Michael Robertson calls out Zune as biggest flop of 2007
By Ryan Block 
posted October 8th 2006 6:34PM
posted October 8th 2006 6:34PM
In our line of work we hear a lot of noise from the talking heads day in and out, but we can't help biting down on this latest hook courtesy of Michael Robertson. The anti-tech-powerexec is known for founding MP3.com, Lindows / Linspire, Skype competitor SIPphone, and DRM-free online music sales biz MP3tunes, not to mention former employer of DRM freedom fighter Jon Johansen -- so it shouldn't come as much of a surprise that after the ruckus being raised around the Zune's crippled WiFi and worthless DRM system that he stepped in to take a potshot. We're with him a hundred percent on railing against DRM and the somewhat absurd position Microsoft is taking by scrapping PlaysForSure in their own device efforts (what he calls "Screwed for Sure"), but things get a little bombastic: "At first glance the features seem compelling but my prediction is it will be the biggest flop of 2007 with less than 50,000 units sold worldwide." Also, says Robertson, "I've been looking for a good verb to describe losing all of your music to DRM because it's increasingly common and I think I have one: zune." Only 50,000 units? Doubtful; and maybe it's a little much to repurpose the product name to summarily encompass a near universal embitterment for digital rights management (after all, wouldn't "ipod" work better, especially after the podsuits?), but we're absolutely not going to argue his thesis: DRM is bad market and bad for the consumer.
what an prick....This is coming from a guy who no one cares about first of all, secondly, lindows (a complete piece of shit), Sipphone(what a joke - terrible voip)and god dont even get me started on mp3.com, will go down as the most worthless piece of websites ever.....
This coming from the guy that made sipphone... a failure when compaired to skype in any way at all LOL
And Lindows probably the worst build of linux... ya... another failure... could he be more lame?
Perhaps he should look at his own projects before criticizing other projects... especially ones run by multi-billion dollar companys with one of the biggest name brands IN THE WORLD... Apples a big company, but Microsoft in general is much bigger.
Is Micro$oft going to take a $100 or so hit on each zune sold like they did/do wil the Xbox and 360? if so, i say buy a millions, and screw the Micro$oft Music Store (MSMS???), just rip and DL DRM-Free music
Is Micro$oft going to take a $100 or so hit on each zune sold like they did/do wil the Xbox and 360? if so, i say buy a millions, and screw the Micro$oft Music Store (MSMS???), just rip and DL DRM-Free music
This coming from someone whose every venture has been nothing but a flop, especially the over hyped and eventual failure that is LinSpire, which aimed to put an operating system that no one wants in the hands of every consumer.
Sour grapes.
"That Microsoft will sell the Zune at a loss is frankly disgusting and should be illegal (since they're leveraging their monopoly money to enter new markets at a loss... aka price dumping)."
What? Apple's dropping the price on iPod to keep a monopoly, yet Microsoft taking a lose to penetrate the market should be illegal?
True, DRM sucks but online music wouldn't be available without it. So far, a lot of people have complained about DRM but nobody has given an example of how we could legally download music without DRM and satisfy the RIAA and the artists.
Michael Robertson has always been a sensationalist and a bit dramatic. It's easy to lob this criticism.
Eric
John Papola,
All fair points you made. What i was saying is that xBox brand is very very strong. Everyone said it would flop - no one would buy; what do MS know about games consoles... well; remember they had a hand in the Sega Dreamcast (GREAT console BTW) and got a taste then went flat out. MS have proved all the doubters wrong by building a console that game fans will buy. Yes XBox went at a loss but you (like most people) forget that very often hardware sells at loss because money is made on accessories and GAMES! so your sums will not be correct by any means, believe me. What I also said is that; with Zune tieing with xBox live' MS are onto a winner. Live is an incredible service in my opinion. Its secure and flawless in all my months using it. In fact - I never understand how they made such a flawless system and then fail when it comes to normal com OS.. very weird? Anyway - momentum doesn't count for that much in my opinion. It does count but not as much as you would make out... many brands have existed and fallen or become a niche; which if MS does take digital music next level - I think apple could end up being - just like their computers..
I will certianly get a Zune just to check it out and I'm excited also like someone mentioned that the Xbox and Live crew are working on this; if it aint 100% right now, it soon will be. You'll see; and remember this moment so I can say 'told you so...'
I just want to point out a few quick things. #1, windows media 11 is turning the DRM screws even tighter, no longer allowing DRM'd music to be transfered between computers you own. #2, just remember that the Zune wireless is worthless thanks to it's DRM, even if both participants have Zune subscriptions.
This is all occuring while Apple has enabled the iPod to transfer DRM'd music from one computer to another. Apple, as usual, is fighting for the rights of the consumer, whether it's liberal DRM or lower prices for media. And before anyone starts blabbing about fixed priced music stiffling lower prices for old stuff... go to rapsody or napster and see if you can find any 25c golden oldies.
MS is a business-to-business company that has continued to happily favor the needs of the RIAA and MPAA over users. If anyone thinks that MS is going to "take digital music to the next level" (whatever that even means) they are deluding themselves. They'll take DRM to the next level and already have by creating a device that adds DRM to non-DRM content on the fly. That's the "next level" for microsoft.
Supplying an OS for a console doesn't put you in the console market, it puts you in the software licensing market. MS's dealing with Sega in regards to the Dreamcst was not too far removed from their dealing with Dell and the PC market.
Yes, consoles are sold at loss and become profitable through game sales, but you need a good sized base of customers and then have those customers buy a fair number of games to get you out of the hole. The xbox had a much smaller base (big sales in the US, weak everywhere else) and had far too many customers buying only 3-5 games and that was it, which was not enough to offset the loss of selling the console. Forbes magazine estimated last year (shortly before the xbox line was discontinued) that the xbox division had lost $4 billion over four years. Remember, on top of selling hardware at loss, they still have to spend buckets on marketing and things like that power cord recall.
http://www.forbes.com/business/global/2005/1003/036A_4.html
I predict that the zune will be a success. It'll eat a little into Apples market. It will drive other players like IRiver, Creative to the brink.
One obvious key to Apple's success is that they actualy advertise I-Pods heavily. How many commercials for non-ipods has any one seen on broadcast television?
That's where Microsoft somes in, I think they will actualy buy some commercial time for the zune player.
We all know Microsoft sucks, but the general public doesn't or that DRM is evil and will be willing to give the zune a try.
Here is why they won't beat apple:
- For some reason I don't see microsoft developing a platform that's as easy to use.
- Play-for-sure. Sorry but that's just silly, to ignore an existing segment of the market. Yes it might be small, but every bit helps.
- Microsoft is not cool, Apple just is.
- Price. Apple droping the price was a huge bomb. In one swoop they took out one of Microsoft's major selling points. After shouting from the mountain top that they will not be undersold, all thet can come back with is one penny.
One thing that will happen for sure is that there will be a shake out of competitors in the market. Microsoft stepping in is a major slap to the face of it's partners. After convincing major players into building on the play-for-sure platform, this is the thanks they get.
Im buying a Creative Zen Vision W i can play DIVX on it! haves the same 30GB of space and only costs $20 more which are worth for the freedom to play any media that i want.
Is anyone else sick of kids saying "M$". The dollar sign was cool about two years ago....
And is anyone not paying attention here? I will buy a Zune because I neevr liked any of my ipods (own 4 of them thus far[and no i dont think apple is a horrible copamy]), but this is good for competition.
I think the Zune will keep Apple on its toes, because who else did apple owrry about? creative????
MP3? Ogg Vorbis? AAC? WMA? Lol.
If I wanted my music castrated just so it could fit on my cheap DAP or HD, I would have asked for it. Michael Robertson can talk all he wants, but DRM is half the issue. Lossy audio; buying something with less-than-CD-quality from the start is the other half. Not to mention losing even more quality when converting to another lossy format.
Any company or artist that actually cares about the intelligence of their customer offers FLAC downloads
http://flac.sourceforge.net
...because it's 2006 and we need to go beyond the CD, not backwards.
--------------------------
Now just a word about the wording of this article:
DRM freedom fighter Jon Johansen?
http://www.engadget.com/2006/10/02/dvd-jons-is-back-to-once-again-make-fairplay-fair/
That guy?
Make that:
DRM Jon. The new face of reverse-engineering for profit! Licensing UnFairPlay on the grey market!
Let's call him for what he is, shall we. Time moves on, and he's obviously moved on looking to get rich on the iPod bandwagon. He will probably do well, seeing that nobody seems to care about their rights being abused so subtly by Digital Rights Restricted lossy audio, bit by bit (har! pun).
The artists can finally reach their audiences directly online without hefty distribution costs, and we can finally support them directly financially, yet we have all these suits telling us what lifeless corporate music we should be buying, which player we should be buying and what restrictions they want us to live under. Shameful.
Portalz: you're missing his point. If MS didn't have billions to lose on Xbox, the platform would be *dead*--there never would have been a 360 (they didn't even come remotely close to recouping the *billions* they lost by the money made on software licensing fees.) No other company but MS could afford to throw away such huge sums of cash in an endeavor that was a failure on a massive level. If you like their forays into gaming, great. But do not kid yourself: the Xbox brand has yet to have a single profitable quarter and likely won't have one any time soon (that 10 million sold by EOY is looking pretty dubious at this point.)
Very true Shawn. With PlaysForSure you atleast have a choice of devices, & not just now, but also in the future. Backward compatibility has been msft's forte & I don't see them dumping PlaysForSure anytime in the future.
PlaysForSure (or any kindof DRM licensed out) was the way to go, but apple came out with a superior device and never supported it, nor is it ready to license out FairPlay. It is using FairPlay as an unfair moat to tie in customers to ipod, and people just buy into it.
Maybe msft is not supporting PlaysForSure on zune cause they don't want to eat away into their partners market and are more interested in people who don't mind the lock-in business model. Maybe they had an agreement with PlaysForSure compatible device manufacturers that they won't compete against them. Who knows??
But I sincerely hope sometime in the future msft supports PlaysForSure on Zune.
You Got Zuned (2007)
A Microsoft Production
Tagline: "If you want respect, you've got to take it up a**"
Hmmm, just amazes me that people buy these crap crippled products, you could pick up an HTC pocket phone for free on contract spend 100 dollars on an 8GB card and have wi-fi, bluetooth, internet access, possibly even 3G in Europe, 2mp camera, endless media skins, video record, movie playback, Satnav, touchscreen, game emulators...eggcetera, eggcatera.
DP462090,
#1, Apple doesn't have a monopoly. You are currently able to buy music from a number of different stores and purchase countless other media players. Apple's price drop only works to prove the point that they feel competitive pressures. (unlike, say... Window's Vista's price INCREASES).
#2. Apple is dropping the price of the iPod the old fashion way: economies of scale. You know, the efficiencies that drove the cheap prices of the Wintel world's formerly beloved Dell. The iPod at it's current prices is still very profitable for Apple. The Zune at it's launch price is being sold at a loss.
I mean, the zune is selling for less than the Gigabeat S, which is the same damn hardware save the wifi. Toshiba is slitting their own throat, but at least they're making money on the Zune right? Well, ask nvidia how well it went for them and the xbox 1. I guarantee that Toshiba is involved in this deal as part of some pay-back for MS backing HD-DVD instead of Blueray.
I hope the Zune succeeds on its own merit and keeps Apple innovating and driving down prices at the same rate they've done so far. I'd like to see Apple license fairplay and finally put a nail in the coffin of Windows Media and it's "protect the Windows Monopoly" agenda. We shall see.
Zune will have a fighting chance, although a slim one. I'm likening it to the XBox vs. Playstation battle.
Not sure if this was already said, but there are more than 1 million already presold into retail channels. Circuity City, Best Buy, Radio Shack, Walmart, Fry's, etc - just if each location for these chains buys the minimum stock of 10 per store - that's over a million units.
That said, I think it will be a flop, if you want to be like the Jones' (which the average person does) you'll want an iPod for Christmas.
Little Johnny at school: "Did you get an iPod for Christmas?"
Little Johnny's friend: "No I got a Zune."
Little Johnny: "Oh"
Littler Johnny to another friend with back to previous friend: ""Did you get an iPod for Christmas?"
Little Johnny's other friend: "Yeah"
Little Johnny: "Cool, which one?"
Michael Robertson has been riding on the coat-tails of others' efforts for years. I actually worked with him at CERFNet... he is arrogant, but hey, that's what made him rich! Come to think of it, that's also what made ol' Billy Gates rich... hmmm. I do think he's correct though, Zune will flop. Once people begin to experience problems with the DRM, once it begins to cost them money, blue screens on them, etc... it will flop and flop miserably. The reports will hit the web, people will get discouraged, and Microsoft for once will really lose money on a project. Keep in mind also that the only reason the X-Box has broken even, is that people found ways around it's DRM. Hacking Zune will be very hard... therefore, people will avoid this device like the plague.
Hi Will,
It is Marc Robinson here. Remember me from our NMCI days?? I read an article of yours in TheNetworkAdministrator but the email did not work. Glad to see that you are enjoying your job in Florida.
I have been meaning to drop you a line for a while, but just never got around to it. Sorry about that. I have read some of your other articles on the NA site…pretty good. These are exciting times now that Macs have Intel processors. Makes my G4 stuff seem like Pentium IIs.
Just wanted to stay in touch, and to thank you for helping us out with your knowledge of tools when we took that Cisco Security course a couple of years back.
If you want, send a reply to the above, and I will get back to you.
Take care,
Marc
Actually, this wireless feature is fantastic. I'm often out talking with someone playing a song off their iPod or clone and it would be great to trade with them.
There, of course, has to be a critical mass for this sort of thing to have any effect, but it's something all players should do. Fortunately, MSFT adding this in is just good for consumers, and now Apple and the other have to think about integration of a similar feature.
ugh where do i begin....the zune is crap...brings nothing new to the market....except wifi...which im sure drains the crap out of battery-life..and is pretty uselss. "Zune is on track to do what Apple hasn't been able to do...grow this digital music/video player saturated market"...uh...there were plenty of mp3 players before the ipod..apple took a product and made it simple and easy to use/find content, because of that they expanded the mp3 market exponentially...so i don't know where that claim came from...drm sucks but if we made music we'd wanna make money on it....so its something we have to/should live with
The odds are highly against the zune so it’s safe to say that they will fail. Plus the company that makes it is turning their backs on the very thing they support “playsforsure” as a consumer that isn’t helping me put down my ipod and try another brand, but it will make me go with the company that stands by its own products and MS isn’t it.
WMA is a horrible codec. RealNetworks was right to dump it and go with its own flavor of AAC.
Mike's comments are worth reporting on, not because of his prediction but because of the new verb "zune". It's funny. And Mike has been a long time crusader against DRM and critic of Apple as well. And particular hatred of Microsoft is derived from Microsoft killing his former MP3.com bussiness, so he has damm good reason to hate Micro$haft.
This guy is an arrogant fool. Zune's success on the market is completely orthogonal to this guy's nerdy dislike of DRM.
You can't say that with certainty. Once upon a time, the MPAA said they'd never support the VCR. The established industries resisted piano rolls, record players, the radio, cassette tapes...
Meanwhile, AllofMP3 and emusic both sell un-DRMed tracks, and both are commercial successes. Yes, AllofMP3 has a questionable pedigree and the RIAA is unhappy with their existence, but that doesn't mean they've shut them down.
There is a long history of disruptive technologies being resisted by the incumbent organizations. Every time we've seen that the newer technology actually causes an increase in business for anyone willing to re-think their views and jump to the next step.
Robertson makes some good points, if you can sort through the fog of bias in his points. He clearly has an agenda, and Zune's success means business taken away from his interests.
Zune's DRM is heavy-handed, but no more so than iPod - at least Zune makes it convenient to share music, even you *do* eventually have to pay for content.
I hope a future release of Zune won't apply DRM to non-protected content. Right now, there's no reliable way to tell if a track is something you recorded in your garage, or something you burned-and-ripped in order to remove DRM protection.
But I'll take any bet he puts on the table about Zune selling less than 50,000 units.
http://www.zunerama.com
The idea of people thinking Vista and the Zune are necessarily greater than Apple's Tiger and current iPod is because Microsoft always demoes products beforehand giving everyone the idea that they have the best products out. Open your eyes people, the Zune might have a shitty .5" larger screen and a terribly useless wi-fi music sharing feature, but we have yet to see Apple's equivalent to 6th generation iPod to come out soon. The Zune isn't out yet. Sure Microsoft can demo a product that will coem out in 2009 and everyone will say how awesome it is but keep in mind that you can't use it because it isn't out yet.
It's a shame they didn't give it the ability to download songs over WiFi. That would put it head and shoulders above the iPod, bulk and clunkiness included.
Looking through some of the comments here and I think part of the problem (and let's face it, Microsoft did it to themselves on this one) is that we don't really know exactly how the Zune will work and what it will let us do or won't do - and whether it's a permanent situation or just this version.
What we DO know is this: the Zune will play DRMed purchased music and non-DRMed personally ripped music files. This is EXACTLY the same as the iPod. So if it's evil for the Zune, it's just as evil for the iPod.
The Zune has WiFi file sharing - which is fairly unique - BUT it limits ALL shared files to "3x3" - three plays in three days. This is where the contention comes in. Contrary to early reports, the Zune does NOT wrap files in DRM, but the effect of what it actually does is essentially as bad since it apparently applies the same 3x3 limit to all music files, DRMed or not.
Worse, it doesn't seem allow recovery of non-DRMed files sent by WiFi. This is probably the worst failure of the lot since it means you can't pass a file to someone wirelessly, you can only send it for playback on the 3x3 rule.
It has to be noted... the iPod doesn't have this feature, so we just don't know what Apple would have done, so comparisons are essentially speculations. Apple could have easily included a way to connect two iPods over Firewire (That's one of the more touted features of Firewire, no? The ability to connect without having a computer involved?) and let you copy file between iPods - but Apple decided not to do that.
So, as to DRM - I'm going to disagree with the general view here. DRM is not evil. It's just a way to make sure people don't distribute music for free. Like it or not, this is a legitimate concern. If you don't like DRM, it's simple: don't BUY MUSIC with DRM. This is basic market practice - if you don't like it, vote with your pocketbook. Buy the CD and rip your own copy. Which you can play on both iPods and Zunes - btw...
The problem isn't DRM per se - it's how it's implemented and in this respect, the Zune's DRM is actually more generous than the iPods - because at least it lets you share DRMed music a little bit, while the iPod's doesn't even give you that.
In the end, the ONLY thing the Zune does wrong is that it applies the 3x3 rules to non-DRMed music sent by WiFi (maybe, since we really don't know for sure, yet) - a feature the iPod doesn't even support at all. If you use the Zune without the WiFi Sharing, then you're using a device that's essentially an iPod with a bigger screen and possibly a nicer user interface.
What you've got to understand is that the iPod has become a marketing success. Since its launch it has we have entered into an iPod era - a cult. When average joe thinks about buying a music player he thinks of an iPod not a Zune! Ask any kid on the block if they know a music player and he/she will name you the iPod. Everyone wants to buy the cool stuff and Apple knows that and that's the reason for their "ultra" cool trendy breakdance fever commercials. Their audience are the breakdance, hip hop etc. youths. iPods are everywhere movies, CSI etc. The iPod and the Apple logo have been imprinted in our minds hence the success and reason why Zune will not beat the iPod.
The second reason is that Apple has the patent rights on the user interface and wheel. Its the easiets navigation system available IMHO. Zune cannot copy that hence that users will feel uneasy with browsing. Apple capitalizes on navigation and user interface - they know that what is comfortable for the user will sell. They dominate that patent hence why when i pick up music mp3 player i look at what feels easier to navigate. The same can be said for Sony Ericsson mobile phones. I always found the navgation easier then say Samsung D500 which is a nightmare of menues and options.
Third aspect I believe is that its great that Zune has been launched because if Apple was allowed to be the only player competitative practices would be a problem like they have been for M$ with the EU Commission. Another thing is that at least this will keep Apple on its toes and keep innovating.
Is it just me or do the people buying a zune/hyping it, have no idea what it does. It has no store. As of right now it appears to have no features at all.. except sharing images for "unlimited viewing" (lol gonna DRM my family pics for me Microsoft?), and it does FORCE DRM your music. So those of you saying "I don't use DRM music, so I won't be locked into it, but the zune seems neat" have no idea what you are talking about. What makes the zune worse than the ipod is that it IS forced DRM. It will infect your files even if they were not under DRM before.
I think that sounds like a failure. However all of the people on here who have no idea that this device really does... nothing except infect your files and promise 'neat stuff' in the future have me convinced enough idiots will buy one to make it a success. So I guess thats good for the zune... I guess...
I don't think msft designed DRMs for the love of it, nor did apple. Its the music industry that wants control over its product, & IMHO rightly so. Only if there was a better way to protect against piracy.
And PlaysForSure was a good way to decouple what device you buy and where you buy your music from. But something went wrong somewhere.
I still prefer my (now older) Archos AV420, to a brand new Zune or later-generation iPod.
Zune is like every other Microsoft product, 60% hype and 40% reality. Look at the FACTS -- no video playback, just stills, a restrictive DRM that makes Apple's Fairplay look generous, DRM is added to ALL content, even RIPed CDs, and WiFi that only connects to other Zune players.
Many people will buy a Zune player based on the hype, and then they will feel screwed when they discover how it really works. I agree with the article's assesment.
This anti-DRM thing is nuts. There's two types of anti-DRM people: 1) those who are used to the good ole days of the first Napster and free MP3's with no restrictions; 2) those who are used to “owning” music, especially CD's and are stuck on the idea like the fat receptionist to her Cheryl Tiegs haircut.
Subscription music services are the best thing to ever happen to the industry. Why undermine them? DRM makes subscription services possible. I pay $12 a month and I can download whatever I want, whenever I want and listen to it on my MP3 player (a Gigabeat S, which, by the way is MUCH better than the 5G iPod it replaced). So what if I don't "own" the music? That doesn't stop people from subscribing to XM or Sirius, going to the movie theater or watching cable TV; you don't "own" any of that content. I understand some people are still in CD land in their cars, but I can't remember the last time I burned something to a CD. You can only put a max of 20 tracks on a CD, what's the use of that?
I suggest everyone stop stealing, pay their measly $12 a month, enjoy the freedom to discover new bands without any marginal cost and stop whining about owning your music and transferability to CD's. Both of those are complete non-issues in this day and age. Get with the times, Engadget!
The only thing that worries me is that consumers are going to hold to the antiquated idea of owning music and the record companies are going to be forced to pull their support for subscription services. It would be a real shame. I don't want to go back to CD stores and trolling P2P networks to steal music.
Michael Robertson is a poser. He fell in a bucket of s$$t. He took a look at the top 10 search words on google, found 'mp3' (didn't have a clue what it was), bought the domain name 'mp3.com' and got rich. MP3.com got sued for their 'music locker' idea but I some big company paid for the domain name. He also challenged hackers to hack the xbox360 but backed off after MS lawyers threatened him. He's never made a good buisness decision since buying the domain name. So why listen to him?
I suggest everyone stop stealing, pay their measly $12 a month, enjoy the freedom to discover new bands without any marginal cost and stop whining about owning your music and transferability to CD's. Both of those are complete non-issues in this day and age. Get with the times, Engadget!
--------------
Everything sounds just fine in your earbuds, right? Therefore CDs are old hat!
Sigh. If getting with the times means offering us compressed, lossy garbage tied to proprietary digital formats and DRM schemes tied to licensed hardware put out by corporations hell-bent on collecting fat royalties on every content purchase we make (and still offering the artists almost no compensation, surprise surprise), you'll have to rip the 'prehistoric' (yet superior in every way imaginable) CDs from my cold, dead fingers.
The 'times' allow independents to reach us in open formats with no DRM. The fans, being the supporters of said artist(s), can now enjoy a more intimate contact with the artists and compensate them directly, and know they are making a real difference - and feel good about it, too. But if greedy corporate media controlled by the bigguns dishing out corporate rhythms and ONLY offering lossy, compressed garbage is 'right' for you, far be it for me to get in the way of your 'future'...