Can Apple meet iPhone demand?

Analysts seem to be tripping over themselves telling us how well the iPhone sales are going. In fact, Goldman Sachs is now estimating some 700,000 units were sold in just the first weekend alone. Sweetness to the ears of Apple no doubt. But... look at the retail availability trend above from data harvested off Apple's iPhone locator site. On Saturday June 30th, Apple showed 100% availability at their stores although we know at least some of these were only stocked with 4GB models. On Monday, availability dropped off to 84% and then just 61% as of yesterday, July 2nd. This morning, Apple's only showing a 42% availability across the nation of which we're guessing most are the less sexy 4GB models. We'll have to wait for the stores to open but as far as we know, AT&T has still not managed to restock since selling out in the opening hours. Thus, anyone looking to purchase the device must either order on-line (and wait 2-4 weeks for delivery) or hoof it on down to your "local" Apple store which could be a state (or two) away. Now, depending upon your economic persuasion, this is either good news for Apple since stock isn't rotting on the shelves or bad news as they trend towards a replenishment issue with an inability to post profits in line with consumer demand. Before panicking however, you should note that several stores, particularly in Apple's home of California, who did not have stock yesterday are showing green for Tuesday.

Read -- Goldman Sachs
Read -- Apple's iPhone retail locator

[andrew harrison @ Jul 3rd 2007 4:40AM]

cue the "oh come on engadget enough about the iphone jeez its enough already" flurry of posts.

I wonder if Apple anticipated the seemingly large divide between demand for the 8GB and the 4GB.

[Leonard Nimrod @ Jul 3rd 2007 7:28PM]

What is the issue with you people? You know there you can view Engadget articles without iPhone comments, but you don't. You don't have to select every single iPhone comment, but you do. You don't have to comment how much you hate iPhone comments, but you will. It's seriously annoying. You can filter iPhone comments but I can't filter these dumbass anti-iphone comments, enough already.

[andrew harrison @ Jul 3rd 2007 5:27AM]

@Leonard: I assume that wasn't directed a me, but if it was:

Ummmmm... I agree with you. I think people should just shut up if they don't like the iPhone posts and deal with it.

Hence the "cue the "anti-iphone" flurry" in my post

[jiminizer @ Jul 3rd 2007 7:52AM]

i'm not going to tell engadget what they should and shouldn't blog about

but i have deleted its box off my google homepage because i really have had enough of iPhones

[Leonard Nimrod @ Jul 3rd 2007 7:31PM]

@ andrew harrison,

That was directed at you, but I completely missed the "cue the..." part. My sincerest apologizes.

[chris @ Jul 3rd 2007 4:55AM]

in regards to att stores not being able to restock... I was at an att store waiting at 6pm launch day to buy an iphone. They sold out before I was able to buy one. I then went to an apple store to buy one, and I got one. When i had some difficulty activating my iphone i called att and the woman i spoke to told i had to go into the store to get a credit check (this ended up being untrue and a complete waste of almost 2 hours, but back to the story). So the next day after the iphone launch I go back to the att store that sold out the day before. While i was having my credit check ran... which took all 3 sales associates to do, a package was delivered. The associate who was helping me at the time, took the package, signed for it, left me, and went to the back. He came out of the back room about 2 minutes later trying to hide an iPhone behind his back while making his way to the front counter. He slipped it onto one of the shelfs behind the counter and then returned back to me.

So I am guessing this att store (vallejo, ca), got in a new shipment and this guy took a phone for himself... Thats what it looked like to me anyway.

[Shabbis @ Jul 3rd 2007 12:34PM]

I also had the same experience. I waited in line at an ATT store for four hours, I was number 18 in line. They ran out of 8GBs two people before me. I left the store around 6:15 PM and went home. Then around 11:00 I decided to check out the availability at the Apple store online. All three stores in my area had green lights. I called the closest one and they said they had plenty of 8GBers in stock. Drove down at 11:30 PM and picked one up. Got home, plugged in the phone and had it activated in a about five minutes (I was an existing Cingular customer though).

[chris j @ Jul 3rd 2007 11:25PM]

...i live in ff and the same thing (almost) happened to me. well...the story wasnt exactly the same

[Shaylon Clark @ Jul 3rd 2007 5:00AM]

This is how any product launch SHOULD go. Availability is abundant for the majority of people that are up for buying the device upon launch, and it seems that they won't be too much of an issue to restock. There are some companies that should definitely be taking notes.

[brendan Sheehan jnr @ Jul 3rd 2007 10:28AM]

Will Apple have enough? I didn't even think they would have this much, they handled it pretty well in my opinion.

[Aaron @ Jul 3rd 2007 1:46PM]

I agree.

I didn't want an iPhone but I do think Apple did a great job of making sure everyone who wanted one ASAP on launch could get one. No tales of people getting mugged in the parking lot because supply was short. And I found it especially funny all the eBay sharks left holding the bag, er, iPhone.

Even though I am don't own anything made by Apple (and don't plan to), I still say well done for the way the whole thing was handled. Apple fans should be proud.

[Chris Collins @ Jul 3rd 2007 5:08AM]

Pertaining to the 2-4 week delivery time from the online Apple store, I ordered my iPhone as soon as the clock struck 6pm on June 29th. The emails that followed said it would ship on July 30th! I was like WTF! I was about to cancel and go hunt one down elsewhere, but another email came on Monday stating it would be shipped on July 6th. I can wait a week, but I'll have to wait and see if it's true.

[Leonard Nimrod @ Jul 3rd 2007 7:28PM]

Those who purchased an iPhone online have received email confirmations stating a ship date as early as Friday the 6th.

To me this says that Aople has a nationwide shipment arriving this week to all the Apple and possibly AT&T stores.

[Xavier Gill @ Jul 3rd 2007 5:29AM]

So its been 4 days now and we havent had "THE EPIC ENGADGET IPHONE REVIEW", is it coming today?

[Xavier Gill @ Jul 3rd 2007 5:32AM]

Oops, i see it now.

[Dominic Cordisco @ Jul 3rd 2007 6:11AM]

Yet another Engadget posting that has no substance but useless speculation. It's funny how anti-Apple Engadget has become, as you manage to take an event like the sale of 700,000 iPhones and turn it into a negative thing. Ever since Ryan Block rushed to post that misinformation about the iPhone ship date, whatever journalistic qualities Engadget may have claimed have disappeared.


Cancel my (RSS) subscription.

[seamus d dog @ Jul 3rd 2007 6:57AM]

Oooohhh . . . what a blow to Engadget. Meanwhile, Dominic returns to his role as comic book guy in the Simpsons. News at 11.

[DorianGray @ Jul 3rd 2007 4:51PM]

Ouch. I bet losing you as an RSS subscriber hurts Engadget as much as a dog pulling out an ass-hair when he cleans himself.

Yes. I metaphorically compared you to a dog's ass-hair. How's that for 'journalistic quality'?

[Anto @ Jul 3rd 2007 6:56AM]

I'm guessing that this is a problem that quite a few companies out there would like to have. Oh darn, my product is so in demand I can't make enough of them to keep up! :)
Goes to show what a good product it is, which it is.

[JL @ Jul 3rd 2007 7:12AM]

No, that is a testament to the marketing hype that has been done with regards to the iPhone. Hype sells crap products too..

(Not saying iPhone is crap, just commenting on the state of marketing in this day and age)

[kludge @ Jul 3rd 2007 7:05AM]

Seriously, is this a "BREAKING NEWS"?

[Ivan @ Jul 3rd 2007 7:31AM]

I think we know have proof that the analysts have no basis for their estimation models. I've seen anywhere from 200k to 700k units sold. And since we are basing this on availability, let's not forget about the "controlling" stock game that everyone loves to play. Honestly, 20+% of iPhone users waited until Monday to buy it? Questionable.

[I.M. Yerpappy @ Jul 3rd 2007 8:27AM]

Man, these effin analysts are using the turd count analysis. They sit on the toilet, take a crap and count turds. For every turd they find over four inches long, they make it count for 100,000 iPhones sold.

Why is there such a wide gap in the amount of iPhones sold? Because one analyst had eaten figs, another took some laxative, another had a Wendy's triple, another was training for the hot dog eating contest.

These guys take their turd count then run to their office and then put lots of random numerical data on a huge spreadsheet with charts and everything to show their bosses and explain how they came up with the figures using a mathematical formula they learned in their ivy league college.

So all these figures mean is that each of these analysts are either partially or totalled filled with crap. When the final count comes from Apple, those analysts that missed the count by 200,000 should be fired on the spot.

[halfeatenfish @ Jul 3rd 2007 7:37AM]

One thing that's annoying me about all of these "availablility" studies: Apple's iPhone locator only states whether or not a store has iPhones... it doesn't say HOW MANY iPhones that store may have. As far as we know, some store in the middle of nowhere has 800,000 phones in stock... In other words, these availability stories are completely ignoring the possibility of store-to-store transfers as a way to meet demand in the short term.

How many times have you been to buy shoes and they don't have you size, and the salesperson is like "Well they have some at the blank-blank store. Would you like to go get them or have me get it transferred here?"

I mean, car dealerships do it, department stores do it.... why couldn't Apple??

PLEEEEEEEEEEZE... Can't somebody write one of these articles and fully disclose exactly what the stat is that they are reporting??????

[fred @ Jul 3rd 2007 7:53AM]

My local AT&T store let me order the 8gb model on Sunday, and it's set to deliver to my house today. Something you might ask about if you don't want to sepnd your day hunting all over town. (I only spent half the day Sunday before these guys took pity on me. LOL)

[jaded_u_714 @ Jul 3rd 2007 4:18PM]

I also did the "prepurchase" order from AT&T the night of the 29th since they ran out of the 8GB model. Has anyone heard when they are set to ship? I paid extra to have it overnighted and by god, I want my iphone!! There are no Apple stores even remotely close to where I live, and they assured me my phone would be shipped before the other AT&T and Apple stores are re-stocked. Anybody have the same experience??

[fred @ Jul 3rd 2007 4:22PM]

I have received my iPhone! Activation took all of 5 minutes, and I am up and running! WEEEE!!!

[jilie @ Jul 3rd 2007 8:29AM]

The question is, can aple stand at the iPony fiasco?

[Gopinath @ Jul 3rd 2007 9:06AM]

Is there really so much demand for iPhone? when is it expected to be available in India? There are rumors that Reliance may partner with Apple to release in India...

Tech Thougths

[TQ @ Jul 3rd 2007 9:06AM]

I'd agree except for the fact that the market for the PS3 is nowhere even close to the Apple's market in terms of sheer size. A gaming console is simply not comparable to a mobile device. (By the end of this year alone, half of the world will be accessible on cell phones.)

[Warhorse @ Jul 3rd 2007 9:20AM]

Not only that, it seems that there were many more phones shipped than the PS3. Sony might have had results like this if they had their product ready for sale.

[jim @ Jul 3rd 2007 10:00AM]

Hey early adopters:
Is any download possible from within iPhone?

Doe webpage buttons work?

Is YouTube the only web vid available?
Do embedded vids work?


***********
Hey Engadget, how about offing this forum setup for user/Password? Or am I missing something?

Thanks.

[Buds @ Jul 3rd 2007 10:34AM]

FYI-- I got my iPhone at my local AT&T store on SUNDAY. They had 7 left at the time of purchase and the salesguy told me that they sold over 160 on the first day, ran out, and received a new shipment on SATURDAY. Just thought I'd share my experience.

[gdmedia @ Jul 3rd 2007 12:37PM]

A clerk at my local Apple store yesterday told me that the Apple web page showing availability at stores, posted each night, is not of much value, since it only shows whether or not phones are left over from today, to be sold the next morning. It does not and cannot reflect new shipments that come in during the next day. At this store, he said they got shipments every day -- but not always iPhones in them -- around 10-11AM.

[NevadaJack @ Jul 3rd 2007 11:30AM]

The Apple Store online shows 2-4 weeks but I received email from Apple yesterday saying my iPhone would ship by July 6th with delivery by July 10th. So much for the 2-4 week wait and so called lack of supply.

[mini.boss @ Jul 3rd 2007 10:25AM]

Or apple is just recalling inventory to create a false demand for the product. It's very possible they expected it to sell out first day but now realize that they benefit more by creating a shortage and keeping people like Engadget reporting on it weeks after launch.

[Mark R @ Jul 3rd 2007 9:12PM]

FYI, the "graph" that you posted showing the decline in iPhone availability is misleading. You are using a two-dimensional image (the iPhone) to chart a single dimension (% availability). I know it looks nice, but it's an irresponsible depiction of the data. For showing a single dimension your graph should vary either vertically or horizontally, but not both.


For more information see The Visual Display of Quantitative Information by Edward Tufte.

[Steve @ Jul 3rd 2007 11:20AM]

I went to an AT&T store asking about the plans and to play with an iPhone. They were out of stock, but said they could place the order for NEXT DAY DELIVERY to my home.

Not too shabby. Unless they actually run out of iPhones, as in not having PRODUCED enough, I don't think the lack of stock should be too much trouble.

[vmoney @ Jul 3rd 2007 12:19PM]

i ordered my phone at a cingular store on the first of the month... and the fedex guy just delivered it ten minutes ago...

[valor @ Jul 3rd 2007 1:05PM]

FWIW, the AT&T people I talked to in complaining about my lack of activation told me their servers were trying to process 1,000,000 activations..

[rp @ Jul 3rd 2007 12:48PM]

Not really. Like the other guy said, the market for the PS3 is much much smaller than for the iPhone. EVERYONE has a cell phone these days. 8 year olds have them, 15 year olds have them, 21 year olds, 60 year olds etc etc. Most people I know no longer have a land line because they just use their cell phone.
On the other hand, most women I know don't play video games. Most older people I know don't play video games. Even a lot of guys within the age demographic that are most likely to play video games don't play video games. There is a much smaller market for that type of thing. That's why the Wii is a success, because they aren't marketing solely to the bloody first person shooter crowd. There's still really no reason for most people to go HD either.
So, Apple has a much better shot at it, even if the phone is ridiculously priced. There really isn't a comparison between something that almost everyone uses and something that relatively few people use.

[Keith @ Jul 3rd 2007 2:28PM]

Remember kids, if the iPhone doesn't sell out it is a failure.

...at least that is what the internet said about the PS3.

[jps @ Jul 3rd 2007 3:07PM]

My anecdotal evidence:

My local Apple store in Clarendon (which is a district of Arlington Virginia, which in turn is in spitting distance of Washington DC) had iphones until yesterday. When I checked this morning, Apple's website said they were sold out.

Cue me going in at lunch today to fiddle around with one some more. Salesperson walks over and asks if he can help anyone, to which I reponded with "you don't even have have any to sell right now, do you?" To which he responded: "as of half an hour ago, we do."

So at least in my experience, Apple seems to be doing a good job of replenishing the shelves.

Did anyone really expect a total sell out? Jobs wouldn't promise 3 million being sold without having something to back it up.

FYI: After talking with the salesperson, I immediately left before I reached for my credit card and did something stupid.

[Scott @ Jul 3rd 2007 7:50PM]

Someone at the SoHo store today said that they got more stock today.

[FrankTheCrank @ Jul 3rd 2007 8:21PM]

That wasn't my point....I agree, the phone market and the videogame market are two entirely different things. And yes, more phones(cellular or otherwise) are sold than videogames in total.

My point is that at $500 and $600, there are only so many people that are going to buy the phone. This is true of any product, be it phones, cars or videogame consoles. I think both products are elite products and will only sell a certain amount at that price range. When they burn through those clients, it gets harder to sell'em at that price point.

[Toren @ Jul 4th 2007 6:01AM]

For july 4th, only 18% of Apple Stores will have iPhone in stock (30/164 stores)

[Matt @ Jul 4th 2007 3:08PM]

So on July 4th here in the bay area (oakland to be exact) I cannot find one damn iPhone. Everything is sold out all over here. I love that apple stores don't know whats in a shipment when it comes like some mystery box gets delivered. One thing I think I have not heard discussed is who this iPhone really is for. Apple wanted to go after everyone else other then the business folks. While the smartphone market thrives on business folks there are many who are just not interested. It is those folks that will eventually be purchasing the iPhone as the prices drop over the next several years. So if anyone in the bay are knows where I can get one let me know!

[Tyler @ Jul 5th 2007 1:59AM]

According to the web site, the only Apple stores with iPhones on 7/5 will be:

Oregon
Tigard, Bridgeport Village

Pennsylvania
Pittsburgh, Shadyside