Dvorak: Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone

Prepare to have your feathers ruffled Apple fanboys, John Dvorak -- a name synonymous with curmudgeon -- has called on Apple to "pull the plug on the iPhone" and pass it along to some other "suckers" before it's too late. His case? Essentially, as a newcomer "there is no likelihood that Apple can be successful in a [cellphone] business this competitive." Echoing similar sentiments already shared by Palm's Ed Colligan. Of course, we've already witnessed a newcomer step into the mobile handset business, which Dvorak describes as a "buzz saw waiting to chop up newbies," and emerge as the boutique, go-to provider for high-end handsets -- heard of HTC? Hell, you don't have to be a fanboy or even an iPhone fan to feel the retch of nonsensical nausea welling within. Look, we're not saying Apple's success is guaranteed by any stretch, but let's call this rant what it is: shameless attention whoring. Well, he's got it.

[Photo by Jason DeFillippo]

[fredfass @ Apr 24th 2009 11:22PM]

So fun to re-discover these bloviating know-it-all prognosticators' comments, especially when they're SO F'n WRONG!!!! BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH!!!!!!!!

[akintz @ Mar 29th 2007 8:44AM]

You know what rhymes with Dvorak?

Douchebag.

Ok, they don't actually, rhyme. But it's not his money anyway. And I think (hope?) the Apple people know a little more about their own chances of survival in that market than he does. When was the last time he considered entering the mobile phone market?

[Mike @ Mar 29th 2007 8:54AM]

This, coming from the same guy who predicted Apple's death a dozen times over. Why does anyone bother to publish this guy?

"there is no likelihood that Apple can be successful in a [cellphone] business this competitive." Oh really? There's a saying: "You never know until you try."

I'm not saying the iPhone is going to be "all that" but it's certainly not going to go unnoticed when you consider how lame most of today's cell phones are, especially when it comes to multimedia.

[netposer @ Mar 29th 2007 8:51AM]

Dvorak is awesome. He knows how easy it is to get the Apple fanbois pissed off.

[s.fogler @ Mar 29th 2007 8:55AM]

Maybe the iPhone won't be the next "iPod," having over 70% of the marketshare, but that is no reason to not go ahead with a project. Apple has proven time and time again that they can compete in hard markets and they can find a niche. As long as investors and stockholders understand that the iPhone may not make believers out of everyone, they can still be very very successful on a smaller scale.

[bns009 @ Mar 29th 2007 8:53AM]

This video explains exactly what he is doing....... in his own words no less!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SAWDYaWAVQQ&eurl=http%3A%2F%2Fmacdailynews%2Ecom%2Findex%2Ephp%2Fweblog%2Fcomments%2Fdvorak%5Ftrolls%5Fapple%5Fshould%5Fpull%5Fthe%5Fplug%5Fon%5Fthe%5Fiphone%2F
Engadget has it right on the money.

[dfgdfgdf @ Mar 29th 2007 5:46PM]

That guy is my new god :D

[nikster @ Apr 1st 2007 10:45PM]

bns009 thanks so much for that link. i have been saying that forever, he's been attention-whoring for years. i have been trying to ignore him for that reason, 'cause whatever else you do he wins.

seeing that video though has changed my mind about dvorak. i have to admit that he's smarter than you and me, even smarter than those of us who "get it" - because he knows full well for every person who gets it there's 500 or even 5000 who don't, so his scheme works regardless. as dvorak said, it's all about the numbers. the man's a genius and i am just glad he's a mac hack and not someone who could do real damage - like a spin doctor in washington.

[No.Gov @ Mar 29th 2007 9:06AM]

I think dvorak has some valid points in his article, and while I think that saying Apple should just pull the iPhone and call it a reference design is a little ridiculous, for the most part I have to agree. The cell phone business is cut-throat right now and ANY company would be crazy to jump in at the moment. And the iPhone won't be competing against slow-moving competitors either, LG for example already showed a iPhone-like device. I'll admit the marketing team behind the iPhone is probably one of the best in the world, and they have already created an extreme buzz around my university and friends but shame on Engadget for telling a veteran of the tech press an "attention whore"

[Ian Jardine @ Mar 29th 2007 8:59AM]

Ego means that there WIll be an Apple iphone, but it will meet intense competition and pricing. SO it won't make any money for Apple (or anyone else for that matter).

[Sasha S. @ Mar 29th 2007 11:44AM]

The question we should be asking is how much is Dvorak being paid to make statements like this? How much exactly does is cost to be a corporate whore, John?

[Rich @ Mar 29th 2007 9:05AM]

"and emerge as the boutique, go-to provider for high-end handsets -- heard of HTC?"

Whilst HTC fill the gadget columns, their worldwide sales are relatively tiny, even after 5+ years of experience and with the backing of Microsoft.

Their goal for Q2 2007 is between 2-2.5 million unit sales. To put that into context, Nokia sells that many phones every 48-60 *hours*.

There's a strong loyalty to Apple amongst some users and I'm sure they will find some initial success. However, maintaining success in such a complex and cut-throat industry is going to be incredibly difficult. Apple like to control the entire user experience and there's just too many factors outside of their control in the cellular industry.

[xerxesdaphat @ Mar 29th 2007 10:40AM]

`their worldwide sales are relatively tiny'

Hence the word `boutique' being used to describe them.

[Nick @ Mar 29th 2007 2:52PM]

You didn't really put that into context cuz the comparison you made is like comparing the sales of Voodoo PCs (a producer of specialize product with a selective consumer base) to DELL PCs (generic products with a wide consumer base). HTC makes smart phones.. often not the cheapest things around... to a company (NOKIA) that makes a wide variety of phones with variety of purposes and low price points. The lowest priced HTC i could find on LetsTalk.com for the phone only was $329.99... Nokia had 5 models below that price point. Sure HTC isn't as successful as Blackberry or Palm.. but as long as the company is being successful according to its business goals.. why should it just bow out of an industry. More choices in a free market creates stronger competition which creates more creativity, more innovation, and competitive pricing. All of those byproducts are in favor of the consumer.. so why dog a company

iPhone can fail or succeed.. i dont care.. like you said Apples users/consumers are very loyal and the product will be successful within Apples niche user market. I view the device not so much as them trying to take over the Mobile communications market as much as the next step in the evolution of them accommodating their user base with their concept of "iLife". If they can make a product that accommodates their user base then why shouldnt they persue the idea. Sure its an expensive product, but then again most "smart phones" are. Sure its more expensive than some "smart phones", but then again Apple computers are more expensive than some other brands of computers.

[Derek @ Mar 29th 2007 9:16AM]

If Dvorak weren't so pathetic, this would be hilarious. Nobody was reading his shitty columns, so he had to start with the outrageous predictions just to get anyone to pay attention. His crying wolf is now to the point where nobody believes him at all. Curmudgeon? Try 'nobody'.

[Adam Backstrom @ Mar 29th 2007 10:02AM]

Dvorak is the most vocal anti-Apple author I know. After so many years of unilateral negativism, all I can do is dismiss him.

[kadajawi @ Mar 29th 2007 9:44AM]

HTC a newcomer? Uh, yeah right. They have been in the business quite a long time now, building phone after phone. Just because they decided to slap their own logo onto the phones doesn't really make them newcomers to me.

[eikonklast @ Mar 29th 2007 9:26AM]

Who the hell is John Dvorak? Oh, that's right - a nobody. This guy may have mattered in the days of the Commodore 64. Today, he joins a cacophony old timers struggling to remain relevant. Bad news John, you are not. But hey, you should try stand up comedy.

[Martez @ Mar 29th 2007 9:28AM]

I rarely agree with Dvorak's conclusions, but he usually makes good points to support them. Mainly though, I think he's funny. This is exactly the kind of rant I'd expect from him, and the only thing more entertaining than a Dvorak rant is the fanboy backlash that ensues.

[mrmckeb @ Mar 29th 2007 9:54AM]

I think that what he is saying may be true, but only time will tell. Apple's problem is that they like 100% control, and consumers like 100% freedom.

[Alan Strangis @ Mar 29th 2007 9:33AM]

Those knocking Dvorak: LOL!

He IS a comedian, and he TOTALLY games the Mac community, which is fine by me, not so much for how brilliant he is (he isn't) but the responses he generates.

[Ozbone @ Mar 29th 2007 9:33AM]

That Dvorak is probably a semi-intelligent guy, I can swallow. That engadget would actually consider this rant worth posting is something else.

[netposer @ Mar 29th 2007 9:35AM]

Why all the hate for Dvorak anyway? He speaks his mind and says the things fanbois hate which is usually the "truth". It's refreshing to see someone not pander to the iPhone buzz machine.

[g @ Mar 30th 2007 2:03AM]

Funny...today there was an article stating that At&T has received request from a million people to email them when the I-phone is available,and that is just i guess people that are fans.lol crater face might be wrong.

[Rohit Kapur @ Mar 29th 2007 9:36AM]

From Dvorak's page on Wikipedia:

"Dvorak has been a long time critic of Apple Computer, even during his stint as a columnist for MacUser magazine. In 1984 he famously criticized Apple's inclusion of a mouse with their computers, saying “There is no evidence that people want to use these things.” In 1999, he ridiculed the iBook as “‘girly’”, saying, “It looks too juvenile— something a kid, a little girl, would like. Something you'd get at Toys 'R' Us.” For this he was slammed not only by Mac aficionados, but also by female computing pundit Janelle Brown for reinforcing gender stereotypes. In 2005 he suggested that recent good press about Apple was due to media bias, writing “With 90 percent of the mainstream writers being Mac users, what would you expect?” He later predicted that Apple would release a Video iPod in spite of Steve Jobs' denials, suggested that the Mac brand should be discontinued, predicted that Apple would switch to Intel chips, and suggested that Apple might be switching over to Windows and abandoning their Mac OS to save money.

On 9 June 2006, he explained to Dave Winer that he would bait Mac users in order to increase traffic to his website."



Yeah... He sounds like a guy whose advice I'd take.

[Alan Strangis @ Mar 29th 2007 9:45AM]

"Yeah... He sounds like a guy whose advice I'd take."

Why, because he's batting about .500, and got the Intel Mac and video iPod right?

Your sarcasm would be more effective WITHOUT the quote you posted. :)

[Rick Lyon @ Mar 29th 2007 9:50AM]

Didn't I just read yesterday, AT &T or Verizon (can't remember which) had reported ONE MILLION users on the iphone waiting list?! Yea, that's a mega flop at $600 each.....

[August @ Mar 29th 2007 2:53PM]

Right, because all of these alleged one million people are actually going to BUY the phone.

[Jeff Lewis @ Mar 29th 2007 11:24AM]

I believe they said they had a million inquiries about it, not that they have a million people on a waiting list. And we don't really know what they mean by that or how that number was counted.

After all, they want to carry the iPhone and they want it to sound as exciting as possible... like how Sony insists there's a shortage of PS3s out there that they'll have fixed soon, when in fact they define a shortage as 'any store where there aren't enough PS3s to keep the shelves completely full' - as compared to the Wii's definition 'there aren't any to be had anywhere...'.

[amby @ Mar 29th 2007 5:50PM]

LOL. Blinded by the marketing machine??? Don't reference the seller of a product for demand.
If they say 1 million with the initial buzz, than it means half of it. Half-a-million with all the buzz going on? Seems like a dissappointment. (I still don't agree with Dvorak, but you are also on the same level.)

[J @ Mar 29th 2007 10:00AM]

Predicting a 'video ipod' is a bit different than saying that 'nobody wants to use a mouse'. His 2 predictions that WERE correct are simple product releases that a lot people predicting. He's batting .000 for product flops.

[Rohit Kapur @ Mar 29th 2007 10:40AM]

To Alan Strangis:

Hmm... Let's see how that .500 actually lines up:

A) The mouse is a useless device
B) The iBook is "girly" (seriously... take shots at Apple all you like, but that's just cheap masculinity)
C) "Suggests" Apple should leave Mac OS
D) Would switch to Intel
E) Video iPod

I'm not even going to demean your intelligence by saying how stupid A and B are.

As for C, Steve Jobs'll switch to Windows the day Bill Gates goes down on him.

He got D, I'll give him that.

Even I (with a LOT of emphasis) predicted E. I don't think anybody with an idea about the iPod thought differently.

So not only is it not .500, his answers make about as much sense as a donkey playing a ukulele to serenade Catherine Zeta Jones.

Add to that the fact that he openly admits he flames Apple for attention, and you can see why I suddenly believe you're either related to him or Dvorak himself under a pseudonym.

:-)

[Jeff Myers @ Mar 29th 2007 9:46AM]

Anyone who pays five to six hundred bucks for that phone is an idiot with too much money. That doesn't mean there won't be plenty of them out there waiting to throw their money away.

Jeff Myers

[Eric @ Mar 29th 2007 9:49AM]

I guess Dvorak is long PC-maker stock, bigtime! Mistake... Big mistake!

[Mr. Crimson @ Mar 29th 2007 9:49AM]

To me, the iPhone is terribly overrated and incredibly overpriced as a locked down phone. It certainly is a beautiful product but without GPS, high speed data, (HSDPA or 3G), I just don't see how they can lock you to a provider AND charge such a high price. It's downright loony. This coupled with a proprietery OS, it just seems lackluster after the initial glaze of oooh's and ahh's from the first photos of this gorgeous device.

The saving grace? People who already use iTunes to support their music collection already don't care if they are locked into a contract/provider, presumably, so it should sell reasonably well with people in the video iPod crowd. But what percentage of iPod owners is that?

Of course, again, it is a remarkably beautiful device, but really? $600 for an 8GB video iPod? To me, 8GB's for that price, without the option of a storage slot to beef it up, it just doesn't quite do it. I will be quite suprised, (pleasantly), if it takes off beyond the early adopter crowd. What price would be reasonable? It really appears to be about $200 overpriced, precisely due to the fact that it is a locked phone. I'd really consider one for $400, but given what is already available for $600 in an unlocked phone, the iPhone doesn't come close to competing, at least to me.

I'm probably wrong, at least I hope I am, but certainly, we'll all know more by June. ;)

[mel @ Mar 29th 2007 1:22PM]

the saving grace? i don't have to carry some motorola LAME or moto POOP or moto CRAP phone AND my ipod at the same time. i could care less about downloading at fibros speeds to my PHONE. get me my email, let me look up directions. sure gps would be nice, so would full hd video recording and waterproof to 100 meters. [i'm always swimming down to 100 meters to film for Jacques Cousteau.. . well at least as often as i'm downloading 100 megabyte files to my phone]

[mel @ Mar 29th 2007 1:21PM]

yeah, and there's no room for another auto manufacturer in the cutthroat automotive industry. saturn, scion, kia, and mini will all fall to the powers of the big names like oldsmobile and yugo.

[The Big Fudge @ Mar 29th 2007 10:09AM]

Saturn is a GM brand, Scion is a Toyota brand, Kia is synonymous with Hyundai (the largest Korean car maker), and Mini is a BMW brand. So you have no point.

[Ken S @ Mar 29th 2007 1:08PM]

"Of course, we've already witnessed a newcomer step into the mobile handset business ... and emerge as the boutique, go-to provider for high-end handsets -- heard of HTC?"

Newcomer?

-----

August 1, 2005
"Founded in 1997, HTC has 3,400 employees...

"When Microsoft began working on a portable operating system to compete with Palm in 1999, HTC was chosen as one of five launch partners for the Pocket PC platform. 'We had one goal,' says Microsoft mobile media group project manager Jason Gordon, 'and that was to make a better PDA than Palm. HTC was a natural fit, since it already had a deep understanding of the Windows operating system.'

"Today, HTC is the world's largest producer of Windows-based wireless PDAs and smartphones. But perhaps the greatest testimony to HTC's prowess is that it was also tapped to help design and manufacture the Treo 650, the popular smartphone that runs on the competing Palm operating system."


http://money.cnn.com/magazines/business2/business2_archive/2005/08/01/8269664/index.htm

[Mchacur @ Mar 29th 2007 10:11AM]

2%-3% of the worldwide cell market.

That's all what Apple wants. And they want the premium 2%-3%. That's more than enough for Apple to make billions of additional revenue.

Apple will never compete in the rest 90%-95% of the market, mainly low-margin mobile phones.

That's the point Dvorak is missing.

[amby @ Mar 29th 2007 5:54PM]

@mchacur - so what, if they want it? It's not a new market. There is no new significant entry in the last 3-5 years into this market. The only change is the uprising of Asian vendors - but they were more advanced always, now just expanding the same to worldwide. BTW, 10 million is 1%.

[Andy @ Mar 29th 2007 10:10AM]

I was getting worried - no Apple product can possibly succeed if Dvorak hasn't claimed it will perform terribly. Now we can all rest safe in the knowledge that the iPhone will be a roaring success.

I kind of like Dvorak in a way - a bit like a foul mouthed elderly old grandparent that you wheel out for Christmas. You know they don't really mean what they say, because they are so out of touch, and you kind of like the way that they are so politically incorrect. Dvorak is the same.

[August @ Mar 29th 2007 11:03AM]

Oh, hipsters.

Gotta love 'em.

[everrette powell @ Mar 29th 2007 1:28PM]

Actually he does have a point, each of those brands are branching away from the maker just like what Acura and Lexus did, when someone ask what type of car do you drive you don’t say Toyota Lexus or Honda Acura you say Lexus IS or Acura RSX

[Jeroen @ Mar 29th 2007 10:18AM]

"there is no likelihood that Apple can be successful in a [cellphone] business this competitive."

What is "being succesful". Would that mean being a leading company in the industry of cellphones or would that mean covering the cost of production and make a nice profit?

Apple's strategy with the iPhone is a small market share, high price, nice profit and another thing in the product line. So as in being succesful in taking large market share.. No that won't be the case, they're not a core cellphone manufacturer. But as in being succesful with another product and making Apple profitable... Sure, apple stuff just sells.

"Anyone who pays five to six hundred bucks for that phone is an idiot with too much money"

Do you even know what HTC phones cost?? or any other highly featured smartphone...

[Ike Turner @ Mar 29th 2007 10:56AM]

Yeah an HTC trinity (HSDPA,3G,EDG,GPS,touchscreen,2Mg camera,microSD etc.....) cost less than a iPhone, has more features and is availble now (in Europe!).
http://www.espacesfr.com/v5/webapp/wcs/stores/servlet/ProductDisplay?catalogId=10001&storeId=10001&productId=57754&langId=-2&categoryId=10629

[bolerobell @ Mar 29th 2007 12:39PM]

You people dismissing Dvorak absolutely don't know how to read his columns. It's not his conclusion that is important (he totally pulls those out of his ass just to rile up the fanboys), it is his supporting premises that you want to read. And there, he makes good points: Apple will have a tough time breaking into the already saturated cellphone market. Apple did win big with iPod because that market was completely unfocused. Cell phone margins are completely thin. Apple probably will need a few design variations on hand to start to sell within a few months.

I don't agree with Dvorak's conclusions, but the facts he presents are true and are important, and I think that when he writes articles like this, it is more about bringing focus on those facts to the market than trying to push an idea like abandoning a product line that Apple has spent at least two years developing. I don't think that Apple will fail with the iPhone. Neither do I think (contrary to some Apple fanboys) that it will completely change the cellphone marketplace. I think it will have a lot of impact on the design of high end phones, and I think it will have an overall impact on cellphone UI design (which is the single reason I've been longing for Apple to enter the market, myself).

So in short: Read Dvorak for his supporting facts, not his conclusions, and don't expect the Entire World to change when the iPhones hit the market.

[Zadillo @ Mar 29th 2007 10:33AM]

Just saw this while doing a google search: http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,262102,00.html - this adds some additional perspective to his iPhone piece. Dvorak generally seems to have a major problem with cellphones, flashy gadgets, in general.

[Mystic @ Mar 29th 2007 10:56AM]

Do you know how much I hate business people? I don't think you do. All of you who wear suits and need to have your phone on you hip to let people know how importnant you think you are.

I LOVE how all of these analysts and anti-apple idiots always compare Apple products to others. Ipods don't have enough 'features', the iPhone doesn't have VPN, excel, and all kinds of other 'features'. It's a phone, NOT a smartphone. Get over it. It does everything my current phone does (Samsung A900) but better.

Apple does not make products for 'businessmen'! If you want all of these 'features', then stick with your PPC, Palm, or whatever else satisfies you. Go waste your time bitching about something else. I on the other hand will more than likely be enjoying the iPhone.

[August @ Mar 29th 2007 11:06AM]

Man, the hipsters really come out of the woodwork when their precious iphone comes under the chopping block!