Ins and Outs: Is buyshifting the future of television? (part 2)
by Jeremy Toeman 
posted May 25th 2007 at 2:47PM
Jeremy Toeman contributes Ins and Outs, an opinion column on entertainment technology:
Last time on Ins and Outs we introduced the concept of buyshifting -- what it means, what it is, and where it's going. But now it's time to get down to the brass tacks. That's right, we're talking about whether it's viable for the average consumer -- more specifically, where it falls on the cost scale. The results might actually surprise you. So let's dig in, shall we?
For the "standard" HD+DVR package -- your kind of baseline TV-consuming experience -- the monthly bill for San Francisco's Comcast digital cable service is $78. If the average household watches 8 hours of programming per day (yes, it's true), that comes out to about $0.32 per hour. Comcast also charges $0.99 per episode through its VOD service. iTunes, of course, charges $1.99 per episode, or $34.99 per season ($1.59 per episode at an assumed 22 episodes per season). Buying the DVDs on Amazon ranges from about $25-$40 per season ($1.14 to $1.81 per episode).
Since your cable bill is fixed (well, not really, as the cable industry has managed to increase billing at a rate that exceeds inflation for the past 10 consecutive years – big surprise), it comes out to $936 annually. (Side note: for simplicity's sake we'll assume that your average satellite bill is comparable to cable.) So let's see the results on a per-year, per-month, and per-episode basis, assuming one season per year, 22 episodes per season per show.
Legend
VOD price assumes $0.99 per episode, Comcast SF rates. Your price may vary!
Green: Least expensive option per show (as in program, not as in episode)
Yellow: Second least expensive option per show
Red: Most expensive option per show
Number of shows watched: 7, 10, 15, and 23 figures based on wholly unscientific analysis of popular programming. 7 shows represents household that watches only specific TV shows; 10 and 15 are households that watch a lot of hit shows, 23 are couch potato homes.
As is pretty clear, from a pure cost perspective, buyshifting is far and away the clear winner for the consumer. A cheap VOD service like Comcast's is handily the least expensive -- unfortunately, the above figures assumes VOD as your base cost, and do not factor in the cable service it's delivered on. (The "real" cost of VOD would be the most expensive by a large margin.) Still, second place (cheap DVDs) and even third place (buying seasons on iTunes) for cost-efficiency are very straightforward methods of buyshifting.
There are some other intangibles that haven't being addressed yet. For example, when buyshifting you have no access to live sports or news, nor specials (unless they too are released on DVD). Further, there's no opportunity for "surprise" with buyshifting, you watch everything deliberately. This is probably not the right thing for the typical "couch potato", but if you have an active lifestyle or just want to watch specific shows at your convenience, buyshifting is definitely the best bang for your buck.
Diving in further, it's interesting to consider the role technology is playing in enabling the buyshifted lifestyle. Prior to the October 2005 launch of the video iPod, the only cable-free means for buyshifting was via DVD, which implied renting or purchasing only. And as we all know, DVD release cycles are typically months after a season ends (gotta show the reruns first!), as there are a lot of laborious steps in getting the show from the original masters onto DVD, inside packaging, and then into the store (and of course, to your house). This is where IP-based delivery mechanisms have the real opportunity to shine.
Some networks, such as NBC and CBS, already air the shows on the internet a day after broadcast. Comcast's on-demand service has shows available for purchase almost immediately after airing. In some cases you can even buy an entire season of a TV show on iTunes before some of the episodes air on broadcast. Let's see you try that one, DVD!
The other piece of the puzzle for digital delivery is the platform. Prior to two years ago, save for a smattering of unsuccessful boxes with very little content, the computer was the only place one could watch any downloaded content (unless you wanted to burn a DVD). Now, in addition to the iPod, one can use their Xbox 360 game console, or a dedicated device such as the Apple TV or Netgear Digital Entertainer HD. (And let's not forget the still-present smattering of minor boxes with not a lot of content.) DirecTV further extends buyshifting capabilities through blending multiple technologies with their HR20 receiver, which is capable of live TV, DVR, on-demand, and streaming content from a Viiv-enabled PC.
At present, it's safe to say the two biggest hardware platforms for buyshifting digital downloads are the Xbox Live Marketplace and Apple TV, which offer two different philosophies for delivering video. On the Xbox 360, you can browse through content from numerous providers, ranging from NBC to Warner Brothers Studios; from the TV interface you can easily select content, pay for it (using Microsoft Points, although some is free) and begin watching it minutes later. The Apple TV, on the other hand, is still dependent on your computer and iTunes (by design, Apple claims). You select the content you want at the computer, but once it's downloaded you can sync or stream and watch it at the TV set. This is one rare moment where I feel Microsoft has outshined Apple when it comes to the user experience, but it's important to note that this is just the tip of the iceberg for both companies' visions and services.
My prediction is that with the combination of more options for less money, consumers will make buyshifting a vital component of TV watching in the future. I don't think it's as easy to predict which single platform (if any) on which this will occur; some will clearly flock to the minimal impact of doing it all via a set-top box, whereas others don't mind the additional boxes like a digital media receiver or a game console. It also seems straightforward to predict that many will still pay some form of a monthly fee, possibly for a select number of channels (a model already in place in Canada) to consume news, sports, special events, and old episodes of Cheers at 3 in the morning.
When I look at the amazing technology push toward the vision of consuming any content, anytime, anywhere, it seems to make the case that the future for buyshifting is looking pretty good. The technology trends only point toward more bandwidth (both cheaper and faster), with more mechanisms of delivery (cellphone, portable media device, laptop, IP-enabled set-top boxes, consoles, etc.). Will the networks even be networks as we know them in ten years? Who knows. But what's occurring right now in television is a fundamental change in paths to the consumer, and therefore empowerment by choice for an ever-increasing audience.
Jeremy Toeman is an expert in digital media and consumer technology. Over the past ten years he has designed, built, and marketed numerous award-winning products in the "convergence" space. Jeremy is currently a consultant advising companies on product marketing strategy.
For the "standard" HD+DVR package -- your kind of baseline TV-consuming experience -- the monthly bill for San Francisco's Comcast digital cable service is $78. If the average household watches 8 hours of programming per day (yes, it's true), that comes out to about $0.32 per hour. Comcast also charges $0.99 per episode through its VOD service. iTunes, of course, charges $1.99 per episode, or $34.99 per season ($1.59 per episode at an assumed 22 episodes per season). Buying the DVDs on Amazon ranges from about $25-$40 per season ($1.14 to $1.81 per episode).
Since your cable bill is fixed (well, not really, as the cable industry has managed to increase billing at a rate that exceeds inflation for the past 10 consecutive years – big surprise), it comes out to $936 annually. (Side note: for simplicity's sake we'll assume that your average satellite bill is comparable to cable.) So let's see the results on a per-year, per-month, and per-episode basis, assuming one season per year, 22 episodes per season per show.
Legend
VOD price assumes $0.99 per episode, Comcast SF rates. Your price may vary!
Green: Least expensive option per show (as in program, not as in episode)
Yellow: Second least expensive option per show
Red: Most expensive option per show
Number of shows watched: 7, 10, 15, and 23 figures based on wholly unscientific analysis of popular programming. 7 shows represents household that watches only specific TV shows; 10 and 15 are households that watch a lot of hit shows, 23 are couch potato homes.
| Annual price | Number of shows watched | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery method | 7 | 10 | 15 | 23 |
| Cable | $936 | $936 | $936 | $936 |
| VOD | $152 | $218 | $327 | $501 |
| iTunes - buying episodes | $306 | $438 | $657 | $1,007 |
| iTunes - buying seasons | $245 | $350 | $525 | $805 |
| DVDs - cheap ($25/season) | $175 | $250 | $375 | $575 |
| DVDs - expensive ($40/season) | $280 | $400 | $600 | $920 |
| Monthly price | Number of shows watched | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery method | 7 | 10 | 15 | 23 |
| Cable | $78 | $78 | $78 | $78 |
| VOD | $13 | $18 | $27 | $42 |
| iTunes - buying episodes | $26 | $36 | $55 | $84 |
| iTunes - buying seasons | $20 | $29 | $44 | $67 |
| DVDs - cheap ($25/season) | $15 | $21 | $31 | $48 |
| DVDs - expensive ($40/season) | $23 | $33 | $50 | $77 |
| Per episode price | Number of shows watched | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery method | 7 | 10 | 15 | 23 |
| Cable | $6.08 | $4.25 | $2.84 | $1.85 |
| VOD | $0.99 | $0.99 | $0.99 | $0.99 |
| iTunes - buying episodes | $1.99 | $1.99 | $1.99 | $1.99 |
| iTunes - buying seasons | $1.59 | $1.59 | $1.59 | $1.59 |
| DVDs - cheap ($25/season) | $1.14 | $1.14 | $1.14 | $1.14 |
| DVDs - expensive ($40/season) | $1.82 | $1.82 | $1.82 | $1.82 |
As is pretty clear, from a pure cost perspective, buyshifting is far and away the clear winner for the consumer. A cheap VOD service like Comcast's is handily the least expensive -- unfortunately, the above figures assumes VOD as your base cost, and do not factor in the cable service it's delivered on. (The "real" cost of VOD would be the most expensive by a large margin.) Still, second place (cheap DVDs) and even third place (buying seasons on iTunes) for cost-efficiency are very straightforward methods of buyshifting.
There are some other intangibles that haven't being addressed yet. For example, when buyshifting you have no access to live sports or news, nor specials (unless they too are released on DVD). Further, there's no opportunity for "surprise" with buyshifting, you watch everything deliberately. This is probably not the right thing for the typical "couch potato", but if you have an active lifestyle or just want to watch specific shows at your convenience, buyshifting is definitely the best bang for your buck.
Diving in further, it's interesting to consider the role technology is playing in enabling the buyshifted lifestyle. Prior to the October 2005 launch of the video iPod, the only cable-free means for buyshifting was via DVD, which implied renting or purchasing only. And as we all know, DVD release cycles are typically months after a season ends (gotta show the reruns first!), as there are a lot of laborious steps in getting the show from the original masters onto DVD, inside packaging, and then into the store (and of course, to your house). This is where IP-based delivery mechanisms have the real opportunity to shine.
Some networks, such as NBC and CBS, already air the shows on the internet a day after broadcast. Comcast's on-demand service has shows available for purchase almost immediately after airing. In some cases you can even buy an entire season of a TV show on iTunes before some of the episodes air on broadcast. Let's see you try that one, DVD!
The other piece of the puzzle for digital delivery is the platform. Prior to two years ago, save for a smattering of unsuccessful boxes with very little content, the computer was the only place one could watch any downloaded content (unless you wanted to burn a DVD). Now, in addition to the iPod, one can use their Xbox 360 game console, or a dedicated device such as the Apple TV or Netgear Digital Entertainer HD. (And let's not forget the still-present smattering of minor boxes with not a lot of content.) DirecTV further extends buyshifting capabilities through blending multiple technologies with their HR20 receiver, which is capable of live TV, DVR, on-demand, and streaming content from a Viiv-enabled PC.
At present, it's safe to say the two biggest hardware platforms for buyshifting digital downloads are the Xbox Live Marketplace and Apple TV, which offer two different philosophies for delivering video. On the Xbox 360, you can browse through content from numerous providers, ranging from NBC to Warner Brothers Studios; from the TV interface you can easily select content, pay for it (using Microsoft Points, although some is free) and begin watching it minutes later. The Apple TV, on the other hand, is still dependent on your computer and iTunes (by design, Apple claims). You select the content you want at the computer, but once it's downloaded you can sync or stream and watch it at the TV set. This is one rare moment where I feel Microsoft has outshined Apple when it comes to the user experience, but it's important to note that this is just the tip of the iceberg for both companies' visions and services.
My prediction is that with the combination of more options for less money, consumers will make buyshifting a vital component of TV watching in the future. I don't think it's as easy to predict which single platform (if any) on which this will occur; some will clearly flock to the minimal impact of doing it all via a set-top box, whereas others don't mind the additional boxes like a digital media receiver or a game console. It also seems straightforward to predict that many will still pay some form of a monthly fee, possibly for a select number of channels (a model already in place in Canada) to consume news, sports, special events, and old episodes of Cheers at 3 in the morning.
When I look at the amazing technology push toward the vision of consuming any content, anytime, anywhere, it seems to make the case that the future for buyshifting is looking pretty good. The technology trends only point toward more bandwidth (both cheaper and faster), with more mechanisms of delivery (cellphone, portable media device, laptop, IP-enabled set-top boxes, consoles, etc.). Will the networks even be networks as we know them in ten years? Who knows. But what's occurring right now in television is a fundamental change in paths to the consumer, and therefore empowerment by choice for an ever-increasing audience.
Jeremy Toeman is an expert in digital media and consumer technology. Over the past ten years he has designed, built, and marketed numerous award-winning products in the "convergence" space. Jeremy is currently a consultant advising companies on product marketing strategy.
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
Erwos @ May 25th 2007 4:50PM
My friends always thought I was nuts for buying seasons of TV on DVD - but considering I pay about $700 less than them, it looks like I'm coming out on top. :)
Of course, the problem is that nasty "download your TV shows off the Internet for free" competitor.
Roger Rees @ May 25th 2007 3:02PM
One problem I see is that the VOD pricing is dependant on having Comcast...can you order VOD shows without already paying some monthly fee? I know with XBL you can buy content without paying any fee, but I think the shows on live are $2 each.
Scott @ Jun 16th 2007 11:05AM
People with subscriptions to cable may also benefit from the use of a DVR. This allows the benefit of watching what you want, when you want it without the hassle of the purchase. This does not exactly make cable cheap however.
Ben @ May 25th 2007 3:09PM
Nice writeup, but not one mention of HD????
Cellullose @ May 25th 2007 3:15PM
Of course, the other horrible reality of Cable and Satellite TV is the cost is subsidized by advertisers... I'd hate to imagine the cost of cable if it were all commercial free, like the VOD, iTunes and Live.
B. Factor @ May 25th 2007 3:17PM
Nice analysis! I did a similar analysis but also including Blockbuster TOTAL ACCESS at $19/month. With TOTAL ACCESS you can get 6 DVDs a week (3 in the mail, 3 from the store). We had so many DVDs piling up that we cancelled our cable service.
Stephan @ May 25th 2007 3:25PM
This is great. My wife and I were just discussing do we really need our satellite service. We only really watch 4 shows, well we watch others but we can do without them, and as for sports well that is why you have friends! Most of the shows we do watch are on the regular channels and I set up an Antenna and that is WAY better than the Satellite HD feeds.
Anyhow our major problem is that the shows on satellite are not necessarily available on iTunes or other "legal" sites. We could just rent the season worth of DVD's but as you mentioned the waiting is a bitch.
Mike @ May 25th 2007 3:45PM
Jeremy - there's a term for what you are trying to brand (and take from Sling and TiVo) with your "x-shifting" term - it's a la carte. You mention yourself in your part one that people are buying "a la carte" video, and its not going away, and then you proceed to brush aside the much better known term for what you are describing and try to coin a phrase (and earn yourself some marketing material/catchphrase credibility for your consulting biz) with buyshifting.
Just call it a la carte. Everyone else does.
cmacnaug @ May 25th 2007 4:11PM
Also there is no mention of Windows Media Center which now comes with most versions of Vista. Media Center's Online Spotlight offers VOD services (Vongo, MovieLink, CinemaNow) plus easy addons for Blockbuster and Netflix. So providing you have a broadband internet connection you can access VOD easily.
martin @ May 25th 2007 3:35PM
@ B. Factor,
you're absolutely right about blocbuster total access, its sometimes even faster for me to drive down the street exchange my mailers for instore rentals then it is to either wait for a download.
blockbuster is also giving out free 2 week trials if you put in this promo code:
06694b
gives you the 3 movies out at a time plan free for 2 week. great promo code!
Ondra Soukup @ May 25th 2007 3:44PM
I'm not from the US and I'm torrenting all the shows. For Free. Now beat this price!
consumer_q @ May 25th 2007 3:58PM
Public library card + dvd tv series checkout = free and legal timeshift
My municipal library system has all the latest-&-greatest tv series collections; multiple copies, even. Sometimes I have to wait a couple weeks, but there are other things to watch until then; I go online and reserve, then receive an email when it is ready for me to walk down and pick it up.
Living within a mile of a library branch helps too.
akijikan @ May 25th 2007 3:53PM
HD+DVR is baseline? Better tell america.
noob @ May 25th 2007 4:01PM
um i don't pay extra for VOD with comcast....
but then again I also have 10 boxes....6 of them HD-DVRs :D
Jean @ May 29th 2007 10:10AM
I work for Comcast, and I have 4 HD-DVR's, a SD-DVR, and cable ready outlets. I as an employee, generally think Comcast is reasonable (depending on what channels you need to see) compared to most providers. However, in your situation I believe that you my friend, should think about getting a $3k Media Center PC w/ Media Center Extenders, and use the hell out of Bit Torrent's. Because, at your level of service you must be paying about $250 a month (if including phone/HSI) However, do you know we will be selling you TiVo upgrades to your DVR's soon? Yes, the Glory of TiVo, the shitiness of Motorola.
David Hildreth @ May 25th 2007 5:39PM
Most of the shows that people want are available for free in HD.
Just get an antenna.
smfrazz @ May 25th 2007 5:26PM
I have to agree... why all the fuss...just get an antenna. Even if you want HD, it's free and available to the majority of Americans. Now if you want to add timeshifting... then buy a Media Center enabled PC and you have all you need, minus what you might want to supplement with a Efflux or Blockbuster account.
MauiDan @ May 25th 2007 4:27PM
Thank you for this comparison! I have often wondered if it would be cheaper to buy episodes from iTunes, but was too lazy to do the math :-).
Couple of problems:
- no HD on iTunes
- Cable has more content (The Simpsons, American Idol, etc)
- DVD's = waiting 6months after end of season to watch (ie. Lost)
- Bittorrenting all shows is a nice backup for when my TWC DVR chops the end of the American Idol finale off...someone needs a legal alternative to this.
Cyclotron @ May 27th 2007 5:36PM
I think Netflix and Blockbuster type services should be included in this price comparison. Even though its rental, its a subscription no different than iTunes.
Also, "buyshifting" needs to be added to wikipedia
mike d @ May 25th 2007 4:30PM
I agree ben, why even bother going through this whole excercise without considering HD? Seems pointless to me. Granted, I'm still in the minority of those who watch mostly HD programming, but that number is growing every day.
andy @ May 25th 2007 4:41PM
The cost of my Tivo S3 and antenna together were 1000+60= 1060.
That expense is over 1yr now and working on year two, so that is BY FAR the cheapest way, and I also have the BEST hd available, hands down.
I don't have cable, who needs that crap?
scopey42 @ May 25th 2007 4:45PM
I am an Xbox 360 and media center PC owner and I have to say I think this is the best setup to be load of all media :) I live in a 23'ft Travel Trailer (makes for very short cable runs) and in it we have 2 PC's in the kitchen/living area and a xbox 360 with a 27" HDTV in the bedroom. I have a single piece of ethernet cable between my media center and the 360 and 2 regular broadcast and 1 HDTV tuner in the media center. I have cable internet but I don't have cable or satellite tv because I have been more than impressed with the HDTV options around Milwaukee. RV's fortunately have fantastic power amped TV antennas that work great for HD so with just the over the air signal I can record for free what ever is aired. I also have a Netflix account which has worked great for me as well. I buy the occasional show that I missed from the Xbox Marketplace or I just run an HDMI cable from my computer to the TV and watch the shows that I miss over the internet. I have to say that as much as I really really want to hate microsoft I am finding it hard to as their media products are working so great for me and have been for well over a year. check out my rig at www.lukek.ca
andy @ May 25th 2007 4:43PM
oops that TIVO S3 for 1000 includs lifetime service, so no monthly ever.
This year I'm at 530/yr, and next year, it'll be 353/yr.
In 2 years, I'll be at 250/yr.
Andrew Jones @ May 25th 2007 4:49PM
"- Cable has more content (The Simpsons, American Idol, etc)" - MauiDan
Funny - both of those are on OTA channels, which are rebroadcast via cable. All of those can be recorded - in HD - for the cost of a decent PC (read:
Photo Tim @ May 25th 2007 4:50PM
Very interesting, however what I want is to buyshift (don't forget the f) from other providers. As an example EuroSports coverage of F1 and MotoGP is so vastly superior to Speed Channel that I would happily download that. I'm sure that extends to other Sports also. And if I could by some first run BBC shows to watch I'd do that also.
But, things are going to have to change drasticly. As an example I can't download a iTunes free Tues song from Germany or U.K. Because I don't live there. Why? If I like the artist why can't I buy it no matter where I live.
Peter Weldon @ May 25th 2007 5:18PM
Some time ago I added up all the dollars spent on TV, Radio, Magazine, and Newspaper advertising in the US and divided it by the US population. This number at the time came out to about $800 per person. Someone closer to the advertising business than I am may want to update this number.
I went through this exercise to determine what it SHOULD cost me to get all the media content I want without ANY advertising. Yes, I will pay $1,000 per year to get any content I want, when I want it, where I want it, on the device I want it on.
This is in addition to paying the UTILITY cost of delivering the content and the DEVICE cost to consume it.
Now there is a business model for the future. Any communications companies or media companies listening?
Justin @ May 25th 2007 5:09PM
I agree with a number of the above posters: your price comparison does not take into account that many (most?) of the shows people watch on a per-season basis are available to grab for free out of thin air via ATSC, NTSC, or QAM. Only problem there is you need to be there to watch them or a stand alone DVR.
Only problem with that option is no cable shows (iTunes can solve this for the most part - not so much DVD if you want to watch daily shows like the Daily Show, Colbert Report, etc...) and no cable sports. THAT is the biggest issue by far with dropping cable for buy-shifting for many consumers. If I could get ESPN, ESPN2, and TNT NBA, then I would have already cancelled my cable sub a long time ago. Get me my live sports w/o all of the other cable crap and I would be on the bandwagon immediately. Until, then, it just won't work for many sports fans.
David @ May 25th 2007 5:43PM
That was a cogent, interesting, and informative analysis. On a scale of, say, "1 To 10" which do you (Jeremy) think is the best option. Factoring in all the myriad details (variety of programming, ease of use, display options, etc.?
Thanks,
David
www.1to10reviews.com
Chris @ May 25th 2007 5:37PM
What about shows that you can't get on DVD, iTunes, etc? I know I'm not alone in thinking that $20 for a DVD with 3 episodes of Good Eats on it is a ripoff, especially when there is no way to get a full season. Not that I'm defending cable's pricing, but there's a lot to be said for the ability to channel surf and/or access those good shows that just don't have the viewership to encourage networks to produce cheap full-season dvd (or online) distribution.
Scooter @ May 25th 2007 6:04PM
Nice article, but how about a dose of honest reality?
Add a line to the table for torrents, and factor in the cost of broadband and storage (either HDD and/or DVD).
It might possibly show that in some cases buying is more sensible than pirating...
gusrod @ May 28th 2007 11:54AM
Apple is the solution
mcgillnicholas @ May 25th 2007 6:37PM
I agree with Scooter on this story.
IPTV, Cable, and others will not survive too much longer in the marketplace. They are forms of protected media delivery; where content providers are in control. The REAL growing trend is the transfer of media control from provider to consumer. Consumers created this market with piracy torrent downloads and copyright infringement. It is ridiculous to assume that people will fall into one of those boxes, providers can't keep up with the consumer trend.It is the uber media hosts like Google who will retain control and eventually charge for subscription. Their free-range content and audience model will far outlast itunes and the others because it is designed and controlled by consumers.
I think the attempt to create a phrase to describe how consumers are getting content as buyshifting is (A) A ridiculous confusing term for a simple trend and is (B) a personal branding move. Interesting story but leave the nomenclature to the professionals please!
Arrgh, Methinks the writer a land lover, and left out the masses of us who sail the seven torrent seas without a flag to our mast, nor itunes account. Arghh!
hackedbyjoe @ May 25th 2007 7:07PM
Fuck this! I'll just download all my TV shows. Yes, I know...I'm evil.
nike @ May 25th 2007 8:02PM
I think you have to do something to account for VOD needs to have at least basic cable to function.
Itunes, needs to have at least a computer, and a monthly subscription to the internet at high speed, DSL or Cable. If you have cable, then you need to factor some of the CABLE cost, AND the CABLE internet cost in to the itunes cost, if you have DSL then you could have JUST DSL.
As well, there needs to be SOME X factor for other programming. If you JUST had VOD, or ITunes, you could NEVER watch CNN, or the Today show, or something like that (okay, today is on the net, but not LIVE so what good would that be)
As the networks are hoping for these technologies, it is to be INCREMENTAL revenue, not necessarilly TAKE AWAY from CABLE or SAT revenue, but in the end, people watch more MOBILE content, or PLACE SHIFTED content (on the computer, on the road, NOT in the living room) than they used to just watch TV.
People said, TV Would kill radio, well that didn't happen either.
RJ @ May 25th 2007 8:49PM
First you have to accept the premise that web storefront properties (Amazon Unbox, iTunes, 360Marketplace) can successfully act as content aggregators across networks. That's a hard pill to swallow. The networks will fight it, and already do so by releasing streaming free versions of their content on their own sites.
If this was such an incredibly viable business model, where is the pay-cable channel content on these stores? HBO, Starz, etc? They are either in their own storefront, or not playing at all.
Frankly, nothing on the market beats the flexibility of VOD (cable or dish) + DVR. If a consumer wants to placeshift, they can plug that into the mix with everything from a settop box to a full HTPC/Orb combo.
Nothing in 360 Marketplace, Amazon Unbox, iTunes, or anything else comes close to the full flexibility offered by that combination. Oh yes, and its cheaper too.
In the near term, the most interesting thing I'm watching is the competition between iTunes and XBox360 Marketplace.
Will Marketplace get more content popular content before iTunes adds rental support and high quality video? Will Marketplace add "subscription" abilities to download entire seasons of content as they appear? Will Zune users ever get a video service that leverages marketplace?
Who has more muscle here, and who has the better business model? That's going to be fun to watch.
Scott @ May 25th 2007 10:25PM
Interesting timing on this. There's an article on Shoot-edit.com link here: http://shoot-edit.com/index.php/video/comments/in_response_to_hdforindies_thoughts_on_media_post/
that talks about the similarities of the internet killing print, now putting the hurt on the Cable and Broadcast business. Written by someone in the Cable Industry in fact.
Matthew Palkovic @ May 26th 2007 8:25PM
I think bunny ears and a vcr is still the cheapes way to go! :p
Curtis @ May 27th 2007 12:00AM
I just tried Amazon Unbox and wasn't impressed at all. First, I tried to have it download to my Tivo, then I realized that you couldn't start playing until it had downloaded 100%. Then I figured it would be faster to download it to my laptop (802.11g instead of b of tivo) and connect it to my HDTV, well with a 1.5mbps connection it still took like 5 hours and wouldn't let me start playing it for a few hours... Not a good solution for someone looking to watch something in the next 15 minutes...
Joost has been working well with a few hiccups here and there.
Alan Abbey @ May 28th 2007 10:57AM
TVMama.com is the new website that will be covering all of the developments in the PC-TV convergence; "buyshifting" from the terminology of the article. We are conducting a survey of real people and real technology users to see what they really want and what they're really doing. Please click here: http://www.surveymonkey.com/s.aspx?sm=GHu%2f0jn3ihOl2PesYPQ%2fgQ%3d%3d to take the survey. We'll report to you when we have significant data.
nikster @ May 28th 2007 10:38PM
The only thing I watch on TV is sports, and I don't need cable for that, I just go to sports bars when I really want to see something. Downside: Have to leave house. Upside: Social.
You want to watch sports live, as it happens, so the whole "have to be there at a specific time" thing makes perfect sense. For shows or other content it makes absolutely no sense at all. I never understood how people can actually be there in front of their TV at a specific time to watch their favorite show - as if they didn't have enough appointments to keep/remember during the day?!
Most shows I am interested in I have on DVD. But I may shift that to iTunes once it becomes available in this country.
Oh I forgot - some ppl actually watch news on TV. Why I don't know as you can get much better, more accurate and more timely info on demand anywhere on the web. Sans the commercials.
TomK @ May 29th 2007 11:15AM
Not that it matters tremendously for your price grids, but the TVTurnOff fact sheet you link to points out that the average TV is ON for 8hrs, the Average Yank WATCHES for 4.5hrs ... see! w/o all that L&O absorbed over the last 10 seasons, i wouldn't've caught that ... thank you TV! ;-)
TomK @ May 29th 2007 11:19AM
TVTurnOff fact sheet describes TV is *ON* for 8hrs/day but Yanks "only" view 4.5hrs ... see, if not for 10 seasons of Law & Order, i'd've never caught that ... thank you TV!
TomK @ May 29th 2007 11:20AM
:: sigh :: thank you browser cache :-P