Switched On: All the President's Discs
Each week Ross Rubin contributes Switched On, a weekly column about the future of technology, multimedia, and
digital entertainment:
"Waswitchedon Post news desk. Karl Burnstein
speaking."
"I know all about Microsoft and HD DVD."
"Who is this?"
"Call me… 'Disc Bloat.'"
"Yeah, well, whoever you are, that's yesterday's news. Everyone knows that Microsoft went with HD DVD in order to cause grief for Sony, and especially wanted iHD for interactivity since the equivalent Blu-ray specification is based on Java."
"You're wrong, Burnstein. Microsoft doesn't want HD DVD to win."
"Huh? Then why are they backing it?"
"Follow the money."
"What do you mean?"
"Microsoft wants both Blu-ray and HD DVD to lose. You see, before Microsoft and Intel backed HD DVD, Toshiba was just about the only major consumer hardware brand backing HD DVD. Now, since Microsoft and Intel have hopped on to the HD DVD bandwagon and at least dragged HP part of the way there, HD DVD has become a much more viable option."
"So, like I said, Microsoft wants HD DVD to win."
"No. Microsoft knows that even with its and Intel's support, the standard isn't strong enough to beat Blu-ray in the marketplace per se. However, with them on board, HD DVD is just strong enough so that there's a good chance that neither standard will be able to claim a clear victory..."
"How is that good for Microsoft?"
"Simple. Microsoft really has nothing to gain from either format winning. Just listen to any of Gates' recent interviews and how he talks about discs as a necessary evil until the world is ready for media-free distribution. That said, Microsoft has much to gain from both formats losing. Think back to the format war between DVD-Audio and SACD. Both formats lost and it was a computer company that stepped in to become the new center of the digital music universe.
"Microsoft was a bit late to the game for that one, but it's making a big investment into securing Windows Vista for Hollywood as well as ensuring that Portable Media Centers work with DirecTV set-tops. Microsoft gets to sell DRM software and Windows Mobile licenses so that consumers can take this stuff on the go. All of that is a lot less likely if the content is trapped in a 5-inch round jail, regardless of which camp is the warden.
"Once video is distributed completely digitally, Microsoft and Intel benefit by it being managed through the PC and Microsoft gets to sell its own codecs to optimize quality versus compression. On a 50 GB disc, Sony and others have the luxury of using older, less efficient codecs such as MPEG-2."
"Wow, that sure is in an interesting theory you've got there. How far up Microsoft does it go?"
"All the way to the big man."
"The big man? Ballmer? Gates?"
"Sasquatch."
"Waswitchedon Post news desk. Karl Burnstein
speaking.""I know all about Microsoft and HD DVD."
"Who is this?"
"Call me… 'Disc Bloat.'"
"Yeah, well, whoever you are, that's yesterday's news. Everyone knows that Microsoft went with HD DVD in order to cause grief for Sony, and especially wanted iHD for interactivity since the equivalent Blu-ray specification is based on Java."
"You're wrong, Burnstein. Microsoft doesn't want HD DVD to win."
"Huh? Then why are they backing it?"
"Follow the money."
"What do you mean?"
"Microsoft wants both Blu-ray and HD DVD to lose. You see, before Microsoft and Intel backed HD DVD, Toshiba was just about the only major consumer hardware brand backing HD DVD. Now, since Microsoft and Intel have hopped on to the HD DVD bandwagon and at least dragged HP part of the way there, HD DVD has become a much more viable option."
"So, like I said, Microsoft wants HD DVD to win."
"No. Microsoft knows that even with its and Intel's support, the standard isn't strong enough to beat Blu-ray in the marketplace per se. However, with them on board, HD DVD is just strong enough so that there's a good chance that neither standard will be able to claim a clear victory..."
"How is that good for Microsoft?"
"Simple. Microsoft really has nothing to gain from either format winning. Just listen to any of Gates' recent interviews and how he talks about discs as a necessary evil until the world is ready for media-free distribution. That said, Microsoft has much to gain from both formats losing. Think back to the format war between DVD-Audio and SACD. Both formats lost and it was a computer company that stepped in to become the new center of the digital music universe.
"Microsoft was a bit late to the game for that one, but it's making a big investment into securing Windows Vista for Hollywood as well as ensuring that Portable Media Centers work with DirecTV set-tops. Microsoft gets to sell DRM software and Windows Mobile licenses so that consumers can take this stuff on the go. All of that is a lot less likely if the content is trapped in a 5-inch round jail, regardless of which camp is the warden.
"Once video is distributed completely digitally, Microsoft and Intel benefit by it being managed through the PC and Microsoft gets to sell its own codecs to optimize quality versus compression. On a 50 GB disc, Sony and others have the luxury of using older, less efficient codecs such as MPEG-2."
"Wow, that sure is in an interesting theory you've got there. How far up Microsoft does it go?"
"All the way to the big man."
"The big man? Ballmer? Gates?"
"Sasquatch."
Ross Rubin is director of industry analysis at NPD Techworld, a division of market research and analysis provider The NPD Group. Views expressed in Switched On, however, are his own. Feedback is welcome at fliptheswitch@gmail.com.
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
Andy S. @ Feb 16th 2006 12:20PM
Sasquatch, Ballmer... same difference, with the exception of the hair.
The_Solidshadow @ Feb 16th 2006 12:29PM
Very interesting...
otakucode @ Feb 16th 2006 12:56PM
Yes, very interesting... I have to wonder though, what about the bandwidth problem? There's not enough bandwidth spread out over a great enough part of the population yet to see realistic media-free content delivery. Perhaps if they were dealing with crappy DVD quality video or less they could get away with it with MPEG-4 h.264... but Microsoft isn't going to be able to kill the move to HD just because the bandwidth companies want to squeeze every penny out of their customers by not having any bandwidth "jumps" of speed.
And none of that even accounts for the inevitable backlash against "buying a license" that is going to happen one day when Apple changes their licensing structure and everyone discovers they don't own their iTMS tunes and have to pay Apple a ransom to get access to things they already paid for.
Ratteler @ Feb 16th 2006 1:16PM
Yet another reason to make the Chinese DRM free fromat the unofficial winner.
It's time we applied the same open source mentality to hardware that has been so sucessful in software.
Look, I got no love of China. But in this instance they are the only group with a base big enough to challenge this BS that Gates and Hollywood are pushing on us. If there is another manufacturer that we can get to say "to hell with Hollywood, were making what people want to buy" let me know.
At the end of the day, money always talks, Even in a communist country.
Both these formats, when "ready" are going to be hyped like mad and dangled in front of the dummies who don't know any better. We need to offer a better, underground solution before they get their act together.
Cracking these formats won't do the trick either, because they still sell units and cover their costs.
If you're reading this, you're probably one of the guys who advises everyone you know about what to buy and what not too. Then find the OPEN Source, OPEN format answer to the HD-BS, and screw Microsoft, Sony and Hollywood all in movment.
epobirs @ Feb 16th 2006 1:29PM
Flawed analogy to high-end digital audio. The failure of both DVD-A and SACD has absolutely nothing to do with the success of Apple in digital music players and distribution. Apple's business deals in playback and sales for CD or lower quality audio. DVD-A and SACD were about a major improvement in audio quality. The difference can quite dramatic but difficult to appreciate on low-end equipment.
Market demand for higher audio quality is a very separate issue from the choice of playback devices and purchase methods. Eventually market saturation will drive Apple and others to push the audio quality aspect. Then we'll see support for high bit lengths and sample rates on iPods and the requisites files on iTunes.
ShrimpCrackers @ Feb 16th 2006 1:35PM
Dfinitely Ratteler, if you're willing to wait till 2008 for the Chinese format to come out.
epobirs @ Feb 16th 2006 1:44PM
Also, using MPEG-2 on Blu-ray is just a transitional phase to allow existing mastering houses to more easily produce their first products. If you go with MPEG-2 when you're in competition with HD-DVD you'll be squandering the capacity advantage. This will matter quite a lot in the lucrative TV season box set market. Using the advanced codec means keeping the number of discs used down and reducing the bulk of the package. This improves accessability of the content and reduces storage issues for the consumer while increasing profit margins for the vendor.
In general, producers and consumers will want the most from the media capacity of the format. Long term, the overwhelming majority of releases will use the newer codecs. Don't forget, Microsoft's VC-1 is just one of the choices. If they choose H.264, which is also supported, it serves MS no more than MPEG-2.
Microsoft and Intel are backing HD-DVD primarily because it is a more open format. They submitted their spec to the DVD Forum and have been pretty accommodating to other IP owners working through the Forum. Sony instead formed their own standards body for Blu-ray. There may be other companies within the Blu-ray committee but Sony holds the whip. So it isn't surprising that Intel and MS are wary of the arranement. All three companies want as much control of how the next gen disc format develops as they can get but two players will cede absolute control if it means also keeping it from the third.