Toyota looking to go hybrid-only by 2020?

Be warned, you should certainly take this one with a helping or two of salt, but according to a report over at Motor Authority, Toyota's Masatami Takimoto has at least insinuated that by 2020, hybrid vehicles would account for "100-percent" of the automaker's fleet. Of course, the context of the conversation was surrounding the firm's recent report that it expected to "make as much money on hybrids as it does on conventional gasoline-powered cars by 2010," so all sorts of boasting was likely to be aimlessly floating out of higher-ups' mouths. While making such a bold claim can't be seen as entirely unrealistic, we have to wonder if purely electric whips won't have at least some presence in the mainstream automotive market (and Toyota's lineup) within the next 13 years.

[Via Edmunds]

[Dan @ May 11th 2007 8:44PM]

No way. Hybrids are a stop gap (a poor one at that) until a better solution arrives. Hybrid power is only beneficial in city driving situations, on the highway its virtually useless and you are carrying around a huge battery which can last a certain amount of cycles before it is useless too.

Toyota has made the hybrid fad so big that even they are buying into it.

[Nogami @ May 11th 2007 8:51PM]

It's nice for you to believe that, but even at today's gas prices, it's costing me about $25 (Cdn) to fill my tank and last me for about 2 weeks of regular commuting. These "shocking" gas prices that everyone are upset about don't bother me in the least.

The battery lasts the life of the car, BTW.

[Stokes @ May 11th 2007 8:52PM]

I have a Toyota Prius and i love it!! I just want to put my hands on the Lexus RX400h... must be awesome!! People should try hybrids... i'm sure many would like it a lot!!...

[rob @ May 11th 2007 8:56PM]

really dan? is that why i get 50mpg average over the last 30,000 miles of highway commuting in my prius?

after moving the car, the #1 task of the prius control software is to maximize the useful life of the battery. there are many older priuses with 100K+ miles and no problems at all with the battery pack.

[Dan @ May 11th 2007 10:10PM]

The reason your Prius gets 50mpg on the highway isn't because of its battery but its tiny engine. My 1.5L Civic from 1995 gets 41 mpg on my highway/street cycle.

You say the battery lasts the life of the car, but I have cars over 15 years old in my family. Are you honestly telling me a battery has that kind of lifespan?

[rob @ May 12th 2007 2:48AM]

dan -


i dont get 41MPG, i get 50. if i did only city driving, i'm confident i could get 65-70MPG. this is a full-sized sedan with lots of amenities (6 cd changer, 7 speaker stereo, bluetooth hands free, reverse gear video camera, homelink, dimming mirrors, etc.) - its simply in a different class than any civic, even honda's hybrid civics.

the prius has what's known as a 'modified atkinson cycle' engine (as opposed to the plain otto cycle engine). this type of engine is more efficient, but can not produce as much torque as an otto cycle engine. also the prius engine has some other tricks up its sleeve, like the pistons being slightly offset from the crankshaft to minimize friction on the power stroke.

the larger electric motor (which is actually the final drive), drawing power from the battery, is used to provide the low-end torque that the gasoline motor can not provide. furthermore almost all braking is done first by regeneration; when the battery is full engine braking (compression braking) is added, and when that's not enough the friction brakes are used. so energy that would have been wasted in your civic is recovered, resulting in more MPGs.

so yes, it is because of the battery that it can achieve great mileage. every other car has an engine sized for acceleration from a standstill, but the prius can get away with having an engine that's sized perfectly for cruise, and rely on the battery/electric motors for starting torque.

as i briefly mentioned above, the main goal of the control loop is to keep the battery between 40 and 80% of maximum charge, and nominally at 60%. this is the secret to long battery life. the hybrid drive system is warranted for 10 years/100,000 miles. do you think toyota would do this if they felt it would be a huge liability for them? the battery is under the constant care of the computer which is managing its charge. its not the same as the lead-acid starting battery in your car that's just tied to the alternator with some diodes.

the prius actually has two electric motors, which are coupled to the wheels together with the gasoline engine by a planetary gear set which functions as an electronically controlled continuously variable transmission. as i mentioned before the final drive is electric, so this allows the gasoline engine to run at RPM settings that yield peak efficiency during highway cruise.

i'm telling you, this sh** is the real deal. its the most incredible car i've ever owned... and i've owned some nice ones, including a V70R and an MBZ C43 that just sits in the garage now.

this is a great page with lots of interesting info:

http://privatenrg.com/#Hybrid_Synergy_Drive

[Bryan @ May 12th 2007 12:50PM]

I had a 1989 Ford Festiva that got 47mpg no matter how I drove it and the thing never gave me problems. I think it was built by Mitsubishi. My point is, high mpg cars existed long ago but weren't popular. Remember the Geo Metro? They sold for under 10K.

[rob @ May 12th 2007 7:12PM]

yes, and my point is that the prius is not a metro or a festiva. those are ultracompact, low-end cars, to put it gently. poor build quality, no amenities, no safety. great car for a college student, but not for me at my age.

also the festiva NOx/CO/CO2/particulate emissions are nowhere even in the ballpark of the prius.

[Stokes @ May 11th 2007 9:06PM]

I think that some people just like to criticise hybrids, and especially prius, but they actually never even gave it a try!!! And they don’t know what they are talking about! It's the most amazing car i have ever driven!! And the level of technology is stunning!! Very good performance with great gas consumption!

[Scott @ May 11th 2007 9:13PM]

And let us not forget.... A$$ ugly.

[Jeremy K. @ May 11th 2007 9:17PM]

I sure hope that by 2020 we will have a permanent alternative to gasoline powered vehicles.

[Galley @ May 12th 2007 9:40AM]

Yeah, there's no way in hell we'll still be that dependent on fossil-duel technology by 2020.

[JohnTitor @ May 11th 2007 9:17PM]

well now that Toyota is ahead of the Detriot Companies in Worldwide sales, they do have some power to change the industry

[phoomp @ May 11th 2007 9:27PM]

2020 is a very long way away. I fully expect my hover car to be running on something other than fossil fuels in 13 years.

[David @ May 11th 2007 9:50PM]

by 2020 Hybrids shouldn't even be used, cars should be running fully on electricity or hydrogen by then.

and currently, I'd say Hybrids aren't worth buying over fully gasoline powered cars given the price premium and selection of vehicles. might change in a few years, but I'd much rather see electric or hydrogen vehicles by then.

[Castle @ May 11th 2007 9:52PM]

Engine technologies as fuel injections and more recently direct-injection gasoline engines are now common as day. Its not hard to imagine current engine technology that is considered expensive will be common place in a decade.

[bob @ May 11th 2007 10:02PM]

It makes sense to add hybrid technology to all vehicles. It is a good choice now, aside from initial cost, and will still be a valid technology even when cars use fuel cells or other fuel source. It just makes sense to capture energy that would otherwise be lost in stopping and reuse it. At present one of the best ways to store this energy is using batteries. Maybe in a future fuel cell car that wasted energy can turned back into hydrogen and stored in the tank.

[Castle @ May 11th 2007 10:30PM]

>>You say the battery lasts the life of the car, but I have cars over 15 years old in my family. Are you honestly telling me a battery has that kind of lifespan?

There has already been taxi drivers that drive Prius' that have more then 200,000+ miles on their car with the original battery as is still good as new. Also, Ni-Cad batteries that the Prius uses are 100% recycled (you actually pay for it and is included in the price of the car), and the battery for all cars is one of the most highly recycled components in any industry(where 98% of car batteries are recycled).


Also, to note. Hybrid technology now is obviously not going to be the same as hybrid technology in over then years.

[Castle @ May 11th 2007 10:34PM]

This has news likely ties in with another Toyota quote stating that hybrids cost premium for other cars would disappear.

Toyota says hybrid cost premium to disappear:
http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSTKX00276320070510

[paul34 @ May 11th 2007 10:50PM]

Man... how many more times do I need to say it.

We don't NEED hybrids. What we NEED are diesels. They are NOT expensive, at least nowhere as expensive as a hybrid is. They do not require a massive amount of engineering. They can be repaired by your local mechanic. They are very efficient.

You know what'd be even more efficient? A hybrid diesel. Maybe if Toyota committed to that... then we'd be going somewhere. And not just any hybrid, a series hybrid - it'd be cheaper to produce as well.

However, given America's style (highway travel), I'm not sure if it'd work for everyone. But definitely for a lot of people who do stop-and-go commuting.

[Chuckles McGee @ May 12th 2007 2:33PM]

Very true. People moan and complain at prices dollars per gallon cheaper than what the rest of the world pays. Much as hybrid vehicles increase efficiency, you'd have to drive any hybrid A LOT until you made up for the premium you pay versus an efficient, non-hybrid car.

[crescentdavid @ May 11th 2007 11:01PM]

If you'd do a little research, say read the cited article and its links, you would have read that by 2010, Toyota expects to be producing diesel/hybrid cars and there are already trucks with the diesel hybrid system. Other manufacturers, including Citroen, Ford, Opel and Volkswagen are currently working on developing their own diesel powered hybrid vehicles
http://www.motorauthority.com/cars/toyota/toyota-to-develop-diesel-hybrid-by-2010/

A mind is a terrible thing to waste.

[crescentdavid @ May 11th 2007 11:03PM]

If you'd do a little research, say read the cited article and its links, you would have read that by 2010, Toyota expects to be producing diesel/hybrid cars and there are already trucks with the diesel hybrid system. Other manufacturers, including Citroen, Ford, Opel and Volkswagen are currently working on developing their own diesel powered hybrid vehicles
http://www.motorauthority.com/cars/toyota/toyota-to-develop-diesel-hybrid-by-2010/

A mind is a terrible thing to waste.

[Joseph M. @ May 11th 2007 11:54PM]

I absolutely love my 2004 Toyota Prius Hybrid. This is the most amazing car I've ever driven, ever owned. I never average less than 50 Miles Per gallon. This Car has a 1.5 litter Dual(twin) Cam engine, and two High Efficiency (97% efficient) Electric Motors. The Technology in this car is out of this world. I can't believe I own one. Thank you Toyota for making this car that we can buy today. GM, Ford and Chrysler are still "talking" about the cars they will make "some day" for drivers to buy. thats just embarrassing. Toyota Made the Prius in 1997, Ten years latter, Toyota has had the time to "Perfect" This Technological Marvel. And what is the rest of the Automotive industry doing? I don't even care anymore. I love my car. Thank you Toyota! You really are the Best!

[Cameron @ May 12th 2007 1:51AM]

How about you all read this article on the "wonderful" hybrids that really do more damage to the environment than good. http://clubs.ccsu.edu/recorder/editorial/editorial_item.asp?NewsID=188

[Josh McGrath @ May 12th 2007 4:40PM]

i get so damn frustrated when people talk about hybrids as good for the environment, they are ruining it.

[rob @ May 12th 2007 2:54AM]

cameron - that article is a crock and has been widely debunked. its FUD from GM.

[trainwrecka @ May 12th 2007 9:26AM]

a hybrid TUNDRA? i'd like to see that.

[dave @ May 12th 2007 10:38AM]

sweet

[Mike @ May 12th 2007 11:08AM]

I love my Prius. Not even considering the gas mileage, it's a very pleasant car to drive. I love the almost total silence, rather than hearing engine noise and the smooth acceleration rather than jolts when the transmission shifts. I also love the pushbutton start & smart key system, so I just have to touch the door to unlock it and press a button to start, without removing the key from my pocket. I'm driving a non-hybrid rental car this week, thanks to a neighbor hitting my Prius, and I find it really annoying. Using a key to start it feels so primitive.

[Andy @ May 12th 2007 2:43PM]

Yeh, 2012 is a long way a way. I think they would have it done by then.

[mr friggles @ May 12th 2007 5:31PM]

Yeah. Let them wait till 2020. By 2012 gas prices will be so high practically all gas-only car sales will crash, probably taking GM down with them. They'll be 8 years late...at a MINIMUM. And I'm being extremely pessimistic. This could happen by 2009 when Bush uses another staged terror attack to stay in office.

[SteveMB @ May 13th 2007 9:51PM]

Alternative fuels are overrated. If we have engines that run on water, then water will be $3 a gallon. If we use ethanol, we'll run out of corn pretty quick and it will raise in price.

[Jarrett Kaufman @ May 14th 2007 4:47PM]

I don't find it at all absurd that they expect to switch entirely to hybrids. Hybrid does not always mean the sort of hybrid we're most used to seeing today. Hybrid could easily refer to a very small electric engine and battery setup that makes only some minor improvements to the performance. There are vehicles on the road today that are technically hybrids that aren't anywhere close to what we usually refer to as a hybrid. Seems logical, then, to build some element of hybrid technology into every vehicle eventually, no matter what other improvements you make.