Michael Robertson calls out Zune as biggest flop of 2007

In our line of work we hear a lot of noise from the talking heads day in and out, but we can't help biting down on this latest hook courtesy of Michael Robertson. The anti-tech-powerexec is known for founding MP3.com, Lindows / Linspire, Skype competitor SIPphone, and DRM-free online music sales biz MP3tunes, not to mention former employer of DRM freedom fighter Jon Johansen -- so it shouldn't come as much of a surprise that after the ruckus being raised around the Zune's crippled WiFi and worthless DRM system that he stepped in to take a potshot. We're with him a hundred percent on railing against DRM and the somewhat absurd position Microsoft is taking by scrapping PlaysForSure in their own device efforts (what he calls "Screwed for Sure"), but things get a little bombastic: "At first glance the features seem compelling but my prediction is it will be the biggest flop of 2007 with less than 50,000 units sold worldwide." Also, says Robertson, "I've been looking for a good verb to describe losing all of your music to DRM because it's increasingly common and I think I have one: zune." Only 50,000 units? Doubtful; and maybe it's a little much to repurpose the product name to summarily encompass a near universal embitterment for digital rights management (after all, wouldn't "ipod" work better, especially after the podsuits?), but we're absolutely not going to argue his thesis: DRM is bad market and bad for the consumer.

[Bill Hancock @ Oct 8th 2006 6:50PM]

Down with DRM...ive been Zuned once already so...

[Brian @ Oct 8th 2006 6:52PM]

What a nob. Comments like these simply show one's bitterness or arrogance, and only fan the flames. Any good argument or cause can be ruined by this kind of foolishness: if MS sells over 50,000 units, and especially if Zune becomes a hit, not only will HE look like a fool, but so will his cause, and that's a shame.

[Torontoguy @ Oct 8th 2006 6:59PM]

I really am not interested in another boring MP3 player or (so-called) 'music' downloads or in the lamers who engage in it. But, there are some people who you can always trust to be wrong-headed losers. If THIS guy is against it...the Zune just might be worth a second look.
If you really think a product is going to fail...there is no need to say anything but if you think it might have a chance then that is probably the motivation for talking trash...

[chris @ Oct 8th 2006 7:01PM]

Biggest flop of 2007? Only if Vista is realeased in 08.

[SR @ Oct 8th 2006 7:06PM]

Well, he's right. There is no market for a larger sized iPod look-alike that is ugly and requires people to re buy all their music. Don't start flaming me because the market prefers good-looking products that are small and easy to use. Whatever MS has the money to keep redesigning it until they win the market by brute force. I anticipate that it will take a couple of iterations though.

[AJ @ Oct 8th 2006 7:13PM]

Thank you.

I totally agree.

[Brian @ Oct 8th 2006 7:24PM]

No need to flame you, SR, as I see it. He may well be right. That's not the issue, though. His statement wasn't out of market prediction, but out of the I-hate-M$ attitude. I'd love to see non-DRM music take over the market (with a slim, sexy player to go with it), but he doesn't need to mix MS-hatred with DRM-hatred. Ryan's right, why not Apple? Either way, I only buy CD's, I just wish online music options were better. Flaming MS won't help that, though.

[The Lorax @ Oct 9th 2006 12:00AM]

I think it looks pretty good (at least in pix) I even prefer the brown one. I really don't know why people are bitching so much about the wi-fi. If the thing sells at all they will continue to add features. Remember, J Allard is driving this bus. He isn't a moron.

If Zune was available with a larger drive I'd consider it to replace my 40g 3G ipod. If the software is comparable to itunes I'd swap my ipod for a 60 or 80 gig Zune. I wouldn't buy music from either of the bloodsucker though. Until I can put my digital content wherever I want to these guys don't get my money. I also prefer a model like Audible that lets me re-download books I've purchased. If I'm away on business & want to listen to a book again, I can just re-download.

It will be interesting to see how this thing pans out. It could be the best thiong to happen to ipod fans if it sells. competition is usually good for us consumers.

[Alex S @ Oct 10th 2006 10:29AM]

im just glad apple finally has a competitor that can afford to take them on. this may be a noob question...so am i to understand that this device will not be able to play stuff i already have? just stuff i download from their crappy store?

[biofusion @ Oct 8th 2006 7:11PM]

This guy is such an idiot. Less than 50,000 units? You must be on crack. While it won't outsell the iPod it will easily hit large numbers. This is Microsoft's first round, I wouldn't be surprised that once we see Zune 2 it has a much larger team and budget behind it. Also isn't this a product of 2006...whatever.

[allyn @ Oct 8th 2006 9:09PM]

"isn't this a product of 2006"

not yet. and unlikely to to be. at this point it's still vapor-ware.

even if they manage a November release, which i personally doubt, it is unlike to be until the end of November and we won't really have a feel for whether or not it's going to be a success until well into 2007

[AJ @ Oct 8th 2006 7:15PM]

Sorry for double posting but I thought that I better elaborate, thank you SR.

[Nimo @ Oct 8th 2006 7:16PM]

Look, anyone with even a single brain cell knows that the Zune will sell alot more than 50,000 units. I just can't understand how he managed to convince himself otherwise.

I, for one, will be buying one on or close to launch. That makes it 49,999 to go.

[d3v1|n @ Oct 8th 2006 7:23PM]

If the Zune is an unmitigated failure, will Microsoft concede to Apple or keep plugging away for the sake of it?

[helio9000 @ Oct 8th 2006 7:30PM]

What find funny is that this is the first time, from what I can tell, that engadget has ever cared about anything this guy has had to say even though he is constantly opining on everything in the tech world. So why this? Do we really need him to us DRM is bad? Do you? I think not since you have already come out strongly against the Zune and with good reason. (It is however comical that there are already more "DRM is bad" posts around the unreleased Zune than there are about the (actually successful and king of DRM) iTunes store.)

This reminds of the tech columnist who said that the Vista Beta was the worst OS experience ever and suddenly he looked at as some sort of authority with hundreds of trackbacks even though no blog I'd seen had ever linked to him before - despite the fact that he writes a couple columns a week and is always getting early looks. Somehow his bits on Vista getting its act together didn�t rate a callout.

My guess is that you don�t actually care at all what Robertson thinks about anything so why bother to link to him now? Just to hear points that you have already made? Is it just easier to pile on and link to people to back you up than find material that is actually useful or compelling?

[Qwikstreet @ Oct 8th 2006 7:35PM]

I think it won't be as great as MS wishes but it will definetly sell over 50,000. Christ, MS will buy at least that many and give them away for promotions, employee gifts, and just to put this guy in his place.

The iPod will still be top dog in this race.

[Dave Mendez @ Oct 8th 2006 7:48PM]

Zune is definitley a step in the right direction; an evolutionary step and Apple is definitley nervous right now. Zune is on track to do what Apple hasn't been able to do..........grow this digital music/video player saturated market. Apple took a bite out of what was a very early rumored zune feature (Xbox live arcade)

I'm getting one; articles like this don't have any influence whatsoever.

[nick @ Oct 8th 2006 7:42PM]

DRM is bad market and bad for the consumer?

Duh! But how is this any different from Blu-ray and HD DVD?

[Bloobie @ Oct 8th 2006 7:43PM]

Brian: Did you actually read his blog post? He does criticize Apple's iTunes and its DRM right in the first sentence, so it is not all MS-hatred (despite what you may like to think).

The big question is, do YOU even know if the Zune will be a hit? No, you do not. In an already over-saturated market, the odds are against it. At least, in its first iteration.

[Kemikal Burn @ Oct 8th 2006 7:44PM]

"I've been looking for a good verb to describe losing all of your music to DRM because it's increasingly common and I think I have one: zune."

What about the iPod? Shouldn't we be worrying about that instead?

[Stymie @ Oct 8th 2006 7:52PM]

Zune has already caused a huge drop in Ipod prices. I don't know how anyone could look at the pricing on Apple's new devices as anything other than a preemptive strike at Zune. To me, that already makes Zune (and consumers) a winner.

I don't own any DRM music. I rip my own, so I don't need to worry about being locked into a player. That said, Zune looks OK. I'll check it out when it comes out to see if I will trade my Ipod for it. But either way, Zune's existance has knocked $50-100 off the video Ipods. A future Zune to challenge to Nano will probably increase competition and affect prices for flash memory players as well.

I also look at the Xbox. The first generation got killed by the PS2 (in terms of sales), but it built up a good collection of software titles and a reputation as a good gaming machine. The Xbox360 may reverse the standings and put Sony in 2nd place once the PS3 is released. Won't know until they actually start selling, but it would have been hard to predict a year or two ago.

[Aaron @ Oct 10th 2006 10:15PM]

The Zune didn't cause Apple to reduce their prices. Apple reduced the prices on the iPod *before* the Zune's pricing was even announced.

If anything, Microsoft dropped their prices to match Apple's.

[billybobjoe @ Oct 8th 2006 7:55PM]

I can't believe I have an impersonater posting comments with my name. Sweet!

[uclatommy @ Oct 8th 2006 8:06PM]

This guy is a big dufus. How in the world does he make more money than all of us? Its so unfair.

Is he just being a troll? Or does he really believe what he's saying? I, for one, would love for Apple to maintain a large comfortable lead in the market because it would be good for my portfolio, but its not going to come true just by saying so.

[Fisher @ Oct 8th 2006 8:10PM]

Everyone and their illiterate grandmother owns an Ipod. That is the no 1 reason why I do not want one, plus the Zune beats it in the functionality department. I couldn't care less about the size.
Also, buying Zune doesn't mean I wan to buy DRMed music. What a tool!

[strider_mt2k @ Oct 8th 2006 8:13PM]

DRM sucks.

[Reg @ Oct 8th 2006 8:24PM]

50,000 ???

There are more Microsoft worshipping blogs than that.

All of those people will be buying one, just to show their allegiance to Microsoft.

That's even without the consumer market, which will be a magnitude higher than that.

The DRM issue has almost nothing to do with my or many other people's use of an MP3 player, whether it is an iPod (nice), Zune (okay), Creative (bland), Sony (quirky), etc.

For the simple reason: I rip from a personal collection of CDs and listen to a wide variety of podcasts.

DRM is totally irrelevant for many people, perhaps even most people.

[chiablo @ Oct 8th 2006 8:25PM]

Wait wait wait...

the founder of MP3.com and Lindows is trying to predict the failure of something? If he was remotely good at predicting failure, he wouldn't have created what he has.

[Paul @ Oct 8th 2006 8:31PM]

Wow, what a tool. Considering the product isnt even released yet, he really cannot comment on how well its going to do. This is the exact same BS that happened when the Xbox came out. "It wont succeed since sony owns the market." "Its big, bulky and ugly, and no one will buy it." If you have been living under a rock for the past 15 years then you wouldnt know that MS is gigantic and has a lot of connections, alot of industry power, and always makes its large investments worthwhile. So saying that MS will only sell < 50,000 units is just sheer stupidity. Why does no one make these same accumptions about companies like sony or creative labs who also make mp3 products to compete with the ipod...Well its because of anti-M$ losers like Michael Robertson, who spout their mouth off because they are bitter, not because they know the facts. In reality, Microsoft is the only possible compeditor with Apple's Ipod and the only company that stands a chance in breaking Apple's hold on that market ... I myself have an ipod and probably will not by a zune until my ipod breaks, or the zune gets more appealing features... just listen to the dam.n music and stop freakin whining Michael Robertson just because you're poor :-p

[biofusion @ Oct 8th 2006 9:05PM]

I couldn't agree more.

[paul @ Oct 8th 2006 9:15PM]

I have a honest question for Engadget or any of the Engadget readers! I am not for DRM, but in regards to Apples DRM: Is DRM really that bad (apples drm). Granted I only use an ipod 4th gen and itunes (which i was happy with until 7). Otherwise, I have never run into an issue using apples DRM. Is it simplely the desire to purchace music that you don't have to use with apple software or hardware?

[Mark Engels @ Oct 8th 2006 9:32PM]

Nobody can take down the iPod. It's too popular among everyone. Teens are always asking for the latest iPod. I hate Apple and love Microsoft and even I know the Zune is a wasted effort.

[John Papola @ Oct 8th 2006 9:53PM]

Anyone crazy excited about Zune is a delusional fanboy and probably an ignorant Apple basher (or just plain ignorant). Why would you want to buy into a closed music system being developed by a company with a long history of favoring corporate partners over consumers and flaky, screw-you-when-you-need-it-most DRM (playsforsure, WGA). The wireless "feature" isn't worth the size increase.

I mean, come on people! If you're simply looking for ease of use and the most reliable DRM system, get an iPod. At least you're buying into the richest hardware platform and media/accessory ecosystem. There's a reason why the iPod + iTunes is number one without being illegally bundled (the Microsoft does with WMP and Urge).... it's the best.

[Pitta @ Oct 8th 2006 10:02PM]

Honestly. Who the hell buys from iTunes or any other DRM'd music store. It's no cheaper than buying CD's on launch day, or buying them when they aren't popular anymore.

All this bitching about DRM and the Zune is no diffrent that iTunes/iPod. I personally want a Zune for the widescreen and WMV support. Extra vid options + wide screen = a win for me.

No 1 device will appeal to every consumer. I own a 60gb 5G iPod. I loved it, for a while. I'm personally getting sic of the little bull shit quirks that make it frustrating to use sometimes. A) the scroll wheel goes nutz and makes the volume or menues go up and down. B) Playing the first song in an album sometimes skips alomast the whole CD before it decides to play a song. Before that I 40GB 4g B&W, and a 60GB 4G iPod Photo, so dont start flaming "HATER", because I loved my time with it. I'm just ready to move on.

Anyone buying a Zune soley for the WiFi is crazy, because the current useage is retarted. The one thing M$ has going for them is Over the Net updates. They have been real successful on my Windows Vista machine, and on my Xbox 360 (I also own a PS2, and every nintendo system ever, so no fanboyism there).

With half of the old Xbox dashboard team working on the Zune, and thier ability to listen to the community, makes me really excited about support after launch, and thier ability to change the WiFi usage in the coming months. WHo knows, it could be as early as Jan/Feb 07.

So - DRM, since I either crack the DRM or buy CD's, there is no reason other than the 80GB iPod that I SHOULDN'T try out a Zune.

[John Papola @ Oct 8th 2006 10:13PM]

Hate to break it to you but that screen on the Zune is 4:3, not widescreen. It's simply rotated 90 degrees. It's also the same resolution as the iPod's screen and a mere .5 inches bigger. It's truly baffling that anyone would be championing the Zune as a wildly superior video platform to the iPod.

If you want a video player, look into the creative products... especially given the lack of video offerings at the Zune Marketplace when it's released.

[Shawn O @ Oct 9th 2006 3:10AM]

While it's true that the screen is only .5" bigger it actually gives you 40% more viewable area (do the math based on square inches, suprising but true).

Of course that doesn't change the fact that like others have noted, it's still 4:3 and the same resolution as a video iPod.

[mike @ Oct 8th 2006 10:09PM]

Brian: Did you actually read his blog post? He does criticize Apple's iTunes and its DRM

--

Without copyright, the content creators disappear.

No music = Bad thing.

[portalz @ Oct 8th 2006 10:13PM]

MS will own this market and Steve Jobs knows it - he must be crapping his cords.

EVERY SINGLE anti MS thing in here was said about xBox, and 2 years on; the xBox brand is hella strong.. I'm a Nintendo fanboy and I still went and got a 360 and its frickin fookin great in my opinion. The fact that Zune will be part of the same ecosystem as xBox; it being xBox Live, then I'm already hooked in just based on that alone.#

This guy that said less than 50,000 must be the biggest dickhead you ever quoted / spoke about because 50,000 is just plain stupid; he's just had his credibility take a flying leap out the window. What a prick.

Here's the deal and you all know it - iPod will hang on in there for quite some time as its a great product and brand - but three years from now iPod will be second to Zune - and that's whether you, I or anyone else likes it or not. I think MS will see this one thorugh until the end and get it right - they know there's a hella lot at stake in the music game and it's about time Apple had some competition anyway - they've had it way way too easy. I know that none of you Apple fanboys want it cos' what happened last time..... but it's just too bad; that 95% share of installed world computers will be another aspect of getting Zune in people's faces. Think about that. Take off the 15% for businesses, then you have a consumer market of 80% VS 5% Apple. That's a make or break figure and Apple must know that. Apple must hold their market but it will become a niche in the ever expamnding world of digital music. It's been stagnant for sometime and I think MS plan to take it next level. .. and like people have said - that can only be good for us; the consumer.

[John Papola @ Oct 8th 2006 11:16PM]

"MS will own this market... xbox... 5% Apple"

Portalz,
First of all, the Xbox remains a failure in virtually every sense that matters as a business (I do own one and think it's a great product, btw). MS had dumped Billions in losses into the Xbox and they're a VERY distant second to the PS2, which to this day outsells it AND the Xbox 360. So, you may like it, and it may be good, but it's not a success. Any company could capture 20% of a market by pouring Billions from a Monopoly slush fund into a project.

Second, there is absolutely no meaningful corollary between the history of the Mac OS vs. Windows and this digital media battle. Apple remains the only cross-platform media system, which means the iPod + iTunes provides more meaningful choice than Zune ever will since Zune is tied to the "protect windows with a moat of windows-only products" strategy. You won't see Zune on mac or linux. So much for choice.

Apple has the momentum and that only creates more momentum... more third party peripherals... more content exclusives... more network effects. Combine that with Apple's aggressive pricing and rapid product refreshing (something John Sculley never did with the Mac in the 80s and 90s) and you have a completely different competitive environment.

And let's not forget that the iPod has been a profitable business from day one and continues to be so at an epic scale. That Microsoft will sell the Zune at a loss is frankly disgusting and should be illegal (since they're leveraging their monopoly money to enter new markets at a loss... aka price dumping). All this is going to do is kill their "playsforsure" partners while Apple makes billions and picks up new customers who've now been burned by playsforsure. In 10 years, they'll be number 2, just like they are and will be in video games. An unprofitable, windows-subsidized #2.

[Pitta @ Oct 9th 2006 12:12AM]

As for it not being widescreen, its still larger. The creative offerings are even larger than the Zune, and as I said before... Who the hell buy's drm'ed shit? I could care less what the Zune has in the store. I'll be converting my own videos from DVD. The fact that I can make them WVM and play them in my PC, ZUne, And 360 is a few more jumps I won't have to tak ewhen I used to make Movies for my iPod.

Argue all you want. The Zune just fits me better.

[portalz @ Oct 8th 2006 10:21PM]

John - the ratio is the same but fact is that the screen is bigger and its wider - there's no loss in sharpness like some idiots are sayin; cos then a 32" TV would look shit next to a 28"; doesn't work like that. the wide aspect ration is supposed to be coming later on, and that screen will accomodate that - the main reason I would say that its a vastly superior video platform is because of the format support and WMV is a winner for me... you are right that Creative actually has had better video than iPod for some time now, but see; that's fashion trends for you..... people will still go with a lesser good because of brand and athstetics, and why not!

[c.Lake @ Oct 8th 2006 10:21PM]

Shouldn�t he have waited until the ZUNE player is actually released, BEFORE making such a bold statement? He could be absolutely right about it being a flop in �07, but still. I�m certainly not buying one, but someone else mighty.

But what the hell�s up with Microsoft NOT supporting their OWN product? �Plays for sure� was their little marking invention. (Which, I always thought was stupid) NOW they�re not supporting it any more? How many devices have �plays for sure� slapped all over it? How many people who�ve bought into this crap are going to be completely screwed-over by it?

[nimbus @ Oct 8th 2006 11:37PM]

Uhh, don't M$ fans rip on the PS3? Last time I checked, that isn't out yet.

Zune will be an average MP3 player. iPod, honestly, is about to change things AGAIN. With the release of iTV, the iPod will heavily be used as your "portable movie storage" to bring by other's houses to watch on their iTV equipped TVs. That will start in 2007.

M$ is doing all they can to put the Zune's name in the same sentence as the iPod, don't you think that's funny? Last thing I need is a "windows walkman." I can't believe how people down Apple, and follow Windows-trash so blindly. Isn't Vista 2 years late? Go do some catch-up.

[Shawn O @ Oct 9th 2006 2:59AM]

A few reasons Microsoft is using a different model for Zune:

1. Microsoft realized that the average person actually prefer being a sheep, I mean "ease of use", and would rather have one store that plugs into their one piece of hardware.

2. PlaysForSure has been out for awhile and it hasn't broken the iPod's marketshare so they decided to try a different tact. If PlaysForSure has failed on 15 other devices why add another to the list?

3. They are still supporting the PlaysForSure technology for their partners, just not on the Zune.

4. The people that have bought into the "crap" of PlaysForSure are a lot less screwed than anyone that has bought into the "FairPlay" iTunes crap. iTunes only plays on iPod, while there are at least multiple devices that PlaysForSure plays on.

5. None of this really matters because hopefully no one is buying music that is crippled by PlaysForSure OR iTune's FairPlay.

[c.Lake @ Oct 9th 2006 11:43PM]

Nimbus� What the hell has that got to do with the price of eggs? What the hell are you even talking about? I OWN an iPod genius! (And an iRiver) Where in my entire statement was I rooting FOR the ZUNE?

Look if YOU want to buy a Zune� go a head. Don�t bite my head off about it just because you don't know how to read.

[Kevin @ Oct 8th 2006 10:24PM]

The Lindows guy? Ha!

I'm a Linux user, and I'm shocked that someone who would CHARGE for Linux would hate DRM. Lindows just sucks. It's designed to be like Windows -- and it is, it's just as insecure.

The Zune will slowly become big. Why? Because Apple has set themselves up for failure. Those batteries are going to die down the road, and when this big, huge competitor with the big multi-million-dollar ad campaign is in town, there are going to be some BIG changes.

And to comment on the DRM situation, Apple is just as guilty. They don't even allow you to get your files OFF your iPod. At least Zune let's you share somehow.

[Chris Chance @ Oct 8th 2006 10:37PM]

Wow these guys are LAME....

MICROSOFT KNOWS THAT ZUNE WILL NOT BEAT THE IPOD OR EVEN COME CLOSE TO IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

They have already said they wont be seeing any return on investment for atleast 5 years thats 2010/11 this isnt a small plan people its a longterm project microsoft is undertaking.

50,000 lol this guys a joke and DRM isnt exactly microsofts problem its every plays, look at FairPlay ... why is fairplay ok but play for sure and zune drm bad somehow????

[Chris Chance @ Oct 8th 2006 10:41PM]

This coming from the guy that made sipphone... a failure when compaired to skype in any way at all LOL

And Lindows probably the worst build of linux... ya... another failure... could he be more lame?

Perhaps he should look at his own projects before criticizing other projects... especially ones run by multi-billion dollar companys with one of the biggest name brands IN THE WORLD... Apples a big company, but Microsoft in general is much bigger.

[Sam @ Oct 8th 2006 10:45PM]

Is Micro$oft going to take a $100 or so hit on each zune sold like they did/do wil the Xbox and 360? if so, i say buy a millions, and screw the Micro$oft Music Store (MSMS???), just rip and DL DRM-Free music

[Sam @ Oct 8th 2006 10:46PM]

Is Micro$oft going to take a $100 or so hit on each zune sold like they did/do wil the Xbox and 360? if so, i say buy a millions, and screw the Micro$oft Music Store (MSMS???), just rip and DL DRM-Free music