The Clicker: The DVD's "Bubble"

Every Thursday Stephen Speicher contributes The Clicker, a weekly opinion column on entertainment and technology:

The power of a bubble is a curious thing. In some cases, like with the Internet bubble or the real estate bubbles of the past, the sheer magnitude of the bubble will eventually cause an explosion (err, implosion). At the other extreme, like with the human body, one tiny little air-bubble can seize up an otherwise well-oiled machine and cause a stroke.

And then, as is the case with Steven Soderbergh's new film “Bubble,” sometimes it’s the tiny little “Bubble” that exposes the monumentally big bubble.

Director/Producer Steven Soderbergh is no stranger to risk. Throughout his career Soderbergh has made it a habit to challenge the status quo. With his 2003 film “Full Frontal,” Soderbergh eschewed the conventional wisdom that films had to be shot on, well, film. Instead, Soderbergh opted for the stylistic (and cost-saving) choice of the camcorder.

In 2003, Soderbergh again got creative when he attempted to morph the line between reality and fiction with his critically-acclaimed (if unsuccessful) HBO series “K Street.” Unlike many purists in Hollywood, Soderbergh has always viewed both movies and the industry as a living and evolving entity.

Therefore, it shouldn’t come as a shock to anyone that when Soderbergh wrapped on his $1.6 million art-house film, “Bubble,” he would again look to make some waves. And waves he made; drawing the ire of much of the movie industry, Soderbergh announced a simultaneous release of his newest film. For the first time ever a movie will, within four days, hit the theaters, cable television, and DVDs. Not surprisingly, this has caused quite a stir in Hollywood.

In Hollywood, DVDs have long been considered a double-edged sword. On one hand DVDs have allowed studios to recoup their losses on theatrical bombs. Many a movie has made the transition from red to black as a 12 cm piece of spinning plastic. On the other hand, the movie industry is mindful of its bread and butter, the theater. Besides raking in multiple billions each year in ticket sales, theaters have also served as a kick-start for a film -- a coming out party if you will.

For years studios were living the good life. They were aware that ticket sales were beginning to slump. These losses, however, were more than offset by the boom in DVD sales. The beginning of this decade saw DVD sales growth at over 60% per year.

On the low end, sub-$50 DVD players made DVDs an economical choice when compared to the high ticket prices, expensive concessions, and general hassle of going to the theater. On the high-end, the explosion of the home-theater market meant that many consumers were enjoying an overall better experience in their homes. Large DVD collections buoyed sales and helped mask an issue.

Hoping to extend this DVD windfall, studios not only began releasing just about everything in their collections in DVD form they also began drastically cutting down the time between theatrical and DVD releases. For a while this plan worked. However, all that could be about to change.

DVD sales have slowed dramatically. 2005 saw the first single-digit growth year for DVD sales at a predicted 9% and, despite movie studios’ attempts to pump movies out even quicker (Fox recently announced plans to release hi-def versions of its movies a mere 60 days after theatrical release), 2006 looks to be even worse.

This has many a Hollywood insider questioning the industry and has some forward-looking individuals such as Soderbergh and his financier Mark Cuban trying new strategies to stay ahead of the curve.

The question still remains: is this a winning strategy?

For Soderbergh and Cuban such a gamble is a no-brainer. The scale of “Bubble” means that, most likely, the bulk of the income would have come from DVD sales in any case. These DVD sales will undoubtedly be increased by the PR associated with such a bold move. Additionally, Cuban’s ownership of the cable portion of the release (via HDnet Movies), assures a rather tightly-controlled chain over the cable release. There is little doubt that “Bubble” will hit the black.

For the rest of the industry, on the other hand, the picture is less clear. After weaning customers from theaters through aggressive DVD sales programs, major film companies might just have a problem if movie-watchers start to realize that buying a DVD for their collection isn’t a financially good decision. Unfortunately for the studios, this is starting to happen. It’s no coincidence that the decline in DVD sales growth is coinciding with the rise in DVD rental programs such as Netflix. Yes, there will always be dedicated collectors. However, most people are starting to do the math and they’re realizing that they would need to watch a movie more that 5 times for buying to make sense.

Is the simultaneous release a trend that will catch on? Or as Don Ho might just sing, is this “A tiny ‘Bubble’ or a sign?” It’s unclear, but it should be interesting.

If you have comments or suggestions for future columns, drop me a line at theclicker@theevilempire.com