be the Phantom?).
The RAZR V3x will set the standard for consumer phones with video calling, and will boost 3g into the spotlight.
A Sidekick III will come out, with Paris Hilton featured on the ads.
While having good games, the PS3 will be plagued with high prices for games because of its non-mainstream blu-ray.
Nintendo's "revolutionary" controller will not be well liked, but they will still make more money when consumers go to buy the gamecube controller adapter.
Because of the success of Guitar Hero, a sort of "Drum Hero" will be released and do well, having a drumset peripheral.
AMD will slowly but surely begin to catch up to Intel, and will be backed by more and more computer companies.
ATI and nVidia will continue to do battle, with ATI having the "top" graphics card of 2006 by the end of the year.
Dell and other computer manufacturers will lose more sales to consumers buying "custom" computers and building them themselves.
Sega or Atari will release plans on creating a new video game console to debut in the next wave of next-gen consoles.
High Definition will become standard. Especially in Camcorders and TV's. This will further the switch from analog to digital technology in the country.
There will be a breakthrough in Hard Drive storage and Terabyte drives will become cheaper.
I could go on, but I dont want to ramble.
Pat
Benchwarmer @ Jan 1st 2006 5:14PM
The revolution will do amazingly well due to its low price point and mass appeal. PS3 will have a lot more competition than expected due to this, but will still do fairly well.
The PS3 will launch at $500, and enter the market with mediocre consumer interest. As with most console launches, it will be plauged by defective units. Sony will make its "Spring 2006" launch window in Mid-June (hardly Spring imo)
Apple will be forced to support divx/xvid in its ipod, due to the success of the Zen Vision M (I cant wait to get mine). As expected apple will also release a ipod with bluetooth for use with wireless headphones.
Convergence will be the key in 2006, with tons of devices becoming one, but will be centered around phones (Ie; phones that can play video, music, etc)
Iptv will become much more popular, as people will be very attracted to it due to WMC being embedded in Vista.
Vista will ship without WinFS (sadly)
Apple will enter the 'media center' business, and offer an excelent catalog of downloadable/streamable tv shows and movies.
HdDvd will do well, as most consumers wont see the difference between it and the expensive bluray counterpart. Blu ray will be dominant in the end though due to its sheer size capabilites, and due to it being in PS3
MS will feel the pain of their decision to not support a nextgen disk format, and we will see the first of many multi-dvd games. MS will turn around and announce large hard drives for xbox 360, allowing users to install files on the drive to cut down significantly on load times and eliminate the disk-swapping problem (for those who buy larger drives)
The Phantom still doesnt come out.
The movie industry will still put out a bunch of crap, and blame it on pirates as usual.
HDTVs will drop drastically in price and will be avaiable for less than $400 by the end of 06'
More to come.
MARK_IV @ Jan 1st 2006 5:15PM
the ipod will phase out slowly over the next 3 years
Flash drives will replace hard drives.
Holographic techologies will begin to see their way into concepts more often.
Vista will not be stable.
Mac will release a new product that revolutionizes the entertainment industry AGAIN.
Hyperion @ Jan 1st 2006 5:17PM
The Optimus keyboard might actually come out and not be vaporware.
gorthondhuge @ Jan 1st 2006 5:19PM
ps3 will not come out and everyone will be disappointed
El Payo @ Jan 1st 2006 5:20PM
Solar energy is teh new hotness.
1TB drives become commonplace, prices drop under $500.
First 120GB iPod released.
Apple begins selling movies through iTunes, with Universal jumping aboard first.
Oscar @ Jan 1st 2006 5:26PM
ps3 will top, 3g shall fly, and of course hd dvd will cry.
Cody @ Jan 1st 2006 5:28PM
PS3 will win console war against the 360 but the numbers will still be close (at least in America and UK). Nintendo revolution will be something everyone wants and will change Nintendo from a kids company to a hip company. It will be owned by PS3 owners and 360 owners except for bitter fanboys. Because of the PS3s success Blu-ray will become the HD format of choice.
The PS3 and Revolution will launch surprisingly on time. Neither company will be worried about the beating the other to launch.
A PSP with hard-rive will come out attracting new consumers and also the success of the ps3 will attract interest to PSP. Interest in the DS will start to decline as the amount of innovative games for it does. However a 2nd generation DS that is sleeker and less clunky will revive that interest. Nintendo will finally release its next-generation gameboy?
A new iPod generation will come out with feature such as bluetooth and higher battery life for video, but people will start to not care. Apples market share will slightly decline in the MP3 player market because some other company will release something cooler with video.
However more and more people will start buying Apple laptops increasing their market share and changing apples marketing strategy. More ads will be seen for iBooks and Powerbooks, than iPods.
Flubba @ Jan 1st 2006 5:30PM
windows live mail will cause a major terrorist attack on google headqaurteres cauing a wrath of xbox 360 to be sprung into the air on a speeding car carrying a leaked copy of windows vista in it's trunk which will then open and crash into a lake while a bystander reads a google book on how to use gmail to create runon sentences and how to use windows live on a windows machine for no purpose and submit it to engadget which crashes gmail, destroying all AJAX everywhere, killing the internets.
Justin @ Jan 1st 2006 5:30PM
In 2006...
==========
Wireless:
---------
- There won't be DMB deployment, for whatever reason: carriers make too much off of video clip downloads, Qualcomm trying to woo carriers and manufacturers with their own dedicated IP-based service and kit, etc.
- T-Mobile will still not have a nationwide (at least all major cities covered) 3G network. They'll still be the ugly duckling of carriers thanks to their poor indoor coverage (at least in major cities).
- Samsung will continue to poop out silver blobs of similar phones, mixed with a few more interesting black blobs here and there. Expect them to stray away from silver blob phones to thin/wide "graham cracker" phones.
- Nokia will release more loaded N-Series phones, though the major new features will be unusable in the US due to the GSM frequency used or the lack of service support by US carriers. And as they refine their new Internet Tablet OS, expect the 770 Internet Tablet and its successors to really take off following a big marketing push and as they make it available through the carriers.
- Motorola will release more phones in the way of their RAZR/SLVR line, and will remain pretty dominant in the US if only because most carriers give out their phones for free. Despite the move to a newer (yawner) UI from their older craptacular one, this still won't be enough to genuinely woo the power users.
- Helio, the MVNO of Earthlink and SK, will take off with the power users, then filter down thanks to word-of-mouth to the average consumers.
- Blackberry and NTP will still bicker, but bodies both governmental and corporate will come together to ensure the survival of Blackberry, since what would they do without them?
- Verizon won't change their absolutely horrifying branding - the awful logo, plastering it at 3+ points on their phones (plus standby screen when in a call), putting stickers on Verizon-obtained telecom equipment, etc.
- The cell phone manufacturers still won't use a quad-band GSM module across all of their phones, instead of a tri-band module plus multiple versions with region-appropriate frequencies.
- GSM reception in the US, compared with CDMA reception, will remain lousy, notably indoors. CDMA will remain pretty damn dominant thanks to Verizon and Sprint.
- Sprint will become the darling of the wireless world, much like Apple is to the computing world. They'll do this with music and video stores, push the amount of content available, and slowly implement new kit such as WiMax and FLASH-OFDM via PC Card offerings, and eventually into handsets.
- The US will still not beat Japan or South Korea to market as far as cellular technology goes. We'll still be 2+ years (at least) behind. Chalk it up to whatever: the size of the country, our unwillingness to pay for features, etc.
TV & media (hardware, software, content):
-----------
- The iPod will remain the ubiquitous portable music player.
- More states will get involved against the record companies/RIAA regarding their pricing of online music sales. The iTunes music store will remain dominant.
- Blu-Ray will win thanks to the PS3, even if the PS3 doesn't do as well as people think/hope/assume. It'll still be the cheapest way to enter the next-gen of DVD playback as it'll be cheaper than two devices at launch (a game system and a standalone Blu-Ray player).
- Companies will still attempt to force DRM on users, and users will still find ways around it. Expect more lawsuits as other companies try methods similar to the Sony Rootkit fiasco on their CDs.
- The TV industry will undergo some change, though not as quickly as consumers want. Flat-panel technology (plasmas and LCDs) at popular sizes (42"-50") will still remain out of the price range of the average consumer shopping for a new TV, despite many industry pundits applauding the opposite. "Cheap' manufacturers (Syntax, Westinghouse, et al) will try to buck this trend by delivering underperforming LCD and Plasma hardware, and while not convincing more informed consumers, will sell well to the Best Buy crowd.
- Expect LCoS TVs to surpass flat-panels for a bit thanks to better price/performance, despite being bigger physically. Rear-projection kit will nearly drop using straight LCDs in favor of DLP and old-school CRTs, and will remain fantastic sellers, again due to price/performance versus flat-panels, despite being _much_ bigger physically.
- New TVs across all price points will have at least 720p, thanks to increased HD broadcasts by cable companies. By the end of the year you'll actually have to look for a TV without some form of HD compatibility.
- Expect HDCP in TVs and set-top boxes to fail due to slow adoption by manufacturers and the intelligence of consumers (how 'bout that!). No one will see it as an advantage despite being touted as a "feature" by the industry backers and even the manufacturers themselves. In the realm of monitors, expect not a single professional computer user to invest in HDCP-enabled equipment due to the fear of reduced visual quality, and the worry (whether warranted or not) that they will lose control of their own content (regardless of how you acquired it).
- eBooks will still not take off despite a hardware push using eInk and related display technologies. Not enough publishers will push it; additionally there are too many different formats.
Computing:
----------
- Apple will release a thin & light laptop (please god) - where thin & light is defined as a max 11" widescreen, no optical drive, and less than 4 lbs. Though I really doubt they will - seasoned Mac users will wonder why, as it seems a perfect fit for the executive crowd, not to mention techs on-the-go and programmers.
- Download speeds will increase while upload speeds will remain stagnant (except those willing to pay $80-$100+ for a custom config'd DSL line). Pro users will still wonder why. DSL will lose market share versus cable access, though nothing major.
- Windows Vista will be late, but will be released. It will be hailed by MS and a few major pubs as a huge leap from XP. Gamers will likely hop on it for any add'l gaming support it offers. Pro users will be "meh", as they've cut a lot of features over the past two years. Consumers won't really have a driving need to upgrade. Overall it's just another WIndows upgrade at this point, and brings nothing genuinely intriguing to the table.
- Independent visionaries will still argue that the "browser" model that current desktop OS UIs are based on are faulty, and while many pros will agree, the major players will be slow to change. Expect Apple to lean on their Spotlight technology and be the first to dynamically change the UI model, while still making it approachable by newcomers.
- BitTorrent will still be the Pirate's Choice. The gov't will get involved thanks to the moaning of the RIAA and MPAA and manage to shut down a few tracker sites, but the technology itself will remain and will grow better and better. Adoption of the technology for legitimate uses will increase, if only for the fact that it is cheaper for a company to implement than other leased bandwidth options (Akamai, et al).
- Linux will still be the dark horse of operating systems, though the Gnome and KDE projects will attempt to improve the average user's experience. Strides will be made to this effect but adoption will not increase appreciably.
- We'll see another 4,485 different flash memory formats that top out at 512MB and stay there forever. People will be ticked.
- Though AMD surpassed Intel in price/performance for a while, expect Intel to turn around and gradually kick them to the curb. As Intel realizes that they're hitting a wall by just increasing pipelines for speed gains, they'll quit the speed race and instead offer more robust chips and chipsets that are deliciously efficient while providing plenty of power when needed - both in mobile and desktop applications. Expect Apple to be one of the first companies to utilize some of these "New Intel" chips and chipsets.
- SLI architecture won't go anywhere as the price of entry is too high except for the rabid gamer. Instead, expect a dual-processor or dual-core card from either ATI or nVIDIA. Expect it use one slot but block at least one more.
Web:
----
- We'll begin to see a lot more shifting from desktop applications to Web 2.0-style applications. That is, the service is fully usable via a browser but an extensive API is available for programmers to create their own desktop applications with, leaving the consumer with many choices on how to utilize it. Flickr and Google Maps are great examples, and hopefully they will be joined by Fluxiom.
- All the buzz around the concept of blogging will die down as it becomes the ubiquitous way for non-technical folks to get their content onto the web. Services such as TypePad and Squarespace will continue to grow thanks to this (even I find Squarespace pretty darn nifty). People that do not and never have considered their websites to be "blogs" will still get ticked when someone calls it that. Personal blog sites with overall pointless (read: personal) writing will be the new Bad Web Sites. Expect an award to pop up for "Worst Blog Site". Expect it to be dominated by depressed goth kiddies.
- MySpace will continue to be the new Friendster, much like pink is the new black. Friendster will languish. Both will face more competition by Facebook, at least in the 13-24 "good kid" demographic, but MySpace will remain dominant due to their robust support and luring of other media (music, movies, etc). "Do you have a MySpace page?" will replace the "What's your AOL Screen Name?" as the standard high school social inquiry, and will be used much like Googling your potential date's name.
- Wikipedia (WIkimedia) will release an API. Slowly but surely, tons of custom apps for a zillion different devices and operating systems will be born. Douglas Adams gives them a thumbs-up from the world beyond for turning his Hitchhiker's Guide To The Galaxy into a reality. People everywhere will rejoice that they can now access this huge tome of knowledge anytime, anywhere.
- Additionally, Wikipedia usage will increase in education. It will be used as a source of reference and cited like a bound encyclopedia. School projects will involve creating and editing entries. Wikipedia will be asked by schools and universities to archive all changes and make them accessible by date and time for the purposes of proper citation, as the content is dynamic and changes over time. Hopefully they'll do it. Donations by universities will increase dramatically.
Gaming:
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- Xbox 360 will be on top (duh, it's the only one out) as shipments increase - then a heated battle when/if PS3 launches this year. Though PS2 was on top versus the Xbox, I think that the 360 might be the winner of this generation of game machines based on the ease of development and the Live aspects (both online game play and content delivery).
- The PSP will still languish, though Sony won't kill it off. Just look at how long they backed MD in the US. Many will still wonder why you'd buy movies on UMD instead ripping DVDs to a Memory Stick, as it is cheaper in the long run and you get way more usage options from a DVD.
- The Revolution, if launched this year, will be a home run if only for the cheaper price point (average consumers) and will net the seasoned gamers with either interesting titles (thanks to the controller), pure curiosity, or the back catalog of games available via online delivery (both older-gen and GameCube titles).
- Whatever the final form of the PS3's controller, expect a lot of derision from the gaming ranks, even though they'll still be out in droves to buy the system.
- MS will bite the bullet and release an add-on for the 360 that brings some of the Windows MCE features with it - most notably DVR functionality. It will be in the form of a thicker hard-drive component as it will contain the tuner elements as well as a much bigger drive.
- Cell phone gaming will still stink. ATI, nVIDIA and other chipset manufacturers will try to increase its appeal with new powerful graphic chipsets, but as (in the US at least) carriers have the final say on what goes into their subsidized phones, their attempts will be mostly futile. Expect cell phone gaming in other countries to get exponentially better, specifically in Japan and South Korea, and the carriers there are much more forward-looking and less concerned about dirt-cheapness. We'll even see some interesting MMO games in those countries that even tie to desktop versions. Expect Europe to just kind of hang out in the middle.
Other:
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- There still won't be any major developments in the field of free energy. Take your pick: not enough funding, governmental squandering, etc. Despite all the pros, the major con of having the ability to throw the worldwide economy into chaos for a good bit of time is a pretty big dealbreaker.
- Customer Service overall will still be horrendous, but a few major companies will surprisingly turn theirs around. I believe Sprint and Time Warner are good examples of this, even if they're not perfect yet, the changes are damn noticeable.
- We won't see any new battery technology. No fuel cells. Lithium-Polymer may slowly replace Lithium-Ion in a few markets but no one will really notice.
- Hybrid engines will be put into more and more cars. Hopefully the gov't will offer some sort of really great incentive for companies to do this, and even for people to buy them.
- In New York, the MTA will still be the bane of everyone's existence as zero improvements are made system-wide. No new subway cars, no improved signaling tech, etc.
What I'd like to see:
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- A Sidekick/Hiptop on a CDMA carrier with media features (audio, photo, video playback) and Bluetooth with OBEX.
- SyncML in _everything_.
- I recently got into eBooks. I'd love to see an industry-standard format for them. Publishers and tech companies should get together on this. Offer a DRM'd version in addition to an open version. The industry failed in this regard when it came to online music purchasing but hopefully they can avoid it this time around. After a standard is decided, Apple should spearhead the offerings by creating an eInk-based reader unit with their usual flair: small, thin and light. Apple should offer a storefront for the eBooks just like the iTunes Music Store does for music, along with a desktop application. Other manufacturers should follow suit. And thanks to having an industry-standard format, you're not limited to the "Apple eBook Store" - you could get them from any publisher's selected storefront. Apple would again dominate the market based solely on the "easy as pie" factor.
- Would you please decide on standard flash memory formats? Stop thinking of new ways to screw consumers, because that's all you're doing. Plus with each new format comes the promise of high capacity, but zero delivery. How about this: CompactFlash for large cameras, SD for small cameras and PDAs, MiniSD for cell phones and PDAs (already a near-standard for Japanese wireless manufacturers, plus it's small enough dammit!), and _that is it_. Slowly kill off xD, MMC, MiniSD/Transflash, RS-MMC, MemoryStick (sorry Sony, tough luck) and so forth. If the industry got together behind these few standard they could spend more time on actually increasing the capacity to promised levels, at affordable prices.
- Where the heck is the nanotechnology? Or the biotechnology? Where on Earth is all the genuinely cool stuff that could change the way we look at our (consumerist) world? Just give me a can of paint that is self healing if it gets scratched. And an implanted tattoo that I can change when the mood hits me. Or a coating for screens (monitors, TVs, etc) that is self-cleaning. And a stove that completely repels grease and grime, just like a duck repels water. And a touch-screen LCD that doesn't need a screen protector since it repairs itself when marked.
- Give me a 3D operating system, or at least the option. I think in three dimensions, so let me work in them. Heck, keep the folders but give me shelves and drawers and containers. I'm tired of looking through nested folders in two dimensions, because I think people work better spatially. I want to think "Oh yeah, that's filed under 2005 in my Writing bin on my Personal shelf. Let me walk over there" and "Oh, I use that file a lot, I threw it in this drawer" instead of "Oh yeah, that file is under tilde, in Personal, in Writing, in 2005. Let me click a million times." Don't want to work on something? Fine, you don't have to stick it in some obscure folder, you can just literally "toss it in the corner."
- Make a new way to interface with a computer. Keyboards are great, but find something to replace the mouse. I don't know what it would be, but it would look nothing like a mouse. Touchscreens get dirty if you use your fingers, and stylii are easily lost. How about that hand-dealy from Minority Report?
- Offer a Bluetooth Certification Program. If the product "passes" then they get a nifty "Certified!" logo. And I mean a real certification program - the device in question should have no problems connecting and staying connected with other devices, as long as they supported the same profiles. In fact, make every device with Bluetooth list exactly what profiles it supports on the box.
- Where's my Bluetooth watch? I rarely feel my phone vibrate in my pocket. I want a watch that will display the caller and alert me via vibration. And I don't want to have to recharge my damn watch every few days either. Find a way to make it work. Harrumph.
- I want my phone to give me information without asking. Before I leave my house I want to look at my phone and see the weather. And stock prices. And sports scores. Make the phone update this info as often as I want. Make it display it on the outside screen if it is a flip phone.
- I want an optical media burner that has like 20 lasers in it so it takes like 30 seconds to burn a full DVD, since the lasers literally "stamp" the DVD with the data. Throw another laser on top so that I can etch _anything I want_ onto the top.
RobERT @ Jan 1st 2006 5:31PM
Civil unrest will continue to rise in China in 2006. Manufacturers will start to see the troubling signs in the potential collapse of Chinese communist govt. (Which will happen 1-2 years after the Olympic games in 2008.)
Companies will slow investments in China and begin to plan to shift factory work to other countries.
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Steve Ballmer will resign from Microsoft claiming health reasons.
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Subverting surveillance cameras will become an urban cult sport.
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Computer and video games sales will be continue to draw down as this generation passes through its gaming phase (suddenly realizing all the time and opportunity they have wasted clicking their lives away).
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There will be an uptick in talented people being successful selling uniquely crafted art and other products via the internet as more consumers wish for quality and something unique and original rather than buying the same generic thing that is available in nearly every city in the world.